Trouble in Turn2

What were you doing at 22? Personally I was looking for a job that would pay me more than $12 an hour and wasting my time playing Dr Mario. I was immature, often surly and sarcastic also possessed an overblown sense of entitlement. Meanwhile by the age of 22 Kyle Busch has already drove at the Cup level for three seasons, making the Chase twice and winning four races (but I’m probably better at Nintendo). It’s an important fact to remember about Busch sometimes.

His talent is unquestioned. Sure he sulks, can run his mouth and is often portrayed as everything that’s wrong with NASCAR. For one, that’s giving Busch a little too much credit as some kind of corrosive, evil-genius. Number two, sans the once-in-a-generation driving talent, Busch sounds like a lot of 22-year-olds. The difference is that the majority of his quotes are captured in the public eye, (for sarcastic, surly, 29-year-old bloggers with entitlement issues to write about them) while everyone else gets the luxury of maturing in private, with only friends and family to irritate. This is not pardoning Busch, but instead it’s a plea for perspective regarding Busch.

In his third full season at the Cup level, Busch had a very solid 2007 season. He won the inagural CoT race at Bristol, scored 11 top 5’s, 20 top 10’s, had a 97.8 driver rating and finished 5th in the final Chase standings. Without two crashes that weren’t his fault, he could have finished as high as 3rd in the Chase. Unfortunately most of his achievements were overshadowed by his divorce from Hendrick Motorsports. Once Dale Earnhardt Jr became a free agent, Busch and some of his negatives were suddenly expendable.

Busch wasn’t unemployed long. Joe Gibbs Racing hired him to drive the #18 car and be teammates with Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin. The three form a trio that is almost as formidable as Hendrick’s lineup. In addition to the driver lineup, Gibbs’ switch to Toyota provides the team with unparalleled resources that they would never see with Chevrolet. They went from fighting with three other teams for Chevy’s attention, to the unquestioned flagship team of Toyota. Not a bad move.

Busch is arguably the best driver on the flat, tight tracks like Richmond (5 top 5’s in 6 races), Phoenix (1 win, 4 top 10’s in 6 starts), and Loudon (1 win, 3 top 5’s in 6 starts). A win at one of these three tracks is a good bet in 2008. Busch also excels at Bristol and Dover. He also has had several strong runs on intermediate tracks like California, Las Vegas, Charlotte and Texas although the finishes have not always been there. The tracks that have tripped him up so far include Darlington, Talladega and Atlanta. Some of it is circumstances rather than Busch simply struggling at these tracks.

So Busch begins a new era in 2008 with Gibbs and Toyota. He will again be in top notch equipment and have high profile teammates. It’s nothing new for the 22-year-old ace. Add in his high driver ratings and Busch and his team have all the tools to not only make the Chase, but threaten for a Cup. It’s also time for “Shrub” to reel in more wins, so that number will jump to 3 or 4. He might come up just short in the 2008 championship race while some of the wrinkles get straightened out, but I stand by a prediction I made last year: He will win a championship within his first five years.