Trouble in Turn2

Kevin Harvick finished 3rd on the money list, won the two richest races of 2007, the Daytona 500 and the Nextel All-Star Race, made the Chase, and had zero DNF’s. And the year was a major disappointmentAfter a major breakthrough in 2006, Harvick took a step backwards in 2007 and became a survivor as opposed to a front runner. Harvick is one of the most talented drivers in the sport and everything is still in place at Richard Childress for a major rebound in 2008

The season began on an incredible high. He won a dramatic Daytona 500 and followed that up by nearly winning the next week at California. He was catching leader Matt Kenseth until he got a flat tire under the final caution. After that, things cooled off. Four of the next five races ended with finishes of 25th or worse. The rest of the year was spent in the NASCAR underground. He would occasionally pop up to lead laps at a race here (Phoenix) and there (Chicago), but rarely was he challenging for wins (Richmond and Indy). In fact, the most attention he got after his All-Star win at Charlotte was for his face-washing/shoving incident with Juan Pablo Montoya at Watkins Glen.

All of his numbers dipped from 2006. His laps led number dropped by 70%, wins went from 5 to 1 and top 5’s from 15 to 4. He also had the worst average finish (15.5) among Chasers. At this point you might think I’m being too hard on Harvick. After all, he did make the Chase (along with his two teammates), he won the biggest race of the season and finished in 10th place overall. And all of that is quite an improvement compared to RCR’s recent past. All of this is true, but the truth is that Harvick is capable of so much more.

Harvick didn’t score as many top tens, but he had 28 top 20’s. That speaks to his ability to avoid trouble and finishing races. Harvick is an interesting test case for a theory I’ve had. Is avoiding DNF’s a skill? It sounds like a ridiculous question. When you see a driver getting caught up in someone else’s wreck the easy thought is tough luck.

However, in seven Cup seasons, Harvick has had zero or one DNF five times. In 250 career Cup races he only has 13 DNF’s total. The same pattern is found in his Busch career. So does that mean Harvick is simply luckier than other drivers? Answering yes to that sounds even more ridiculous than chalking DNF’s up to luck. Obviously there are races where Harvick has problems and just rides around to finish the race, but he is doing something to minimize that kind of situation. He is known for being very committed to sponsors and finishing races could be something Harvick puts greater value in than other drivers. It still doesn’t completely explain how Harvick can consistently run in the top ten and compete for wins but not wreck. It’s an impressive, if not uncommon, trait that helps make Harvick a top driver.

So what will 2008 look like for Happy Harvick? For starters, there is his ability to win on almost any type of track. If it’s flat, Kevin Harvick will find his way to the front. Phoenix, Loudon, Richmond, Indy and Chicago are all places that Harvick excels at. He also has wins at Bristol, Daytona and Watkins Glen proving his versatility.

Maybe the greatest weakness for the #29 team is the high speed intermediate tracks like California, Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte. Finding a comfortable setup at these tracks will be crucial for crew chief Todd Berrier. RCR did a good job last year of being above average at the CoT tracks. This year the goal has to be improving from above average to excellent, or in other words joining the Hendrick and Gibbs’ neighborhood of excellence.

Harvick’s talent is unquestioned; he can win on almost any type of track, he is incredible at avoiding danger on the track and RCR’s equipment should be even better in 2008. Making the Chase is fine and good, but it’s only the first step for a team like the #29 car. I expect 3 wins, 10 top 5’s, 18 top 10’s and for Harvick to threaten for a Cup title. Harvick has been given all the tools to compete for a championship, and as the proverb says, “to whom much is given, much is expected.”