Trouble in Turn2

I always used to refer to Dover’s track as Bristol on Steroids. Of course now that is probably cause for a congressional hearing and it would only drag Miles the Monster through the mud. Dover is an exciting track because it’s made of concrete, tough to pass and drivers can get frustrated. One of my favorite finishes of any race in recent years was the duel between Jeff Burton and Matt Kenseth. Burton was on fresh tires but Kenseth made it impossible to pass until the very end. Not only is Dover a track that’s enhanced beyond normal tracks, but so is the name of the race: Best Buy 400 Benefiting Student Clubs for Autism Speaks.

What Happened Last Year

Rain pushed the race to Monday morning and Martin Truex Jr led 216 laps to score his first career Cup win. Unforutnately for Truex, the win was overshadowed by two other events. Kurt Busch was parked after confronting Tony Stewart in the pits and nearly hitting a crew member. Did I mention he was still in his car?

The race also ended on a sad tone when it was announced that Bill France Jr had passed away.

Five Drivers who love Dover

Ryan Newman has 4 poles, 3 wins, 6 top 5’s and 8 top 10’s in 12 career starts. He was a top two car almost the entire race last spring, but unfortunately Martin Truex Jr was simply dominant.

Jimmie Johnson 3 wins, 4 top 5’s and 7 top 10’s in his career at Dover. Johnson almost ran down Truex in last spring’s race but suffered a flat tire in the final green flag run.

Matt Kenseth 1 win in 2006 and 5 top 5’s to boot. Kenseth has led 549 laps since 2004.

Kyle Busch For people that are tired of seeing Shrub run up front and threaten for wins, they might want to turn away. He owns the 5th best driver rating at Dover, 101.5. He has 4 top 5’s in six career starts and probably would have had a fifth top 5 if not for an engine failure at the fall 2006 race.

Greg Biffle won the 2005 spring race. In the last six Dover races he has the highest average driver rating (113.7) among all Cup drivers. He also has 3 top 5’s and 6 top 10’s in 11 career races. Biffle tends to excel at the tight, challenging tracks like Darlington and Dover.

One driver who doesn’t

It’s not that Tony Stewart doesn’t like Dover–he’s won two races– but lately he hasn’t had a lot of fun. In 2006 he had to drive with a broken shoulder blade before getting replaced by Ricky Rudd. Last spring he was headed for a top ten finish when he got together with Kurt Busch and both cars wrecked. That of course set off Busch who used his car to confront Stewart and his crew in the pits. In the last six races Stewart has a 67.7 driver rating, which is almost unheard of for a driver like Smoke.

Other Notes

• Hendrick Motorsports has won 10 races, more than any other team. The last HMS driver to win was Jimmie Johnson in 2005 when they used a tricked-out, although technically legal, shock package. And by technically legal, I mean that NASCAR outlawed the package immediately after the race.

• Mark Martin has led more laps (1799) at Dover than the total number of laps run of 16 drivers on the entry list. That shows two things. There are a lot of drivers with less than three Cup seasons of experience, and two, Mark Martin is awesome.

• The date sneaked up on us, but Sunday is Fox’s final broadcast for 2008. Aside from the Digger nonsense, it has been an outstanding run for the Fox crew. The ball gets passed to TNT for Pocono. Take that for what it’s worth.

• Joey Logano! Joey Logano! Mark Martin has been touting Logano as Cup ready since 2005. Even with Martin’s solid recommendation, the expectations and hype surrounding Logano are nothing short of outrageous (name another Busch East driver that has their own diecasts for sale). Logano’s much anticipated NASCAR Nationwide debut happens this Saturday, and for those that haven’t heard of him, he’s like NASCAR’s answer to LeBron James. Except that LeBron looked like he was a 29 year old linebacker when he entered the NBA at the age of 18. So far in his young driving career Logano has won in almost every series, but the Nationwide series is his biggest challenge yet. The trouble is I think some people will expect him to have immediate success and if he doesn’t, might label him a bust faster than you can say Casey Atwood. We all need to settle down, he hasn’t even made a Cup driver like Denny Hamlin mad yet.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Matt Kenseth If Kenseth is going to rebound this season, he’d better start now. His record at Dover is excellent in recent years.

Chump: Kevin Harvick: It’s doubtful that Harvick will finish in the 30’s, but it’s equally doubtful that he’ll finish in the top ten.

Sleeper: Mark Martin: His record speaks for itself (4 wins, 20 top 5’s, 27 top 10’s). Plus, wouldn’t it be funny to see Martin pose in Victory Lane with Miles the Monster?

Who Will Win?

Kyle Busch is really, really good at Dover. I thought about Greg Biffle or Matt Kenseth, but something is off with Roush lately. Biffle’s pit crew isn’t reliable enough at this point. Dale Earnhardt Jr has shown he can run in the top 5 and lead laps in any and every race, but he is hit or miss at Dover. Right now it’s Shrub’s world.