Trouble in Turn2

It seems like Jamie McMurray enters each season with the hopes of a breakthrough season. Is he finally ready for a breakthrough? Or has he simply reached the peak of his skills? First some numbers.

His first three Cup seasons he spent with Chip Ganassi Racing (with Felix Sabates-Target-Kitchen Sink-Motorsports). Ganassi’s equipment was widely recognized as second rate compared to the powerhouse teams like Hendrick, Gibbs and Roush Racing. The logic said if McMurray can do a good job with mediocre resources, he would be great at one of the top teams, like Roush Racing. He’s now entering year three with a top team and the results have stayed the same. Excluding his excellent 2004, his numbers are the same from year to year.

The confounding part is that McMurray is truly talented. He is equally adept at road courses as he is plate races or short tracks. In fact he has scored at least one top ten at every Cup track except Phoenix. Some of his best tracks are difficult tracks like Darlington, Dover and Bristol. Yet somehow McMurray struggles to consistently run in the top 5 and top 10. **It’s not even a matter of running well and finishing poorly. He simply has too many races where the car doesn’t run well. He has 703 career laps led over six seasons. That total is fewer than four drivers led in 2007 alone.

This preview isn’t meant to simply knock McMurray. He had a lot of good runs in 2007. The highlight of the season was his win at the summer race at Daytona. It was a dramatic finish that gave McMurray his first win since that shocking victory in 2002 when he filled in for an injured Sterling Marlin at Charlotte. The Daytona win was a reminder of McMurray’s talent. Despite his numbers at plate races, he is one of the better drivers at Daytona and Talladega. He is always near the front of the pack and works the draft well.

McMurray’s greatest weakness is his lack of consistency. After his Daytona high point, he finished 26th or worse in 6 of the next 7 races. Any Chase notions were quickly dashed. He finished on the lead lap 17 times.

Entering the 2008 season, McMurray needs to find a comfort level in the CoT. His average finish in the old car was 20.7 compared to 24.0 in the CoT. Obviously the CoT is the exclusive car model of 2008, so McMurray and crew chief Larry Carter must impove their approach to the boxier CoT. The good news is that McMurray has all the tools to improve his status. He has the deep resources, equipment and information that Roush Racing provides. His driving talent is proven, especially at tracks like California, Martinsville, Texas and Charlotte. He also retains crew chief Carter. It’s that kind of consistency that can only help the #26 car. Can he make the Chase? He certainly has the potential, but it’s hard to see it happening. Look at the drivers that made the Chase last year. There are probably only three or four that he is potentially better than, and then include other drivers like Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Kasey Kahne, and suddenly the Chase looks like a very crowded, and unlikely option for McMurray.