Trouble in Turn2

Silly Season ‘08 is beginning to take shape with several announcements in recent weeks. Monday it was the word that Jamie McMurray may not return (McMurray denies it)with Roush-Fenway Racing for 2009. The move is not shocking based on the fact that the team has to eliminate one car from their squad. The fact that McMurray has not fulfilled his potential also didn’t help. According to Jim Utter of the Charlotte Observer, Roush is also considering moving McMurray’s current sponsor, Crown Royal, to Greg Biffle’s car for 2009. It’s pretty obvious that Biffle will sign a new contract soon. Whether or not the announcement is official, it’s hard to imagine McMurray returning to Roush in 2009.

McMurray’s fate is actually linked to his teammates. Biffle and Carl Edwards were both top free agents for 2009 and had either left the organization, McMurray would probably be safe for next year. Unfortunately, Edwards signed a new deal last month and Biffle is close to following suit. That means McMurray is the answer to a simple math equation. McMurray is the most expendable driver in the Roush company. Biffle and Edwards are obviously having great seasons and have won 22 races combined in their careers. Matt Kenseth, while struggling this season, is a past Cup champion and a consistent threat to win races. David Ragan is a 22 year old driver with big potential and is outperforming McMurray in 2008. Five minus one equals McMurray. (On a side note, I wonder if Jack Roush will try to spin it as NASCAR’s fault for making him cut a team?)

What happens to McMurray now will be very interesting. At this point the only top tier team looking for a driver is RCR. Otherwise his options are probably limited to a second-tier team like DEI. Other teams will have openings as the season progresses, but signing on with a quality team is crucial for McMurray. In the current Cup environment things can slide quickly on a driver. Look at Jeremy Mayfield or JJ Yeley. How will other teams perceive McMurray? As a talented driver that needs a clean break or someone that failed with one of the elite Cup teams?

Despite his low stock right now, McMurray is tremendously talented and only three years ago barely missed making the Chase. He is capable of running well on almost any type of track. From short tracks, restrictor plate races to road courses, he is adept at everything NASCAR offers. He’s scored a top ten at every Cup track except Phoenix. He has two Cup wins and seven career Busch/Nationwide wins, including four straight at Rockingham.

The trouble is that he has not found success on a consistent basis. After his win last July at Daytona he finished 26th or worse in six straight races. He also fell outside the top 35 after this year’s Bristol. The other problem is that better drivers could potentially be available on the free agent market. It’s far from disaster, but it’s also far from what McMurray imagined when he signed a deal with Roush three years ago.