Trouble in Turn2

The Chase is either 50% full or 50% empty. The answer depends on which driver you ask. Matt Kenseth would probably tell you the season is over and it’s time for Thanksgiving dinner. Kenseth currently resides in the spot normally afforded to the Evernham car that makes the Chase. He sits 12th of 12 Chasers thanks to a 4 race spell that has produced finishes of 35th, 35th, 26th and 34th. If you asked second year driver Clint Bowyer, his response would probably be more optimistic. The way he is running, there is no doubt he is looking forward to the trio of 1.5 mile tracks left on the schedule. Here’s a rundown of the 12 Chasers, how the first half went and how the second half could play out. Be sure to also check out my picks prior the Chase.

1. Jeff Gordon: Life is pretty charmed right now for the #24 car. Two straight wins in dramatic fashion, the points lead and only one finish worse than 5th during the Chase. His low point is an eleventh at Dover, and that’s not very low. Some already want to write his name on the trophy but it is too early. A pit road mistake, a fifty cent parts failure or numerous other things could derail his His next win could come on Sunday at one of his best tracks, Martinsville.

2. Jimmie Johnson: The defending champ has three top fives with a low finish of 14th (Dover, Lowe’s). It’s a pretty good start to the Chase, actually much better than previous years, but he still finds himself 68 points down. That’s still 78 points better than last year, which means he has plenty of time to catch teammate Gordon. He is a threat to win at Martinsville, Atlanta and/or Texas. In other words, this is far from finished.

3. Clint Bowyer: In the first 26 races Bowyer had 0 wins and 2 top 5’s. Bowyer has bested both of those marks with his first career win and two other 2nd place finishes. Even at a race like Talladega where there was concern about the engines, Bowyer and crew chief Gil Martin decided to be conservative and they managed an 11th. With more tracks like Atlanta, Texas, Phoenix and Homestead on the schedule things fit perfectly for Bowyer. If he can pull out a top 15 at Martinsville, that should give him four races to erase 78-100 points.

4. Tony Stewart: If Stewart can score some top fives to make the Chase close, he might look back at the Lowe’s race as the one that kept him in it. With the pit road damage it looked like Stewart was going to finish in the 20’s. With so many cars failing at the end, he snuck into the top ten to gain spots on Johnson and manage the losses to Gordon and Bowyer. He has wins at all five of the remaining tracks and 198 points is not impossible, but he will need a little help.

5. Carl Edwards: Edwards has had a very mediocre Chase. Even when he won the race, he lost 25 points thanks to failing post-race inspection. He was another that stole a top five at Lowe’s thanks to attrition. Edwards is definitely strong at Atlanta and Texas, but he can’t afford any more finishes in the teens from here out.

6. Kyle Busch: He is the perfect example of how bad finishes can hurt more than gathering good finishes. Busch has three top tens, but also has two finishes of 36th or worse. As a result he is 280 points behind. It’s an especially tough situation considering he is leaving in 5 races. He can still win at Texas or Phoenix, or he might lose interest.

7. Kurt Busch: The Chase has not gone as planned for the #2 Dodge. He has led three races but has only one top ten to show for it. Ironically that came at Talladega where he led zero laps. Busch has run very well on a weekly basis nearly all season but has hit a rough patch at the wrong time. He can still win at any of the final five tracks, although Atlanta or Texas is most likely.

8. Kevin Harvick: Let’s be honest, Harvick hasn’t been consistent all year. He has two top tens since Indy and only has 12 all season. Obviously his teammate Bowyer is running very well, but something is not working on the #29 team right now. That said he is still capable of winning at Phoenix.

9. Denny Hamlin: Hamlin’s frustration has seeped through recently and has taken some of the sparkle off his image. First he got into a tiff with Kyle Petty and then got parked for a practice at Talladega. After spending nearly the whole year in the top 5 in points, Hamlin has managed just one top ten result during the Chase. At this point an offseason vacation might be the best idea. Homestead is his best shot to nab a win.

10. Jeff Burton: Burton’s path looks very similar to teammate Harvick. He began the year on fire, but couldn’t regain that pace. A top 5 at Charlotte was a great result, especially after the blown engine at Talladega. He still finds himself mid-pack too much to show a win could happen, although he did win the spring Texas race.

11. Martin Truex Jr: His Chase is a microcosm of the first half of 2007. He has had good cars, nice runs but gets abandoned by the finishes. Dover, Kansas and Talladega all could have reaped more points if not for wrecks and engine failures mostly out of Truex’s control. His consolation is a chance to go back to Phoenix where he has very good in the spring and Homestead where he had a great car in 2006.

12. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth’s last four finishes sound like a quarterback’s audible, “35, 35, 26, 34 hut!” The last time he had three straight races without a top ten was race 12 in 2005 over two seasons ago. Martinsville is not Kenseth’s best track but he does has 2 wins, 13 top 5’s and 18 top 10’s combined at Atlanta, Texas and Phoenix.