Trouble in Turn2

Jeff Burton’s 2007 season was like an Oreo. Crisp and solid on the ends, but soft, gooey and unhealthy in the center. He scored a win at Texas, five top 5’s and 6 top 10’s in the first seven races and finished with 2 top 5’s and 6 top 10’s in the final 8 races. The results sagged in the middle however and Burton couldn’t quite find the top 5’s with the regularity of the first part of the year.

Compared to the low point in his career with Roush from 2002-2004, Burton making his second straight Chase and finishing in the top ten is a good year. Burton also gets his share of praise for his role in RCR’s improvement in the last two seasons.

Off the track RCR and Burton’s primary sponsor AT&T spent the season engaged in a lawsuit with Nextel and NASCAR. Although the team won two appeals to put AT&T logos on the #31 car, the suit did disrupt things. The case is still pending, which means it could be more wrangling with Nextel and by connection, wrangling with NASCAR. That doesn’t promise stability for the #31, although RCR could surely plug in other sponsors.

All three Childress cars made the Chase, but no one was consistently leading a slew of laps of knocking out the top 5 finishes. In that sense, RCR took a small step back from 2006. Burton led 649 laps and 4 poles in 2006, but only 79 laps and no poles in 2007. Burton did improve his lead lap finishes, average finish (13.8) and laps finished. Those numbers indicate that an improved consistency. In other words the RCR cars weren’t running at the front as much but they were avoiding the valleys too.

Burton is not going to outrun everyone, lead a lot of laps and rack up 5 or 6 wins every year. What he does do is turn laps, improve the car with good adjustments and suddenly be there at the end. Look at his last two Cup wins. At both Dover and Texas he didn’t lead a lot of laps, but then suddenly he was there with the fastest car in the final segment. At Texas last year he led one lap, but it was the final lap. He did the same thing at Las Vegas but a vibration deserted him late.

Very few teams can tout the resources and personnel that RCR has. This automatically gives them an edge in developing and perfecting the CoT. It also makes them one of three teams that has any kind of chance to match Hendrick’s success.

Burton’s preferred track type is very similar to teammate Kevin Harvick. Loudon, Phoenix, Richmond, Bristol are all tracks that the two share as favorites. It’s interesting that Burton excelled at the same type of tracks prior to RCR. Was that something that was a natural fit when he joined or something that he helped culbivate in the team’s designs? In the end it doesn’t matter whether it was the chicken or the egg, because the team is getting results. In addition to the tight, flat tracks, Burton has run well lately on intermediate tracks. He is the only driver with two wins at Texas, and he’s also had recent success at Charlotte, Las Vegas and California

2008 is an interesting year for Burton and RCR. All three cars made the Chase in 2007, but it was more from compiling finishes than racking up great results. In year two of the CoT a lot more teams will have a better handle on the car. That means increased competition for the 12 playoff spots. Burton is obviously good enough to make the Chase, but one of the RCR drivers will be the odd man out. Burton can win a race, but the rest of his success is dependent on amassing top 10’s. I think he’ll need 13-14 prior to the Chase. For comparison, that’s a higher number than last year when he did make it.