Trouble in Turn2

The final race of the season is parade of “lasts” for many different reasons. It’s the final race in “the old” car, making way for a full season of the CoT. With that in mind, will drivers and crews care about tearing up a car that will have zero Cup value? Maybe it will be like that episode of Beverly Hills 90210 where the Walsh house is sold, so the gang throws a huge party and destroys the property. I fear I’ve revealed too much about my high school television habits. The phasing in of the CoT also means the final race for Chevy in the Monte Carlo. Considering all the cars look the same and it only gets worse with the CoT, this is not much of a milestone.

Saturday also marks the last Busch race as well as the nasty byproduct known as Buschwhackers. Actually the Cup guys will probably still plague the lower division, but they will have a new name. As for the title sponsor Nationwide takes the reins and starts the clock on booting Geico out of the series. It will be more significant when Lauren Wallace is forced out of the sport. Then you will see fans truly make some noise.

Speaking of title sponsors, Homestead is the last race in the “Nextel” Cup. The Sprint Cup takes over next year. It’s not quite the same as switching from Winston to Nextel. Again, you’ll probably hear this “last” mentioned, but really what’s the big deal?

The Ford 400 is also the final race for Ricky Rudd and it’s probably he will quietly slip away just like he did after 2005. Depending on how qualifying goes, Sterling Marlin might be making his final Cup start as well. There are no plans for 2008 and his 2007 season was abruptly interrupted when Ginn Racing couldn’t find enough change in the couch to keep Marlin’s team running. Marlin will most likely attempt some races in 2008, but the ship carrying a full time program has sailed for Sterling. Like Marlin, longtime Cup stalwart Ken Schrader’s timetable was also forced forward. If more Cup races aren’t in the cards for Schrader, it’s a safe bet he will find a race somewhere, including his own I-55 racetrack.

Several high profile drivers will move on next year after Miami. Dale Earnhardt Jr will go out in a blaze of glory at DEI, most likely from another blown engine. Kyle Busch might take the opportunity to pout or blame someone else for not winning the race. Joe Gibbs Racing will also move to Toyota, bidding GM adieu.

Sunday will also be the final race under the current format before Brian France modifies the season to a weighted scoring system that will award an extra 20 points per win, an extra 50 points for winning a jewel event at Daytona, Bristol, Charlotte or Indianapolis and 20 million points for the winner at Homestead. That way the Sprint Cup is always in doubt until the final lap of the final race of the season (note: this one may or may not be realized).

• While most drivers are ready for the offseason for a variety of reasons, some drivers are just hitting their stride. After racing below his standards for most of 2008, Matt Kenseth has turned it up during the Chase. He has 4 straight top 5’s entering Homestead. Of course that was before the announcement that crew chief Robbie Reiser was promoted to GM of Roush-Fenway. Reiser is the only crew chief Kenseth has had during his Cup career. The change won’t affect Kenseth’s race on Sunday much, but as the team prepares for 2008 is where Reiser’s absence will be noticed. It might be a good change, injecting some fresh ideas into the #17 team.

• Can anyone beat Greg Biffle at Homestead? Yes. Tony Stewart has two wins and usually runs well there. He won at Chicago in July, a track with a similar configuration. Martin Truex and Kasey Kahne ran very well last year and also have a chance at winning on Sunday.

• Jimmie Johnson can’t win five straight races. Can he? The two tracks most comparable to Homestead are Las Vegas and Chicago. Johnson won at Vegas and was dominant at Chicago before a flat tire led to a wreck. Yes folks and Hendrick haters, Jimmie Johnson is perfectly capable of winning five straight. Doing it is another thing altogether.

• My goal for Sunday? Count the number of times someone mentions building momentum for 2008. It’s one of my pet peeves about sports and it’s even worse in NASCAR. How in the world could anything that happens on Sunday relate in any way to anything that happens three months from now?

• Short and Sweet. My pick to win the race is a Penske car. You pick whether it’s Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman, Sam Hornish Jr or Brendan Gaughan (he’s entered, right?).

• I’m not sure how exciting the final race will be, but my tentative plan is to blog during the race and update this space every 10-15 minutes. If you are watching the race and have your laptop up, why not stop by, add some comments and make the day more enjoyable. If you don’t, well I’ll be here on Monday with View From the Couch.

“Two races to go this time by boys!” You can almost hear Larry McReynolds shout something like this. In a year when the Chase format is definitely working, it sure doesn’t feel like it. Maybe it is because the two drivers are teammates, or because no one else is within a sniff of the lead or that the last five races have been won by this duo, but it feels like something is missing. Maybe I haven’t been paying enough attention. I don’t have Speed Channel and prefer to pass on NASCAR Now on ESPN, so maybe I’m missing the excitement. Based on the blogs that I peruse, I don’t think I’m off.

Keep in mind, for me this has nothing to do with Hendrick’s dominance. Right now Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon are both having incredible title-worthy seasons. I am highly impressed with the #48 team’s ability to get to the front and peak at the right time in any race. I don’t know how to prove this (and being the nerd I am, will try to this offseason), but Johnson’s 9 wins in today’s NASCAR might be as, or more impressive than Gordon’s 13 in 1998.

For Gordon’s part, he has 28 top tens and 20 top fives in 34 races. That is not only great consistency, but he is running in the top five every week. He has led the most laps, 1300, and has led 23 of 34 races. If not for a two race slump for the last two weeks, Gordon might have a 60 or 70 point lead right now. I fully expect Gordon to run well and score a top five finish at Phoenix while hopefully closing the gap on Johnson. A 15-20 point gap heading to Homestead would definitely add some juice to the Chase.

Phoenix Notes

• Phoenix is a fun track primarily because the best drivers rise to the top. Of the 12 Chasers, seven have wins, and three others have at least two top fives. Clint Bowyer has one top five in three races and although Martin Truex Jr has not finished as well, he has run in the top five in two of his three races before getting trapped by untimely pit stops. The point is that any of the 12 can run well at Phoenix.

  One of the reasons why the top drivers run well at Phoenix is because it’s a track that requires a lot of driving skill. It’s hard to steal a top 5 at Phoenix by having strong horsepower or unique pit strategy. The racing is tight, making passing very tough. In a race like that the cream rises.

• With his 9th win last weekend, Jimmie Johnson just passed Kevin Harvick for the most money won in 2007. Harvick has only won two races, but they were the Daytona 500 and the similarly lucrative All-Star Race. Two wins at premier events compared to Johnson racking up wins at places with small purses like Martinsville and Atlanta. It sounds strange, but it won’t matter at the end of the season when Johnson will take home a very large check for placing 1st or 2nd in the Chase.

• The Chasers have won 30 of 34 races this year including 8 of 9 during the Chase. Is there any reason why this trend would stop at Phoenix? Of course not. Watch out for Clint Bowyer, but it’s Tony Stewart’s turn. He nearly won in the spring, ran well at the fall races at Richmond and Loudon and that often translates well to Phoenix. Of course I realize by saying all of this that a non-Chaser with zero success at Richmond or Loudon will leap up and snatch the trophy. Just in case that happens, I like Tony Raines. I almost wrote that with a straight face.