Trouble in Turn2

Martin Truex Jr’s breakout 2007 season appeared to many as an overnight sensation, but his path to the Chase really began in September of 2006. That’s when he started popping into the top 10 on a consistent basis and that ran right into the following year.

It’s easy to think the tipping point came at Dover when Truex won his first career Cup race, but the truth is the payoff came two weeks earlier when he won the All-Star challenge at Lowe’s. Prior to that race, Truex had consistently run well for most of the year and good chunks of 2006, but lacked the end product. Sure the win was an undercard for an exhibition race, but in a way it realized the potential of the team. That began a run of four top 3 finishes in the four races from Dover to Loudon that launched him into the Chase.

Most of the attention for Truex was initially all related to Dale Earnhardt Jr’s departure. Then it turned to stories about Truex becoming the new leader of DEI, and by the end of the year Truex was making headlines for his weekly successes on the track.

The point standings don’t give the full picture for how improved Truex and the #1 team were in 2007. He spent 89 percent of the laps on the lead lap. Only Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth were better. That means when Truex was on the track, he was running for positions. His 13.6 average running position was 9th best.

Truex achieved success despite several bad results out of his control. The midseason engine merger with DEI and RCR didn’t help any of the DEI teams and Truex suffered two of his three engine DNF’s after the merger. He lost a strong run at Chicago (started 2nd, 12 laps led) due to a sour engine. Later he had another strong car at Talladega before a wave of engine failures wiped out not only the #1, but almost all of the seven cars equipped with the DEI/RCR engine. He was the class of the Atlanta field, leading 135 laps but got caught up in a wreck with Denny Hamlin on a restart.

Two of the better tracks for Truex are the two Northeast stalwarts, Loudon and Dover. Aside from his June Dover win, he also has 3 top 5’s and 4 top 10’s in 8 combined career starts. Texas, Atlanta and Michigan have also reaped good results, and Truex is especially strong at Texas where he won the pole in the fall race. If he can get enough drafting help, Truex is also a proven talent at Talladega and Daytona too.

Maybe the biggest surprise is Truex’s lack of success at short tracks. He has zero top tens in 12 short track starts. It’s surprising because of how well Truex ran in the Busch Series. He had 3 short track wins and 6 top 5’s in 15 Busch starts. The short track drought will end at the Cup level too.

Truex and crew chief Bono Manion have been together for four years and that has created a solid base for the #1 team. It took almost all of 2006 to build their Cup notebook, but they are now a team that shows up on a weekly basis with cars that can qualify well, run well and best of all, Truex can finish well. Now if they got some racing luck thrown in, Truex could be a major force. One trait of Manion is his willingness to gamble. Manion left Truex out at Phoenix and Homestead in the hopes of stealing wins with track position. Neither instance turned into a win, but that attitude could be a benefit in future situations.

The biggest question facing Truex for 2008 is what kind of equipment DEI will provide. The company has a spotty record when it comes to building fast, reliable equipment on a consistent basis. Parts failures in engines, brakes, or power steering happen on every team, but they seem to occur with more frequency at DEI. In the wake of Earnhardt Jr leaving, a lot of changes have been made both ogranizationally and personnel-wise. That could be a huge gain or leave Truex with a small margin of error. Truex is good enough to make the Chase and Manion has done really well to improve the cars on race weekends. Look for all of Truex’s primary numbers to improve and gain a spot in the Chase. Once he’s there, the tracks line up nicely for Truex to surprise, but only if the cars can keep up with the other top teams.