Trouble in Turn2

The most common phrases people use to describe second-year Cup driver Denny Hamlin are things like, “He can’t keep this up,” or “just wait for the letdown”. After two straight Chase berths and three Cup wins, what if the letdown never comes? What if Hamlin is simply one of the top Cup drivers?

Based on his disappointing 12th place finish, it might look like Hamlin regressed from his 3rd place finish in 2006, but that’s not true at all. His 97.0 driver rating and 918 laps led proved he was a front runner. In 2006 Hamlin was more often avoiding trouble and compiling strong finishes. It was a sound strategy for a rookie and Hamlin raised the bar last year.

Hamlin only won one race (Loudon) in 2007, but he could have easily won four or five. Hamlin had good runs at Bristol, Phoenix, Talladega, Darlington, Pocono only to see wins slip through his fingers in one way or another. At Bristol it was a faulty oil pump cable. He was class of the field at Phoenix, Darlington and Pocono only to lose on a pit road speeding penalty, a bad pit stop and rain respectively. He ran out of gas at Talladega due to a questionably long caution period. And in the most bizarre race of the season, Hamlin lost the lead at Atlanta when his car sputtered on the penultimate restart due to water in the fuel tank.

Hamlin and crew chief Mike Ford enter their third season together and probably will stick to their regular gameplan, which means keeping things simple, avoiding trouble and not making silly mistakes. Based on preseason testing, any concerns about Joe Gibbs Racing’s switch to Toyota should be quelled. Hamlin and teammates Kyle Busch and Tony Stewart were all near the top of the speed charts. The combination of the Gibbs’ organization’s knowledge and Toyota’s resources and engineering is going to make a lot of horsepower and speed.

Hamlin’s favored tracks are the short, tight tracks like Phoenix, Loudon, Richmond and Martinsville. He takes great pride in his Virginian roots and a win at Richmond or Martinsville would be very popular. Based on his results at the two tracks, that win is likely to come this year. He has seven top tens and two poles in 9 total races at the two Virginia tracks. Hamlin also runs well at Texas, California and Pocono. In fact Hamlin has been downright dominant at Pocono. In his four Cup starts he has 2 wins, 3 top 5’s and 4 top tens plus 283 laps led.

Hamlin is capable of success at nearly any track, but he also showed an emotional side in 2007 that proved costly on several occasions. At Daytona, he got together with teammate Tony Stewart and both wrecked while running 1st and 2nd. That led to both drivers blaming the other and ended with both being called into the boss’ office. Later in the year Hamlin tangled with Kyle Petty at Dover. After the race he refused to accept responsibility for the crash, despite both drivers being at least partially culpable. Not only did the incidents scuff his reputation, but they also were the worst finishes of the year. It’s hard enough to avoid bad results without exacerbating the situation. That goes double in the Chase.

Based on what Toyota has shown so far, Hamlin has a great chance to make the Chase again. Hamlin is good enough at most tracks that he will be in position to compete for wins. There is no reason why Hamlin will miss the Chase, but strange things happen in NASCAR–especially how competitive this year promises to be. Hamlin should win a race or two, score 8 to 10 top 5’s and be in the hunt for a Chase spot.