Trouble in Turn2

If there was one driver last year that wanted the season to stretch past Homestead it was Matt Kenseth. Five top 5’s in the final five races including a commanding win at Homestead where he led 216 of 267 laps meant the #17 was hitting their stride.

The strong finish capped an interesting season for Kenseth. He won two races, made the Chase with ease, and had more top 10’s (22) than his stellar 2006(21), but something wasn’t quite right with Roush. His driver rating was 7th best, highlighting the fact that Kenseth and his Ford teammates had little chance of competing with the Chevrolets for most of the season.

One of the biggest problems was the Car of Tomorrow. Kenseth’s average finish was significantly worse in the CoT compared to the old car. The team admitted it didn’t test as much as other Cup teams and the initial results reflected that. By the summer, the organization had regained most of the ground they had lost, but with the CoT featuring exclusively in 2008, they cannot afford similar stumbles.

Prior to the end of 2007, Roush promoted crew chief Robbie Reiser to general manager. That leaves Chip Bolin as the crew chief of the #17 team and the dropoff won’t be much. The team is championship caliber. Like teams in any sport, the top ones will almost always have depth, adjust and compensate for any changes. The change also means Reiser can take his excellent organizational skills to the entire company.

Kenseth is a threat to win at most speedway tracks, is a very underrated plate racer and also excels at shorter tracks like Bristol, Dover, Loudon and Phoenix. He has two wins at Las Vegas and five top 10’s in 8 career starts. If there was one track that fits Kenseth like a leather couch it would be Michigan. In 17 starts he has 2 wins, 7 top 5’s and 11 top 10’s and an average finish of 9.8.

From a Fantasy perspective, it’s best not to play Kenseth at road courses. He has zero top 10’s at Sonoma and an average finish of 23.5. Watkins Glen is a little bit better, but it’s far from comfortable for Kenseth. Other tracks to avoid include places like Darlington, Pocono and Martinsville. He has top fives at each of these tracks, but his record is spotty.

Kenseth might not win as much as Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon or Tony Stewart, but he cranks out just as many top fives and top tens on a yearly basis. He and Johnson are the only two drivers to make the Chase every year, and there’s no reason why that will stop in 2008. 2 wins, 12 top fives and 18-20 top tens might seem like a special season, but then you realize that’s standard fare for Kenseth.