Trouble in Turn2

[Warning: This preview only covers aspects of Dale Earnhardt Jr’s 2008 racing season and therefore will sidestep any non-racing drama, theatrics or further mentions of family relationships.]

You don’t have to be a hard core NASCAR fan to know that Dale Earnhardt Jr is heading to a new team in 2008. The team, sponsors and number are all new, but what everyone really wants to see is a return to his old, frontrunning ways with some wins mixed in. The NASCAR question of the year requires a whale of an answer: How will Dale Jr do with Hendrick Motorsports?

The answers vary as much as fans’ opinions about Junior’s move to Hendrick itself:
“He’ll be an instant champion.”
“He’s overrated no matter where he is.”
“He’ll be overshadowed by Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson.”
It’s always hard to guess how a driver will adapt to a new team, so instead of guessing, let’s look at some numbers. Based on the last three years, the third Hendrick team’s numbers with Kyle Busch went like this:

I used the last three seasons because the third team prior to 2005 was driven by either Terry Labonte in the twilight of his career or rookie Brian Vickers. It wasn’t a very good indicator of the third car’s potential. Now check out Dale Jr’s stats from 2003-2007

Comparing the two drivers, they both have similar averages. Since 2003 Earnhardt has a composite line of 2 wins, 10 top 5’s and 17 top 10’s. That’s almost exactly Busch’s three year average of 1.3 wins, 10 top 5’s and 17 top 10’s.

In 2007 Jr’s 93.2 driver rating was 8th best, better than four drivers that made the Chase. This shows a few things. One, he was running inside the top 10 on a consistent basis. The other point to note is that rating was pulled down by his rash of engine failures (6). He was actually closer to 5th or 6th on a weekly basis. That is about what we should expect in 2008.

Importing Tony Eury Jr to remain as Earnhardt’s crew chief is a huge bonus in the transition. The fact that Eury began working Hendrick prior to November accelerates the process even more. Eury is widely respected as one of the top crew chiefs at the Cup level and most crucially, has a good understanding of what Earnhardt needs. When Junior screams over his radio about a tight condition, Eury can interpret the changes needed based on the octave of Earnhardt’s screams. Few crew chief/driver combinations can communicate on such an unconventional level. Aside from the obvious technical improvements that Hendrick can offer, the attention-to-detail attitude of the company could also help eliminate some of the mental mistakes that have cost the two Juniors in the past.

Earnhardt Jr is best known for his command at restrictor plate tracks, but he is pretty well rounded. Talladega and Daytona are great tracks, but he is an elite driver at Bristol, Atlanta, Texas, Richmond and Martinsville too. He has also worked hard to improve as a road racer. He ran inside the top 5 at both Sonoma and Watkins Glen all afternoon, until fuel mileage and a blown engine spoiled his respective runs.

One argument detractors make is that Earnhardt Jr will have to beat his new teammates in order to have success. That is no different than last year, except now he is on an even field equipment-wise. A driver will always have to beat 42 other cars in order to win a race or a Cup title, so that argument doesn’t hold up.

Returning to the original question, how far can Junior climb this year? Eury Jr said they will win 4 races, but that’s a stretch. The only year Earnhardt has won 4 or more races was 2004. It’s a big leap to go from 1 race to 4 or 5, even for a driver as talented as Earnhardt is. The biggest difference will be seen in the consistency of the Hendrick cars. In previous years Earnhardt could often make his way into the top ten, but not always stay there. That lowered his chances of being at the front at the finish. He would also have a handful of races where the team was simply uncompetitive. These things will diminish at Hendrick, where he will get top 5 calibur cars on a weekly basis. His primary numbers may not change much over his career averages, but secondary numbers like his driver rating, laps led and number of laps spent in the top ten should all increase. 10 top 5’s would mean that he’s running at the front often enough to be in position to win and 20 top 10’s would surely equal a Chase berth. Once he’s in the Chase–a welcome sight for all NASCAR fans, is where we’ll see what he has for the other big guns in the sport.

It seems like Jamie McMurray enters each season with the hopes of a breakthrough season. Is he finally ready for a breakthrough? Or has he simply reached the peak of his skills? First some numbers.

His first three Cup seasons he spent with Chip Ganassi Racing (with Felix Sabates-Target-Kitchen Sink-Motorsports). Ganassi’s equipment was widely recognized as second rate compared to the powerhouse teams like Hendrick, Gibbs and Roush Racing. The logic said if McMurray can do a good job with mediocre resources, he would be great at one of the top teams, like Roush Racing. He’s now entering year three with a top team and the results have stayed the same. Excluding his excellent 2004, his numbers are the same from year to year.

The confounding part is that McMurray is truly talented. He is equally adept at road courses as he is plate races or short tracks. In fact he has scored at least one top ten at every Cup track except Phoenix. Some of his best tracks are difficult tracks like Darlington, Dover and Bristol. Yet somehow McMurray struggles to consistently run in the top 5 and top 10. **It’s not even a matter of running well and finishing poorly. He simply has too many races where the car doesn’t run well. He has 703 career laps led over six seasons. That total is fewer than four drivers led in 2007 alone.

This preview isn’t meant to simply knock McMurray. He had a lot of good runs in 2007. The highlight of the season was his win at the summer race at Daytona. It was a dramatic finish that gave McMurray his first win since that shocking victory in 2002 when he filled in for an injured Sterling Marlin at Charlotte. The Daytona win was a reminder of McMurray’s talent. Despite his numbers at plate races, he is one of the better drivers at Daytona and Talladega. He is always near the front of the pack and works the draft well.

McMurray’s greatest weakness is his lack of consistency. After his Daytona high point, he finished 26th or worse in 6 of the next 7 races. Any Chase notions were quickly dashed. He finished on the lead lap 17 times.

Entering the 2008 season, McMurray needs to find a comfort level in the CoT. His average finish in the old car was 20.7 compared to 24.0 in the CoT. Obviously the CoT is the exclusive car model of 2008, so McMurray and crew chief Larry Carter must impove their approach to the boxier CoT. The good news is that McMurray has all the tools to improve his status. He has the deep resources, equipment and information that Roush Racing provides. His driving talent is proven, especially at tracks like California, Martinsville, Texas and Charlotte. He also retains crew chief Carter. It’s that kind of consistency that can only help the #26 car. Can he make the Chase? He certainly has the potential, but it’s hard to see it happening. Look at the drivers that made the Chase last year. There are probably only three or four that he is potentially better than, and then include other drivers like Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Kasey Kahne, and suddenly the Chase looks like a very crowded, and unlikely option for McMurray.

When did February get here? I just love how nicely the start of NASCAR’s season dovetails perfectly with the end of the NFL season. For many people, the post-Super Bowl days are bleak in terms of sports offerings (Pro Bowl anyone?). But for NASCAR fans, it kicks right into the Bud Shootout and Speedweeks. After a winter spent scrounging from crumbs of actual NASCAR news, it’s suddenly pouring forth in large consumable portions. I guess that’s what happens when the season is only two weeks away, and that’s a very good thing. So what is happening in the weeks leading up to the sport’s own crown jewel?

• The final preseason tests happened out west this past week. It posed the stiffest test for the CoT so far, with tests on two high speed intermediate tracks, Las Vegas and California. Aside from stiff 60mph winds and several wadded cars, there weren’t too many problems. The car handled decently, the sky didn’t fall and like it or not, it’s going to be the full time car in 2008. Based on the speeds posted at Vegas and California, the top teams were at the top of the leaderboards. Roush, Gibbs, Hendrick and Penske were all fast. Why should anyone be surprised?

  This week’s test speeds mean more than the ones at Daytona, but how much can you truly glean from them? The test charts usually show the fastest single laps. I am far from a NASCAR expert, but how do we know who was consistently quick over long runs or handled best on older tires? It’s doubtful teams were sandbagging, but not every team was trying the same the things. Michael Waltrip’s quick speeds at California are a good sign towards his qualifying efforts, but what else do we really know? The puzzle will get another big piece filled in at California.

• Robby Gordon switched manufacturers from Ford to Dodge, to the certain delight of his shop workers. That must have been fun to tell his workers that they were switching car makes two weeks before the biggest race of the season. It’s like a history professor telling his students two weeks before the final that the test will now be on economics.

  The move is actually a good one for Gordon. Joining a specific team like GEM will grant him direct access to information and resources where at Ford he was simply in line behind Roush, Yates and Wood Brothers. Gordon, in part due to the cancellation of the Dakar Rally, was facing a money crunch. GEM has money, technology and three cars to pull information from. Evernham also gets some benefits. They get a fourth car to gather information from and gain additional associate sponsors. I’m curious what the technical relationship is. Is it a fourth car for GEM or simply a satellite team like Haas-CNC or Hall of Fame Racing?

• I’m pretty much over the fact that NASCAR’s title sponsorship has changed three times since 2003. Nextel, Sprint, AT&T, whatever. The one thing that does bug me is using Nextel or Sprint Cup when referring to races prior to 2004. Dale Earnhardt and Richard Petty do not have 7 Sprint Cup titles or 7 Nextel championships. They don’t even have 7 Winston Cups. They have 7 Cups.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr was rumored to have a Super Bowl commercial featuring camel racing. It didn’t show up while I was watching, but you can see it here. A pretty typical Jr spot, showcasing his humor.

  Speaking of Junior, his new firesuit is designed by Adidas and features the Clima-Cool technology.
  

  Dale Jr. will debut his new three stripes on February 17 at Daytona 500. Working closely with the adidas Innovation Team, they have created a race suit featuring advanced ClimaCool technology. With extreme temperatures in the car, ClimaCool will lower Dale Jr.’s body temperature and combat fatigue, allowing him to be more alert and responsive in those final laps.

  It’s interesting that both Amp and Adidas emphasize keeping him cool and comfortable in the car.

• Finally, a quick update on a few housekeeping things. It is hitting crunch time for my driver previews. This week will feature previews for Jamie McMurray, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Casey Mears and Greg Biffle, among others. In an attempt to cram them all in before the Daytona 500, I’ve started to post on Saturdays. If you missed this past week, check out the archives for drivers like Kasey Kahne, Bobby Labonte and Juan Pablo Montoya. In addition to the previews I’m also working on redesigning the site for better usability and look. There are a lot of things that have been neglected (feeds, links etc) that need to be fixed.

  If you are a Fantasy NASCAR fan, be sure to check out the Champs, Chumps and Sleepers game over at One Bad Wheel. Even if you don’t play fantasy sports games, stop on by. There’s a lot of really good NASCAR content, right now they’re covering a different car number each day until Daytona, and you might even see a familiar face.

For more NASCAR news and opinion check out Racing Nation.

If you made a list of sentimental picks to win a race or have a successful season Bobby Labonte and the #43 car would probably each make the list. Since Labonte drives the #43 makes it an even easier call. It seems like everyone roots for good things from the historic Petty operation. Since joining the team in 2006, Labonte has driven the #43 car to heights not seen in years. The next step is a win. Is it possible in 2008?

If 2006 was a return to respectability for the #43, 2007 was about maintaining that progress. Labonte gained three points positions to finish 18th. It was his best finish since 2004, and Petty Enterprises best finish since 1999 when John Andretti finished 17th. In 2006 Labonte had 8 DNF’s including 4 for engine failures. The DNF number dropped to 3 in 2007 with zero engine-related DNF’s. Both figures are significant signs of progress for Petty Enterprises.

Labonte was again solid on short tracks and had several good runs. He also took to the CoT pretty well. His average CoT finish was 21.8. While his top 5’s and top 10’s declined from 2006, he managed to run more laps and finish more races. Labonte also scored one of the more popular Busch wins in 2007 with a slingshot pass of teammate Tony Stewart to win at Talladega. The move was indicative of his plate racing prowess. It’s also seen on the Cup side, although it’s not always seen in the results. That’s the nature of plate racing, though.

The biggest problem for the Petty cars is that they simply can’t run up front on a consistent basis. Labonte is still a capable driver, but without the tools and information that the larger teams have, his success is limited. Moving their shop closer to Charlotte, the capital of NASCAR, will help. Their talent pool for crew and shop members increases immensely. The dividends will show up, but probably not immediately in 2008.

The #43 team is beginning to have a Hendrick flavor. GM Robbie Loomis, former crew chief for Jeff Gordon, recruited former crewmate Jeff Meendering from Hendrick Motorsports to head up the #43 team. Meendering was the car chief for the #24 team. So once again Labonte begins the season with another new crew chief, his 5th in less than three years with PE. He has had relative success with each of the crew chiefs in his time at Petty, but rarely right off the bat. It has typically taken a few months for Labonte’s team to gel and that transition period has to be expected again. If Labonte and company aren’t ready to run for top 10’s right away, any Chase visions will evaporate.

Despite some disadvantages in the equipment, Labonte is still capable of running near the front at places like Bristol, Martinsville, Atlanta, Texas and Phoenix. Given how much he has accomplished at the Cup level, it’s sometimes easy to forget that he’s only 43. A top 20 points finish might be tougher to attain this year, but 5-6 top tens with 1 or 2 top five finishes is probably realistic. Can Labonte win a race for Petty? The competition for wins and top 5’s will be fierce. A lot of things will have to fall into place for Labonte and Meendering to visit Victory Lane. It’s not impossible at a place like Martinsville, but realistically it’s out of reach this year. The short answer is no, but with all of the moves PE is making, the answer could turn into a yes sooner than later.

Rebound. That’s the big buzz word for Kasey Kahne and the #9 team entering 2008. It not only describes his on track performance but also his public image. On the track Kasey Kahne didn’t win a race, scored his first top 5 in August and had only 8 top 10’s all season. He was usually fast on Fridays, but would sink like a mob-hit victim in concrete shoes on Sundays.

His off track image also took a few hits. Kahne appeared entitled at times during the 2007 season. At Richmond he got into a wreck with David Stremme and then blamed Stremme for the crash while taking personal shots at Stremme’s physique. He also insinuated intentionally crashing at Phoenix late in the year. The incident that made the most news was a run-in with a security guard at Homestead. The details are unclear, but the result was a pending lawsuit that claims Kahne shoved the security guard to the ground. Not exactly the squeaky clean, boy-next-door image Kahne had developed in his first three Cup seasons.

The season began on a good note. Kasey Kahne and Elliott Sadler both scored top 10’s at Daytona. When the Cup teams hit the intermediate tracks it was discovered that the Everham cars had miscalculated the baseline when building their speedway cars. This meant the cars were a handful and rendered uncompetitive. So Kahne and teammates Elliott Sadler and Scott Riggs spent the bulk of 2007 turning laps instead of running at the front of the pack.

Evernham was able to at least solve some of the issues on the #9 car and by late summer Kahne was again running in the top ten. His best effort came at Bristol when he dominated. Winning the pole, leading 305 laps and finishing 2nd to Carl Edwards. Of his 8 top ten finishes, 6 came in the final 12 races, including four on intermediate tracks.

Kahne has a lot of positives to cling to entering 2008. His team director Kenny Francis returns for the third straight season. The two won 6 races together in 2006 and obviously have a good understanding. Ray Evernham also has a new, more specialized role at GEM. Instead of trying to do everything at the company, Evernham can now focus on the competition aspect of the company. That means he is free to float among the different departments and address specific problems. All three cars should enjoy this benefit, none more than Kahne’s ride. Another positive is the added funding that new sponsor Budweiser will contribute.

Which way will GEM go in ’08? Given that it’s an even year, Kasey Kahne figures to have a nice season. In ’04 and ’06 Kahne averaged 12.5 top 5’s and 16.5 top 10’s. In ’05 and ’07 his averages were 3 top 5’s and 8 top 10’s. Given the small sample size it says two things. One, it’s probably not a very reliable predictor, but also that Evernham has typically been slow to adapt to changes. 2005 was the introduction of the new aero-package and 2007 was the CoT. 2008 is another year of change with the CoT going full time plus Dodge’s introduction of a new engine midseason. That means Kahne sustaining success is no sure thing. He is still growing as a driver, but his wheelhouse for success stems from intermediate tracks. This program is more reliant on equipment than any other piece of the NASCAR schedule. That means his success is more closely tied to GEM than Sadler’s or Carpentier’s might be. His best speedway tracks are Atlanta, Michigan, and California, but he is also a front runner at Bristol, Darlington and especially Richmond. Since his rookie year, Kahne has also been one of the best qualifiers in Cup. That continued in 2007 when he scored two poles and had an average start of 14.3. A reasonable prediction for Kahne is 1 win, 9-10 top 5’s, and 12-14 top 10’s. Matching his 6 win season of two years ago will be tough, but he will be in the mix for a Chase spot. The keys will be the team’s speedway program and how Kahne does on the other tracks like short tracks and road courses.

Juan Pablo Montoya entered NASCAR in 2007 with an accomplished racing resume, but only one Cup start and a handful of other scattered stock car races. It was considered a great experiment by Chip Ganassi. Could an open wheel driver succeed in the less precise, more grueling world of stock car racing? Montoya answered that question with an emphatic yes. The bigger question now is, “Can he win on an oval?”

He won his first race at the Mexico City Busch race in the first two months of the season. He scored his first Cup top 5 at Atlanta in race 4 and won his first Cup race at Sonoma in June. He also finished 2nd at the Brickyard 400 at a track where he won in Indy cars 7 years earlier. In the most telling sign that he had arrived as a stock car driver, Montoya got into a yelling and shoving match with Kevin Harvick the next week at Watkins Glen.

Overall Montoya’s season was a pretty typical rookie effort. He had some nice runs mixed in with several disappointing ones. He only had 4 DNF’s, all due to crashes, but did have 10 sub-30 finishes. He won a race, but everyone including Montoya conceded that real progress will be measured on the ovals.

The road courses were an obvious strength so it was no surprise when he won both the Mexico City and Sonoma races. Beyond those two races he also had nice runs at Atlanta, Texas, Indianapolis and Dover. Maybe the most impressive finish was his 8th place run at Martinsville. Few tracks pose a more physical challenge than the tiny paperclip-shaped track. The fact that Montoya survived the beating and banging and avoided the carnage to post a good finish is more impressive than winning a road course or running well on a wide open track like Atlanta or Texas.

Montoya quickly proved himself as a good qualifier. He had 8 top ten starts including a season best 2nd achieved at Indianapolis, Bristol and Dover. Whether by design or plain rookie inexperience, Montoya almost always dropped out of the top 10 in these races.

Aside from his obvious ability on road courses, Montoya also found success at 1.5 mile tracks, most notably Atlanta. He scored top tens in both the Busch and Cup series’. Texas and Indianapolis comprised his other speedway top tens.

Ganassi said he expects Montoya to make the Chase. Maybe that’s a source of motivation or inspiration for Montoya and his crew, but don’t count on it. Montoya’s driver rating was 67.7 for the 2007 season. He also only had 6 top 10 finishes. He needs to seriously improve both of those numbers (85.0 rating and 12-15 top 10’s) before the Chase is a real option.

Considering the equipment Ganassi has had in recent years, the Chase will not happen. Ganassi and the Dodges as a whole need serious improvement. While the speedway program improved, their short track CoT game was off. Now the CoT runs full time in 2008 and it’s hard to imagine the company catching any of the top teams car-wise.

Montoya is sure to improve in year two of stock car racing. His knowledge and comfort of the cars and what adjustments to ask for will allow for more consistent runs. The biggest concern for Montoya might be his aggressive, sometimes stubborn approach. The closer to the front he runs, the more respect and patience he will have to display. If he doesn’t heed to the other top drivers, he won’t last long up front before someone. Ganassi obviously disagrees, but Montoya is not ready to challenge the top drivers on a weekly basis and Ganassi doesn’t have the tools in place yet either. Improving his final point standing to the upper teens is possible. For the answer to the biggest question regarding an oval win, it’s a “not this year”.

Quick, what’s the first word that comes to mind when JJ Yeley is mentioned? Crash? Wreck? Wadded sheetmetal? Maybe DNF? It’s an easy word association based on his Busch record and Cup starts entering 2007. But perception does not always match reality, and in 2007 Yeley went a long way towards erasing that image. His basic numbers didn’t change that much (1 top 5, 3 top 10’s compared to 0, 3 in 2006) but his point position improved dramatically from 29th to 21st. The biggest reason? His crash numbers went way down, which meant he was running for positions at the end of races instead of turning laps in a dented ride.

Despite the noted improvement, Yeley’s future with Gibbs was set to expire. Maybe the first sign was the fact that Yeley had to find a different owner in order to race in the Busch Series. Later in the season rumors popped up about Yeley not having his contract renewed. Things didn’t help when Dale Earnhardt Jr was shopping his services to teams including Gibbs.

The rumors eventually became truth and after two seasons in the #18 with Joe Gibbs Racing, Yeley was replaced with Kyle Busch. From a competition standpoint it’s hard to blame Gibbs for the switch, because it’s clearly an upgrade. Yeley quickly found a ride with Gibbs’ satellite team Hall of Fame Racing in favor of outgoing driver Tony Raines. Like Busch hopping in the #18 car, Yeley is an upgrade over Raines in the #96 car.

For Yeley’s part, he was never going to get more attention than Tony Stewart or Denny Hamlin and probably didn’t get the full chance to prove himself in the #18. Now he will get similar equipment, but probably more exclusive attention from the team.

Hall of Fame Racing (HoF Racing) has access to a lot of tools that other small teams typically don’t. First their alignment with Gibbs’ vast resources and data is a huge step up. They also get technical support from the parent company, which is a huge benefit towards the CoT.

The other big factor will come from Hall of Fame’s switch to Toyota. The Camry promises great horsepower, deep pockets from Toyota and the motivation to improve on last year’s embarrassing debut. It’s a pretty compelling argument for Yeley and HoF Racing to better their 2007 numbers.

It’s a critical season for HoF Racing, and as a result Yeley might have additional pressure to perform. Their primary sponsor Texas Instruments DLP is one of the highest profile sponsors in NASCAR. After two honeymoon seasons, DLP might demand to see some real return on their investment. That poses a few questions to Jeff Moorad, Tom Garfinkel, and Tom Davin the new principal owners of HoF. How much time does Yeley get to adjust to the new team? Will they again opt for a road course ringer like Ron Fellows to ensure top results? Do they have plans to expand to a second car to leverage more testing and information gathering?

Yeley has the chance to bring HoF to a new level. If he can take advantage of the support from Toyota and Gibbs, bettering his 1 top 5 and 3 top 10’s is certain. Yeley’s greatest strength is at tracks like Loudon, Richmond and his and the team’s home track Phoenix. This type of track requires fine car control, exactly the kind Yeley developed in his USAC and IRL days. With the strong competition for top 20 spots, repeating his 21st points position is really the most the team can hope for. Even that would mark a four spot jump for HoF over last year’s 25th owners points result. Yeley has a lot of tools at his disposal, the question is how will he use them?

Reed Sorenson’s official website touts him as “a star of the future”. That’s a pretty accurate description and “future” also keeps things in the right perspective. Sorenson is entering his third full time season in Cup, and while it might be easy to say it’s a critical season, it’s easy to forget a few things.

Sorenson celebrates his 22nd birthday two weeks before the Daytona 500. Most drivers don’t make it to the top level of NASCAR until their mid 20’s. That sets up the second point. His fellow 2006 rookies, Martin Truex, Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer and even JJ Yeley are all older and had more racing experience prior to Cup. To compare Sorenson against their progress and accomplishments is a little unfair. One is a project while the other is closer to a finished product. It would be like expecting a rookie quarterback to have as much immediate success as a running back or linebacker. It’s not a fair comparison. Last year no one expected David Ragan to be Juan Pablo Montoya’s equal, so why would Sorenson be any match initially for a two-time Busch champion like Truex or drivers like Hamlin and Bowyer that had 5 or 6 more years of experience? The other factor is harder to gauge, but the cars Sorenson drives at Ganassi are typically inferior to the ones at Gibbs, DEI or RCR.

Another important point is that almost every young driver has other veteran drivers to lean on for advice and guidance. Last year Sorenson had David Stremme and Montoya as teammates, both inexperienced at the Cup level. Sorenson has never had an elder driver on his team.

With all of that said, it is fair to measure Sorenson’s progress and see if he is actually improving. The answer to that question does not hold much hope. His point position improved, but his overall numbers didn’t improve very much. He had fewer laps led, fewer laps completed, more DNF’s and a higher average finish than 2007. He had some nice moments like his pole win at Indy and his three top five finishes, but typically Sorenson was struggling with wrecks and finishing races. His consistency was a major problem. He had consecutive top 20 finishes twice last year. Otherwise the season looked like a graph of a volatile stock with huge peaks and valleys.

Team Ganassi posted improvements in their speedway program in 2007, which Sorenson took advantage of at places like Atlanta and especially Indianapolis. At the Brickyard 400, Sorenson won the pole, ran in the top 10 all day and finished 5th. Teammate Montoya also finished 2nd. Intermediate tracks are Sorenson’s obvious strength.

If the Sprint Cup only ran at Atlanta Sorenson might be a champ. The Peachtree, Georgia native has three top tens and one top five in four career races. He finished 9th and 3rd in the 2007 races.

Ganassi’s gains on speedways did not translate to the CoT. Sorenson had one top ten finish (fall Talladega) in 17 CoT races. Part of this can relate to Sorenson’s weakness at road courses and short tracks, but equipment is also a factor. The equipment quality is one of the biggest questions for Sorenson and Ganassi entering 2008. Manufacturer Dodge is in flux, and the level of support it can offer its teams is the lowest of the four NASCAR manufacturers.

Whether the equipment improves or not, Sorenson must display better skill in avoiding accidents. He had seven finishes of 40th or worse. That’s an indication of not only wrecking (13 crashes and 4 crash-induced DNF’s) but wrecking early. Think about this for a second: JJ Yeley is known for crashing, and his 17 wrecks in 2006 were most in Cup. In Yeley’s second season he reduced that number to a respectable 9. Sorenson’s numbers have stayed high over the same period (mind you Sorenson is 9 years younger than Yeley). This is the biggest weakness for Sorenson and if it doesn’t improve, the quality of his cars is a non-issue.

Sorenson is also still looking for his first top ten finish at a track one mile and under. He has had some decent runs at places like Dover and Loudon, but didn’t score the finishes.

All of this is not to say Sorenson is a bust or will never make it at the Cup level. He has an excellent chance to be a good driver for a long time. The point is more to temper expectations and show that his breakthrough might still be a few years away. Not every young driver will be Kyle Busch and instantly ascend to elite driver status.

So what does this mean for 2008? Improving his overall consistency is priority number one. Reducing his crashes to 9 or 10 opens the door for a huge gain in points. If he took four sub-40th place finishes and turned them into three 20th place finishes, that’s an increase of at least 240 points. It doesn’t sound like much, but that was the difference between Sorenson’s 22nd place finish and 18th place. The other areas that need tuning, like short tracks and road courses, will come with more experience. He has run well at these kinds of tracks in the Busch Series, so it’s only a matter of time and comfort. Sorenson is a talented driver and could have a breakout season. The Chase is out of reach, but cracking double digit top tens and a top 20 points finish are two good goals. It might not show up this year, but Sorenson is someone to keep an eye on in the future.

With so many changes in the NASCAR world in recent years, it’s easy to assume all the changes are for the worst. When Nationwide was announced as the new title sponsor of NASCAR’s second tier series, it was met by many fans with a suspicious squint. It didn’t help matters when they asked fellow car insurer Geico to leave the sport within two years. But that doesn’t mean that Nationwide was not a good move for NASCAR and their second tier series. Last week as part of the NASCAR Sprint Series Media Tour, Nationwide hosted a breakfast to
announce several new initiatives for the 2008 NASCAR Nationwide Series. John Aman, strategic sponsorship officer for Nationwide gave some insight into the sponsor’s plans for the series.

On emerging from Anheuser-Busch’s shadow:

We know that out of habit, it will be easy to refer to the series by its
former name. Nationwide will be placing “name jars” at tracks, shops and
other sites across the NASCAR community. Throughout the 2008 season,
we’re asking folks to drop a dollar into the jar every time they let the
old name slip. At the end of the season we’ll match the money collected
and donate it to the NASCAR Foundation. We know we’re the new kid on the
block, but we hope this will serve as a friendly reminder that the
Nationwide Insurance is the new sponsor of the NASCAR Nationwide Series.

Too often NASCAR is slow to acknowledge the obvious. The fact that Nationwide enters the sport with the realization that it will take time to convince fans and forge their own identity is a good start. The company is essentially saying, “We’re not Busch, we won’t try to be Busch, but stick around because we have some stuff to offer that Busch never did (more on this later). Taking a humorous approach via the swear jars is different, bold and a good way to announce the new sponsor. Having the proceeds go to charity is also an easy way into a skeptical NASCAR fan’s heart.

Another tack the company is taking is partnering on a new fantasy game:

The Up to Speed Challenge is going to be a lot of fun for fans
because it will provide a chance to experience NASCAR Nationwide Series
racing action like never before. Each week fans can log on to ESPN.com
to pick winning drivers in a series of “speed” categories. Throughout
the season they will have a chance to earn points for a chance to win
some truly incredible prizes.

One fan with the highest point total at the end of the season will win a
$100,000 grand prize. Weekly winners will get some of the best seats at
the track or autographed merchandise.

Fans should plan on logging onto ESPN.com before Daytona to test their
smarts and get “Up to Speed” on their favorite NASCAR Nationwide Series
drivers throughout the season. Additional details and complete official
rules will be available soon at ESPN.com.

Fantasy sports are huge. It has the power to pull in occasional viewers, familiarize them with the sport and convert them to regular fans. One of the knocks on the series lately has been the lack of identifiable stars that are not Cup regulars. With a fantasy game devoted to the series, the door is now open for Cup fans to learn more about drivers like Marcos Ambrose, Brad Coleman or Stephen Wallace.

Perhaps the biggest reason that Nationwide will improve the series is with the checkbook:

We’re also very pleased to announce that in 2008,
Nationwide will make the largest sponsor contribution in series history
to the NASCAR Nationwide Series points fund. We hope this will increase
the level of competition and provide additional resources for NASCAR
Nationwide Series teams.

This is where the biggest change sits. Annheuser-Busch paid a fraction of the cost to be the title sponsor of the Grand National series. That’s good for their exposure, but not for the teams that spend millions getting their cars to the tracks each week only to see a pittance of the money that the Cup race makes. More money in the series means more teams will hopefully see a financial benefit to participating in the series. It may take a few years, but in the long term that means more teams, greater resources and ideally better drivers and tougher competition. And that’s all race fans truly want to see anyway. Now all we have to do is think of a good nickname for the Cup drivers that race in the Nationwide series…

Thanks to Rachelle Lacroix for passing this release along on behalf of Nationwide.

“We had a rookie out there that was kind of a dart with no feathers out there.” That was Tony Stewart’s assessment of David Ragan’s first Cup race in 2006. After a full 2007 season under his belt, Ragan is quickly gaining respect at NASCAR’s top level. That ascent will continue in 2008 as he looks to take advantage of Roush Racing’s top notch equipment.

Considering the circumstances, Ragan was bound to struggle in 2007. He had two prior Cup races, one being featherless dart debacle at Martinsville. He inherited the famous #6 car from the very legend that made the car famous, Mark Martin. He was also driving for one of the top teams in NASCAR, Roush Racing, that had won 33 races and 2 championships from 2003-2006. Few drivers would instantly flourish in that setup.

Despite the long odds, Ragan showed why Jack Roush picked him for the #6 car. A top five in the Daytona 500, a great 3rd place showing at Richmond and a 23rd place finish in the points. Ragan also finished 5th in the Busch series on his way to Rookie of the Year.

Ragan’s biggest downfall in 2007 was wrecks. His 22 crashes were most in Cup in 2007. For reference, the median number among drivers was 12. He only had 4 DNF’s, but the crashes played a major part in his 13 sub-30 finishes.

2008 presents lots of reason for optimism for Ragan. The high crash number is bound to come down with more seat time. More experience also means he’ll be in better position to take advantage of Roush’s equipment. Last year was a subpar year by Roush’s normal standards, but this year should see improvement. The company has always had strong speedway cars and with the full transition to the CoT, their expertise will come to the forefront more than last year. For Ragan, that could mean large improvement. Last year he only led 2 laps and had a mere 16 lead lap finishes (interestingly more than fellow rookie Juan Pablo Montoya). Both of those numbers should spike. The intermediate program is often the toughest type of track for a rookie anyway, so better cars and more experience in year two is a good combination.

In his short time, Ragan has already proven a quality restrictor plate race. Beyond his 5th and 12th places runs at Daytona, he also had a 17th at Talladega, plus a 4th place in the Talladega Busch race. While some people will say plate racing is a lot of luck, it is a pretty unique discipline that requires patience, finesse and the intelligence and vision to avoid developing wrecks. Besides, what race doesn’t involve some level of luck? It wouldn’t be a complete shock to see Ragan run well right out of the gate at Daytona. Other places that he could stand out at include Texas, Charlotte and Fontana.

When it comes to analyzing David Ragan, the biggest thing to remember is that he’s 22. He had two top fives in 2007, and doubling that tally is realistic. The competition will increase the higher he climbs on the track, so wins and challenging for a Chase spot is a little premature. More reasonable goals would be 4 top 5’s, 6-7 top 10’s and improving on his 15 top 20’s. A top 20 final point standing is definitely within reach. The progress will come in 2008, but Ragan has already proven that he is more than a dart with no feathers.