Trouble in Turn2

Sam Hornish Jr is coming to NASCAR and if you believe what bloggers say, he has no chance at success. Obviously beginning your Cup career by not qualifying for your first six races is ripe for skepticism, but Hornish has quite a few advantages compared to other open wheel converts.

Penske Power

Of all the recent open wheel imports, Hornish is the guy with potentially the best equipment. Both Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman consistently run in the top ten and with slightly different circumstances could have won 4 or 5 races combined. Compare that to the virgin efforts of Bill Davis and Red Bull at Toyota or the inconsistent outfits at Ganassi and Evernham and it’s pretty clear that Hornish will have room to grow into his equipment rather than the reverse. One point to make here is that Penske’s 3rd car in 2004 and 2005 was a major downer and could remain that way. On the other hand why would they contract in 2006 only to expand again for 2008 unless the team felt more capable of running three cars?

A Good Mentor

When Montoya needed advice he had to rely on two sophomore teammates at the Cup level. Sam Hornish has the luxury of picking the brain of someone who has already made a successful transition, Ryan Newman. Newman came at a younger age, but had a similar learning curve transitioning from USAC to stock cars. Hornish can also tap into Montoya’s and Allmendinger’s experiences from 2007 and learn from some of their bumps and mistakes.

Age

Hornish will turn 28 next July. Excluding A.J. Allmendinger, every open wheel driver is older than 30. Roger Penske can surely afford time to Hornish and that patience could be rewarded later. Most drivers seem to hit their prime sometime in their early to mid 30’s. While Dario Franchitti, Jacques Villeneuve, Patrick Charpentier and even Juan Pablo Montoya are spending their 30’s on a new challenge, Hornish will likely have those years to reach his full potential in a stock car.

Points

This one is still unknown, but if Penske decides to transfer the #2’s points to Hornish’s car it would be a huge step in his stock car growth. Look at Montoya versus Allmendinger this season. A secure Montoya can use every practice for gaining experience and familiarity with stock cars, while Allmendinger has to spend practices doing mock qualifying runs and ensuring the car makes it until Sunday.

Talent

Hornish has 3 IRL titles, an Indy 500 title and 19 career wins. It’s not like he has zero credentials as a driver. It will take time and 2008 has to be considered a transition year, but Hornish may have the best chance of the open wheelers to be a long term star at the Cup level.