The Top 35 Game
Mediocre teams, consider this your official warning. Toyota was very gracious in their debut to Cup in 2007. It took all season for the cars to literally get up to speed and cost everyone save Dave Blaney a chance at the top 35. 2008 will be different and that means several Camrys will be ready to shake teams from their cozy perches. Teams like Yates Racing, Haas-CNC, Hall of Fame, Petty Enterprises and Robby Gordon have smaller margins for error. It places a greater emphasis on the first 5 races than the rest of the year. The longer you can stay inside the top 35 the better, because those outside the top 35 are likely to miss a race or two.
Last year after Bristol three new teams displaced three others in the top 35. That could certainly happen again this year. Joe Nemecheck, Johnny Sauter and Sterling Marlin all cracked the top 35 with relative ease. Nemechek scored a top ten at Daytona and a 14th at California which were more than enough to cover his 38th at Las Vegas and a DNQ at Bristol. Add in a 17th at Atlanta, and that’s a decent five races, but far from spectacular. That illustrates how tenuous the line between an easy Friday qualifying run and a tense, nail-biting session.
So who will lose their coveted top 35 spot? What cars will swoop in to grab a guaranteed starting spot? Let’s look at the candidates (in order of likeliness).
Inside the bubble-For now
#45 Kyle Petty-Petty teetered on the magical line in 2006 and 2007. A slow start to 2008 could be big trouble. Losing a guaranteed starting spot could also have ramifications for the team if Petty leaves the car in the summer again.
#38 David Gilliland-Gilliland is too often found near the back of the pack. Spending time at the back increases the chances of getting collected in someone else’s wreck. Yates cars might run better this year with more help from Roush, but no one knows if Gilliland is the man to wheel it.
#77 Sam Hornish Jr-Hornish is safe for the first 5 races and must gain all the points possible. That means playing it safe, staying on track and completing as many laps as possible. The equipment should be good enough, but Hornish is still a stock car newbie.
#7 Robby Gordon-Gordon has not scored a top 10 in the first five races since 2003. He has three career top tens at the first five tracks. That might not be enough this year with so many other cars chomping at the bit to take his spot. Gordon is also prone to lapses in judgment that often end in bad results.
#28Travis Kvapil-Kvapil returns to the Cup scene in the second Yates car. He is good enough to keep the car inside the top 35, but Yates cars still have a lot to prove on the intermediate tracks. With three of the first five races on 1.5 and 2 mile tracks, Yates needs to bring something to the party if the #28 wants to keep its spot.
#22 Dave Blaney/ #66 Scott Riggs-Both drivers start exactly where they began 2007. Inside the top 35 with the hopes of a better season. Both should have better years, but a few early DNF’s could quickly put them in trouble again.
#01 Regan Smith-We’ll quickly see if the DEI/RCR engine package has worked the kinks out. Smith did well keeping the #01 out of trouble last season, but as the fourth (and currently unsponsored) DEI car, it’s the most likely candidate. Smith does have a very big ace in the hole with Doug Richert as his crew chief.
Standing outside waiting to pounce
#2 Kurt Busch-Sacrificing his top 35 spot for Sam Hornish Jr is a lot easier when you are still guaranteed to make the first five races. Busch will score at least one top 10 in the first five races and easily make the top 35 after Bristol. He’s also one of the best qualifiers on the circuit, which also has an effect on some other cars on this list.
#44 Dale Jarrett (David Reutimann after Martinsville)-As long as Busch makes races on speed, which he should, Jarrett is free to use his past champion provisional. With Toyota’s engine improvements that might be unneccessary. As long as Jarrett can run mid-pack instead of turning laps at the back, he will set the #44 car up for a big improvement over last year.
#00 David Reutimann -Reutimann did an excellent job qualifying last season, but his racing luck abandoned him on race day. He wrecked in three of the first four races. By the end of the year he was running more competitively and 2008 promises to be better all around. Getting the #00 inside the top 35 would mark a huge boost for MWR as they transition that car to Michael McDowell after Martinsville.
#55 Michael Waltrip-Skip the jokes, Waltrip needs to start the season off by making some races. He did win a pole at Talladega and ran well in other races. It’s time to prove to people, and maybe most importantly NAPA, that he can still drive at a high level. I think he can, but the top 35 might be too tall an order.
#21 Bill Elliott-Elliott also has a past champion provisional, but will have to rely on both Kurt Busch and Dale Jarrett making races on speed in order to utilize it. Elliott did an excellent job in 2007 of making races on speed, but couldn’t quite get the results to return to the top 35.
#78 Joe Nemechek-Front Row Joe could be a dark horse. He took a new car in 2007 and jumped into a guaranteed spot. He is a great qualifier and Furniture Row will again have Hendrick engines. It’s hard to see Furniture Row having the cars to back up Nemechek’s qualifying prowess, but getting in the races is the first step.
#84 AJ Allmendinger-Over the course of 2007, Allmendinger improved on a similar plane as Toyota’s cars improved. He is still looking for his first Cup top ten finish. It’s possible everything falls into place for him in his second season and he takes off in the revamped Camry, but it’s still a long shot to beat out the other more experienced Toyota teams.
#10 Patrick Carpentier-Give credit to Carpentier for making the final two races of the season in the #10 car. Evernham’s teams will be at least in the ballpark this season, but Carpentier faces a very tall task to make the first five races on speed. Beyond qualifying for races, Carpentier would have to post some decent finishes. For a stock car newcomer, that could be tough.
#27 Jacques Villeneuve-Bill Davis Racing had a horrific time getting their second car up to speed last year. Villeneuve did qualify for two events last fall, but it’s hard to see things change too much this year. It’s also confusing that Villeneuve wasn’t promised any starts beyond Bristol. It’s a little hard to believe the team is fully committed to cracking the top 35 with that approach.
For what it’s worth, I think three cars will be displaced inside the top 35 after Bristol. Tell me who you think is in and out?
January 11th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Gonna be a brutal year for those guys, that’s for sure.
January 11th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
After the first five races, I predict that Sam hornish (because he hasn’t shown anything yet), Travis Kvapil, and either Gilland or Kyle Petty will be outside the top 35. I don’t even know how Petty even survived to stay in the top 35.
Moving in to the top 35, one of the red bull racing cars and Kurt Busch.
One question, you didn’t mention #15 Paul Menard, he has to step up this year and use that gift he received because of the DEI/Ginn Racing merger.
Martinsville is the key for these drivers period.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
“One question, you didn’t mention #15 Paul Menard, he has to step up this year and use that gift he received because of the DEI/Ginn Racing merger.”
Menard certainly didn’t run well last year even after the transfer of owners points (and you’re right, they arrived in a very pretty box with a bow). I think he will be better this year, kind of like he did in the Busch Series where it took him about a year and half to get going. He is certainly capable of some bad runs, but I thought he would be able to post a few top 20’s (he’s decent at plate tracks, California and Atlanta) in the first 5 and at least keep clear of the trouble.
January 12th, 2008 at 10:14 pm
I think Kyle Petty, Sam Hornish, and Scott Riggs will be out of it.
Making into the top 35 will be Brian Vickers, Michael Waltrip, and Bill Elliott.
Well it looks like we are down one team now that the Grimm Reaper has visited Morgan McClure, but you have to wonder if a couple of more teams wont get the visit before too long making qualifying easier.
Don’t get me wrong I hate seeing teams die especially ones that have bee around like MM, but something has to give.
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:02 am
Actually, I believe Kurt Busch is still “inside the bubble” despite giving up his owner points in favor of Hornish. He’s still got the Past Champion’s Provisional working in his favor, unless of course, he and Dale Jarrett both happen to fail to qualify based on time during the same week … in which case, he would only need to beat DJ to qualify for that race.
Also, to John D … you can probably forget about Bill Elliott making it into the top 35 at any point in the season.
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:17 pm
Tim, technically Busch is outside the top 35, but will obviously make the first five races. It’s still worth noting because he will bump someone else out of the top 35. Busch will always trump Jarrett because the provisional goes to the most recent champ. Jarrett would also trump Bill Elliott or Terry Labonte (I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes a start or two).
March 11th, 2008 at 12:06 am
[…] in conjunction with their cars. With only one race to go before 2008 owner points take effect, the top 35 picture is taking shape. For new teams inside the top 35 it means a guaranteed starting spot. Likewise, the […]