Trouble in Turn2

Jeff Gordon’s 2007 was ridiculous. 30 top tens in 36 races, 6 wins, and only one DNF are incredible numbers. He also passed Dale Earnhardt on the career wins list (81), and most restrictor plate wins(12). It was an amazing year that was only curtailed by a disappointing finish in the Chase.

Before we go further, let me say that Gordon was not cheated out of a championship. That’s nonsense to think so. The Chase format was created four seasons ago and all the drivers knew the rules entering each season. Gordon had a spectacular regular season and was nearly as impressive during the Chase. The problem was another driver was better during the final ten races. The Chase is also 27 percent of the season. That’s a bigger slice than the NFL. They have 3 or 4 games compared to 16 regular season contests (15%). In either case, Gordon and the Patriots knew the rules. A remarkable regular season is nice, but the playoffs mean you have to do it again.

In the final four races Gordon was decent but coughed up a lot of points at the end. Meanwhile teammate Jimmie Johnson won four straight races to pass Gordon and clinch the title. In every other year of the Chase, Gordon’s run would have won the Chase, but the beauty of sports is that unpredictable things happen.

Overall Gordon’s 2007 was a special season but it will be almost impossible to duplicate. Part of it is simply regressing to the mean. When you perform far above the normal averages, it won’t likely sustain. Over the course of a season things will usually average out.

Gordon had a lot of things go right in 2007. He won a race at Darlington with an engine that should have expired, but instead kept pouring water and steam until the end. He won another race with a decent, but not great car at Pocono. Crew chief Steve Letarte used pit strategy to outsmart everyone else and put Gordon up front right as the rain ended the race early. He also won both races at Talladega with amazing race-end thrusts to the lead. He ran well every week, and that probably won’t change, but it will be harder to repeat his impressive feats.

The other part is that Gordon typically faces more DNF’s (9 in 2005, 7 in 2006) and that will drain points. In recent years Gordon and the team have also been slow to make, or adapt to, adjustments. In 2005 with the rise in popularity of coil-bound setups, Gordon languished all summer as the team struggled to get Gordon comfortable on intermediate speedways. If Gordon has anything close to a weakness it would be his intermediate speedway program. With a brand new car at this type of track, there’s a very legitimate chance that it takes Gordon a while to get up to speed.

It’s not simply citing 2005 either. Last year in a spectacular season, Gordon and Steve Letarte were slow to change their gameplan in the Chase while Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus were winning 4 straight races with a more aggressive approach. That cost Gordon the title last year.

Despite the potential for a letdown with the 24 team, Gordon has a lot of tracks where top fives are expected. Gordon could show up to Darlington, Martinsville, Loudon or Talladega with a Mini Cooper and find a way to get it to the front. He has also had great success at Bristol and Dover, although he hasn’t won at either track since 2002.

Gordon is strong at enough tracks to make the Chase, especially a field of 12, but if it’s more of a struggle than normal look no further than DNF’s and how he runs at intermediate tracks.