Trouble in Turn2

Wild card, unpredictable, crapshoot or crazy. These are the adjectives used for the fall races at Talladega. The nature of restrictor plate racing definitely increases the chances of wrecks, but is it really such a wild card during the Chase? Consider a few facts. In the last three years the points leader has not changed after the Talladega race. Only 5 Chase drivers have finished 36th or worse in the three fall Talladega races. In 2005 Chasers took 4 of the top 5 spots and 5 of the top 10. In 2006 four Chasers finished in the top 10, and if not for a late Brian Vickers dust up, that number would have climbed to 6 of 10. Maybe it’s not such a crapshoot after all.

It’s a pretty simple reason too. The Chase features the teams with the top cars and drivers. Whether it’s a short track, speedway or restrictor plate car, the top teams usually find a way to run up front. Running up front usually avoids trouble (of course that still didn’t work for Junior and Johnson in 2006) at Talladega. It’s also true that the best drivers also increase their chances of avoiding wrecks. It sounds simple but it’s true. Even at a track like Talladega, avoiding wrecks is a skill. A good driver can read the draft, see a wreck developing and react quicker than lesser drivers. That can not be dismissed.

This year’s race is different for a few reasons. It’s the first time a CoT hits a track longer than 1.3 miles and it’s unknown how well it will work in a large pack. There is also the fact that the racing surface is still relatively new, getting repaved last summer. That combination means that Goodyear could pick a harder tire which could really make for a dull race. As we saw at Daytona in February, a hard tire package left a lot of time for single file, strung out racing. Sure the dramatic finish is what most remember, but the first 180 laps were rather tame. I fear the same scenario could play out on Sunday, where a few cars hit the setup and lead a lot of laps. The finish could very well be wild, but I don’t see a ball of 35 cars tightly packed running around all day.

• 13 active drivers have won a race at Talladega. Dale Earnhardt Jr and Jeff Gordon lead the way with 5 wins each. It’s notable that of the 13 active winners, 6 of them (Terry Labonte, Bill Elliott, Sterling Marlin, Mark Martin, Ken Schrader and James Hylton) are partially retired. I’m not sure how that pertains to Sunday’s race, but anytime you can work James Hylton’s name into a list with Terry Labonte, Bill Elliott and Mark Martin it’s fun.

• David Gilliland won last fall’s pole and essentially tied Gordon for the pole this spring but settled for the front row. Amazingly he is still looking for his first lap led at Talladega. At non-restrictor plate tracks, Gilliland has zero top tens and only 4 top 20 finishes all season. At plate tracks he has finished 8th, 4th, and 11th. The Yates horsepower will again be on display, but how well that translates to the CoT is the big question for Gilliland.

  Meanwhile his teammate this week will be Mike Wallace, who replaces his brother Kenny. Mike Wallace scored an unexpected 5th place finish at Daytona this spring and has 7 career top 10’s at restrictor plate tracks. He is capable and should have better equipment than Phoenix Racing typically affords him.

• There are 51 drivers on the Cup entry list. That is a lot of cars, but imagine starting a race with 60 cars. That’s how many were entered in a 1973 race at Talladega. Not only were they all entered, but they all raced. Granted it wasn’t a restrictor plate race back then, but imagine the sound of 60 cars taking the green flag. David Pearson won the race, lapping the field.

• Dave Blaney has the most starts (13) without a top ten. Greg Biffle is second with 9 starts with no top tens. Biffle has three straight DNF’s at Talladega, but he does have a restrictor plate win, thanks to his 2003 Pepsi 400 triumph.

• Looking for a sleeper at Talladega? How about Casey Mears. He doesn’t have the results to show, but his driver rating in the spring Talladega race was a healthy 90.6 before teammate Jimmie Johnson punted him. He also led 11 laps and held a late lead at the Pepsi 400 before getting shuffled back to 19th.

• Bold prediction of the week: A driver will complain a) about getting taken out by a teammate or b)not getting drafting help from a teammate, and then declare they are no longer really teammates. I told you it was bold.

• Meek prediction of the week: Matt Kenseth will win the race. I haven’t done very well with my predictions all year and I really don’t know how this race will play out. My suspicion is that the tires plus poor handling, poor drafting CoT’s will mean someone will run up front a lot. Kurt Busch has led a ton of laps in several races and could do so again, but in the end the pack will bunch up allowing for several contenders. Kenseth is very good in the draft and has already pushed Kevin Harvick and Jamie McMurray to plate wins in 2007. Now it’s his turn.

Who’s your pick for Sunday?