Trouble in Turn2

Tony Stewart When it will come: Any day now.

Stewart has run very well this year but can’t buy a win (I wonder if he’s even tried that?) He can win at any track, especially considering how well JGR cars have run this year. The next four races (Sonoma, Loudon, Daytona and Chicago) are all great tracks for Stewart. Actually the entire summer is ripe for a Stewart breakout.

Matt Kenseth When it will come: Chicago, Indianapolis, Michigan, Bristol

Maybe it’s Robbie Reiser’s help, but the #17 team has come alive since May. Kenseth has scored five straight top tens and has climbed to 14th in the points. In 2005 he faced a similar challenge to make the Chase and it all started with a strong run at Michigan. He went on to dominate at Chicago and win at Bristol.

Jeff Gordon When it will come: It could come at Sonoma or Daytona.

I’ll tell you where it won’t come: an intermediate track. Despite Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr running consistently well on 1.5 and 2 mile tracks, Gordon’s #24 team is out to lunch right now. Gordon has plenty of good tracks this summer, including two road courses, that he will certainly win a race at some point.

Greg Biffle When it will come: Michigan, Bristol, California, Richmond

Engine failures, pit road penalties and loose wheels have all cost Biffle chances at wins this year. You could look at how well he’s run and say he’s close to a win, but it’s also too large of a problem to ignore. Until the #16 team and actually Roush-Fenway as a whole solve their pit crew problems it will continue to cost them wins.

Brian Vickers When it will come: Daytona, Chicago, Pocono

Vickers and Red Bull Racing have really established themselves with their intermediate program. In fact Vickers is probably the hottest driver behind Kasey Kahne over the last month. A win is very likely, but the team still needs to prove they can run up front consistently. Watch out for Vickers at Daytona. Toyota’s horsepower on restrictor plate tracks is unmatched and Vickers is very good in the draft.

David Ragan When it will come: Loudon, Daytona, Dover

Ragan has continued to improve this season. He led late at Michigan but the team decided to pit for fuel to ensure a solid finish. One of Ragan’s strengths has been restrictor plate races. He has a legitimate chance to make some noise at Daytona. On intermediate tracks he’s been solid but hasn’t run close enough to the front to suggest he will win at one of these tracks. If any young driver is going to win their first race this year it will be Ragan.

Mark Martin When it will come: Loudon, Indianapolis, Pocono, Richmond

Martin says he is going to win at Indianapolis, but I would peg him as a safer bet at one of the flat tracks where he ran so well in the spring. He was the best car at the end of the Phoenix race and stayed in the top 5 all night at Richmond. Of course DEI’s history of missing out on details doesn’t instill confidence that they can help Martin out.

Kevin Harvick When it will come: Loudon, any road course, any short track, Indianapolis

The good news is that Harvick is capable of winning almost anywhere. The bad news is he only has two top 5’s this year. RCR cars are finishing decently, but not running up front enough. Harvick will win a race, but it’s hard to see it being more than a once-off.

Kurt Busch When it will come: Sonoma, Daytona, Pocono, Bristol

Busch is having a forgettable season, but he’s too talented to go winless. He has a lot of good tracks this summer and there has to be a win in there somewhere. It could easily come at Sonoma. To me, his lack of success is one of the biggest surprises of the season.

Martin Truex Jr When it will come: Loudon, Richmond, Dover, Phoenix

It’s hard to tell whether Truex hasn’t adjusted to the CoT on intermediate tracks or DEI is simply not giving him fast enough cars. Truex has still managed to post nice results at the flat and short tracks. He nearly won the 2007 Loudon race.