Trouble in Turn2

Now that Dale Earnhardt Jr has scored his breakthrough win for 2008, who is the next driver to win for the first time this year? Nine different drivers have already won at least one race this year, but there are still a lot of big names looking to kick in the door to Victory Lane. Here’s a list of candidates in order of likeliness.

Aside from crazy circumstances, a team finding something revolutionary, or a road course ringer, I can’t see any other drivers challenging for wins this year. Anyone else you see winning this year?

Silly Season ‘08 is beginning to take shape with several announcements in recent weeks. Monday it was the word that Jamie McMurray may not return (McMurray denies it)with Roush-Fenway Racing for 2009. The move is not shocking based on the fact that the team has to eliminate one car from their squad. The fact that McMurray has not fulfilled his potential also didn’t help. According to Jim Utter of the Charlotte Observer, Roush is also considering moving McMurray’s current sponsor, Crown Royal, to Greg Biffle’s car for 2009. It’s pretty obvious that Biffle will sign a new contract soon. Whether or not the announcement is official, it’s hard to imagine McMurray returning to Roush in 2009.

McMurray’s fate is actually linked to his teammates. Biffle and Carl Edwards were both top free agents for 2009 and had either left the organization, McMurray would probably be safe for next year. Unfortunately, Edwards signed a new deal last month and Biffle is close to following suit. That means McMurray is the answer to a simple math equation. McMurray is the most expendable driver in the Roush company. Biffle and Edwards are obviously having great seasons and have won 22 races combined in their careers. Matt Kenseth, while struggling this season, is a past Cup champion and a consistent threat to win races. David Ragan is a 22 year old driver with big potential and is outperforming McMurray in 2008. Five minus one equals McMurray. (On a side note, I wonder if Jack Roush will try to spin it as NASCAR’s fault for making him cut a team?)

What happens to McMurray now will be very interesting. At this point the only top tier team looking for a driver is RCR. Otherwise his options are probably limited to a second-tier team like DEI. Other teams will have openings as the season progresses, but signing on with a quality team is crucial for McMurray. In the current Cup environment things can slide quickly on a driver. Look at Jeremy Mayfield or JJ Yeley. How will other teams perceive McMurray? As a talented driver that needs a clean break or someone that failed with one of the elite Cup teams?

Despite his low stock right now, McMurray is tremendously talented and only three years ago barely missed making the Chase. He is capable of running well on almost any type of track. From short tracks, restrictor plate races to road courses, he is adept at everything NASCAR offers. He’s scored a top ten at every Cup track except Phoenix. He has two Cup wins and seven career Busch/Nationwide wins, including four straight at Rockingham.

The trouble is that he has not found success on a consistent basis. After his win last July at Daytona he finished 26th or worse in six straight races. He also fell outside the top 35 after this year’s Bristol. The other problem is that better drivers could potentially be available on the free agent market. It’s far from disaster, but it’s also far from what McMurray imagined when he signed a deal with Roush three years ago.

Dale Jarrett didn’t make his Cup debut until age 27, much later than contemporaries like Mark Martin, Ricky Rudd, Bill Elliott and Terry Labonte. This is somewhat surprising considering his family’s ties to the sport. With a late start it’s even more impressive what Jarrett accomplished in his NASCAR Cup career. Jarrett won 3 Daytona 500’s, 2 Brickyard 400’s and scored 32 career wins. His 32 wins are tied for 20th all-time. He is also 18th in top 5’s (163) and top 10’s (260).

Jarrett made his debut at Martinsville in 1984 driving the #02 car for NASCAR legend Emanuel Zervakis. In fact Jarrett was the last person to drive a Cup car for Zervakis. Jarrett finished a respectable 14th in his debut race and took home a check for $1,515 for his efforts.

Jarrett spent the mid 1980’s bouncing around at the Cup level, driving for Eric Freedlander, Hoss Ellington, and Cale Yarborough among others. His big breakthrough came in 1990 when he was signed to drive the Wood Brothers famous #21 car. He scored his first win in the Champion Spark Plug 400 at Michigan in 1991. It was his 129th Cup start. In today’s Cup world a driver that took 129 starts to score his first win would probably not still have a top ride. On the strength of his win and 8 top tens he finished 17th in the final point standings, his best to date.

His breakthrough season didn’t come until he joined an upstart Joe Gibbs Racing team to drive the #18 Interstate Batteries car. 1992 was a transition year for Jarrett and the brand new Gibbs organization., but a 3rd place finish at the Pepsi 400 hinted at Jarrett’s future Daytona success. The following year saw Jarrett win his first Daytona 500 with father Ned calling the race on television. It is still one of the most famous calls in Daytona 500 history. The win was part of a strong season ending in a fourth place points result.

After three seasons with Gibbs, Jarrett joined Robert Yates Racing to replace an injured Ernie Irvan in the famous #28 car. After Irvan returned Yates started a second team to keep Jarrett. This team became the #88 that Jarrett enjoyed some of his best performances. For a six year stretch from 1996 to 2001 he was one of the elite drivers, compiling 24 wins, 107 top 5’s and 138 top 10’s.

The ultimate payoff finally came in 1999 when Jarrett and Yates won their first, and only Cup championship beating Bobby Labonte and the #18 car by 201 points. Jarrett won 4 races, and had an incredible 24 top 5’s in 34 races. His average finish was also a video game-like 6.8. It was the peak of Jarrett’s career and came in the middle of a dominant period where he finished in the top five in points for six straight seasons.

Jarrett didn’t win as much in the twilight of his career, but he still had a huge following.To newer NASCAR fans Jarrett is also known for his strong connection with sponsor UPS. Their long running ad campaign featuring Jarrett considering racing a UPS truck is always one of the most popular. His calm demeanor and good sense of humor made for some memorable ads. Although Jarrett was usually mellow, he was also competitive and would let people know it when needed, especially at Bristol. His final win came at Talladega in October of 2005. A fitting finish for one of the best restrictor plate drivers ever.

His final stop in his career was a challenge of a different kind. He signed with Michael Waltrip Racing to assist in Toyota’s Cup debut in 2007. Although last year was a disaster having little to do with Jarrett, he been more competitive in 2008. Jarrett deserves a good deal of credit for getting MWR established as a company.

Dale Jarrett is expected to make his final Cup start this Sunday at Bristol. After getting a late start on his racing career, he made sure to pack in the excitement. He will still be around thanks to his seamless transition to television, but fans will definitely remember his on track performances.

If you watch NASCAR on TV, you might think there are only 12 cars in the race. Not true, there are actually 43 stories to follow. Check out what happened to the non-Chasers at the season’s final race.

• 9. Mark Martin Martin had 11 top tens in 24 races. Last season he had 15 top 10’s with a full schedule.

• 10. David Ragan Not a bad way to end the year. A Busch pole, a strong Busch run before wrecking and a top ten in Cup. Watch out in ‘08.

• 11. David Stremme Hey, nice run kid. Now clean out your locker and find a new Cup team. Stremme isn’t an elite driving prospect, but he wasn’t given much of a chance either.

• 12. Dave Blaney Another strong run for Blaney (95.8 driver rating), Toyota’s best driver all year. He’s the only driver that raced a Camry in 2007 that’s locked inside the top 35 for 2008.

• 13. Greg Biffle Apparently Jack Roush gave Biffle’s Homestead car to Matt Kenseth. Greg’s been Punked!

• 14. Jamie McMurray “Get me a bunny… Or a top five.”

• 15. Juan Pablo Montoya When Montoya and Newman were running 4th and 5th, who else was waiting for a wreck? Alas.

• 16. Casey Mears The final race for the #25 car that some believe is cursed. True or not, Mears had his best season to date.

• 17. Dale Jarrett A nice finish for Jarrett, his best effort of the season. He scored his best two finishes in the last four races.

• 18. Ryan Newman Spun out after running in the top 10 the majority of the night. His winless drought is now 2+ seasons.

• 21. Ricky Rudd One of the quietest exits in NASCAR history. For a veteran with 906 career starts they could have at least given him 5 minutes prior to the race.

• 22. Reed Sorenson An anonymous result to cap a disappointing season. Sure it was a sophomore slump, but remember that he’ll only turn 22 in February.

• 23. Bobby Labonte On the track, it was a disappointment, but Labonte is class off the track. It seems like he and Betty Crocker have a new charity effort every week. Check out his latest one.

• 24. Kasey Kahne As the ancient proverb suggests, “if you can’t get attention on the track, shove a security guard.”

• 25. David Reuttimann I hope BK doesn’t return to the car, because I struggled all season to associate Burger King with the gold and black paint scheme. Domino’s was simple.

• 26. Jeremy Mayfield, 27. Robby Gordon Can anyone confirm that Mayfield and Gordon actually ran in the race? I think they kicked in Gordon’s trailer and then hopped into line during the last caution. Prove me wrong.

• 28. Bill Elliott I hope Elliott can get the #21 car into the top 35 next year just so Marcos Ambrose can race at the Cup level.

• 29. Tony Raines Hall of Fame Racing finished 26th in the points last year, 25th this year. Ladies and Gentleman, your 2031 Winston Cup Champion (yeah, they switch back to Winston in 2029).

• 31. JJ Yeley The #18 car apparently had a slow leak on a tire. That’s a pretty good illustration of their season too.

• 32. David Gilliland Had a nice run going until he got loose and wrecked. A nice run was desperately needed for Yates and the #38 team.

• 33. Sterling Marlin Not the final season Marlin likely envisioned. I think we’ll see him back in 2008 for at least Daytona if not more races.

• 34. Kyle Petty The good news is Petty is locked into the top 35 again. Will that begin a transition out of the driver’s seat?

• 35. Paul Menard Menard was the only driver with at least 30 starts to not score a top ten.

• 36. Dale Earnhardt Jr Sometimes you just have to throw your hands up and say whatever.

• 37. Sam Hornish Jr For the first 100 laps Hornish must have been thinking, “This isn’t too bad.” Then he scraped the wall four times. Yes it’s a tough transition to stock cars.

• 38. Elliott Sadler Post race quote, “It’s been a long season for everyone and not the kind of season we expected when we went to Daytona in February. We have work to do this winter. We just have to put this year behind us and get to work on 2008. “

• 40. Patrick Carpentier At least Carpentier qualified for all three of his Cup entries. He is replacing Scott Riggs, who had 5 DNQ’s in 2007.

• 41. Johnny Sauter Sauter got loose and wrecked in his final start for Haas-CNC Music Factory. He might have to settle for Nationwide action in 2008.

• 42. Brian Vickers Checked up to avoid Sauter and wound up in Carpentier’s nose.

• 43. Johnny Benson Blew an engine so he could continue celebrating his Truck Series win.

Coming tomorrow, awards for the best and worst of the 2007 season.

Sam Hornish Jr is coming to NASCAR and if you believe what bloggers say, he has no chance at success. Obviously beginning your Cup career by not qualifying for your first six races is ripe for skepticism, but Hornish has quite a few advantages compared to other open wheel converts.

Penske Power

Of all the recent open wheel imports, Hornish is the guy with potentially the best equipment. Both Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman consistently run in the top ten and with slightly different circumstances could have won 4 or 5 races combined. Compare that to the virgin efforts of Bill Davis and Red Bull at Toyota or the inconsistent outfits at Ganassi and Evernham and it’s pretty clear that Hornish will have room to grow into his equipment rather than the reverse. One point to make here is that Penske’s 3rd car in 2004 and 2005 was a major downer and could remain that way. On the other hand why would they contract in 2006 only to expand again for 2008 unless the team felt more capable of running three cars?

A Good Mentor

When Montoya needed advice he had to rely on two sophomore teammates at the Cup level. Sam Hornish has the luxury of picking the brain of someone who has already made a successful transition, Ryan Newman. Newman came at a younger age, but had a similar learning curve transitioning from USAC to stock cars. Hornish can also tap into Montoya’s and Allmendinger’s experiences from 2007 and learn from some of their bumps and mistakes.

Age

Hornish will turn 28 next July. Excluding A.J. Allmendinger, every open wheel driver is older than 30. Roger Penske can surely afford time to Hornish and that patience could be rewarded later. Most drivers seem to hit their prime sometime in their early to mid 30’s. While Dario Franchitti, Jacques Villeneuve, Patrick Charpentier and even Juan Pablo Montoya are spending their 30’s on a new challenge, Hornish will likely have those years to reach his full potential in a stock car.

Points

This one is still unknown, but if Penske decides to transfer the #2’s points to Hornish’s car it would be a huge step in his stock car growth. Look at Montoya versus Allmendinger this season. A secure Montoya can use every practice for gaining experience and familiarity with stock cars, while Allmendinger has to spend practices doing mock qualifying runs and ensuring the car makes it until Sunday.

Talent

Hornish has 3 IRL titles, an Indy 500 title and 19 career wins. It’s not like he has zero credentials as a driver. It will take time and 2008 has to be considered a transition year, but Hornish may have the best chance of the open wheelers to be a long term star at the Cup level.

For many NASCAR fans, Ricky Rudd and Tide are tied together. It was such a noticeable paint scheme with the orange, yellow and white with the large Tide letters bursting off the hood. Even after Rudd left for Yates Racing leaving the scheme for others to drive it, the Tide car still felt like Rudd’s. Even as a casual NASCAR fan during the 90’s and early 00’s, there were certain paint schemes I could always recognize. Dale Earnhardt’s black Goodwrench, Jeff Gordon’s DuPont and Rudd’s Tide scheme were all on the shortlist.

As the Rooster winds down his career, it’s worth taking the time to appreciate his career. He has seen nearly everything in NASCAR. He’s driven boxy cars that placed the emphasis on driver skill, to aerodynamic cars that perpetuated manufacturer battles, sleek models built in engineering departments and now boxy cars the supposedly place the emphasis on driver skill. All the while Rudd has basically stayed in the background, done his job and done it well.

A 32 year career spanning four decades and 906 starts (through Homestead). Ricky Rudd was rarely considered one of the elite drivers at the Cup level, but to hang on that long he had to have done a few things right. Rudd raced in every single race from 1981 through the end of 2005, an amazing 788 straight races. That includes the legendary 1984 Daytona 500 race when he taped his eyelids open after a bad crash in the exhibition race at Daytona. Fans might not be able to experience racing at 200 mph, but a serious fan should try simply driving to the grocery store with their eyes taped open. He finished 7th.

It isn’t simply about longevity with Rudd, though. He has 23 career wins placing him 26th all time while his 374 top 10’s is sixth best all time. He has 19 top ten points finishes in his career including a best of 2nd in 1991. It’s fitting that his career is bracketed with road course wins on either side be cause Rudd will likely be remembered as being one of the best road racers ever in NASCAR. Rudd’s first win at Riverside in 1983 while his (likely) final trophy came at Sonoma 2002. Rudd’s 6 road course wins leaves him second to only Jeff Gordon on serpentine tracks.

Everything began for the Virginian at Rockingham as an 18 year old in 1975. He finished 11th, albeit 58 laps down to the winner, Cale Yarborough. Things really took off for Rudd in 1981 when he drove the full season scoring 14 top 5’s and 17 top 10’s on his way to a sixth place finish. Aside from an attempt at ownership, Rudd finished in the top ten in points with great consistency. From 1981-2002, Rudd had only four seasons with point finishes outside the top ten. While his ownership exploits did not pan out, he did score one of the biggest wins of his career in 1997, the Brickyard 400. Other highlights included a win at Darlington, 3 wins at Martinsville and 2 at Richmond.

Two years ago Rudd decided to step away from Cup racing. While other drivers like Rusty Wallace, Terry Labonte and Mark Martin (remember when he was retiring?) had large, year long, merchandise-driven farewell tours, Rudd quietly slipped away after the season’s final race. Now after returning for a swan song in 2007 it’s time for someone to look out for Rudd and give him his due. It would be great if Tide and Yates Racing could arrange to sponsor Ricky Rudd at the final race at Homestead. Tide is not a current Cup sponsor and Yates is losing Masterfoods after 2008. It’s probably too late, but it would be a fitting end for someone that has done a lot for both Yates and Tide not to mention NASCAR as a whole.