Trouble in Turn2

This weekend TNT brings back their Wide Open coverage for the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona. More racing and fewer commercials sounds pretty good. What is even better is a good race at a fun track under the lights and 100 miles shorter than the Daytona 500 in February. It all adds up to one of the best race packages of the season. The Pepsi Coke Zero 400 is almost always an exciting race. Sure there was the monsoon of ought five that pushed the finish past midnight on the west coast, but most races are filled with crashes, daring passes for the lead (the lead!), and heck even some pretty cool one-off paint schemes.

And there’s something else about the plate tracks to like too. It’s the little rivalries at restrictor plate races that add the extra juice. They are four races that have very little bearing on the rest of the season, but teams often take more pride in their plate programs. The current top dogs, Gibbs and Hendrick could offer a great battle this year. So far Toyota, and more specifically Gibbs Racing have dominated the restrictor plate tracks in 2008. One win, four top fives and 57% of all the laps led at Daytona and Talladega. That’s pretty dominant. And that is why I think Hendrick Motorsports will be up to the challenge. Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr have all won at Daytona and are all very good in the draft. Not all of the cars will be around at the end, but that’s just part of the excitement.

What Happened Last Year

Gibbs teammates Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin wrecked each other while running 1-2 early in the race. That led to some bickering in the garage. Meanwhile Jamie McMurray edged Kurt and Kyle Busch for his first win since 2002. It was the closest finish in Daytona history (.005 seconds).

Five Drivers Who Like Daytona

Dale Earnhardt Jr won the 2001 Pepsi 400 and the 2004 Daytona 500. He has 6 top 5’s and 10 top 10’s in 17 starts.

Tony Stewart has two summer wins and has led 531 laps in ten races. That includes 151 of 160 at the 2005 race. He has 6 top 5’s and 10 top 10’s in 19 starts. He also is the only driver with a driver rating above 100 for the last seven Daytona races (108.1)

Jeff Gordon has six wins, most among active drivers. Gordon has recently adopted a “wait and see” approach, which worked at both Talladega events last year and almost paid off again this spring.

Jimmie Johnson has often served as Gordon’s wing man on mad dashes to the front late in races. But Johnson is perfectly capable of winning races himself. He has the highest average running position (9.8) of all drivers over the last seven races, meaning he is always in the lead pack.

Matt Kenseth owns a 92.4 driver rating and has led laps in four of the last five races at Daytona. He has scored 4 top 5’s and 12 top 10’s in his career at restrictor plate tracks.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Ryan Newman His Daytona 500 win was not a fluke. Penske has provided strong cars for Daytona and Talladega and Newman and Kurt Busch work well together.

Chump: Carl Edwards Edwards is good in the draft, but has lost his patience at times and that can be costly.

Sleeper: Elliott Sadler When it comes to restrictor plate races, Sadler is excellent at avoiding wrecks, picking the right lane and being around at the end to pick up a nice finish.

Who will win?

Hendrick and Penske cars will surely be strong with a splash of RCR mixed in (watch out for Clint Bowyer). Matt Kenseth and Jamie McMurray are typically strong at Daytona, but Ford is mired in a mini-funk right now. All of these teams will be in the lead pack, but who will win the race? Joe Gibbs. Seriously, take your pick of driver. Denny Hamlin led 32 laps and may have had the best car at the Daytona 500 if not for a pit road accident. Kyle Busch led 86 laps and could, and did, go anywhere he wanted to on the track. Tony Stewart wasn’t as good during the day, but came alive at the end of the race when the sun went down, led 16 laps and finished 3rd. The same pattern held true at Talladega when Hamlin and Stewart seemed able to do whatever they wanted at the front of the pack and Kyle Busch overcame early problems to pop up late and win. Fans of variety, surprise and parity turn away now. Kyle Busch is going to win again. Just because the winner might not be a surprise, the race should be anything but dull.

Let’s start with a few questions for New Hampshire. Will this race be in Kentucky or Las Vegas next year? Will we see a tight contest with lots of battles for the lead? Will we see a rout like Clint Bowyer’s 6 second win last fall? I don’t have any idea what will happen with Bruton Smith’s personal game of track Monopoly. As far as the race goes, I will hope it’s as exciting as the Phoenix race this spring, but will be keeping a pillow on standby.

In fairness, Loudon is a fine track. It’s tight and flat like Phoenix but lacks some of the quirkiness. The leaders usually don’t check out, but it is very hard to pass. This of course often leads to frustration. Frustration leads to emotion manifested as aggression. Aggression leads to contact. Contact leads to more emotion which leads to helmet tossing. And helmet tossing always equals fun. As a bonus, this year’s race is 301 laps instead of the lame 300 laps like prior years.

What happened last year

Dave Blaney was a surprise pole winner, the first for Toyota, but faded after the first pit stop. Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Martin Truex Jr each took turns leading before Denny Hamlin grabbed the lead with a late two-tire stop and held on for his only 2007 win. Jeff Gordon made a late run, but ran out of time. Hamlin edged Gordon by 0.068 seconds, the closest Loudon finish ever.

Some dudes who like Loudon

• Tony Stewart owns the best driver rating (117.9) at Loudon. He has 2 wins, 10 top 5’s and 11 top 10’s in 18 career starts.

• Martin Truex Jr scored two top 5’s last year. He led 47 laps and also won the 2005 Busch race. He is good at the flat tracks and also tends to shine in the Northeast.

• Jeff Gordon has three wins, but none since 1998. He does have three straight top 3 finishes.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Kevin Harvick Flat tracks and the #29 car just fit well together. He won the 2006 fall race at Loudon and has led 264 laps in his Cup career.

Chump: Kasey Kahne The Chump is again a tough choice, with almost everyone in the top 12 capable of running in the top 5 or winning. Kahne only has one top 5 and Evernham has never been great at Loudon or Phoenix.

Sleeper: Aric Almirola It’s a big stretch, but Almirola will likely drive the same car that Mark Martin nearly won with at Phoenix and finished 3rd at Richmond. Almirola can obviously drive, but with such a sporadic schedule it’s a Fantasy risk.

Who Will Win

The way Tony Stewart has run this year, he is overdue. It would actually be a pretty good publicity stunt for Stewart to begin paying late fees to charity for being overdue on his victory celebration. He is always strong at Loudon and barring any tangles with Ryan Newman, is usually around at the end. I’m really tempted to take Dale Earnhardt Jr, who has done nearly everything at Loudon but win. It’s hard to call him a darkhorse, but watch out for Matt Kenseth. Like Earnhardt Jr, Kenseth has been successful at New Hampshire albeit sans victory.

This week’s race at Infineon raceway might be the perfect storm for NASCAR. With the influx of open wheel drivers plus the incumbents that can wheel a stock car, the season’s first road course has the potential to be one of the best races of the season. There are very few places at Sonoma to pass cars, so minimizing driving errors is enormous. A slip somewhere else on the track can throw a driver’s rhythm off for the next several turns. There is also a lot of contact at road courses, arguably more than recent Bristol races. Even better, the contact can often lead to emotions boiling over. Witness last year’s Watkins Glen quasi-fisticuffs between Kevin Harvick and Juan Pablo Montoya.

With a number of teams hiring road course aces to drive this weekend, fans will need a scorecard to keep track of all the changes. In lieu of a scorecard, here’s a quick primer.

Ron Fellows hops in the #01 car for Regan Smith. Is it me or does anyone else think of the Brian Fellows SNL skit with Tracy Morgan when you mention Ron Fellows?

Mark Martin takes a week off to kick it with his homies. That means Aric Almirola straps into the #8 car. Does Almirola count as a ringer?

Marcos “Kangaroo Meat” Ambrose gets his turn on the #21 Wood Brothers merry-go-round. Past incidents with both Robby Gordon and Boris Said mean NASCAR should grant him a provisional on the basis of entertainment.

Dario Franchitti, road course ace, will replace Dario Franchitti, oval newbie, in the #40 car.

Scott Pruett replaces the listless Reed Sorenson in the #41. Even in bad Chip Ganassi equipment, who thought Sorenson would be this bad?

Max Papis will drive the #66 Haas machine while Scott Riggs shifts to the #70. Big deal, both cars are outside the top 35, right? The #66 is on the edge of the top 35 while the #70 has no realistic chance of rejoining the safety bubble. Haas’ hope is to have Papis build a nice cushion so that Riggs can then return next week with a guaranteed spot. Considering the closest competition is Michael McDowell and Michael Waltrip, it’s a pretty smart move by Haas.

What Happened Last Year

Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson began the week with cars that failed inspection, eventually resulting in penalties, and had to start from the back. Robby Gordon was the dominant car before fuel mileage ultimately came to the fore. Juan Pablo Montoya enjoyed the best combination of pit strategy and strong car to win his first Cup win and Chip Ganassi’s first win since 2002. He also became the second driver since 1997 not named Stewart or Gordon to win at Sonoma.

3 drivers that like Sonoma

Tony Stewart It’s Go-Time for Smoke. He is one of the most accomplished road course drivers in Cup history with 6 wins, 8 top 5’s and 12 top 10’s in 18 races.

Jeff Gordon 5 wins, 9 top 5’s, 11 top 10’s and 5 poles in 15 starts. He’s also led 437 laps at Sonoma, the most of all active drivers.

Robby Gordon Won the 2003 race and has led 155 total laps at Sonoma. His finishes in recent years have been skewed by mechanical problems, but few are better at getting to the front on a road course.

1 driver that doesn’t like Sonoma

Matt Kenseth has never led a lap at Sonoma, never scored a top ten and has three finishes worse than 30th.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Juan Pablo Montoya Montoya is in the Sleeper category, but with a thin crop of “Champ” drivers it makes a lot of sense to choose a third Sleeper.

Chump: Jimmie Johnson Johnson only has one top five and two top tens in his Sonoma career. He’s capable of a top ten finish, but not someone to rely on.

Sleeper: Jamie McMurray With so many road racers in the mix, it’s easy to forget that the guys that race stock cars every week often have more success. McMurray is very solid on road courses.

Who Will Win

Juan Pablo Montoya is definitely capable of winning, but with the current state of Ganassi Racing they can’t seem to run well anywhere. I’m very curious to see AJ Allemendinger race. He failed to qualify for both road course races in 2007, but Red Bull Racing has improved a lot since then. Patrick Carpentier is another “fulltime ringer” that is ready to cut loose. There are plenty of other open wheel drivers and road course aces that would make good choices, but I’m going with someone who has driven the CoT every week: Kurt Busch. His season has been a mess so far, but Penske provides some of the best road course cars in the Cup series. Busch won both road course poles in 2006 and has 3 top 5’s at Sonoma.

I’m always a little confused about Michigan. The track is wide and features several grooves, so drivers can find a place where their cars work best. Because it’s wide, that also means the passing can be rather easy. So is it a fun race because drivers like it or a dull one because the passing is so easy there aren’t great battles for position?

One thing I know is that when it follows Pocono it feels like the race flies by. It’s kind of like working out at the gym next to a big, ripped guy. Your lack of size is amplified in that setting. Pocono is a race that feels like you could watch the Ten Commandments, run some errands and then paint your bedroom before the checkered flag flies, while Michigan feels like it’s over before you can finish your chips and salsa.With a tendency for long green flag runs, the race often boils down to the final pit stop or fuel mileage.

Track Fun Fact of the Week: According to wikipedia (and who would question something on the internet?), Michigan International Speedway also hosts the Michigan High School cross country championship, presumably in the infield. Imagine how discouraging it would be to be running along, feeling good about your pace and then you look over and see Greg Biffle turn a few hot laps at 190 mph.

What Happened Last Year

Carl Edwards continued Roush Racing’s utter dominance of Michigan. Martin Truex appeared to have a better car in the final segment but couldn’t quite pull in Edwards. The win was the first for Edwards in 52 races, and was especially pleasing to his motorcoach driver Tom “Yeti” Giacchi. He had made a deal with Edwards in 2006 that he wouldn’t shave until Edwards won a race.

Notes and Fantasy Tips

• Roush dominates here. Roush has won ten races and their current drivers are good (Carl Edwards 1 win, 4 top 5’s), better (Greg Biffle 2 wins, 4 top 5’s) and best (Matt Kenseth 1 win, 7 top 5’s). Ford and Dodge have split the two Michigan wins each of the past five seasons.

  Meanwhile a Chevrolet (or Pontiac for that matter) has not won at Michigan since 2001 when Jeff Gordon took the checkers. There isn’t a great reason why the bowtie hasn’t won, just a fluke thing that happens in sports sometimes.

• Sunday is Father’s Day. Jame McMurray and Crown Royal are running a special paint scheme to tribute McMurray’s dad along with a personalized message:

  

  So McMurray isn’t big on words, but the message is clear. Many parents sacrifice a lot for their kids and it’s exponentially true in an expensive, traveling sport like auto racing.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Matt Kenseth Kenseth is outstanding at Michigan (11 top 10’s in 17 starts and a 9.7 avg finish). He won the 2006 August race in dominant fashion. Kenseth got out of the gates slowly this year, but is catching up to his teammates.

Chumps: Jeff Burton Burton has avoided trouble and scored a lot of top tens this year. RCR’s intermediate program is a behind Roush, Gibbs, Hendrick, Evernham and even Penske. Burton will struggle this weekend.[Click for more Chumps notes]

Sleepers: Casey Mears Over the last six Michigan races, Mears has the 11th best driver rating (89.0) and 1 top 5 and two top 10’s. At some point he has to run well, right? Right? [Click for more Sleepers notes]

And the winner is…

The easy method would be to draw a Roush-Fenway-Varitek(the joke never gets old to me) driver’s name out of a hat. In that case Todd Kluever is your man. Apparently my Roush Roster is two years old. So Plan B shows that Jimmie Johnson is the man this weekend. I feel it’s also time to institute the “Dale Jr or Kyle Busch could win on any given Sunday” caveat. One is winless and the other has four wins, but both have run in the top five almost every week and led enough laps to prove that a victory from either would not register a surprise.

This week’s Cup race is at the uniquely shaped Poconnnghh. [wakes up]Sorry, Pocono Raceway. In my unofficial poll of Cup drivers I have interviewed, 100% have admitted that the Pocono race can get pretty long. The popular opinion is that Pocono races are at least 100 miles too long. While that may be true, and the actual racing could improve, calling a race at Pocono dull is not always true. Check out a few of the events in recent years:

• June 2004: Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick took turns spinning and hitting each other at the finish line. The spat prompted Harvick to sport a Matt Kenseth T-Shirt the following week at Michigan.
• June 2005: Carl Edwards, having never seen the track in person wins the race. He credits his win to playing a video game simulation.
• June 2006: Denny Hamlin spins, hits the concrete curb, suffers substantial damage while pulling a large patch of grass into the car, and still comes back to win in dominant fashion.
• July 2006: Tony Stewart “teaches” Clint Bowyer a lesson about give and take…by spinning him into Carl Edwards. The innocent victim Edwards responds by spinning Stewart on pit road. A furious Bowyer (utilizing his patented Dolph Lundgren glare) confronts Stewart after the race.

See? That’s why it’s important to watch the race. Monday morning you’ll need to know what to talk about.

What Happened Last Year

Denny Hamlin was on his way to dominating his third straight Pocono race, when rain shuffled everything. The result was Jeff Gordon using pit strategy to gain the lead and then narrowly edging Ryan Newman before the rain fell. It was Gordon’s 4th of six wins and emphasized how teams were willing to gamble on track position in hopes of precious Chase bonus points for wins.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers (on the track, not your couch)

Champs: Ryan Newman He nearly won last year, has the fourth best driver rating (101.9) and his career Pocono line reads 1 win, 5 top 5’s and 6 top 10’s in 12 starts. Penske knows how to set up a car here.

Chumps: Clint Bowyer I admit, this week has me a little stumped. Bowyer has 2 top 10’s in 4 starts, but only a 72.2 driver rating.

Sleepers: Michael McDowell This pick is Sleeper with a capital “S”, but here’s why. He won an ARCA race and finished 6th in the other last year at Pocono. His problem this year has been wrecks, which typically aren’t an epidemic at the long track. Why not?

Who Will Win?

Is Big Brown entered? If not, then you have to look at one organization. Joe Gibbs Racing knows how to get around Pocono. Denny Hamlin has 2 wins, 3 top 5’s and 4 top 10’s in four races. Tony Stewart has 1 win, 5 top 5’s and 13 top 10’s in 18 starts. Maybe JGR has a killer NASCAR simulation game. Whatever it is, Stewart is ready to finally ready to make a deposit in his 2008 win account.

I always used to refer to Dover’s track as Bristol on Steroids. Of course now that is probably cause for a congressional hearing and it would only drag Miles the Monster through the mud. Dover is an exciting track because it’s made of concrete, tough to pass and drivers can get frustrated. One of my favorite finishes of any race in recent years was the duel between Jeff Burton and Matt Kenseth. Burton was on fresh tires but Kenseth made it impossible to pass until the very end. Not only is Dover a track that’s enhanced beyond normal tracks, but so is the name of the race: Best Buy 400 Benefiting Student Clubs for Autism Speaks.

What Happened Last Year

Rain pushed the race to Monday morning and Martin Truex Jr led 216 laps to score his first career Cup win. Unforutnately for Truex, the win was overshadowed by two other events. Kurt Busch was parked after confronting Tony Stewart in the pits and nearly hitting a crew member. Did I mention he was still in his car?

The race also ended on a sad tone when it was announced that Bill France Jr had passed away.

Five Drivers who love Dover

Ryan Newman has 4 poles, 3 wins, 6 top 5’s and 8 top 10’s in 12 career starts. He was a top two car almost the entire race last spring, but unfortunately Martin Truex Jr was simply dominant.

Jimmie Johnson 3 wins, 4 top 5’s and 7 top 10’s in his career at Dover. Johnson almost ran down Truex in last spring’s race but suffered a flat tire in the final green flag run.

Matt Kenseth 1 win in 2006 and 5 top 5’s to boot. Kenseth has led 549 laps since 2004.

Kyle Busch For people that are tired of seeing Shrub run up front and threaten for wins, they might want to turn away. He owns the 5th best driver rating at Dover, 101.5. He has 4 top 5’s in six career starts and probably would have had a fifth top 5 if not for an engine failure at the fall 2006 race.

Greg Biffle won the 2005 spring race. In the last six Dover races he has the highest average driver rating (113.7) among all Cup drivers. He also has 3 top 5’s and 6 top 10’s in 11 career races. Biffle tends to excel at the tight, challenging tracks like Darlington and Dover.

One driver who doesn’t

It’s not that Tony Stewart doesn’t like Dover–he’s won two races– but lately he hasn’t had a lot of fun. In 2006 he had to drive with a broken shoulder blade before getting replaced by Ricky Rudd. Last spring he was headed for a top ten finish when he got together with Kurt Busch and both cars wrecked. That of course set off Busch who used his car to confront Stewart and his crew in the pits. In the last six races Stewart has a 67.7 driver rating, which is almost unheard of for a driver like Smoke.

Other Notes

• Hendrick Motorsports has won 10 races, more than any other team. The last HMS driver to win was Jimmie Johnson in 2005 when they used a tricked-out, although technically legal, shock package. And by technically legal, I mean that NASCAR outlawed the package immediately after the race.

• Mark Martin has led more laps (1799) at Dover than the total number of laps run of 16 drivers on the entry list. That shows two things. There are a lot of drivers with less than three Cup seasons of experience, and two, Mark Martin is awesome.

• The date sneaked up on us, but Sunday is Fox’s final broadcast for 2008. Aside from the Digger nonsense, it has been an outstanding run for the Fox crew. The ball gets passed to TNT for Pocono. Take that for what it’s worth.

• Joey Logano! Joey Logano! Mark Martin has been touting Logano as Cup ready since 2005. Even with Martin’s solid recommendation, the expectations and hype surrounding Logano are nothing short of outrageous (name another Busch East driver that has their own diecasts for sale). Logano’s much anticipated NASCAR Nationwide debut happens this Saturday, and for those that haven’t heard of him, he’s like NASCAR’s answer to LeBron James. Except that LeBron looked like he was a 29 year old linebacker when he entered the NBA at the age of 18. So far in his young driving career Logano has won in almost every series, but the Nationwide series is his biggest challenge yet. The trouble is I think some people will expect him to have immediate success and if he doesn’t, might label him a bust faster than you can say Casey Atwood. We all need to settle down, he hasn’t even made a Cup driver like Denny Hamlin mad yet.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Matt Kenseth If Kenseth is going to rebound this season, he’d better start now. His record at Dover is excellent in recent years.

Chump: Kevin Harvick: It’s doubtful that Harvick will finish in the 30’s, but it’s equally doubtful that he’ll finish in the top ten.

Sleeper: Mark Martin: His record speaks for itself (4 wins, 20 top 5’s, 27 top 10’s). Plus, wouldn’t it be funny to see Martin pose in Victory Lane with Miles the Monster?

Who Will Win?

Kyle Busch is really, really good at Dover. I thought about Greg Biffle or Matt Kenseth, but something is off with Roush lately. Biffle’s pit crew isn’t reliable enough at this point. Dale Earnhardt Jr has shown he can run in the top 5 and lead laps in any and every race, but he is hit or miss at Dover. Right now it’s Shrub’s world.

Nigel Tufnel: You see, most blokes, you know, will be playing at ten. You’re on ten here, all the way up, all the way up, all the way up, you’re on ten on your guitar. Where can you go from there? Where?
Marty DiBergi: I don’t know.
Nigel Tufnel: Nowhere. Exactly. What we do is, if we need that extra push over the cliff, you know what we do?
Marty DiBergi: Put it up to eleven.
Nigel Tufnel: Eleven. Exactly. One louder.

-“This is Spinal Tap”

I imagine that’s the way Humpy Wheeler might have described the Coca Cola 600 compared to other 500 mile events. He’s retiring after this weekend from his position as President and GM of Lowe’s Motor Speedway. Monte Dutton does a great job summarizing his impact.

Should we have been surprised by Kasey Kahne’s success at Lowe’s? So far this season Kahne has been solid but not quite a front runner and he supported that with a fifth place run in the All-Star undercard race. What we should have realized is that in his short career Kahne has been exceptional at Lowe’s. In 2004 he was one of the few cars capable of running down Jimmie Johnson in the Coke 600 before he brushed the wall on the final run, finishing 12th. Then in the fall race he was the dominant car, leading 207 of the first 267 laps, and in one of the coolest paint schemes in recent years. Unfortunately a cut tire sent him hard into the wall, spoiling a chance at his first career Cup win.

In 2005 Kahne led both races but again failed to garner good finishes. Then his big breakthrough came in 2006 when he swept both races in impressive fashion. He led 158 and 134 laps respectively in winning two of his six races that year. Last year was an unmitigated struggle for Kahne and Evernham but he still managed an eighth place finish in the fall race. It’s pretty clear that Kahne is very good at Charlotte regardless of how the rest of his season goes.

What Happened Last year

Jimmie Johnson was arguably the best car on the track. Jeff Gordon was involved in a wreck that sent him airborne. Tony Stewart was leading the race near the end when it became apparent that teams would not make it to the end on fuel. With most of the leaders pitting, Casey Mears stayed on track, had enough fuel to finish and claimed his first Cup win.

Other Notes

• Jimmie Johnson hasn’t won at Lowe’s in four races, but he’s still the top driver there. 5 wins plus two other wins in the exhibition All-Star race. His average finish is 6.8 and he has 8 top fives in 13 races. That’s pretty good, I guess.

• Racingone has a cool writeup on the history of the World/Coke 600. Especially interesting was the story of David Pearson’s win at Charlotte. He was working as a roofer when he got the call to subsitute for another driver. He went on to win the race.
  

  With a little over one lap to go, Pearson’s Pontiac blew a tire. He knew a pit stop would dash his hopes for a victory, so he pressed on. Pearson limped across the finish line in a shower of sparks for his first of 105 wins in NASCAR’s premier series.

• Has Bill Cosby ever been grand marshal of the Coke (and a smile) 600? He should be. What about Darryl Strawberry or Doc Gooden? They probably shouldn’t be.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

• Champs It makes a lot of sense to pick Kahne this week. Didn’t you read the previous notes?

• Chumps Kevin Harvick hasn’t scored a top ten at Lowe’s since 2003. He will obviously be running at the end because he never gets DNF’s, but where will he be running is the key? My guess is not on the lead lap.

• Sleepers Jamie McMurray has a win, 2 top 5’s and 5 top 10’s. He stands above the crowd in this group.

Who Will Win?

A lot can happen in 600 miles, almost anything can happen. That extra 100 miles can wreak havoc with the best laid plans. Which makes sense considering the team with the most success, the #48 team, is probably the best at adjusting on the fly. Johnson would be a good bet to run in the top five, but I’m going to take a slight risk and pick Greg Biffle for his first win of 2008.

Self Promotion

As the old adage says, be wary of Canadians promising things. It’s not a real proverb, but I was tricked by one this week. Bob at 4Ever3 conned me into answering my own questions about Blogging. So if you’ve made it this far in the post and still have have a fever for more cowbell info on me, head over to his site .You should probably make it a habit to check out his site regularly anyway.

Photo courtesy of NASCAR Media

Dale Jarrett’s Final Race

One of the classiest and most successful Cup drivers of the last 20 years will hang up the firesuit on Sunday (that is, until one of the three MWR cars falls hopelessly outside the top 35). Michael Waltrip Racing owes a great deal to Jarrett for where the company is today. It would be nice to believe Jarrett could have a storybook ending and challenge for the large cardboard check, but NASCAR racing rarely bows to Disney endings.

An Emerging Driver Will win the Open

The last three years the undercard race has been won by a driver on the verge of a breakout. IN 2005 Brian Vickers Mike Bliss on his way to his first win in a Cup car. He finally won a points race in 2006 (in eerily similar fashion). In 2006 Scott Riggs won the Open, which he followed up by winning the pole for the Coca-Cola 600 and also enjoyed his strongest Cup season. Last year Martin Truex Jr set up a hot summer streak by storming to an Open win. He went on to win at Dover, score top 3’s in four of six races and make the Chase.

Whether it’s a sibling rivalry or revisiting an old skirmish, the All-Star race is the perfect platform for getting something off your chest. In 2004 after Kurt Busch took out teammate Greg Biffle, plus about eight other cars when he gave bumpdrafting a try on a 1.5 mile track. In 2005 Tony Stewart was at the heart of a multi-car wreck, but Joe Nemechek used the opportunity to get into Kevin Harvick’s face while Stewart evaded criticism. Nemechek was apparently still upset at Harvick for inciting a large melee during the Gatorade Duels at Daytona that February (Note to competitors: Front Row Joe has a long memory, don’t cross him). 2006 Stewart was again involved in a wreck, this time with Matt Kenseth that had some residual tones from their tangle in the Daytona 500 from earlier in 2006. Last year Kurt and Kyle Busch collided, sparking a mild spat amongst the brothers. Said the elder Kurt Busch, “I’m not gonna be eating any Kellogg’s for a while.”

Dale Earnhardt Jr is far classier than most of his fans (at least the obnoxiously vocal ones), but if he wanted to settle any scores (hypothetical, of course), he could pick a worse race than an exhibition event. Like you weren’t thinking the same thing.

For what it’s worth, I have Greg Biffle as the winner and Ryan Newman and/or Juan Pablo Montoya involved in quasi-fisticuffs (I love it when I can use the quasi-fisticuffs tag).

In most years Darlington is one of the most baffling tracks to figure out. Teams and drivers struggle with a good setup and by the time they figure it out, their tires are already worn out. The simple reason is that Darlington was such a unique track. The way the surface ate up tires made it extremely challenging and there wasn’t really an apt comparison found on the Cup circuit. This year will feature a new racing surface for the first time in 13 years. The egg-shaped track is still unique and plenty challenging, but the race will be less about tire wear. The rapid tire wear usually separated the top drivers from the top engineers. Now that factor is probably eliminated from the equation. The good news is that the race still promises to be one of the best of the season.

What Happened Last Year

For the second straight week rain moved the race to Sunday afternoon. This caused several overheating issues for teams. Clint Bowyer won the pole, but it was quickly apparent that Denny Hamlin was the class of the field. He lead 179 laps but a bad pit stop cost him not only the lead but any track position edge he previously owned. That opened up the door for Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon to emerge. Gordon’s car began to steam and kick water out of the hood under cautions. After most of the leaders pitted on the final caution, Gordon stayed out in order to keep his engine from killing. The move paid off as he was able to hold off Johnson to win his seventh Darlington race.

Notes

• Johnny Mantz won the 1950 inaugural Southern 500 thanks to tire strategy. Most of the hares blew through their tires while Mantz played the tortoise and steadily made his way to the finish line. An incredible 75 cars took the green flag, while 25 others went home due to the top 75 owner’s points rule (note: Top 75 rule may not be true).

• Of all active drivers with Darlington wins, only Jeff Burton, Greg Biffle, Mark Martin and Sterling Marlin have not won a Cup championship. The other active winners are Jeff Gordon, Bill Elliott, Dale Jarrett, Jimmie Johnson and Bobby Labonte.

• Jeremy Mayfield has led the most laps(321) among active drivers without winning. Donnie Allison led an incredible 878 without finding Darlington’s victory lane, the most among all drivers.

• Anyone want to venture a guess on the number of times the announcers mention Darlington Stripe? I would say a number twice as many as the number of cars with actual stripes. Don’t get me wrong, I love the fact that the track is so challenging it’s almost impossible to avoid contact with the wall, but the incessant jabbering about said stripes gets a little annoying.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

• Champ Bet against Jeff Gordon at Darlington at your own peril. 7 wins, 15 top 5’s in 27 starts and three straight top 2 finishes.

• Chump It might be the only time all year where I feel comfortable choosing Tony Stewart as a chump. For whatever reason Stewart has not found success at Darlington.

• Sleeper It’s easy to pick Mark Martin every week in this category, but that’s not much of a sleeper, now is it? Matt Kenseth is hardly a sleeper either, but his 2008 struggles mean he sits 21st in the points. A nice run this Saturday would fix his Sleeper status.

My Fearless Winner Prediction

Due to some bad luck in past years Carl Edwards isn’t known for his prowess at Darlington, but he has a number of things going for him. His car control is excellent and Edwards and Roush-Fenway Racing have obviously jumped to an early advantage on speedways. He scored a top five in his first Darlington race back in 2004 and followed it up with a top ten in 2005. Rocks knocked his oil belt off and killed the motor in 2006, although he was running in the top five at the time. Then last year he led 33 laps before he was caught speeding on pit road. He battled back for a top ten, but again finished below where he deserved.

You did your Fantasy NASCAR homework during the week. You read articles, studied the stats, threw the darts (or if you prefer, illegal lawn darts) randomly at the dartboard and filled out your team. Now it’s the weekend and you still want to fine tune your lineup. Here’s a few more ideas for those last minute lineup decisions.

If a driver has to make the race on speed, it’s tougher to run well.

Teams that have to worry about qualifying well on Fridays puts them at a disadvantage for the entire weekend. Teams inside the top 35 can spend all of their practice times focusing on a fast race setup. Meanwhile “Go Fast or Go Homers” are spending that same time making mock qualifying runs and perfecting their qualifying setups. Cars also get through inspection in the order of their point position. Again, that means less time on the track for the lesser teams.

What Car is your driver bringing?

Racingone.com provides great information about the top drivers and which chassis they will drive in the upcoming race. For example, at this weekend’s Richmond race, Denny Hamlin will drive the same car that he won in at Martinsville. That’s a good sign. Greg Biffle is also bringing his Martinsville car. He finished 20th in that race.

Look at Practice Times With a Grain of Salt

As the esteemed Flava Flav used to say, “Don’t believe the hype!” Websites and announcers often tout the drivers that are fastest in practice sessions. All that means is they had the fastest lap of practice. All teams treat practices differently. Some are working on qualifying runs, while others are tuning their car for long, green flag runs in race trim. Sometimes teams feel confident in what they have and are simply focusing on one or two adjustments to the car. Dale Earnhardt Sr used to skip entire practice sessions when he felt comfortable with his weekend ride. When scanning practice times, it’s helpful to look at all the numbers for better context. Look at the average speed, and total number of laps run, rather than just their best single lap time.

Also keep in mind what time of day the sessions are held. This is especially key with three straight night races on the schedule. A practice session during the day will create different conditions compared to the cooler, gripper night temperatures. Weather can also change the track conditions, as we saw last year with both the Richmond and Darlington spring races delayed by rain.

Don’t Overthink Your Selections

NASCAR is loaded with variables, which is both a blessing and a curse. It makes for great, unpredictable races, but can also occasionally cause Fantasy players to throw up their arms in bewilderment. In the end if it is causing you stress over who to start, keep it simple. Don’t try and outsmart yourself by trying to account for everything. It will make your head spin and your team may still wind up in shambles.