Trouble in Turn2

It’s a stupid baseball statistic, but it makes a lot of sense in NASCAR. The close and late statistic has begun to creep into baseball discussion. How does a hitter fare when it’s a one or two run game and in the seventh inning or later. The trouble with using this criteria in baseball is that a run is important regardless of what inning it is scored, they all count the same (no matter what the knucklehead on talk radio might tell you). In NASCAR the only thing that matters is who is around at the end. A driver could be terrible all day, but if they can figure out how to lead the one lap that matters, then all is forgotten. Look at some of the races this year. Ryan Newman at Daytona and Jeff Burton at Bristol both won by passing more dominant cars in the final laps. Burton is somewhat of an expert on leading at the right time. His last three Cup wins have come from a total of 9 laps led. That’s peaking at the right time and ultimately is what matters.

The key is making your way to the front at the right time. If a team can get into the top five in the final 10-15% of a race, that’s close enough to be in position to win. It obviously doesn’t guarantee victory, sometimes one car is going to dominate no matter what, but it increases your chances. A top five position with means that you can capitalize if another car slips up, or allows you to make a daring pass and hang on for the final laps.

How do you get track position at the end?

There are three basic ways that a team can use to get prime track position near the end of a race.
A Quick car- The most obvious, and usually most assured way to climb into the top 5 or better is to have a fast car. Teams spend the first 300-400 miles of a race improving the handling of their cars so that they are turning the quickest laps at the end. Good teams like the #48, #24 and #20 don’t always spend an entire afternoon in the top 5, but suddenly with 50 laps to go they appear, causing fans (and probably rival drivers) to ask, “where did he come from?”

Quick Pitstops- A fast car is not always enough to get the job done. Your driver has the fastest car all day, dominating the rest of the field when a caution comes out with 30 laps left. After a slow pit stop, the car comes out third or fourth and just can’t handle the same in traffic. Even worse, the crew makes a mistake like missing a lugnut or letting a tire roll outside the pit box. Suddenly a top five car is relegated to a top ten car or worse.

On the flipside, a team has a good car, but just can’t pass the leader on the track. Beating the leader out of the pits is a way to get that track position and possibly a win.

Quick Thinking- If a team doesn’t have the track position, and they don’t have a fast enough car to power to the front, sometimes it falls to the crew chief to take a calculated risk. If everyone pits with 20 laps left, a car can take two tires or stay out on the track to gain a prime spot for the restart. Or during green flag pit stops, maybe the team comes in early to enjoy more laps on fresh tires.

When rain threatens, teams are more apt to gamble on track position. Look at last year’s June Pocono race. Jeff Gordon and Casey Mears had decent cars, but staying on the same pit cycles as everyone else wasn’t going to improve their positions beyond mid-pack. They staggered their pit stops and Gordon won the race and Mears scored an unlikely top five.

Why Do We Care?

In order to see measure who was in position to win races, I looked at the laps led in the final 15% of a race. I chose 15% because at the majority of tracks, this is larger than the fuel window and so at least one pit stop would fall in the final 15% of these races (this might have to be adjusted for short tracks). In 2007 the #48, #24 and #20 were the top three cars in laps led in the final 15% of races. Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon won a combined 16 races and each scored victories through the different methods. In some races they were simply the strongest cars that would not be denied no matter the circumstances. Other races saw the two cars use pit strategy to get out front or simply be in position to capitalize on others’ mistakes. Contrast that with Dale Earnhardt Jr. He led 433 laps over 17 races in 2007 but only led 1 lap in the final 15% of any race. Whether it was engine failure, crashes, or simply losing the handling on the car, Earnhardt wasn’t around at the end of races last year and as a result went winless. Here is the top ten drivers with the most laps led in the final 15% of races for 2007.

[A huge thanks to Mike Forde at NASCAR statistical services for the data]

My theory is that while it doesn’t always pay off, the teams that consistently put themselves within striking distance of the lead, or better yet lead laps at the critical point in races will win more races over a season. Later this week I will look at the Close and Late stats for 2008 and who is ready to break through.

I realize this is something new, and a fairly long-winded explanation, but I would love some feedback on this. Is this valuable information or just nonsense? Do certain drivers peak at the end of races, while others lead a lot of hollow laps? Is 15% the right number to measure? Any feedback is appreciated. Look for part II on Friday.