Trouble in Turn2

81 races and counting. That’s the running total on Ryan Newman’s win drought at the Cup level. It’s part of a downward trend in Newman’s short Cup career. He won 8 races in 2003. 2 in 2004, 1 in 2005 and zero in each of the past two seasons. After making the first two versions of the Chase, Newman has been absent from the past two playoff sessions.

Despite his declining win totals, Newman is still most often found near the front of the pack. He came agonizingly close to winning several races in 2007. Starting from the pole at Dover, he led 135 laps, but finished second to a dominant Martin Truex Jr. He won the pole again the next week at Pocono and was within one turn of taking the lead from Jeff Gordon when NASCAR called the race due to rain. He also nearly won at Charlotte before he blew a tire while leading the race with less than 50 laps to go.

The biggest achilles heel for the #12 team is the high number of bad finishes. Newman had 10 finishes of 30th or worse. 4 of these kinds of results came in the first 8 races of the season, putting Newman in a big hole. Newman is a top 12-caliber driver, but he needs to do better to avoid crashes. There are races where Newman will really struggle with a setup and that usually ends up in a bad finish in the 30’s instead of just a disappointing finish somewhere in the high teens or twenties.

The other element to Newman’s high DNF count was 5 engine failures. It’s surprising since the team had zero engine failures in 2006. Traditionally Penske has had strong, reliable horsepower and this problem will surely be temporary.

Penske does not lack for anything resource-wise (Proposed plans to build their own test track!). The problem is getting everyone on the same page. Look at the failed Intrepid/Charger experiment in 2006. That kind of distraction set the team back for an entire year. Things went better in 2007, especially with the CoT. Newman had a 13.3 average finish in the 16 races featuring the boxier new model. Part of this is probably due to Newman’s strength at tracks 1 mile and under, but the fact that he can run well in the new car is a good sign.

The company cleaned things up in 2007, but now there is a third team to incorporate into the Penske system. That will pull resources and personnel away from the #2 and #12 teams. Is Penske deep enough to handle the changes? The other pressing question is how will Newman and new crew chief Roy McCauley click? McCauley was previously with Kurt Busch and the #2 team, but took most of 2007 off to tend to a family emergency. Thankfully he’s back and his chemistry with Newman will be key. After spending his first four plus seasons with Matt Borland, Newman is now on his third crew chief in two years.

Newman is a threat to win the pole at any intermediate speedway, especially Atlanta and Charlotte. He has 42 career poles in six years, with seven each at Atlanta and Charlotte. Unfortunately he has only won from the pole three times. Of his 42 poles, only 22 have led to top ten finishes.

When it comes to winning races, Newman is a pretty well rounded driver. He has scored top 5’s at every race track except Homestead, but there are a handful of tracks where Newman especially shines. At Dover Newman has 3 wins, 6 top 5’s, and 8 top 10’s in only 12 career races. That’s an impressive line, but his Loudon numbers are almost as good (2 wins, 5 tip 5’s, 9 top 10’s, 4 poles). Pocono and Michigan also represent tracks where Newman is capable of winning.

Newman can make the Chase in 2008. He doesn’t even need to win a race, but that’s probably on his personal checklist. In order for the Chase to be reality, Newman needs to straighten a few things out. Priority one is reducing the number of sub-30 finishes by at least 50%. It’s better to settle for a 20th place finish than wrecking. Penske also must do their part to true up the engine program and make sure Newman has the top 5 and top 10 cars he expects. If he can tighten up his finishes, increase his top 5’s by three or four, the Chase is a real possibility for 2008. After that, wins will be icing on the cake.