Trouble in Turn2

“He’s one of the best drivers in NASCAR, but…”. It’s probably the most typical (and often accurate) way to begin describing Kurt Busch. He has already won a championship and 17 races in 7 full Cup seasons. He has also stirred up enough trouble to wonder if he has a special Pop-O-Matic-Bubble. He has his group of fans, but he also hears lots of boos at the racetrack. If he were an XFL player, he’d be He Hate Me (of course I dare you to name another XFL player).

He has had repeated run-ins with Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick, Jimmy Spencer, and even his own brother, Kyle. Worse, he’s also tried unsuccessfully to take on NASCAR. It seems like the harder Busch tries to show the soft side of his personality, it backfires on him. When he won a race at Bristol in 2006 on a snowy weekend, he did a snow angel for his victory celebration. It was original, creative and showed a sense of humor. Then he did it again after a Busch win at Texas where the conditions were far from wintry. It’s this type of thing that seems to backfire on Busch.

Some of it is probably due to history of immaturity. As he tries to reinvent himself in a new image, fans fail to see beyond some of his actions like angrily confronting Jimmy Spencer, cursing out NASCAR officials over the radio and refusing to pit, and his wreckless driving arrest and release from Roush Racing. It’s unfortunate, because despite his temper and occasional outbursts, the fact remains that he is one of the elite drivers in NASCAR.

After missing the 2006 Chase, Busch rebounded to win two races and make the Chase last year. Penske as an organiztion showed improvement in an effort to put the dismal 2006 in the past. Busch had several dominant runs, including both of his wins (Pocono, Michigan). He had 13 races with a top 5 driver rating. His season rating was 99.7, fourth best overall. The biggest drag on his point standing was his high number of crashes.

Busch is a top five driving talent, but his equipment and pit crew have let him down on occasions. Of course there have been plenty of races where Busch has let the team down with immature actions as well.

Two examples came this year at Daytona and Dover. Busch led 95 laps at Daytona and along with Tony Stewart was the car to beat. Instead they beat on each other and wrecked. Both drivers downplayed the incident at the time, but the incident smoldered for several months. Then at Dover both drivers again tangled and wrecked. This time the emotions flared up and Busch confronted Stewart in the pits. The problem was that Stewart’s crew was repairing the #20 when Busch approached in his car, nearly crunched one of the crew members, revved the engine and sped off. NASCAR penalized Busch 100 points, but didn’t suspend him.

Busch can win on nearly any track, but he has three tracks where he really shines. He has 5 wins, 5 top 5’s and 9 top 10’s in 14 races at Bristol. Penske was one of the top teams in CoT races in 2007 and that bodes well for Busch at his favorite track. He’s not quite as dominant at Pocono, but it’s not far off. He has 2 wins, 7 top 5’s and 7 top 10’s in 14 races. That includes four top 2 finishes in the last five Pocono events. Busch is also an excellent restrictor plate driver, exhibited by his 92 laps led at Daytona and having a top five driver rating at three of the four ’07 plate events.

Busch will also benefit from a full season with crew chief Pat Tryson. Tryson joined Penske in mid-summer and led the team to two wins in August. That continuity will serve the team well this year and as an added bonus, both Busch and Tryson came from the same Roush Racing background.

Aside from an emotional outburst at some point during the season, the only unknown for the #2 team is how Penske expanding to three teams will affect the organization’s depth. If the move saps personnel and resources away from Busch and Ryan Newman’s teams, then they could stagnate. In reality that is more of a concern for Newman than Busch, who is capable of running in the top five regardless of equipment. He will make the Chase and if he can get good intermediate cars could threaten for the championship.