Trouble in Turn2

So far in 2008 testing and practices, the Joe Gibbs Toyotas have set up residency at the top of the speed charts. It’s a little surprising, but it shouldn’t be. The Gibbs team features three top drivers and the equipment has been top notch for almost a decade. It’s not really a big difference. The same goes for driver Tony Stewart. He has been one of the top drivers in Cup for the last decade whether he’s driving a Pontiac, Chevrolet, Toyota or Kia (note: he hasn’t driven a Kia…yet). Switching manufacturers won’t change that. Tony Stewart will again be one of the top candidates to win the Cup (Winston, Nextel, Sprint or otherwise).

Off the track few people are more generous and selfless than Stewart. He donates to a variety of projects and charities and often has a personal involvement over simply cutting a check. On the track is a personality with the volatility of a third-world market. One week he will call out NASCAR’s integrity and skip the post-race interview, the next he will be elated for taking second to Bobby Labonte in a Busch race. It’s not hypocritical, it’s simply a complex person that is one of the most competitive drivers in the sport.

Emotions and actions aside, Stewart is also one of the greatest drivers in the sport. He has won 2 Championships, 32 races, 2 Brickyard 400’s, and has scored 119 top 5’s and 191 top 10’s in 320 career starts. 37 percent of his starts ended with Stewart in the top 5. Factor that number plus his 1067 average laps led per season, and it’s obvious that Stewart is always competing for wins. There are only four Cup tracks he hasn’t won at, and one of those is Talladega where he has done everything but win. A common belief is that Stewart always finishes seasons with a flurry. The truth is he is usually good at any point in the season.

One of the biggest reasons for Stewart’s success is found in his crew chief Greg Zipadelli. The two have been together since Stewart’s rookie season, which is the longest running driver-crew chief tandem in the sport. Zipadelli is the steady influence that gets Stewart’s attention. Gibbs Racing also has one of the lowest employee turnover rates in NASCAR, lending more stability. On a side note, it’s amazing that teams trying to find the success of Gibbs and Hendrick constantly miss the fact that Stewart and Jimmie Johnson are successful in large part because of their relationships with their crew chiefs. Instead teams shuffle their lineups, or point the finger at other reasons like technology or money.

Although Stewart will have problems and likely be fined this year (he was placed on probation prior to the first official race!), it won’t derail his successful bid for the Chase. He is too good at too many tracks. The Toyota transition will not be an issue as a whole. There might be a rough patch where the team faces a bad setup, faulty parts or isn’t as fast as other manufacturers, but that happens to nearly every team. The trick will be whether the cars’ handling can match the outstanding horsepower.

Stewart runs well everywhere and is certainly capable of winning any race. His best tracks are Chicago, Indianapolis, Richmond and Talladega. Watkins Glen and Sonoma also showcase Stewart’s driving ability and just how complete of a driver he is. That doesn’t mean every track produces the same results. He hasn’t seen consistent success at Darlington, Homestead (since it was reconfigured), and Fontana. Bristol is another track that is hit or miss for the #20 car. It’s almost arbitrary how Stewart runs at the high-banked concrete jungle.

Taking his three year average Stewart’s numbers come out to 4 wins, 14 top 5’s and 22 top 10’s. All are realistic for Stewart in 2008 and that will easily put him in position for a strong Chase run in the fall.