Trouble in Turn2

I’m always a little confused about Michigan. The track is wide and features several grooves, so drivers can find a place where their cars work best. Because it’s wide, that also means the passing can be rather easy. So is it a fun race because drivers like it or a dull one because the passing is so easy there aren’t great battles for position?

One thing I know is that when it follows Pocono it feels like the race flies by. It’s kind of like working out at the gym next to a big, ripped guy. Your lack of size is amplified in that setting. Pocono is a race that feels like you could watch the Ten Commandments, run some errands and then paint your bedroom before the checkered flag flies, while Michigan feels like it’s over before you can finish your chips and salsa.With a tendency for long green flag runs, the race often boils down to the final pit stop or fuel mileage.

Track Fun Fact of the Week: According to wikipedia (and who would question something on the internet?), Michigan International Speedway also hosts the Michigan High School cross country championship, presumably in the infield. Imagine how discouraging it would be to be running along, feeling good about your pace and then you look over and see Greg Biffle turn a few hot laps at 190 mph.

What Happened Last Year

Carl Edwards continued Roush Racing’s utter dominance of Michigan. Martin Truex appeared to have a better car in the final segment but couldn’t quite pull in Edwards. The win was the first for Edwards in 52 races, and was especially pleasing to his motorcoach driver Tom “Yeti” Giacchi. He had made a deal with Edwards in 2006 that he wouldn’t shave until Edwards won a race.

Notes and Fantasy Tips

• Roush dominates here. Roush has won ten races and their current drivers are good (Carl Edwards 1 win, 4 top 5’s), better (Greg Biffle 2 wins, 4 top 5’s) and best (Matt Kenseth 1 win, 7 top 5’s). Ford and Dodge have split the two Michigan wins each of the past five seasons.

  Meanwhile a Chevrolet (or Pontiac for that matter) has not won at Michigan since 2001 when Jeff Gordon took the checkers. There isn’t a great reason why the bowtie hasn’t won, just a fluke thing that happens in sports sometimes.

• Sunday is Father’s Day. Jame McMurray and Crown Royal are running a special paint scheme to tribute McMurray’s dad along with a personalized message:

  

  So McMurray isn’t big on words, but the message is clear. Many parents sacrifice a lot for their kids and it’s exponentially true in an expensive, traveling sport like auto racing.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Matt Kenseth Kenseth is outstanding at Michigan (11 top 10’s in 17 starts and a 9.7 avg finish). He won the 2006 August race in dominant fashion. Kenseth got out of the gates slowly this year, but is catching up to his teammates.

Chumps: Jeff Burton Burton has avoided trouble and scored a lot of top tens this year. RCR’s intermediate program is a behind Roush, Gibbs, Hendrick, Evernham and even Penske. Burton will struggle this weekend.[Click for more Chumps notes]

Sleepers: Casey Mears Over the last six Michigan races, Mears has the 11th best driver rating (89.0) and 1 top 5 and two top 10’s. At some point he has to run well, right? Right? [Click for more Sleepers notes]

And the winner is…

The easy method would be to draw a Roush-Fenway-Varitek(the joke never gets old to me) driver’s name out of a hat. In that case Todd Kluever is your man. Apparently my Roush Roster is two years old. So Plan B shows that Jimmie Johnson is the man this weekend. I feel it’s also time to institute the “Dale Jr or Kyle Busch could win on any given Sunday” caveat. One is winless and the other has four wins, but both have run in the top five almost every week and led enough laps to prove that a victory from either would not register a surprise.

This week’s Cup race is at the uniquely shaped Poconnnghh. [wakes up]Sorry, Pocono Raceway. In my unofficial poll of Cup drivers I have interviewed, 100% have admitted that the Pocono race can get pretty long. The popular opinion is that Pocono races are at least 100 miles too long. While that may be true, and the actual racing could improve, calling a race at Pocono dull is not always true. Check out a few of the events in recent years:

• June 2004: Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick took turns spinning and hitting each other at the finish line. The spat prompted Harvick to sport a Matt Kenseth T-Shirt the following week at Michigan.
• June 2005: Carl Edwards, having never seen the track in person wins the race. He credits his win to playing a video game simulation.
• June 2006: Denny Hamlin spins, hits the concrete curb, suffers substantial damage while pulling a large patch of grass into the car, and still comes back to win in dominant fashion.
• July 2006: Tony Stewart “teaches” Clint Bowyer a lesson about give and take…by spinning him into Carl Edwards. The innocent victim Edwards responds by spinning Stewart on pit road. A furious Bowyer (utilizing his patented Dolph Lundgren glare) confronts Stewart after the race.

See? That’s why it’s important to watch the race. Monday morning you’ll need to know what to talk about.

What Happened Last Year

Denny Hamlin was on his way to dominating his third straight Pocono race, when rain shuffled everything. The result was Jeff Gordon using pit strategy to gain the lead and then narrowly edging Ryan Newman before the rain fell. It was Gordon’s 4th of six wins and emphasized how teams were willing to gamble on track position in hopes of precious Chase bonus points for wins.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers (on the track, not your couch)

Champs: Ryan Newman He nearly won last year, has the fourth best driver rating (101.9) and his career Pocono line reads 1 win, 5 top 5’s and 6 top 10’s in 12 starts. Penske knows how to set up a car here.

Chumps: Clint Bowyer I admit, this week has me a little stumped. Bowyer has 2 top 10’s in 4 starts, but only a 72.2 driver rating.

Sleepers: Michael McDowell This pick is Sleeper with a capital “S”, but here’s why. He won an ARCA race and finished 6th in the other last year at Pocono. His problem this year has been wrecks, which typically aren’t an epidemic at the long track. Why not?

Who Will Win?

Is Big Brown entered? If not, then you have to look at one organization. Joe Gibbs Racing knows how to get around Pocono. Denny Hamlin has 2 wins, 3 top 5’s and 4 top 10’s in four races. Tony Stewart has 1 win, 5 top 5’s and 13 top 10’s in 18 starts. Maybe JGR has a killer NASCAR simulation game. Whatever it is, Stewart is ready to finally ready to make a deposit in his 2008 win account.

I always used to refer to Dover’s track as Bristol on Steroids. Of course now that is probably cause for a congressional hearing and it would only drag Miles the Monster through the mud. Dover is an exciting track because it’s made of concrete, tough to pass and drivers can get frustrated. One of my favorite finishes of any race in recent years was the duel between Jeff Burton and Matt Kenseth. Burton was on fresh tires but Kenseth made it impossible to pass until the very end. Not only is Dover a track that’s enhanced beyond normal tracks, but so is the name of the race: Best Buy 400 Benefiting Student Clubs for Autism Speaks.

What Happened Last Year

Rain pushed the race to Monday morning and Martin Truex Jr led 216 laps to score his first career Cup win. Unforutnately for Truex, the win was overshadowed by two other events. Kurt Busch was parked after confronting Tony Stewart in the pits and nearly hitting a crew member. Did I mention he was still in his car?

The race also ended on a sad tone when it was announced that Bill France Jr had passed away.

Five Drivers who love Dover

Ryan Newman has 4 poles, 3 wins, 6 top 5’s and 8 top 10’s in 12 career starts. He was a top two car almost the entire race last spring, but unfortunately Martin Truex Jr was simply dominant.

Jimmie Johnson 3 wins, 4 top 5’s and 7 top 10’s in his career at Dover. Johnson almost ran down Truex in last spring’s race but suffered a flat tire in the final green flag run.

Matt Kenseth 1 win in 2006 and 5 top 5’s to boot. Kenseth has led 549 laps since 2004.

Kyle Busch For people that are tired of seeing Shrub run up front and threaten for wins, they might want to turn away. He owns the 5th best driver rating at Dover, 101.5. He has 4 top 5’s in six career starts and probably would have had a fifth top 5 if not for an engine failure at the fall 2006 race.

Greg Biffle won the 2005 spring race. In the last six Dover races he has the highest average driver rating (113.7) among all Cup drivers. He also has 3 top 5’s and 6 top 10’s in 11 career races. Biffle tends to excel at the tight, challenging tracks like Darlington and Dover.

One driver who doesn’t

It’s not that Tony Stewart doesn’t like Dover–he’s won two races– but lately he hasn’t had a lot of fun. In 2006 he had to drive with a broken shoulder blade before getting replaced by Ricky Rudd. Last spring he was headed for a top ten finish when he got together with Kurt Busch and both cars wrecked. That of course set off Busch who used his car to confront Stewart and his crew in the pits. In the last six races Stewart has a 67.7 driver rating, which is almost unheard of for a driver like Smoke.

Other Notes

• Hendrick Motorsports has won 10 races, more than any other team. The last HMS driver to win was Jimmie Johnson in 2005 when they used a tricked-out, although technically legal, shock package. And by technically legal, I mean that NASCAR outlawed the package immediately after the race.

• Mark Martin has led more laps (1799) at Dover than the total number of laps run of 16 drivers on the entry list. That shows two things. There are a lot of drivers with less than three Cup seasons of experience, and two, Mark Martin is awesome.

• The date sneaked up on us, but Sunday is Fox’s final broadcast for 2008. Aside from the Digger nonsense, it has been an outstanding run for the Fox crew. The ball gets passed to TNT for Pocono. Take that for what it’s worth.

• Joey Logano! Joey Logano! Mark Martin has been touting Logano as Cup ready since 2005. Even with Martin’s solid recommendation, the expectations and hype surrounding Logano are nothing short of outrageous (name another Busch East driver that has their own diecasts for sale). Logano’s much anticipated NASCAR Nationwide debut happens this Saturday, and for those that haven’t heard of him, he’s like NASCAR’s answer to LeBron James. Except that LeBron looked like he was a 29 year old linebacker when he entered the NBA at the age of 18. So far in his young driving career Logano has won in almost every series, but the Nationwide series is his biggest challenge yet. The trouble is I think some people will expect him to have immediate success and if he doesn’t, might label him a bust faster than you can say Casey Atwood. We all need to settle down, he hasn’t even made a Cup driver like Denny Hamlin mad yet.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Matt Kenseth If Kenseth is going to rebound this season, he’d better start now. His record at Dover is excellent in recent years.

Chump: Kevin Harvick: It’s doubtful that Harvick will finish in the 30’s, but it’s equally doubtful that he’ll finish in the top ten.

Sleeper: Mark Martin: His record speaks for itself (4 wins, 20 top 5’s, 27 top 10’s). Plus, wouldn’t it be funny to see Martin pose in Victory Lane with Miles the Monster?

Who Will Win?

Kyle Busch is really, really good at Dover. I thought about Greg Biffle or Matt Kenseth, but something is off with Roush lately. Biffle’s pit crew isn’t reliable enough at this point. Dale Earnhardt Jr has shown he can run in the top 5 and lead laps in any and every race, but he is hit or miss at Dover. Right now it’s Shrub’s world.

You did your Fantasy NASCAR homework during the week. You read articles, studied the stats, threw the darts (or if you prefer, illegal lawn darts) randomly at the dartboard and filled out your team. Now it’s the weekend and you still want to fine tune your lineup. Here’s a few more ideas for those last minute lineup decisions.

If a driver has to make the race on speed, it’s tougher to run well.

Teams that have to worry about qualifying well on Fridays puts them at a disadvantage for the entire weekend. Teams inside the top 35 can spend all of their practice times focusing on a fast race setup. Meanwhile “Go Fast or Go Homers” are spending that same time making mock qualifying runs and perfecting their qualifying setups. Cars also get through inspection in the order of their point position. Again, that means less time on the track for the lesser teams.

What Car is your driver bringing?

Racingone.com provides great information about the top drivers and which chassis they will drive in the upcoming race. For example, at this weekend’s Richmond race, Denny Hamlin will drive the same car that he won in at Martinsville. That’s a good sign. Greg Biffle is also bringing his Martinsville car. He finished 20th in that race.

Look at Practice Times With a Grain of Salt

As the esteemed Flava Flav used to say, “Don’t believe the hype!” Websites and announcers often tout the drivers that are fastest in practice sessions. All that means is they had the fastest lap of practice. All teams treat practices differently. Some are working on qualifying runs, while others are tuning their car for long, green flag runs in race trim. Sometimes teams feel confident in what they have and are simply focusing on one or two adjustments to the car. Dale Earnhardt Sr used to skip entire practice sessions when he felt comfortable with his weekend ride. When scanning practice times, it’s helpful to look at all the numbers for better context. Look at the average speed, and total number of laps run, rather than just their best single lap time.

Also keep in mind what time of day the sessions are held. This is especially key with three straight night races on the schedule. A practice session during the day will create different conditions compared to the cooler, gripper night temperatures. Weather can also change the track conditions, as we saw last year with both the Richmond and Darlington spring races delayed by rain.

Don’t Overthink Your Selections

NASCAR is loaded with variables, which is both a blessing and a curse. It makes for great, unpredictable races, but can also occasionally cause Fantasy players to throw up their arms in bewilderment. In the end if it is causing you stress over who to start, keep it simple. Don’t try and outsmart yourself by trying to account for everything. It will make your head spin and your team may still wind up in shambles.

Races at Richmond are awesome. They’re short (in both time and track size), at night, feature competitive action and often offer up good theater in the way of feuds. Need more reasons?

What happened last year

It rained. As a result the race was moved from Saturday night to Sunday afternoon and Jimmie Johnson exercised his Richmond demons to win the first of his season sweep at the track. Hendrick cars took three of the top four spots in the spring race. Of course the bigger news that week was Dale Earnhardt Jr putting in his seven month notice that he was leaving DEI. That set off an onslaught of speculation about where the high-profile driver would wind up after the season. Sound familiar?

Quick Notes

• Tony Stewart has 12 top 10 finishes in 18 career Richmond starts. He also has three wins, although none since 2002.

• Until last year Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon both struggled at Richmond. Then Johnson won both races and Gordon scored two fourths. Gordon had not finished better than 31st in his previous four tries and Johnson had only one other finish (2nd in 2004) inside the top 10.

• Casey Mears is the only current Cup driver with more than four starts without a top ten at Richmond. Mears has ten starts with a best finish of eleventh in 2006.

• The first Richmond race was held in 1953 won by Lee Petty. 27 cars started the 200 lap event. The race was run on dirt until 1968.

• Richard Petty has the most victories with 13. AJ Allmendinger is tied for fewest with zero.

• Tim Richmond won the 1986 race at Richmond. (Note: I failed to mention last week that no driver named Talladega has ever won a race at that track.)

• Carl Edwards gets his crew chief Bob Osborne back this week after a six race suspension. Edwards was fast at Phoenix before a pit road problem. He was also fast at last fall’s Richmond race before he blew the engine.

Four to watch

• Kyle Busch He has five top fives in six Cup starts at Richmond. He had the dominant car in the fall 2006 race before Kevin Harvick pipped him with two laps left.

• Denny Hamlin: It could be a wheelbarrow race in Blacksburg, but as long as it featured Denny Hamlin in the state of Virginia, he’d be a threat to win.

• Kevin Harvick: Just like Hamlin takes to any race in the Old Dominion state Harvick thrives on the flat tracks. It could be a speedskating race in Vermont…you get the picture. Owns the best driver rating over the last six races at 121.2 and owns one win.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr Apparently Junior hasn’t won a Cup race in a while. He has won the last three spring races falling in even years. That stat means nothing in regards to Saturday night. His 3 wins, 7 top 5’s and 9 top 10’s does, though.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

A weekly glimpse at my picks from the Fantasy NASCAR game. If you haven’t signed up yet, a new segment is starting soon (like four races soon) which means you have a clean slate.

• Champ: Kurt Busch Busch won the 2005 fall race and also owns the fifth best driver rating (100.4) over the last six races.

• Chump: Clint Boywer So far this year Bowyer has been a compiler instead of a front runner. He can’t keep that up forever without experiencing some bad luck.

• Sleeper: Elliott Sadler No one really strikes me as a great choice among the sleepers this week. Sadler has the skill, experience, and just maybe the car (ran very well at Phoenix) to land in the top 15. Be sure and check out all of the Sleeper Analysis at One Bad Wheel

Who Will Win?

So far this season Kasey Kahne has been solid nearly every week. Richmond is the site of his first win and even in his worst years, he has run well at Richmond. It’s something about Richmond and drivers with open-wheel backgrounds like Kahne, Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman.

Note: You can also find this article and many others like it at One Bad Wheel

Since a lot of NASCAR fans play more than one type of Fantasy NASCAR game, it’s time to offer up a few hints toward Yahoo’s game. I’ve used many of these tips to whip my brothers. Since they don’t read anything I write, the secrets are safe from them but available to everyone else.

First a few notes on how the Yahoo game works. Drivers are assigned to one of three groups at the start of the season. The elite drivers reside in Group A, while the weakest drivers comprise Group C. Drivers don’t change groups during the season, although Group C tends to grow as the lesser teams hire new drivers during the season.

Each week you select two drivers from Groups A and C and four drivers from Group B. This is your team for the week, but you only start half of your drivers from each group. The starters are the only drivers that get points during the race for laps led and their final position.

Each driver is also limited to eight starts during the season. If you start a driver more than eight times, no points are awarded.

Pay attention to qualifying

While only drivers in your starting lineup get points for the race, the top five qualifiers get one to five points for starting up front. It doesn’t sound like a lot, but the trick is that you get credit for qualifying points whether you start a driver or not. They simply have to be part of that week’s team. For example, even if you knew Ryan Newman wasn’t very good at Phoenix or you somehow foresaw Newman’s engine bonking, you still could have put him on your team to take advantage of his pole-winning prowess.

Another thing to monitor is drivers that don’t have a guaranteed starting spot. Boris Said is a great play at a road course, but has to qualify on time when he enters races. Last year qualifying at Watkins Glen was rained out and Said didn’t make the field. If you add a driver to your team that’s a risk to qualify, be sure you have another driver assured of making the show on your roster that week.

The easiest way to know which drivers are guaranteed a starting spot is to check the owner points standings. Any car number inside the top 35 makes the race. Everyone else is at the mercy of their qualifying laps.

Team Rotation

You can only start each driver eight times during the season. It might be tempting to start Carl Edwards at every 1.5 mile track, but you’ll quickly burn through his starts. Rotation is especially crucial in Group B where you have to start two drivers each week and the pool of quality drivers is smaller than Group A.

This year Dale Earnhardt Jr and Kyle Busch fall in Group B. Obviously they are both good at a place like Talladega, but are you willing to risk a precious start from your aces at a place where a good finish is never a sure thing? Find other drivers capable of top tens and save Shrub and Junebug for places like Richmond or Michigan where results are less volatile

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It helps to look long term and circle specific races where certain drivers run well. Robby Gordon is an obvious choice at road courses. Kevin Harvick is a great play at Richmond, Chicago and Indianapolis, but not at some other 1.5 mile tracks. It will pay off at the end of the year when you have strong drivers left to play.

Find a Group C Gem

You’re not going to find any wins in this group. Instead find that one or two drivers that can finish in the top 10 at select tracks. The group is filled with emerging rookies and veterans entering the twilight. Drivers like Brian Vickers, Travis Kvapil, Scott Riggs and Paul Menard will alternate strong runs with flops. Choose your races wisely.

Update Your Team

It’s the cardinal rule in Fantasy sports. Make sure your team is updated by deadline. This is the easiest way to squander points. It has stung me many times over the years. Consider setting your team’s lineup early in the week when you check the results from the previous week. If something happens later in the week you can still make changes, but if you forget you still have a full squad for the coming week.