Trouble in Turn2

This year NASCAR is spreading the off-weeks out a little more. The last three years the Cup schedule had this weekend off while the Busch/Nationwide Series went to Mexico City for the road race. This year the break won’t come until after race number five at Bristol.

What can we expect? Teams tested at Las Vegas in January, but heavy winds might make that data less useful than usual. The CoT showed glimpses of improvement over the old car last week. One of the biggest things might be the durability of the new model. Several drivers including race winner Carl Edwards scraped the wall with no problems. In the old car any contact would drastically alter the handling. Creating a larger margin for error also creates a larger racing surface for the cars. If a driver can run a high line with less fear of hurting the car, it will bring more excitement and more places to pass.

A friendlier weather forecast will also help the race. The more practice sessions teams can run, the better they can tune the cars and will also mean more rubber buildup on the track which establishes better grip.

Prior to the 2007 race the track was reconfigured with progressive banking. It now resembles tracks like Homestead, Chicago and Kansas. The problem in the race last year was a hard tire causing 9 cautions, including 3 within the first 19 laps. Cars just kept spinning out. Things eventually settled down and Jimmie Johnson dominated for his third straight Vegas win.

Johnson and Matt Kenseth have won the the last five Las Vegas races and have also combined for 7 top 5 finishes and 9 top tens in 14 combined starts. They have also led 578 laps and each have a cumulative driver rating above 100. Johnson’s three year Las Vegas driver rating is 133.7.

What to Watch The top 35 owner points will really firm up after Vegas. Teams like the #5 can’t afford three bad finishes to begin the year. How will that affect their approach to the race? Will the err on the side of conservative to increase the chances of Mears finishing the race? Or will they try and haul in as many possible points?

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Here is a glimpse at how I filled out my picks this week for the Fantasy game at One Bad Wheel.

Champ: Jeff Gordon He currently sits just outside the top 12, so milk him for all it’s worth. In the last three Vegas races he has a 114.1 driver rating. That’s top five points right there.

Chump: Brian Vickers Although he qualifies well, it’s not guaranteed he will make the race. If that happens, your team avoids the penalty his points would carry. He also has zero top tens in three career starts, so even if he does make field it’s not a sure thing he’ll run well.

Sleeper: Dale Earnhardt Jr. Despite his early wreck at California, his car was still turning laps slightly behind the leaders. Tony Eury Jr will lean heavily on the #48 and #24 teams and get the #88 running in the front.

Other Predictions

• It’s time for a racing incident. Daytona had a lot of hard and clean racing, but maybe it’s too early in the season for something to truly develop. California all about finishing the bloody race and avoiding weepers. Vegas is the perfect place for drivers to race hard, drop the clean part and start some stuff. If NASCAR is serious about getting back to its roots, how about cultivating a little. I’m betting my chewing gum on Juan Pablo “I’m not your puppet” Montoya. If that fails, then I default to a broader prediction that an incident will feature an open-wheeler (when there’s a cat named Car-Punt-ier, how can that not incite some carnage?).

• Kasey Kahne will win his 3rd career Vegas Pole.

• Go Fast or Go Homers After the duels and a rainout, this is really the first week that the bubble drivers will have qualifying in their own hands. Only 48 drivers entered means five will go home. Kurt Busch, Dale Jarrett (provisional), Brian Vickers, Michael Waltrip, David Reutimann, Patrick Carpentier, Joe Nemechek and AJ Allmendinger all make the race. Apologies to Burney Lamar, John Andretti, Mike Skinner, Ken Schrader and Johnny Sauter.

• Groanwatch. The Fox broadcasters will make at least five references to rolling the dice, deuces wild, and other associations to gambling during the race coverage. Get it? Because the race is in Vegas where…right.

• My pick to win? Kyle Busch is the trendy pick this week, but I’ve never been trendy. When other kids started wearing Girbauds and talking to girls, I was rocking sweatpants and caring more about whom the Minnesota Vikings would take in the 5th round of the NFL draft (not much has changed actually). My pick is Denny Hamlin. He runs well at tracks like Vegas and has been quick everywhere this year so far.