Trouble in Turn2

Prior to the 2008 season I made a list of six things that would happen this season. After 15 races we can already begin drawing conclusions about some of the predictions. Some have been right on, some have been off and some are still unknown. Overall, I’m surprised how accurate they were (this is the same guy that said Kurt Busch would win at Sonoma).

• Jeff Gordon will barely make the Chase

  What I said,
  

  Gordon is strong at enough tracks to make the Chase, especially a field of 12, but if it’s more of a struggle than normal look no further than DNF’s and how he runs at intermediate tracks.

  Gordon ran very well in the first handful of races but didn’t get the deserved finishes. Since Atlanta, however, it’s been a mixed bag for the #24 team. Gordon has been strong at traditionally comfortable tracks like Martinsville and Darlington. At other intermediate tracks like Atlanta, Texas, Charlotte and Michigan the #24 has been a mess. Gordon is still nabbing enough strong finishes from strategy to ensure he’s in position to make the Chase, but he hasn’t won a race and isn’t really close to winning one. His current position in the standings masks some of the problems with the #24 and at this point it’s clear they are a long ways from challenging for a championship.

• Regan Smith will win Rookie of the Year

  What I said
  

  He does a good job of keeping the car on the track. DEI also provides the top equipment among the companies fielding rookies in 2008. The other rookie candidates will all take more time to adjust to stock cars, not to mention racing at the Cup level. 2008 will also mark only the second season since 2000 that a rookie doesn’t win a race.

  Smith is certainly not lighting the Cup scene on fire, but despite a rough start he is finishing races. He has five finishes of 21st or better. The Rookie of the Year criteria is based on the best 17 races for each driver, so the race is far from over. Sam Hornish Jr is his closest competitor and is showing great progress in his stock car transition.

• Sonoma and Watkins Glen will be the most exciting, and competitive races of the year.

  What I said
  

  With the infusion of open wheel drivers, the starting field could feature a dream lineup of top road course drivers and top stock car drivers. You have a lot of drivers that could light up the serpentine courses (and their tires). The heavier CoT can also accommodate more bumping without the cars losing control. That means beating, banging, flipping (birds, not cars), shouting, shoving, and for fans excitement.

  There was beating and banging and some weren’t happy, but sadly the leader was able to get away easily (granted the leader stayed on track). Watkins Glen still offers hope for some serious fireworks.

• Toyota will win 6 races.

  What I said
  

  At first glance that number sounds like a lot, but think about it. Gibbs alone could approach the 6 win total. Further down, Brian Vickers and Dave Blaney both had several good wins in 2007 despite the weak Camry engine. It’s not crazy to think either driver could find victory lane.

  Check this one off the list. After 15 races, it’s pretty clear that this prediction was a little tame. The addition of Gibbs transformed Toyota’s engine package into one of the strongest in the sport. As for Vickers, he has three top fives and four top tens. He is coming very close to finding Victory Lane.

• Kyle Busch will be Gibbs’ most successful driver.

  What I said
  

  Busch’s move to Gibbs doesn’t change that the fact that he will win a Cup championship. It probably won’t happen this year, but he is excellent at nearly every type of track. His 97.8 driver rating was 5th best and in his fourth Cup season, he is hitting his stride. This isn’t a knock on Tony Stewart, who should have a great year, it’s just a statement of how good Kyle Busch will be in 2008.

  Tony Stewart is still poised for a big summer, but it’s clear that the #18 car is fully operational. Busch has already won 5 races (more than his career total entering 2008), leads the points race and looks capable of winning almost every week, including a championship this year. He has also won 4 Nationwide and 2 Truck races and pulled two triple-headers this year. Busch is still a lightning rod for controversy but it’s hard to ignore the results.

• A team will alter their full schedule plans

  What I said
  

  Now the most likely teams look like BAM, Furniture Row, and Front Row motorsports. They are each already on shoestring budgets, but the bigger teams are not immune either. Haas-CNC, Yates and BDR all face sponsorship hurdles and that might result in skipping a few races during the season.

  Bill Davis Racing shut down the #27 car earlier this season. While most other cars appear safe for the season, several still remain unsponsored. NASCAR is feeling the effects of the recession, and it’s hard to see teams willing to keep paying the bills out of their own pockets for too long.