Trouble in Turn2

Talladega Preview

It’s easy to dismiss restrictor plates as a completely unpredictable crapshoot. There are more crashes and drivers have fewer control in certain situations, but the race outcome is not as simple as pulling one of 43 ping pong balls out of a hopper. Restrictor plate racing is a different category of racing just like road racing, short track racing and intermediate tracks. Each type of track requires its own kind of discipline.

When you think about the teams and drivers that run well at Talladega, they’re are almost always the same. How can that be a crapshoot? If it were truly a crapshoot you would see a small team stealing an occasional win. Instead certain teams have dominated restrictor plates and the domination is especially present at Talladega. Hendrick has won six of the last eight races. Before that DEI won five in a six race span.

It’s more accurate to say Talladega is a crapshoot for drivers not in the top ten. That is where the majority of the wrecks start and subsequently collect other cars. Good restrictor plate drivers like Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhadt Jr and Tony Stewart have all had their share of wrecks, but they also know how to avoid them. Believe it or not that takes skill.

What Happened Last Year

The 2007 spring Talladega race was a bit of a bore as the cars stayed single file for almost an entire fuel run. Then a late wreck set up a frenzied finish with Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson making their way to the front before the caution flag froze the field and Gordon won his second straight Cup race. The caution was caused by a wild wreck involving Kevin Harvick, Jamie McMurray, David Gilliland and a scary crash for Tony Stewart. Smoke also had some choice words after the race:

We get hit and then pushed in the wall. We’re done wrecking right there and then all of a sudden get jacked up by the No. 38 car for no reason. There was absolutely no reason for that to happen. He’s just taking it out on us for yesterday when he turned down across the nose. Leapt into his Cup ride but I don’t know, we’ll see.

Front Runners

• Jeff Gordon: He has two straight wins and has also won three of the last four spring events. Gordon also owns the best driver rating of the last six Talladega races. His two wins last year came courtesy of great surges on the final lap to take the lead.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr: Jr has won four Talladega races, although that don’t mean sh*t because he hasn’t won since 2004. Jr will find his way to the front and, like at Daytona, stay there for most of the day. That is the difference versus the last few seasons with DEI.

• Tony Stewart: Stewart has six runner up finishes but zero wins. He has a total of eight top 5’s and eleven top 10’s in 18 career Talladega starts. With the horsepower that the Camry’s cranked out at Daytona, he has everything required to finally win at Talladega.

• Kurt Busch: Busch has done almost everything but win a restrictor plate race. Laps led 89, top fives (6), wrecks, but no win, yet. The Dodges were more competitive at Daytona than any other track in 2008.

• Jamie McMurray: McMurray has an interesting pattern to his Talladega runs. He has four straight top tens, including three consecutive 5th place finishes in the spring race. In the fall race he has never scored a top ten and wrecks have brought him home in 37th the last two years. Fifteen percent of all his career laps led have been at Talladega. It doesn’t sound like a large number until you consider that Talladega races only have 188 laps per event.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

My Pick

The big question this week, actually it has been every week this year, asks if this is the week for Dale Earnhardt Jr to finally win. Sure he could. But there are a lot of other competitors to make it a slam dunk. One to watch is Kyle Busch, who was dominant at Daytona, but Talladega hasn’t treated Shrub well in the past. I wanted to pick Tony Stewart for the third straight week, but that’s boring. So I went with the next best thing: Denny Hamlin.

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