Trouble in Turn2

Rebound. That’s the big buzz word for Kasey Kahne and the #9 team entering 2008. It not only describes his on track performance but also his public image. On the track Kasey Kahne didn’t win a race, scored his first top 5 in August and had only 8 top 10’s all season. He was usually fast on Fridays, but would sink like a mob-hit victim in concrete shoes on Sundays.

His off track image also took a few hits. Kahne appeared entitled at times during the 2007 season. At Richmond he got into a wreck with David Stremme and then blamed Stremme for the crash while taking personal shots at Stremme’s physique. He also insinuated intentionally crashing at Phoenix late in the year. The incident that made the most news was a run-in with a security guard at Homestead. The details are unclear, but the result was a pending lawsuit that claims Kahne shoved the security guard to the ground. Not exactly the squeaky clean, boy-next-door image Kahne had developed in his first three Cup seasons.

The season began on a good note. Kasey Kahne and Elliott Sadler both scored top 10’s at Daytona. When the Cup teams hit the intermediate tracks it was discovered that the Everham cars had miscalculated the baseline when building their speedway cars. This meant the cars were a handful and rendered uncompetitive. So Kahne and teammates Elliott Sadler and Scott Riggs spent the bulk of 2007 turning laps instead of running at the front of the pack.

Evernham was able to at least solve some of the issues on the #9 car and by late summer Kahne was again running in the top ten. His best effort came at Bristol when he dominated. Winning the pole, leading 305 laps and finishing 2nd to Carl Edwards. Of his 8 top ten finishes, 6 came in the final 12 races, including four on intermediate tracks.

Kahne has a lot of positives to cling to entering 2008. His team director Kenny Francis returns for the third straight season. The two won 6 races together in 2006 and obviously have a good understanding. Ray Evernham also has a new, more specialized role at GEM. Instead of trying to do everything at the company, Evernham can now focus on the competition aspect of the company. That means he is free to float among the different departments and address specific problems. All three cars should enjoy this benefit, none more than Kahne’s ride. Another positive is the added funding that new sponsor Budweiser will contribute.

Which way will GEM go in ’08? Given that it’s an even year, Kasey Kahne figures to have a nice season. In ’04 and ’06 Kahne averaged 12.5 top 5’s and 16.5 top 10’s. In ’05 and ’07 his averages were 3 top 5’s and 8 top 10’s. Given the small sample size it says two things. One, it’s probably not a very reliable predictor, but also that Evernham has typically been slow to adapt to changes. 2005 was the introduction of the new aero-package and 2007 was the CoT. 2008 is another year of change with the CoT going full time plus Dodge’s introduction of a new engine midseason. That means Kahne sustaining success is no sure thing. He is still growing as a driver, but his wheelhouse for success stems from intermediate tracks. This program is more reliant on equipment than any other piece of the NASCAR schedule. That means his success is more closely tied to GEM than Sadler’s or Carpentier’s might be. His best speedway tracks are Atlanta, Michigan, and California, but he is also a front runner at Bristol, Darlington and especially Richmond. Since his rookie year, Kahne has also been one of the best qualifiers in Cup. That continued in 2007 when he scored two poles and had an average start of 14.3. A reasonable prediction for Kahne is 1 win, 9-10 top 5’s, and 12-14 top 10’s. Matching his 6 win season of two years ago will be tough, but he will be in the mix for a Chase spot. The keys will be the team’s speedway program and how Kahne does on the other tracks like short tracks and road courses.