Trouble in Turn2

Juan Pablo Montoya entered NASCAR in 2007 with an accomplished racing resume, but only one Cup start and a handful of other scattered stock car races. It was considered a great experiment by Chip Ganassi. Could an open wheel driver succeed in the less precise, more grueling world of stock car racing? Montoya answered that question with an emphatic yes. The bigger question now is, “Can he win on an oval?”

He won his first race at the Mexico City Busch race in the first two months of the season. He scored his first Cup top 5 at Atlanta in race 4 and won his first Cup race at Sonoma in June. He also finished 2nd at the Brickyard 400 at a track where he won in Indy cars 7 years earlier. In the most telling sign that he had arrived as a stock car driver, Montoya got into a yelling and shoving match with Kevin Harvick the next week at Watkins Glen.

Overall Montoya’s season was a pretty typical rookie effort. He had some nice runs mixed in with several disappointing ones. He only had 4 DNF’s, all due to crashes, but did have 10 sub-30 finishes. He won a race, but everyone including Montoya conceded that real progress will be measured on the ovals.

The road courses were an obvious strength so it was no surprise when he won both the Mexico City and Sonoma races. Beyond those two races he also had nice runs at Atlanta, Texas, Indianapolis and Dover. Maybe the most impressive finish was his 8th place run at Martinsville. Few tracks pose a more physical challenge than the tiny paperclip-shaped track. The fact that Montoya survived the beating and banging and avoided the carnage to post a good finish is more impressive than winning a road course or running well on a wide open track like Atlanta or Texas.

Montoya quickly proved himself as a good qualifier. He had 8 top ten starts including a season best 2nd achieved at Indianapolis, Bristol and Dover. Whether by design or plain rookie inexperience, Montoya almost always dropped out of the top 10 in these races.

Aside from his obvious ability on road courses, Montoya also found success at 1.5 mile tracks, most notably Atlanta. He scored top tens in both the Busch and Cup series’. Texas and Indianapolis comprised his other speedway top tens.

Ganassi said he expects Montoya to make the Chase. Maybe that’s a source of motivation or inspiration for Montoya and his crew, but don’t count on it. Montoya’s driver rating was 67.7 for the 2007 season. He also only had 6 top 10 finishes. He needs to seriously improve both of those numbers (85.0 rating and 12-15 top 10’s) before the Chase is a real option.

Considering the equipment Ganassi has had in recent years, the Chase will not happen. Ganassi and the Dodges as a whole need serious improvement. While the speedway program improved, their short track CoT game was off. Now the CoT runs full time in 2008 and it’s hard to imagine the company catching any of the top teams car-wise.

Montoya is sure to improve in year two of stock car racing. His knowledge and comfort of the cars and what adjustments to ask for will allow for more consistent runs. The biggest concern for Montoya might be his aggressive, sometimes stubborn approach. The closer to the front he runs, the more respect and patience he will have to display. If he doesn’t heed to the other top drivers, he won’t last long up front before someone. Ganassi obviously disagrees, but Montoya is not ready to challenge the top drivers on a weekly basis and Ganassi doesn’t have the tools in place yet either. Improving his final point standing to the upper teens is possible. For the answer to the biggest question regarding an oval win, it’s a “not this year”.