Trouble in Turn2

It’s a stupid baseball statistic, but it makes a lot of sense in NASCAR. The close and late statistic has begun to creep into baseball discussion. How does a hitter fare when it’s a one or two run game and in the seventh inning or later. The trouble with using this criteria in baseball is that a run is important regardless of what inning it is scored, they all count the same (no matter what the knucklehead on talk radio might tell you). In NASCAR the only thing that matters is who is around at the end. A driver could be terrible all day, but if they can figure out how to lead the one lap that matters, then all is forgotten. Look at some of the races this year. Ryan Newman at Daytona and Jeff Burton at Bristol both won by passing more dominant cars in the final laps. Burton is somewhat of an expert on leading at the right time. His last three Cup wins have come from a total of 9 laps led. That’s peaking at the right time and ultimately is what matters.

The key is making your way to the front at the right time. If a team can get into the top five in the final 10-15% of a race, that’s close enough to be in position to win. It obviously doesn’t guarantee victory, sometimes one car is going to dominate no matter what, but it increases your chances. A top five position with means that you can capitalize if another car slips up, or allows you to make a daring pass and hang on for the final laps.

How do you get track position at the end?

There are three basic ways that a team can use to get prime track position near the end of a race.
A Quick car- The most obvious, and usually most assured way to climb into the top 5 or better is to have a fast car. Teams spend the first 300-400 miles of a race improving the handling of their cars so that they are turning the quickest laps at the end. Good teams like the #48, #24 and #20 don’t always spend an entire afternoon in the top 5, but suddenly with 50 laps to go they appear, causing fans (and probably rival drivers) to ask, “where did he come from?”

Quick Pitstops- A fast car is not always enough to get the job done. Your driver has the fastest car all day, dominating the rest of the field when a caution comes out with 30 laps left. After a slow pit stop, the car comes out third or fourth and just can’t handle the same in traffic. Even worse, the crew makes a mistake like missing a lugnut or letting a tire roll outside the pit box. Suddenly a top five car is relegated to a top ten car or worse.

On the flipside, a team has a good car, but just can’t pass the leader on the track. Beating the leader out of the pits is a way to get that track position and possibly a win.

Quick Thinking- If a team doesn’t have the track position, and they don’t have a fast enough car to power to the front, sometimes it falls to the crew chief to take a calculated risk. If everyone pits with 20 laps left, a car can take two tires or stay out on the track to gain a prime spot for the restart. Or during green flag pit stops, maybe the team comes in early to enjoy more laps on fresh tires.

When rain threatens, teams are more apt to gamble on track position. Look at last year’s June Pocono race. Jeff Gordon and Casey Mears had decent cars, but staying on the same pit cycles as everyone else wasn’t going to improve their positions beyond mid-pack. They staggered their pit stops and Gordon won the race and Mears scored an unlikely top five.

Why Do We Care?

In order to see measure who was in position to win races, I looked at the laps led in the final 15% of a race. I chose 15% because at the majority of tracks, this is larger than the fuel window and so at least one pit stop would fall in the final 15% of these races (this might have to be adjusted for short tracks). In 2007 the #48, #24 and #20 were the top three cars in laps led in the final 15% of races. Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon won a combined 16 races and each scored victories through the different methods. In some races they were simply the strongest cars that would not be denied no matter the circumstances. Other races saw the two cars use pit strategy to get out front or simply be in position to capitalize on others’ mistakes. Contrast that with Dale Earnhardt Jr. He led 433 laps over 17 races in 2007 but only led 1 lap in the final 15% of any race. Whether it was engine failure, crashes, or simply losing the handling on the car, Earnhardt wasn’t around at the end of races last year and as a result went winless. Here is the top ten drivers with the most laps led in the final 15% of races for 2007.

[A huge thanks to Mike Forde at NASCAR statistical services for the data]

My theory is that while it doesn’t always pay off, the teams that consistently put themselves within striking distance of the lead, or better yet lead laps at the critical point in races will win more races over a season. Later this week I will look at the Close and Late stats for 2008 and who is ready to break through.

I realize this is something new, and a fairly long-winded explanation, but I would love some feedback on this. Is this valuable information or just nonsense? Do certain drivers peak at the end of races, while others lead a lot of hollow laps? Is 15% the right number to measure? Any feedback is appreciated. Look for part II on Friday.

Dale Jarrett’s Final Race

One of the classiest and most successful Cup drivers of the last 20 years will hang up the firesuit on Sunday (that is, until one of the three MWR cars falls hopelessly outside the top 35). Michael Waltrip Racing owes a great deal to Jarrett for where the company is today. It would be nice to believe Jarrett could have a storybook ending and challenge for the large cardboard check, but NASCAR racing rarely bows to Disney endings.

An Emerging Driver Will win the Open

The last three years the undercard race has been won by a driver on the verge of a breakout. IN 2005 Brian Vickers Mike Bliss on his way to his first win in a Cup car. He finally won a points race in 2006 (in eerily similar fashion). In 2006 Scott Riggs won the Open, which he followed up by winning the pole for the Coca-Cola 600 and also enjoyed his strongest Cup season. Last year Martin Truex Jr set up a hot summer streak by storming to an Open win. He went on to win at Dover, score top 3’s in four of six races and make the Chase.

Whether it’s a sibling rivalry or revisiting an old skirmish, the All-Star race is the perfect platform for getting something off your chest. In 2004 after Kurt Busch took out teammate Greg Biffle, plus about eight other cars when he gave bumpdrafting a try on a 1.5 mile track. In 2005 Tony Stewart was at the heart of a multi-car wreck, but Joe Nemechek used the opportunity to get into Kevin Harvick’s face while Stewart evaded criticism. Nemechek was apparently still upset at Harvick for inciting a large melee during the Gatorade Duels at Daytona that February (Note to competitors: Front Row Joe has a long memory, don’t cross him). 2006 Stewart was again involved in a wreck, this time with Matt Kenseth that had some residual tones from their tangle in the Daytona 500 from earlier in 2006. Last year Kurt and Kyle Busch collided, sparking a mild spat amongst the brothers. Said the elder Kurt Busch, “I’m not gonna be eating any Kellogg’s for a while.”

Dale Earnhardt Jr is far classier than most of his fans (at least the obnoxiously vocal ones), but if he wanted to settle any scores (hypothetical, of course), he could pick a worse race than an exhibition event. Like you weren’t thinking the same thing.

For what it’s worth, I have Greg Biffle as the winner and Ryan Newman and/or Juan Pablo Montoya involved in quasi-fisticuffs (I love it when I can use the quasi-fisticuffs tag).

• Pre-Race: ESPN is already pimping the stat that Jeff Gordon beat Jimmie Johnson by 86 points four times this season. That sounds promising for today until you realize that those were Johnson’s 4 DNF’s this season. As long as Johnson stays on the track, it is a non-issue.

• A few things to watch for during today’s coverage. I would love to get counts on the following:
  -number of times Rusty says, “I tell you what…”
  -”____ is hoping to build momentum for 2008″
  -mentions of Dale Earnhardt Jr moving to Hendrick

In-race reporter is Carl Edwards should be a good interview. His Crew chief Bob Osborne seemed less enthusiastic. Either he is all business or worried about their car. He looked like he would rather have a cavity removed than talk to ESPN.

• Almost time for some racing, an hour after the advertised starting time. That is something that needs to change.

It’s almost time for the final NASCAR race of 2007. Like everyone else, I’m strapped in on my couch, chips and homemade salsa at the ready, drinks in the fridge, and wearing my tuxedo (you’re not?). It’s not quite the excitement of Daytona, but it’s a good time to try something new for Trouble in Turn 2. It’s time to run some live commentary during a race. It might work, it might be a disaster, but I think it’ll be fun. Feel free to stop by, chime in at the comments section and see how this goes.

Jimmie Johnson won his third straight-Hang on the yellow flag is flying again for caution on the raceway. That’s sure how it’s felt the last two weeks. Even when the racing has stopped I’m still seeing yellow. I don’t remember one debris caution in the last two races, only a steady flow of crashing cars. At least the final segment was clear this week because the green flag racing at Texas is great. It is arguably one of the best tracks in NASCAR for racing at the front and is certainly in the top 2 with Charlotte as far as 1.5 mile tracks are concerned.

First the battle with Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin was clean, yet aggressive with Hamlin ultimately losing it. As Andy Petree correctly noted, Kenseth learned something from this battle for the end of the race. For one he knew how hard it was to pass on the bottom, so he made it incredibly difficult for Johnson. In the end 4 tires beat 2, but Kenseth also learned from Hamlin how treacherous the track can be racing side by side. Once Johnson successfully cleared the #17, Kenseth realized it was better to finish 2nd with the emphasis on finish. Just like the spring, the finish was great, but more importantly the race as a whole featured long spans of good racing.

• Since his 3rd place run at Loudon, Tony Stewart has not scored a top five in seven races. Not only is he not finishing well, he has led a mere three races during the Chase. The 20 car’s slump in performance is the most shocking story of the Chase. I was expecting Stewart to be right with Gordon and Johnson, but it hasn’t happened. Sure he’s had bad luck with Paul Menard and the wreck at Kansas, but the majority of the races Stewart has siimply not run as well as he did during the first 26 races. Puzzling to say the least.

• It’s not my thing, but if you played a drinking game for every time Jerry Punch mentioned the current point standings with more than 100 laps to go, you would be a very wobbly NASCAR fan. Likewise for every time Rusty Wallace mentions the phrases “downforce” or “running the high line”.

• Rusty Wallace mindnumbing quote of the week, “Never can I remember a race finishing at night at Texas”. I can’t either, except for the last two fall races at Texas, including 2005 when Wallace himself finished 22nd. I realize Wallace is in the booth to shoot off the cuff, but shouldn’t he at least be occasionally accurate?

• Scott Riggs drove his final race for Evernham, er Gillette-Evernham-Motorsports, and finished 13th. Patrick Charpentier will take over for the final two races. For Riggs it caps a frustrating season. He has failed to qualify for seven races, fell out of the top 35 by the fifth race and only has one top 10 and three top 15 finishes all season. Compare that to 8 top 10’s and two poles in 2006 and it’s obvious why Riggs and GEM felt the need for change. Meanwhile teammate Elliott Sadler scored his second straight top 15 finish showing signs of progress for the 19 car.

• Jamie McMurray had a nice race and finally scored the finish (9th) he deserved, but that mustard-color paint scheme was not OK.

• It was nice to see Ricky Rudd lead 10 laps today and finish on the lead lap. After a rough season Rudd deserves some recognition for his long career. I’m sure it’s too late, but I thought if Tide and Yates got together and rolled out the orange and white Tide scheme at Homestead that would be a pretty fitting end to Rudd’s career. Tide is not sponsoring a Cup car and Yates is losing Snickers/MasterFoods after the season. It makes too much sense. While other drivers like Rusty Wallace, Terry Labonte and Mark Martin (remember when he was retiring?) received season long merchandise-driven sendoffs, Rudd deserves at least one special race. If one of the Yates’ reads this blog, take note.

Chase this, Chase that. What about the other 72% of the field? What are they, David Gilliland’s occasional sponsor Pedigree brand chopped liver?

• 3. Reed Sorenson: Sorenson ran in the top most of the day and kept inching forward. By the end he was positioned in the top five to capitalize on the frenzied finish.

• 9. Kasey Kahne: After qualifying 4th, it looked like he might go backwards quickly, but he stayed in the top ten all day.

• 10. Brian Vickers: Avoided the carnage to score his fifth top ten. Imagine if he could make more than 60% of the races.

• 11. Michael Waltrip: Mikey is getting the last laugh this year. In the last four races he has a pole, a top ten and an average finish of 16.

• 12. Casey Mears: He could finish 43rd every week and his stock would probably still rise in the eyes of incoming crew chief Alan Gustafson. Compared to the exiting Kyle Busch, Mears looks pretty rosy.

• 13. Kyle Petty: Petty has finished in the top 20 in three of the last four Atlanta races. Leading a lap also helped build a little cushion on the other cars near the top 35 mark.

• 14. Elliott Sadler: The progress is slower than the #9 car, but the team is coming around. I think Sadler will win the pole at Texas. No reason, but why not?

• 16. AJ Allmendinger: As the rookie with the steepest challenge entering 2007, Allmendinger has come a long way. Not only did he score his third lead lap finish, but he also led the first lap of his career.

• 17. Ricky Rudd: I don’t think his car was on camera all day, but in typical, anonymous, workmanlike fashion, Rudd finished on the lead lap.

• 18. Bill Elliott: Elliott has done a good job to stretch his past champion provisionals to last the whole year. He has three left, ensuring the Wood Brothers will make the remaining races in 2007.

• 19. Dale Jarrett: Best qualifying effort (3rd) leads to his best finish in 2007. It took 33 races to score his first top 20. That means he’s on pace to win a race sometime in 2010.

• 21. Robby Gordon: Padding works better when it stays inside the car.

• 22. Greg Biffle: Biffle radioed on lap 28 that they were done, implying a blown engine. It was obviously something else (water in the fuel was one theory) as he stayed on the lead lap until the end .

• 23. Tony Raines: It’s DLP, it’s the mirrors. For Raines, JJ Yeley is in the mirror, and come Homestead probably his Cup career too.

• 25. Jr’s car sputtered at the drop of the green flag, setting the table for a long strange race. Going from the front to the back three times is hard work; he made 91 passes under green.

• 26. Imaginary radio chatter on lap 8: “We haven’t been great today, but we could steal a top ten by taking two tires.” Imaginary radio chatter on lap 7, “Nevermind”. McMurray is very similar to Truex in that they have a knack for catching other people’s misery.

• 27. Paul Menard: The only DEI car coming home in one piece. At least he’ll be popular with the body shop guys.

• 28. John Andretti: John Andretti raced? (come on, you were thinking it too.)

• 29. Scott Riggs: Lost a lap, got it back. Got a vibration, lost two laps. Oh how his season has gone.

• 32. Johnny Sauter: Who knew he had the power to single-handedly change the entire complexion of a race?

• 33. David Ragan: Every time I think he’s going to have a good race he cuts a tire, wrecks or in the case of Atlanta, both. For next week I think he will finish 43rd after he hits the kill switch during the pace laps. Right, David?

• 34. Juan Pablo Montoya: Murphy’s Law: As soon as the announcers marveled at how well Montoya conserved his tires in the spring Atlanta race, he blew a tire.

• 35. JJ Yeley: The common belief on Yeley is that sometime he will put it all together and run really well. What if he never does? After 75 Cup starts in top equipment I thought he would be further along.

• 36. Joe Nemechek: The finishes will never be great with Furniture Row, but at least Nemechek is getting the car in the field almost every week. He has made 7 of the last 9 races.

• 37. Ryan Newman: DEI-RCR has received plenty of attention for the massive engine failures this year, but what has happened to Penske? Ryan Newman suffered his fifth blown engine of the season at Atlanta. Prior to 2007, Penske hadn’t lost an engine since 2004.

• 38. Dave Blaney: Water in the fuel system sinks his top 35 hopes.

• 39. David Stremme: Two spins and a blown tire. Curious to know if Stremme and Montoya had similar setups that caused the failures.

• 40. Jeremy Mayfield: Jeff Green must have been watching the race, see Mayfield spin and wreck, and think, “I can do that.”

• 41. Bobby Labonte: It seems like the same story every week: Labonte runs well and cuts a tire or gets caught in a wreck. Texas and Phoenix still offer the chance of a top ten for Labonte.

• 42. David Gilliland: Ran really well until his wreck. Of course he wrecked which counts against him.

• 43. Mark Martin: Q-THAT WAS A VICIOUS HIT. HOW MUCH OF THAT DID YOUR BODY ABSORB? A-”I don’t know. What kind of question is that? (laughs)”