Trouble in Turn2

Someone is about to go for a parachute ride. Based on recent history, it’s inevitable that one and maybe two teams sitting on the good side of the points will tumble between now and September. Since the Chase was created in 2004, at least one driver each season has lost altitude and fallen from a Chase position. With only seven races before the Dirty Dozen are chosen for NASCAR’s playoffs, the pack is tight for the final few spots. In recent years drivers like Bobby Labonte, Kevin Harvick, Dale Jarrett, Elliott Sadler, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Greg Biffle have all seen the bottom fall out. A season filled with the hope of a late season run at a championship suddenly squashed by late season problems.

Of course, for every driver that experiences a late summer slide there is another driver ready to swoop for their Chase spot. Just ask Jeremy Mayfield, Mark Martin, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin or Kurt Busch how that feels. One of the keys to making the Chase was winning. Four of these six drivers were propelled to the Chase on the strength of a win. Mayfield’s was the most dramatic. He won the Richmond race to crack the Chase field on the final night. While all wins aren’t as dramatic as Mayfield’s, they all count equally.

This year will again feature some nail biting for some teams as the races count down. 199 points separate 6th place Jeff Gordon from 15th place David Ragan. Ragan is also only 98 points from 12th place Denny Hamlin. A lot can, and will, happen in the next seven races.

Aside from obviously winning a race or scoring six or seven top tens, the biggest key is to avoid awful finishes. Last year Dale Earnhardt Jr had three top fives in the seven races prior to the Chase. Unfortunately he also had three engine failures that resulted in three 30+ finishes. It also didn’t help that his nearest competitor Kurt Busch won two races in the same span.

While some things like engine failures are out of a driver’s control, driver’s still must do everything they can in these seven races to minimize bad finishes. Allowing a rival to pass is worth losing 3-5 points instead of wrecking and losing 50 or more. Maximizing finishes is especially true when looking at the schedule, which is pretty diverse over the next month and a half. Two things that a driver and team must have are a good speedway car and patience. Speedways like Indianapolis, Pocono, Michigan and California are alternated with tricky short tracks like Bristol and Richmond plus the Watkins Glen road course. If a driver doesn’t fare well on road courses or a short track, they must avoid overdriving and making a costly mistake. If their car isn’t handling well, then they have to start considering gambling on pit strategy or fuel mileage.

At this point it’s hard to imagine a team discovering a new trick or making a large advancement that will help over the next seven weeks. For the most part what you’ve seen so far this year is what you can expect from the teams and drivers. With that in mind here’s one way to try and predict who will sneak in to the ball and who will turn into a pumpkin after Richmond. I’m using driver rating to predict future performance. I realize it’s not perfect, but it’s a decent way of telling who is over- and underperforming in relation to their point standings this year.

Of the nine drivers in the gray area (Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Jeff Burton, Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson are safe), drivers with the best driver ratings are Jeff Gordon (5th overall, 95.2), Tony Stewart (6th, 94.9), Denny Hamlin (7th, 93.1), Greg Biffle (8th, 89.7), Kevin Harvick (10th, 88.1) and Matt Kenseth (87.3, 11th). Based on their driver ratings compared (which I mentioned earlier in the season) to their point standing Gordon, Stewart and Hamlin are also driving better than they have actually finished. While this doesn’t always translate into improved finishes, it’s a lot easier to take a fast car and finish well than to take a slower car and hope you can outlast enough people for a strong finish. For Gordon, Stewart and Hamlin it’s also a good sign that they have teammates that are running really well every week. That also tells me that they are capable of not only finishing well, but could win a race. Matt Kenseth, despite a miserable start to his season, also falls in the category of a driver capable of winning a race, based on his last nine starts (eight top tens).

Meanwhile drivers like Clint Bowyer and Kevin Harvick have finished decently but their driver ratings aren’t as stellar. Despite a 3rd place finish last weekend at Chicago, Kevin Harvick has been very anonymous this year. Because Pocono, Michigan and California are unreliable for Harvick, he can’t afford bad finishes at the tracks where he is usually strong at like Indianapolis, Bristol and Richmond. The same goes for Bowyer who despite his win at Richmond has been more of a compiler than a front runner this year.

A little further back is Brian Vickers. He is the one person that is a wild card. He has been incredibly good on speedways and has a realistic chance to win at Indy, Pocono or Michigan. Unfortunately with Red Bull Racing still new to NASCAR, mistakes and letdowns are always lurking on the #83 team. The other issue is Vickers record at Bristol, Watkins Glen and Richmond. He has a combined 2 top tens in 20 starts at the three tracks. If he can mitigate the damage at these tracks with top 15’s or better, he has the speed on the downforce tracks to put a scare into the RCR cars for a spot in the Chase.

So you tell me, who will make it? Who will get tossed to the side? Who will have heartburn for the next seven weeks?

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