Trouble in Turn2

This week’s race at Infineon raceway might be the perfect storm for NASCAR. With the influx of open wheel drivers plus the incumbents that can wheel a stock car, the season’s first road course has the potential to be one of the best races of the season. There are very few places at Sonoma to pass cars, so minimizing driving errors is enormous. A slip somewhere else on the track can throw a driver’s rhythm off for the next several turns. There is also a lot of contact at road courses, arguably more than recent Bristol races. Even better, the contact can often lead to emotions boiling over. Witness last year’s Watkins Glen quasi-fisticuffs between Kevin Harvick and Juan Pablo Montoya.

With a number of teams hiring road course aces to drive this weekend, fans will need a scorecard to keep track of all the changes. In lieu of a scorecard, here’s a quick primer.

Ron Fellows hops in the #01 car for Regan Smith. Is it me or does anyone else think of the Brian Fellows SNL skit with Tracy Morgan when you mention Ron Fellows?

Mark Martin takes a week off to kick it with his homies. That means Aric Almirola straps into the #8 car. Does Almirola count as a ringer?

Marcos “Kangaroo Meat” Ambrose gets his turn on the #21 Wood Brothers merry-go-round. Past incidents with both Robby Gordon and Boris Said mean NASCAR should grant him a provisional on the basis of entertainment.

Dario Franchitti, road course ace, will replace Dario Franchitti, oval newbie, in the #40 car.

Scott Pruett replaces the listless Reed Sorenson in the #41. Even in bad Chip Ganassi equipment, who thought Sorenson would be this bad?

Max Papis will drive the #66 Haas machine while Scott Riggs shifts to the #70. Big deal, both cars are outside the top 35, right? The #66 is on the edge of the top 35 while the #70 has no realistic chance of rejoining the safety bubble. Haas’ hope is to have Papis build a nice cushion so that Riggs can then return next week with a guaranteed spot. Considering the closest competition is Michael McDowell and Michael Waltrip, it’s a pretty smart move by Haas.

What Happened Last Year

Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson began the week with cars that failed inspection, eventually resulting in penalties, and had to start from the back. Robby Gordon was the dominant car before fuel mileage ultimately came to the fore. Juan Pablo Montoya enjoyed the best combination of pit strategy and strong car to win his first Cup win and Chip Ganassi’s first win since 2002. He also became the second driver since 1997 not named Stewart or Gordon to win at Sonoma.

3 drivers that like Sonoma

Tony Stewart It’s Go-Time for Smoke. He is one of the most accomplished road course drivers in Cup history with 6 wins, 8 top 5’s and 12 top 10’s in 18 races.

Jeff Gordon 5 wins, 9 top 5’s, 11 top 10’s and 5 poles in 15 starts. He’s also led 437 laps at Sonoma, the most of all active drivers.

Robby Gordon Won the 2003 race and has led 155 total laps at Sonoma. His finishes in recent years have been skewed by mechanical problems, but few are better at getting to the front on a road course.

1 driver that doesn’t like Sonoma

Matt Kenseth has never led a lap at Sonoma, never scored a top ten and has three finishes worse than 30th.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Juan Pablo Montoya Montoya is in the Sleeper category, but with a thin crop of “Champ” drivers it makes a lot of sense to choose a third Sleeper.

Chump: Jimmie Johnson Johnson only has one top five and two top tens in his Sonoma career. He’s capable of a top ten finish, but not someone to rely on.

Sleeper: Jamie McMurray With so many road racers in the mix, it’s easy to forget that the guys that race stock cars every week often have more success. McMurray is very solid on road courses.

Who Will Win

Juan Pablo Montoya is definitely capable of winning, but with the current state of Ganassi Racing they can’t seem to run well anywhere. I’m very curious to see AJ Allemendinger race. He failed to qualify for both road course races in 2007, but Red Bull Racing has improved a lot since then. Patrick Carpentier is another “fulltime ringer” that is ready to cut loose. There are plenty of other open wheel drivers and road course aces that would make good choices, but I’m going with someone who has driven the CoT every week: Kurt Busch. His season has been a mess so far, but Penske provides some of the best road course cars in the Cup series. Busch won both road course poles in 2006 and has 3 top 5’s at Sonoma.