Trouble in Turn2

Jeff Burton’s 2007 season was like an Oreo. Crisp and solid on the ends, but soft, gooey and unhealthy in the center. He scored a win at Texas, five top 5’s and 6 top 10’s in the first seven races and finished with 2 top 5’s and 6 top 10’s in the final 8 races. The results sagged in the middle however and Burton couldn’t quite find the top 5’s with the regularity of the first part of the year.

Compared to the low point in his career with Roush from 2002-2004, Burton making his second straight Chase and finishing in the top ten is a good year. Burton also gets his share of praise for his role in RCR’s improvement in the last two seasons.

Off the track RCR and Burton’s primary sponsor AT&T spent the season engaged in a lawsuit with Nextel and NASCAR. Although the team won two appeals to put AT&T logos on the #31 car, the suit did disrupt things. The case is still pending, which means it could be more wrangling with Nextel and by connection, wrangling with NASCAR. That doesn’t promise stability for the #31, although RCR could surely plug in other sponsors.

All three Childress cars made the Chase, but no one was consistently leading a slew of laps of knocking out the top 5 finishes. In that sense, RCR took a small step back from 2006. Burton led 649 laps and 4 poles in 2006, but only 79 laps and no poles in 2007. Burton did improve his lead lap finishes, average finish (13.8) and laps finished. Those numbers indicate that an improved consistency. In other words the RCR cars weren’t running at the front as much but they were avoiding the valleys too.

Burton is not going to outrun everyone, lead a lot of laps and rack up 5 or 6 wins every year. What he does do is turn laps, improve the car with good adjustments and suddenly be there at the end. Look at his last two Cup wins. At both Dover and Texas he didn’t lead a lot of laps, but then suddenly he was there with the fastest car in the final segment. At Texas last year he led one lap, but it was the final lap. He did the same thing at Las Vegas but a vibration deserted him late.

Very few teams can tout the resources and personnel that RCR has. This automatically gives them an edge in developing and perfecting the CoT. It also makes them one of three teams that has any kind of chance to match Hendrick’s success.

Burton’s preferred track type is very similar to teammate Kevin Harvick. Loudon, Phoenix, Richmond, Bristol are all tracks that the two share as favorites. It’s interesting that Burton excelled at the same type of tracks prior to RCR. Was that something that was a natural fit when he joined or something that he helped culbivate in the team’s designs? In the end it doesn’t matter whether it was the chicken or the egg, because the team is getting results. In addition to the tight, flat tracks, Burton has run well lately on intermediate tracks. He is the only driver with two wins at Texas, and he’s also had recent success at Charlotte, Las Vegas and California

2008 is an interesting year for Burton and RCR. All three cars made the Chase in 2007, but it was more from compiling finishes than racking up great results. In year two of the CoT a lot more teams will have a better handle on the car. That means increased competition for the 12 playoff spots. Burton is obviously good enough to make the Chase, but one of the RCR drivers will be the odd man out. Burton can win a race, but the rest of his success is dependent on amassing top 10’s. I think he’ll need 13-14 prior to the Chase. For comparison, that’s a higher number than last year when he did make it.

It’s time for the annual pastime of making predictions. Earlier this week I made some general predictions about what 2008 may hold. Now it’s time to make my best guess at who will be the dirty dozen to stand on stage after the fall Richmond race with goofy, over-designed Sprint graphic hats and pose for Chase pictures (you may want to bookmark this for gloating later). In particular order:

• #48 Jimmie Johnson His team is the best in Cup until someone rips the mantle from his shoulders.
• #20 Tony Stewart He’s a lock unless the transition to Toyota hits a major roadblock.
• #17 Matt Kenseth Has never missed the Chase and he is consistent everywhere. Well, except road courses, but those don’t really count!
• #2 Kurt Busch Busch is good enough to overcome any and all of Dodge’s inadequacies.
• #18 Kyle Busch A Cup to match his brother’s is coming within the next two years.
• #99 Carl Edwards Roush will be better this year and Edwards could be a darkhorse title contender.
• #29 Kevin Harvick It’s go time for Happy and Berrier.
• #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr Wins? Check. Chase? Check. Championship? Not yet.
• #24 Jeff Gordon It’s tough to top 2007. He’ll regress some and might face a tougher year than expected.
• #1 Martin Truex Jr Truex is the primary beneficiary of DEI’s new direction.
• #07 Clint Bowyer Last year was not a fluke.

If you’re keeping score at home, you’ll notice that’s only 11 spots. That’s because I’m baffled on the 12th spot. The competition this year could be tighter than last year and I have four main candidates with their Pro’s and Con’s towards making the Chase.

#12 Ryan Newman Pro: Newman is a top 12 talent. Penske has everything Newman needs.

Con: Penske doesn’t always utilize all the tools properly. A third car could thin the organization.

• #9 Kasey Kahne Pro:If he avoids wrecks and GEM regains their 2006 speedway form, he’s in.

  Con: Dodge as a manufacturer is well, Dodgy. How do they handle the CoT?

• #42 Juan Pablo Montoya Pro: Showed incredible progress in rookie season and has world class ability.

  Con: Ganassi equipment is still second-rate until further notice.

• #31 Jeff Burton Pro: Made the last two Chases and RCR has all the tools.

  Con: The competition looks stiffer this year and it’s hard to see RCR getting three berths again.

• #11 Denny Hamlin Pro: Gibbs and Toyota looks like a fierce combination. Hamlin keeps improving.

  Con: Something was sour with Hamlin during the Chase last year. Is he due for a letdown?

So you tell me, who is the 12th man in the Chase? Do you agree with the top 12? Tell me your top 12 picks.

Carl Edwards

Carl Edwards rebounded from a sluggish 2006 to return to Victory Lane, secure a Chase spot, and to remind people why he is one of the most promising drivers in the sport. Expect more of the same in 2008.

Edwards posted 3 wins, 10 top 5’s and 15 top 10’s, with an average finish of 13.9. His numbers look a lot like 2005. The difference is that 2007 was a lot tougher for Edwards. In 2005 Roush Racing was the dominant force and the wins and top 5’s came rather easy, even for someone in their first full Cup season. 2007 saw Roush-Fenway come out of the gates slowly. Edwards couldn’t just hop in his car and rely on having one of the best cars. His results were based more on running well and holding on for good finishes.

He also won his first Busch title in comfortable fashion. It’s amazing that running an extra 35 races a year– sometimes in different cities than the Cup race—that it doesn’t seem to affect Edwards’ Cup runs. He is like Kevin Harvick in the fact that they just enjoy racing.

One thing that helped Edwards last year was the full time return of crew chief Bob Osborne. The two had success in 2005 and that chemistry returned in 2007 in a similar way.

A lot was made of his little dust-up with teammate Matt Kenseth after the Martinsville race. Part of the reason it was so surprising was his feint punch at Kenseth and the accompanied smug grin. As a rookie, Edwards was the “aw shucks, I’m just happy to be here mister.” People saw the Martinsville incident as out of character or that Edwards has changed, but Edwards is a fierce competitor and was upset.

Roush-Fenway’s intermediate program is one of the best in the sport and the cars should return to the front of the field at 1.5 and 2 mile tracks. Roush-Fenway might have started slowly on the CoT, but by the end of the season they were back to being one of the top teams in NASCAR. A big move was promoting crew chief Robbie Reiser to GM. Reiser has long been considered one of the top crew chiefs in the sport and now all five Roush teams will have access to his skill and knowledge.

The organization is well rounded at most tracks, but the cars really shine at the high speed 1.5 and 2 mile tracks. Michigan and California are especially strong for the team (15 combined wins).

For Edwards personally, he has a very concrete strength. In 2007 he won at Bristol and Dover, plus a Busch win at Nashville. There is something about that unique surface for Cousin Carl. Of course he runs pretty well at a lot of other tracks too. Darlington, Texas, Atlanta, and Michigan all fall in Edwards’ wheelhouse. Edwards is good enough to make the Chase and win 2-3 races each year, 10 top 5’s and 15 top 10’s.

Kevin Harvick finished 3rd on the money list, won the two richest races of 2007, the Daytona 500 and the Nextel All-Star Race, made the Chase, and had zero DNF’s. And the year was a major disappointmentAfter a major breakthrough in 2006, Harvick took a step backwards in 2007 and became a survivor as opposed to a front runner. Harvick is one of the most talented drivers in the sport and everything is still in place at Richard Childress for a major rebound in 2008

The season began on an incredible high. He won a dramatic Daytona 500 and followed that up by nearly winning the next week at California. He was catching leader Matt Kenseth until he got a flat tire under the final caution. After that, things cooled off. Four of the next five races ended with finishes of 25th or worse. The rest of the year was spent in the NASCAR underground. He would occasionally pop up to lead laps at a race here (Phoenix) and there (Chicago), but rarely was he challenging for wins (Richmond and Indy). In fact, the most attention he got after his All-Star win at Charlotte was for his face-washing/shoving incident with Juan Pablo Montoya at Watkins Glen.

All of his numbers dipped from 2006. His laps led number dropped by 70%, wins went from 5 to 1 and top 5’s from 15 to 4. He also had the worst average finish (15.5) among Chasers. At this point you might think I’m being too hard on Harvick. After all, he did make the Chase (along with his two teammates), he won the biggest race of the season and finished in 10th place overall. And all of that is quite an improvement compared to RCR’s recent past. All of this is true, but the truth is that Harvick is capable of so much more.

Harvick didn’t score as many top tens, but he had 28 top 20’s. That speaks to his ability to avoid trouble and finishing races. Harvick is an interesting test case for a theory I’ve had. Is avoiding DNF’s a skill? It sounds like a ridiculous question. When you see a driver getting caught up in someone else’s wreck the easy thought is tough luck.

However, in seven Cup seasons, Harvick has had zero or one DNF five times. In 250 career Cup races he only has 13 DNF’s total. The same pattern is found in his Busch career. So does that mean Harvick is simply luckier than other drivers? Answering yes to that sounds even more ridiculous than chalking DNF’s up to luck. Obviously there are races where Harvick has problems and just rides around to finish the race, but he is doing something to minimize that kind of situation. He is known for being very committed to sponsors and finishing races could be something Harvick puts greater value in than other drivers. It still doesn’t completely explain how Harvick can consistently run in the top ten and compete for wins but not wreck. It’s an impressive, if not uncommon, trait that helps make Harvick a top driver.

So what will 2008 look like for Happy Harvick? For starters, there is his ability to win on almost any type of track. If it’s flat, Kevin Harvick will find his way to the front. Phoenix, Loudon, Richmond, Indy and Chicago are all places that Harvick excels at. He also has wins at Bristol, Daytona and Watkins Glen proving his versatility.

Maybe the greatest weakness for the #29 team is the high speed intermediate tracks like California, Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte. Finding a comfortable setup at these tracks will be crucial for crew chief Todd Berrier. RCR did a good job last year of being above average at the CoT tracks. This year the goal has to be improving from above average to excellent, or in other words joining the Hendrick and Gibbs’ neighborhood of excellence.

Harvick’s talent is unquestioned; he can win on almost any type of track, he is incredible at avoiding danger on the track and RCR’s equipment should be even better in 2008. Making the Chase is fine and good, but it’s only the first step for a team like the #29 car. I expect 3 wins, 10 top 5’s, 18 top 10’s and for Harvick to threaten for a Cup title. Harvick has been given all the tools to compete for a championship, and as the proverb says, “to whom much is given, much is expected.”

A few weeks ago I wrote a list of ten fearless predictions. Fearless as they were, they were also written with my tongue lodged in the side of my cheek. It’s easy to hide behind a satirical list, but it’s time for a list of things that could seriously happen this year, and we’ll start with the boldest one. [Tease: There is something pretty cool at the bottom that I can’t take credit for. So if you were thinking of navigating away because you think this/I is/am lame, at least scroll to the bottom of the post for something entertaining.]

1. Jeff Gordon will barely make the Chase. Gordon had a phenomenal 2007 season. 30 top 10’s, 6 wins and only one DNF are incredible numbers and it will be hard to duplicate. Part of it is simply regression to the mean. The other part is that Gordon typically faces more DNF’s (9 in 2005, 7 in 2006) and that will drain points. In recent years Gordon and the team have also been slow to make, or adapt to, adjustments. In 2005 with the rise in popularity of coil-bound setups, Gordon languished all summer as the team struggled to get Gordon comfortable on intermediate speedways. If Gordon has anything close to a weakness it would be his intermediate speedway program. With a brand new car at this type of track, there’s a very legitimate chance that it takes Gordon a while to get up to speed.

   It’s not simply citing 2005 either. Last year in a spectacular season, Gordon and Steve Letarte were slow to change their gameplan in the Chase while Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus were winning 4 straight races with a more aggressive approach. That cost Gordon the title last year. Gordon is strong at enough tracks to make the Chase, especially a field of 12, but if it’s more of a struggle than normal look no further than DNF’s and how he runs at intermediate tracks.

2. Regan Smith will win Rookie of the Year. Smith got a gradual introduction to the Cup series last year thanks to his apprenticeship with Mark Martin. He does a good job of keeping the car on the track. DEI also provides the top equipment among the companies fielding rookies in 2008. The other rookie candidates will all take more time to adjust to stock cars, not to mention racing at the Cup level. Sure Juan Pablo Montoya surprised last year, but he was in a different class. 2008 will also mark only the second season since 2000 that a rookie doesn’t win a race.

3. Sonoma and Watkins Glen will be the most exciting, and competitive races of the year. Watkins Glen was arguably the most unpredictable and exciting race of 2007 and the road courses will only get better this year. With the infusion of open wheel drivers, the starting field could feature a dream lineup of top road course drivers like Juan Pablo Montoya, Dario Franchitti, Sam Hornish Jr, AJ Allmendinger, Jacques Villeneuve, Patrick Carpentier, Boris Said, Ron Fellows, Scott Pruett. Now factor in the old guard featuring drivers like Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Robby Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman and Jamie McMurray and you have a lot of drivers that could light up the serpentine courses (and their tires). The heavier CoT can also accommodate more bumping without the cars losing control. That means beating, banging, flipping (birds, not cars), shouting, shoving, and for fans excitement.

4. Toyota will win 6 races. At first glance that number sounds like a lot, but think about it. Tony Stewart has never won less than two races and 7 out of 9 seasons he’s won at least three. Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch also figure to win one or two races each. Gibbs alone will approach the 6 win total. Further down, Brian Vickers and Dave Blaney both had several good wins in 2007 despite the weak Camry engine. It’s not crazy to think either driver could find victory lane. In fact Vickers had arguably the best car at Charlotte until he lost the power steering late and Blaney finished 3rd at Talladega.

5. Kyle Busch will be Gibbs’ most successful driver. When Shrub was with Hendrick, the team had Cup champion past (Jeff Gordon), present (Jimmie Johnson) and future (Busch). Busch’s move to Gibbs doesn’t change that the fact that he will win a Cup championship. It probably won’t happen this year, but he is excellent at nearly every type of track. His 97.8 driver rating was 5th best and in his fourth Cup season, he is hitting his stride. This isn’t a knock on Tony Stewart, who should have a great year, it’s just a statement of how good Kyle Busch will be in 2008.

6. A team will alter their full schedule plans Last year it was Ginn, this winter Morgan-McClure quietly closed their doors, and this year could take its toll on another team. With so many teams with high profile sponsors all vying for the same real estate in the 43-car field, simple math shows there isn’t enough room for everyone. As a result some sponsors will not want to hang around if they can’t get exposure for their brand. That will force a team to either dig deep in their own pockets or scale back. Prior to last week this could have easily been Robby Gordon Motorsports, but he is probably safe thanks to Gillet-Evernham’s shelter.

   Now the most likely teams look like BAM, Furniture Row, and Front Row motorsports. They are each alredy on shoestring budgets, but the bigger teams are not immune either. Haas-CNC, Yates and BDR all face sponsorship hurdles and that might result in skipping a few races during the season. Like Metallica says, Sad but True.

Something Cool

I got an email out of the blue yesterday from someone named Ryan Parker. He writes topical sports songs and his latest is sort of an ode to NASCAR and the 2008 season. It’s really well done and he told me it took about 8 hours for the whole process. You can see all of his songs at his website.

Martin Truex Jr’s breakout 2007 season appeared to many as an overnight sensation, but his path to the Chase really began in September of 2006. That’s when he started popping into the top 10 on a consistent basis and that ran right into the following year.

It’s easy to think the tipping point came at Dover when Truex won his first career Cup race, but the truth is the payoff came two weeks earlier when he won the All-Star challenge at Lowe’s. Prior to that race, Truex had consistently run well for most of the year and good chunks of 2006, but lacked the end product. Sure the win was an undercard for an exhibition race, but in a way it realized the potential of the team. That began a run of four top 3 finishes in the four races from Dover to Loudon that launched him into the Chase.

Most of the attention for Truex was initially all related to Dale Earnhardt Jr’s departure. Then it turned to stories about Truex becoming the new leader of DEI, and by the end of the year Truex was making headlines for his weekly successes on the track.

The point standings don’t give the full picture for how improved Truex and the #1 team were in 2007. He spent 89 percent of the laps on the lead lap. Only Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth were better. That means when Truex was on the track, he was running for positions. His 13.6 average running position was 9th best.

Truex achieved success despite several bad results out of his control. The midseason engine merger with DEI and RCR didn’t help any of the DEI teams and Truex suffered two of his three engine DNF’s after the merger. He lost a strong run at Chicago (started 2nd, 12 laps led) due to a sour engine. Later he had another strong car at Talladega before a wave of engine failures wiped out not only the #1, but almost all of the seven cars equipped with the DEI/RCR engine. He was the class of the Atlanta field, leading 135 laps but got caught up in a wreck with Denny Hamlin on a restart.

Two of the better tracks for Truex are the two Northeast stalwarts, Loudon and Dover. Aside from his June Dover win, he also has 3 top 5’s and 4 top 10’s in 8 combined career starts. Texas, Atlanta and Michigan have also reaped good results, and Truex is especially strong at Texas where he won the pole in the fall race. If he can get enough drafting help, Truex is also a proven talent at Talladega and Daytona too.

Maybe the biggest surprise is Truex’s lack of success at short tracks. He has zero top tens in 12 short track starts. It’s surprising because of how well Truex ran in the Busch Series. He had 3 short track wins and 6 top 5’s in 15 Busch starts. The short track drought will end at the Cup level too.

Truex and crew chief Bono Manion have been together for four years and that has created a solid base for the #1 team. It took almost all of 2006 to build their Cup notebook, but they are now a team that shows up on a weekly basis with cars that can qualify well, run well and best of all, Truex can finish well. Now if they got some racing luck thrown in, Truex could be a major force. One trait of Manion is his willingness to gamble. Manion left Truex out at Phoenix and Homestead in the hopes of stealing wins with track position. Neither instance turned into a win, but that attitude could be a benefit in future situations.

The biggest question facing Truex for 2008 is what kind of equipment DEI will provide. The company has a spotty record when it comes to building fast, reliable equipment on a consistent basis. Parts failures in engines, brakes, or power steering happen on every team, but they seem to occur with more frequency at DEI. In the wake of Earnhardt Jr leaving, a lot of changes have been made both ogranizationally and personnel-wise. That could be a huge gain or leave Truex with a small margin of error. Truex is good enough to make the Chase and Manion has done really well to improve the cars on race weekends. Look for all of Truex’s primary numbers to improve and gain a spot in the Chase. Once he’s there, the tracks line up nicely for Truex to surprise, but only if the cars can keep up with the other top teams.

The most common phrases people use to describe second-year Cup driver Denny Hamlin are things like, “He can’t keep this up,” or “just wait for the letdown”. After two straight Chase berths and three Cup wins, what if the letdown never comes? What if Hamlin is simply one of the top Cup drivers?

Based on his disappointing 12th place finish, it might look like Hamlin regressed from his 3rd place finish in 2006, but that’s not true at all. His 97.0 driver rating and 918 laps led proved he was a front runner. In 2006 Hamlin was more often avoiding trouble and compiling strong finishes. It was a sound strategy for a rookie and Hamlin raised the bar last year.

Hamlin only won one race (Loudon) in 2007, but he could have easily won four or five. Hamlin had good runs at Bristol, Phoenix, Talladega, Darlington, Pocono only to see wins slip through his fingers in one way or another. At Bristol it was a faulty oil pump cable. He was class of the field at Phoenix, Darlington and Pocono only to lose on a pit road speeding penalty, a bad pit stop and rain respectively. He ran out of gas at Talladega due to a questionably long caution period. And in the most bizarre race of the season, Hamlin lost the lead at Atlanta when his car sputtered on the penultimate restart due to water in the fuel tank.

Hamlin and crew chief Mike Ford enter their third season together and probably will stick to their regular gameplan, which means keeping things simple, avoiding trouble and not making silly mistakes. Based on preseason testing, any concerns about Joe Gibbs Racing’s switch to Toyota should be quelled. Hamlin and teammates Kyle Busch and Tony Stewart were all near the top of the speed charts. The combination of the Gibbs’ organization’s knowledge and Toyota’s resources and engineering is going to make a lot of horsepower and speed.

Hamlin’s favored tracks are the short, tight tracks like Phoenix, Loudon, Richmond and Martinsville. He takes great pride in his Virginian roots and a win at Richmond or Martinsville would be very popular. Based on his results at the two tracks, that win is likely to come this year. He has seven top tens and two poles in 9 total races at the two Virginia tracks. Hamlin also runs well at Texas, California and Pocono. In fact Hamlin has been downright dominant at Pocono. In his four Cup starts he has 2 wins, 3 top 5’s and 4 top tens plus 283 laps led.

Hamlin is capable of success at nearly any track, but he also showed an emotional side in 2007 that proved costly on several occasions. At Daytona, he got together with teammate Tony Stewart and both wrecked while running 1st and 2nd. That led to both drivers blaming the other and ended with both being called into the boss’ office. Later in the year Hamlin tangled with Kyle Petty at Dover. After the race he refused to accept responsibility for the crash, despite both drivers being at least partially culpable. Not only did the incidents scuff his reputation, but they also were the worst finishes of the year. It’s hard enough to avoid bad results without exacerbating the situation. That goes double in the Chase.

Based on what Toyota has shown so far, Hamlin has a great chance to make the Chase again. Hamlin is good enough at most tracks that he will be in position to compete for wins. There is no reason why Hamlin will miss the Chase, but strange things happen in NASCAR–especially how competitive this year promises to be. Hamlin should win a race or two, score 8 to 10 top 5’s and be in the hunt for a Chase spot.

81 races and counting. That’s the running total on Ryan Newman’s win drought at the Cup level. It’s part of a downward trend in Newman’s short Cup career. He won 8 races in 2003. 2 in 2004, 1 in 2005 and zero in each of the past two seasons. After making the first two versions of the Chase, Newman has been absent from the past two playoff sessions.

Despite his declining win totals, Newman is still most often found near the front of the pack. He came agonizingly close to winning several races in 2007. Starting from the pole at Dover, he led 135 laps, but finished second to a dominant Martin Truex Jr. He won the pole again the next week at Pocono and was within one turn of taking the lead from Jeff Gordon when NASCAR called the race due to rain. He also nearly won at Charlotte before he blew a tire while leading the race with less than 50 laps to go.

The biggest achilles heel for the #12 team is the high number of bad finishes. Newman had 10 finishes of 30th or worse. 4 of these kinds of results came in the first 8 races of the season, putting Newman in a big hole. Newman is a top 12-caliber driver, but he needs to do better to avoid crashes. There are races where Newman will really struggle with a setup and that usually ends up in a bad finish in the 30’s instead of just a disappointing finish somewhere in the high teens or twenties.

The other element to Newman’s high DNF count was 5 engine failures. It’s surprising since the team had zero engine failures in 2006. Traditionally Penske has had strong, reliable horsepower and this problem will surely be temporary.

Penske does not lack for anything resource-wise (Proposed plans to build their own test track!). The problem is getting everyone on the same page. Look at the failed Intrepid/Charger experiment in 2006. That kind of distraction set the team back for an entire year. Things went better in 2007, especially with the CoT. Newman had a 13.3 average finish in the 16 races featuring the boxier new model. Part of this is probably due to Newman’s strength at tracks 1 mile and under, but the fact that he can run well in the new car is a good sign.

The company cleaned things up in 2007, but now there is a third team to incorporate into the Penske system. That will pull resources and personnel away from the #2 and #12 teams. Is Penske deep enough to handle the changes? The other pressing question is how will Newman and new crew chief Roy McCauley click? McCauley was previously with Kurt Busch and the #2 team, but took most of 2007 off to tend to a family emergency. Thankfully he’s back and his chemistry with Newman will be key. After spending his first four plus seasons with Matt Borland, Newman is now on his third crew chief in two years.

Newman is a threat to win the pole at any intermediate speedway, especially Atlanta and Charlotte. He has 42 career poles in six years, with seven each at Atlanta and Charlotte. Unfortunately he has only won from the pole three times. Of his 42 poles, only 22 have led to top ten finishes.

When it comes to winning races, Newman is a pretty well rounded driver. He has scored top 5’s at every race track except Homestead, but there are a handful of tracks where Newman especially shines. At Dover Newman has 3 wins, 6 top 5’s, and 8 top 10’s in only 12 career races. That’s an impressive line, but his Loudon numbers are almost as good (2 wins, 5 tip 5’s, 9 top 10’s, 4 poles). Pocono and Michigan also represent tracks where Newman is capable of winning.

Newman can make the Chase in 2008. He doesn’t even need to win a race, but that’s probably on his personal checklist. In order for the Chase to be reality, Newman needs to straighten a few things out. Priority one is reducing the number of sub-30 finishes by at least 50%. It’s better to settle for a 20th place finish than wrecking. Penske also must do their part to true up the engine program and make sure Newman has the top 5 and top 10 cars he expects. If he can tighten up his finishes, increase his top 5’s by three or four, the Chase is a real possibility for 2008. After that, wins will be icing on the cake.

A 76.4 driver rating? Isn’t that a number usually associated with someone stuck in mid-pack, not a front runner like Greg Biffle. Well, that’s where fans could find Biffle during most of 2007. Only one win—a contested win at that, a handful (5) of top 5’s and zero chance at competing for a Chase spot. Here’s another startling stat, Biffle led a minscule 73 laps, a career low. Biffle’s hard charging style means if he can lead laps, he will. And last year he didn’t. All of that is to say that Biffle’s season was filled with frustrations.

Maybe we should have seen it coming. It took him until race 5 to score his first top 10, meaning he was off the pace at California, Las Vegas and Atlanta, three intermediate tracks that typically fall in Biffle’s wheelhouse. After Jack Roush spent the offseason claiming Biffle and new crew chief Pat Tryson had carte blanche in regards to Roush Racing personnel and resources, the result was a failure.

You could shrug off Biffle’s struggles to bad luck, but this is his second straight season of “bad luck”. In 2006 Biffle had a top ten driver rating and led 993 laps, but things out of his control like engine failures and wrecks eliminated him from Chase contention. The #16 simply didn’t perform in 2007.

The Pat Tryson experiment didn’t work and by June Greg Erwin was Biffle’s new crew chief. The results didn’t change much, but Erwin and Biffle did manage 3 top 5’s in the final ten races. That included Biffle’s sole win of 2007 late in the year at Kansas, despite a controversial finish. In a darkness shortened race, Biffle took the checkered flag under caution, and immediately pulled to the infield and stopped. Other drivers complained that Biffle didn’t maintain caution speed and therefore didn’t win the race. NASCAR said he did and so Biffle wound up in victory lane.

The good news for 2008 is that Biffle ran better in the CoT than the old car. His average in the “old car” was 21.5 compared to his 14.8 in the CoT. This sets a good tone for the team’s short track program that can hopefully translate to the other aspects of the Cup schedule. He typically adjusts quickly to new changes too. That provides hope in 2008 for Biffle at some of his best tracks like Michigan, Atlanta, Texas and California. 8 of his 12 career wins came at either 1.5 or 2 mile tracks.

Biffle also excels at tracks that require great car control. Places like Dover, Bristol, Phoenix and Darlington are all places that Biffle really takes off. Biffle has led laps at every current Cup track and has scored top tens at every track except Talladega. Road courses and restrictor plate races are still not his strengths, but he can turn in good runs at these tracks too.

Despite only five years of Cup experience Biffle is 38 years old. His contract expires at year’s end and Roush-Fenway is also mandated to eliminate one of its five Cup teams. All that adds up to a pivotal season for Biffle. If things begin like last year, does Biffle begin searching for other rides?

A lot will be answered in the first seven races. Four of the first seven races come at intermediate tracks. Throw in a race at Bristol and the schedule sets up very well for Biffle. He needs to score three or four top tens and lead some laps. If that happens, it will mean that Roush has a good handle on the CoT and Biffle has a chance at the Chase. If not, then it could be another long year for the #16 team.

The word on the street is that Casey Mears drives for Hendrick Motorsports. Based on most NASCAR publications and promotional pictures it would be easy to think of HMS as a three-car galaxy of superstars. Mears is a solid driver in his own right. In fact Mears finished one spot better than his higher profile teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. in the 2007 point standings. Don’t feel bad for Mears. Sure he gets as much attention as an extra on Oceans 13, but his situation continues to improve with Hendrick.

It took Mears the first third of the season to settle into the #25 car. A rash of wrecks didn’t help and it pushed Mears to the edge of the top 35 cliff. He eventually clawed his way back to the teens in the standings. Then came the big breakthrough. At the Coca Cola 600 Mears ran in the top 5 all night and then endured on fuel mileage for his first career Cup win. He followed that up with two top fives in the next three races.

He set career highs in wins, top 5’s, top 10’s and lead lap finishes. The first three numbers are obvious, but improving his lead lap finishes is a credit to his new Hendrick equipment. The cars are there for Mears to take advantage of, now the rest is up to him to avoid wrecks and find the right setup.

New crew chief Alan Gustafson will handle most of the heavy lifting on car setups. Last year Darian Grubb came from the engineering team to be Mears’ crew chief. Grubb had to rebuild the #25 team and quickly grow into the crew chief’s role, both of which contributed to Mears’ slow start. Now Grubb moves back to engineering to make way for one of the top young crew chiefs in the sport. Gustafson has spent the last three seasons with Kyle Busch and the #5 team, where they’ve won 4 races. After assorted headaches with Busch, Mears is surely a treat for Gustafson.

Mears showed improved consistency, but the next step is running closer to the front. He had 12 races where finished 11th-20th and only led 33 laps in 2007. Whittling 15th place finishes down to top 10’s would mean a nice jump in points. It’s a simple plan, but will be tough with so many other top drivers vying for the same space on the track.

His comfort is found at the intermediate tracks where he has experienced the most success. Tracks like Texas (4 top 10’s in 5 starts), Las Vegas, Kansas and Pocono comprise the type of fast, gradually-banked tracks that apparently fit Mears’ style. Mears weakness continues to be places like Phoenix, Loudon and Richmond. He has one career top ten in 28 career starts at the three sister tracks.

Can he make the Chase? Some have pointed to 2005 when Roush Racing placed all five of their drivers in the season ending playoffs as a sign that Hendrick could land all 4 drivers in the 2008 Chase. So sure, it’s possible. The big difference then, was that Roush perfected the 2005 aero package while other teams, including some Hendrick cars, struggled mightily. The CoT is in its second year and while Hendrick shot out to a large lead last year, the rest of the sport is bound to close the gap this year. In other words, last year was the more likely season to place a whole organization in the Chase. Mears had a nice 2007, and another win at a speedway or superspeedway is entirely possible in 2008. Beyond that, it’s hard seeing Mears vault over so many drivers to make the Chase.