Trouble in Turn2

“Two races to go this time by boys!” You can almost hear Larry McReynolds shout something like this. In a year when the Chase format is definitely working, it sure doesn’t feel like it. Maybe it is because the two drivers are teammates, or because no one else is within a sniff of the lead or that the last five races have been won by this duo, but it feels like something is missing. Maybe I haven’t been paying enough attention. I don’t have Speed Channel and prefer to pass on NASCAR Now on ESPN, so maybe I’m missing the excitement. Based on the blogs that I peruse, I don’t think I’m off.

Keep in mind, for me this has nothing to do with Hendrick’s dominance. Right now Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon are both having incredible title-worthy seasons. I am highly impressed with the #48 team’s ability to get to the front and peak at the right time in any race. I don’t know how to prove this (and being the nerd I am, will try to this offseason), but Johnson’s 9 wins in today’s NASCAR might be as, or more impressive than Gordon’s 13 in 1998.

For Gordon’s part, he has 28 top tens and 20 top fives in 34 races. That is not only great consistency, but he is running in the top five every week. He has led the most laps, 1300, and has led 23 of 34 races. If not for a two race slump for the last two weeks, Gordon might have a 60 or 70 point lead right now. I fully expect Gordon to run well and score a top five finish at Phoenix while hopefully closing the gap on Johnson. A 15-20 point gap heading to Homestead would definitely add some juice to the Chase.

Phoenix Notes

• Phoenix is a fun track primarily because the best drivers rise to the top. Of the 12 Chasers, seven have wins, and three others have at least two top fives. Clint Bowyer has one top five in three races and although Martin Truex Jr has not finished as well, he has run in the top five in two of his three races before getting trapped by untimely pit stops. The point is that any of the 12 can run well at Phoenix.

  One of the reasons why the top drivers run well at Phoenix is because it’s a track that requires a lot of driving skill. It’s hard to steal a top 5 at Phoenix by having strong horsepower or unique pit strategy. The racing is tight, making passing very tough. In a race like that the cream rises.

• With his 9th win last weekend, Jimmie Johnson just passed Kevin Harvick for the most money won in 2007. Harvick has only won two races, but they were the Daytona 500 and the similarly lucrative All-Star Race. Two wins at premier events compared to Johnson racking up wins at places with small purses like Martinsville and Atlanta. It sounds strange, but it won’t matter at the end of the season when Johnson will take home a very large check for placing 1st or 2nd in the Chase.

• The Chasers have won 30 of 34 races this year including 8 of 9 during the Chase. Is there any reason why this trend would stop at Phoenix? Of course not. Watch out for Clint Bowyer, but it’s Tony Stewart’s turn. He nearly won in the spring, ran well at the fall races at Richmond and Loudon and that often translates well to Phoenix. Of course I realize by saying all of this that a non-Chaser with zero success at Richmond or Loudon will leap up and snatch the trophy. Just in case that happens, I like Tony Raines. I almost wrote that with a straight face.