Trouble in Turn2

The last seven seasons have seen the advent of a youth movement in NASCAR at the Cup level. Young Guns have taken over in large numbers and many have quickly found success. Since 2000 a rookie has won a race in every season except 2004. Going back to 2002 the recent rookie classes have been pretty impressive. 12 of 19 drivers have won races, nine have made a Chase appearance and one has won two championships. Not bad for a wave of drivers that some fans complained were ruining the sport (Toyota and open wheel drivers have since acquired that “honor”). So which rookie class featured the best rookies? It’s a tough decision. I decided to look at the various classes from 2002-2006. I didn’t rate the 2007 class because drivers deserve at least three seasons for a fair assessment. The only reason I included the 2006 class was because it included so many drivers with immediate success it was an exceptional case. Check out previous reviews: 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005.

Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer, Martin Truex Jr, Reed Sorenson, JJ Yeley, David Stremme, David Gilliland. Total wins: 6

The rookie class of 2006 was labeled as a special group and almost three years later that still holds true, but maybe not to the degree originally expected. The top three drivers of the class all made the 2007 Chase, won Cup races and appear set to compete at the top level for the next decade. The rest are still finding their way.

When Denny Hamlin was given a tryout in the #11 car at the end of 2005, it looked like nothing more than a placeholder while Joe Gibbs Racing could find another driver. Then Hamlin scored three top tens and won a pole in seven races. He smoothly slid into the #11 car on a fulltime basis for 2006 and immediately took off. While some drivers and analysts could see his talent, no one expected him to adjust to the Cup level so smoothly.

Right out of the gate, he won the Bud Shootout holding off teammate Tony Stewart and Dale Earnhardt Jr, both shrewd plate racers. At this time he hadn’t even won a Busch race prior to his promotion to Cup. He went on to win both Pocono races. On the strength of 4 top 5’s and 13 top 10’s he made the Chase field as a rookie. During the Chase he scored 4 more top 5’s to stay in contention until the latter stages of the Chase. His final numbers were impressive. He finished 3rd in the final standings, had 2 wins, 8 top 5’s, 20 top 10’s and easily won Rookie of the Year.

He followed up in 2007 with another win and a Chase berth. He spent the majority of the first 26 races in 2nd place in the standings and had numerous chances to win races. A disappointing Chase took some of the luster out of the season, but it was still an impressive sophomore season.

So far in 2008 Hamlin has won a race at Martinsville, scored 6 top 5’s and led more laps(696) through 21 races than all of 2005. A Chase spot appears sewn up and thanks to the fact that Joe Gibbs Racing builds the cars Hamlin drives he has a chance to win a Cup title in the coming years.

After winning back to back Busch championships in 2004 and 2005, Martin Truex Jr was more than ready for the Cup circuit. He was widely picked as the favorite for Rookie of the Year and quick success was assumed by almost everyone. So it was a little surprising when Truex struggled to an 19th place finish and failed to compete for wins. He had a few nice results scattered amongst a lot of crashes and poor finishes. His final numbers, 2 top 5’s and 5 top 10’s fell well short of expectations but by the end of the year he and rookie crew chief Kevin Manion were showing signs of figuring out the Cup game.

In 2007 Truex finally broke through. After he spent the first quarter of the season alternating between top 10 finishes and tough luck crashes, he finally caught a break and won the Nextel Open exhibition race. Two weeks later he cruised to his first Cup win at Dover. That win was one bookend of a hot summer that propelled him to a spot in the Chase. He finished with 1 win, 7 top 5’s and 14 top 10’s. While Truex hasn’t vaulted to stardom his DEI equipment also tends to be subpar. Truex is a solid all around driver and could be a big lure on the free agency market in 2009.

Clint Bowyer didn’t have the hype of Martin Truex Jr or Reed Sorenson or the overnight success of Denny Hamlin, but he did prove his toughness as a Cup rookie. Bowyer jumped out of the gates with a surprising 6th place finish in the Daytona 500. He hung inside the top 20 in points all season and registered a respectable 4 top 5’s and 11 top 10’s. He also hinted at his strength with strong runs at flat, short tracks like Phoenix and Loudon.

In 2007 Bowyer continued his ascent and locked down a spot in the Chase. He also won his first career Cup race at Loudon, in dominant fashion. Bowyer finisheda surprising third in the Chase standings and scored a total of 1 win, 5 top 5’s and 17 top 10’s. 2008 began well with a win at Richmond and is again in the hunt for a Chase spot. Another trait that has developed in Bowyer’s style is his ability to avoid DNF’s. Aside from 4 his rookie season, Bowyer has finished 100% of the races in the last two seasons. It helps offset his lack of laps at the front of the pack.

As a 19 year old Reed Sorenson was already running a full Busch Series schedule and winning 2 races. After a fourth place points finish, he was quickly promoted to the Cup Series to drive Chip Ganassi’s #41 car for the 2006 season. As expected for a 20 year old rookie, Sorenson’s season was filled with inconsistency. One week would see him crash early and finish in the 40’s and then follow it up with a top ten run. Despite only 1 top 5 and 5 top 10’s, it was clear that the young driver had talent.

Maybe the most surprising thing about Sorenson’s rookie season was that it was his best year to date. 2007 was expected to build on his rookie effort, but that improvement didn’t come. While his peripheral numbers (3 top 5’s, 6 top 10’s) were slightly better, his average finish, DNF’s and laps led were all worse. 2008 has been an even greater struggle. Through 22 races Sorenson sits in 30th place in the points and has mustered only two top 10’s and has ten sub-30 finishes. Despite the struggles, and they are not all Sorenson’s fault, he is still only 22 and talent doesn’t evaporate. Looking back on the class in 5-10 years may still portray a different story for Sorenson.

JJ Yeley had an impressive resume in sprint cars, winning the USAC triple crown. He moved to the Busch Series and then landed a Cup ride with Joe Gibbs Racing thanks in part to a personal recommendation from Tony Stewart. The general scouting report on Yeley was that he was talented but raw. He displayed some of his talent (1 top 5, 6 top 10’s, 1 pole) and a lot of the rawness (28 sub-30’s, 11 DNF’s) in his first two years with Gibbs. When Gibbs had the chance to sign Kyle Busch, Yeley was the obvious cut.

He was still considered a good prospect at the Cup level and signed with Hall of Fame Racing for 2008. Unfortunately Yeley could only manage 1 top 5 in 17 starts, lost his spot in the top 35 and failed to qualify for 4 races. That led to his firing from the #96 car after 22 races.

After several seasons of mild success in the Busch Series, David Stremme got his big break in 2006. Chip Ganassi promoted him to the #40 seat to replace Sterling Marlin. After five races Stremme was sitting on the outside of the top 35. This forced the team to switch to survival mode and simply qualify for races and essentially washed away Stremme’s season. He did manage to return to the top 35, but didn’t score a top ten and finished a disappointing 33rd in the final standings.

2007 brought a fresh start for Stremme and the #40 team. Stremme finished in the top 20 in five of the first six races and included his first Cup top ten. The summer wasn’t as kind and Stremme could only manage three top tens in total and suffered 14 sub 30 finishes. He was released after the season to make way for the incoming Dario Franchitti.

After a chain of events in August of 2006, the Robert Yates #38 car was suddenly vacant. Enter David Gilliland, who was a complete unknown only months earlier. After winning the Kentucky Busch race in an underfunded car Gilliland was suddenly a star in the making. While his truncated rookie season was a series of wrecks and backup cars, Gilliland did have a handful of promising runs. He won the pole at Talladega and finished 15th and then had two other nice runs at Atlanta and Phoenix.

He then won the pole for the Daytona 500 the following spring and scored his first top ten in the process. While Gilliland went on to show some improvement in 2007, it was sometimes hard to tell whether he was struggling as a driver or Yates no longer had the cars to keep up.

In 2008 Gilliland has displayed more progress. He has cut down on the wrecks and has scored ten top 20’s in 22 starts. While it’s doubtful he will become a superstar at the Cup level he looks set to be a solid driver capable of the occasional top 5 or win.

Verdict: Hamlin is already a star while Bowyer and Truex have the potential to challenge for wins and Chase berths. Sorenson’s potential is still there if he can put an ugly 2008 behind him. Yeley, Gilliland and Stremme will probably never be drivers that teams are built around but can certainly make a living shuttling between the Cup and Nationwide series.

The last seven seasons have seen the advent of a youth movement in NASCAR at the Cup level. Young Guns have taken over in large numbers and many have quickly found success. Since 2000 a rookie has won a race in every season except 2004. Going back to 2002 the recent rookie classes have been pretty impressive. 12 of 19 drivers have won races, nine have made a Chase appearance and one has won two championships. Not bad for a wave of drivers that some fans complained were ruining the sport (Toyota and open wheel drivers have since acquired that “honor”). So which rookie class featured the best rookies? It’s a tough decision. I decided to look at the various classes from 2002-2006. I didn’t rate the 2007 class because drivers deserve at least three seasons for a fair assessment. The only reason I included the 2006 class was because it included so many drivers with immediate success it was an exceptional case. This week focuses on the 2003 class. Check out previous reviews: 2002, 2003, 2004.

The 2005 rookie class only features two members, Kyle Busch and Travis Kvapil. Busch has been a hot prospect since he was a teenager and is now a bona fide superstar thanks to his big year in 2008. Meanwhile Kvapil has taken a more indirect path to the Cup series but looks to have finally established himself as a skilled Cup driver.

Kyle Busch made his NASCAR debut at 16 in the Truck Series in 2001. NASCAR created an age limit for their top three series and Busch was forced to wait until he turned 18 before he could compete again. If not for the rule he may have made his Cup debut prior to his 18th birthday. Upon his return it didn’t take long to stand out. He won 5 races in the Busch Series in 2004 and finished 2nd in the points.

In 2005 he moved to the #5 car at Hendrick Motorsports, replacing the retiring legend Terry Labonte. He won two races and became the youngest driver to win a Cup race at age 19. Despite typical rookie struggles, Busch scored 9 top 5’s, 13 top 10’s and finished 20th in the overall standings. He won Rookie of the Year in a class of two.

In 2006 and 2007 Busch didn’t ascend to stardom but did win two races and made the Chase playoff field in both seasons. He also had his share of controversy with other drivers due to his attitude and occasional bouts of immaturity. He left Hendrick Motorsports after 2007 to make way for Dale Earnhardt Jr and he landed a ride with Joe Gibbs Racing. Whether it was the move or simply Busch’s experience catching up with his talent, 2008 has been a banner year. Through July Busch has
seven wins and leads the point standings.

Travis Kvapil won the 2003 Truck Series title but didn’t land a Cup ride until 2005. Roger Penske hired him to drive their third car, the #77. In hindsight it was an exercise in futility. Kvapil did not have the same equipment as his teammates, Ryan Newman and Rusty Wallace, and he struggled all season. He managed only 2 top tens and teetered on the edge of the top 35 in points.

After the 2005 season the #77 team was contracted and Kvapil was left to scramble for another ride. The best he could manage was with Cal Wells’ fledging PPI Racing team. The team hadn’t been competitive since 2003 and Kvapil again had little chance of success. Kvapil didn’t finish better than 19th and struggled to simply make races. The team folded after the 2006 seson relegating Kvapil to the Truck Series again.

After a successful truck season Kvapil was hired by Yates Racing to drive the #28 car. Teamed with crew chief Todd Parrott, the duo has found speed in the car. Kvapil has three top tens through 20 races, proving he is a capable driver given quality equipment.

Verdict: Kyle Busch is one of the top stars in NASCAR and has an excellent chance at his first Cup title this year. Kvapil took a while to find a decent team but has displayed his skill. It’s difficult to rate the class very high in comparison to other deeper classes. In ten years Busch may wind up as one of the two or three best drivers to emerge since Tony Stewart was a rookie in 1999. that would probably reflect well on the class too.

The last seven seasons have seen the advent of a youth movement in NASCAR at the Cup level. Young Guns have taken over in large numbers and many have quickly found success. Since 2000 a rookie has won a race in every season except 2004. Going back to 2002 the recent rookie classes have been pretty impressive. 12 of 19 drivers have won races, nine have made a Chase appearance and one has won two championships. Not bad for a wave of drivers that some fans complained were ruining the sport (Toyota and open wheel drivers have since acquired that “honor”). So which rookie class featured the best rookies? It’s a tough decision. I decided to look at the various classes from 2002-2006. I didn’t rate the 2007 class because drivers deserve at least three seasons for a fair assessment. The only reason I included the 2006 class was because it included so many drivers with immediate success it was an exceptional case. This week focuses on the 2003 class. Check out previous reviews: 2002.

2003: Jamie McMurray, Casey Mears, Greg Biffle: 15 combined wins

The 2003 rookie class featured two young drivers for Chip Ganassi, Jamie McMurray and Casey Mears, and the older Greg Biffle who took longer to reach the Cup level but has actually enjoyed the most success.

Jamie McMurray got a headstart on the others in the class by subbing for an injured Sterling Marlin in 2002 and winning in only his second Cup start at Charlotte. Although he didn’t win in his official rookie season, McMurray was steady enough to earn the Rookie of the Year. With multiple Busch wins and a smooth transition to the Cup level, McMurray was proclaimed as a future star. The statement made sense at the time.

Then McMurray had an even better 2004, narrowly missing the Chase but finishing 11th in the final points. Despite not winning he had 9 top 5’s and 23 top 10’s and an average finish of 13.2. He followed that up with another narrow miss at the Chase and a 12th place finish in 2005.

As McMurray’s astonishing win in his second start got smaller in the rearview mirror, most people came to the conclusion that McMurray was good enough to win but lacked a strong enough team. Midway through 2005 he was announced by Roush Racing as the replacement for Mark Martin. After a prolonged contract battle, McMurray was released to drive for Roush in 2006. As things turned out he replaced Kurt Busch, meaning he inherited the 2004 Nextel Cup championship team and a car with 6 wins in the previous two seasons. It looked like the ideal setup for McMurray to give him every chance to win a lot of races.

Instead McMurray has struggled with Roush. In two and a half years he has 19 top tens, five fewer than his 2004 season. One of the few highlights was winning the Pepsi 400 in 2007. He has also gone through four crew chiefs in two plus years.

Casey Mears didn’t have a lot of stock car experience when Chip Ganassi hired him to drive the #41 Target car in 2003. His only prior experience was a full Busch season in 2002. The lack of experience showed as he struggled with consistency in his first two and half seasons. He would have a highlight like winning the pole for the Brickyard in 2004 and then follow it with a string of disappointing finish. As a rookie he suffered 10 DNF’s, mainly from crashes.

Eventually Mears began to acclimatize to stock cars. By 2006 this number was reduced to two. 2005 marked the first time he was a legitimate threat to win races. After strong runs at Texas and Homestead, it was slightly unjust that he didn’t win a race in 2005. He opened 2006 with a 2nd place run at the Daytona 500 and followed it up with two more top tens in the season’s first three events. Unfortunately he didn’t score another top ten until race 15. By then it was too late to realistically think about the Chase. After 2006 he landed a dream ride with Hendrick Motorsports alongside longtime friend Jimmie Johnson. The move did yield Mears’ first and only Cup win, but he again struggled with consistency.

Greg Biffle took more of a traditional path to the Cup level. He was discovered by Benny Parsons running in the lower, regional series and Jack Roush signed him. Biffle won a Truck Series championship in 2000, but didn’t land a Cup ride until he won a second NASCAR title in 2002, this time as Busch champion. He finally landed a full time Cup ride at age 32.

Like Mears, Biffle’s first two seasons were star-crossed. Biffle won the Pepsi 400 at Daytona as a rookie, but also struggled to keep the car off the wall. He won two more races in 2004 at Michigan and Homestead, but still found the wrecker too much.

Biffle’s big breakthrough came in 2005 when he won six races, including 5 of the first 14. He easily made the Chase and fell 32 points shy of winning the title and settled for a tie for second.

Biffle is renowned for his amazing car control, which is probably why he excels at tracks like Darlington (2 wins), Michigan (2 wins) and Homestead (3 wins). Although the wins and Chase appearances have not piled up like they did in 2005, Biffle remains one of the top drivers at the Cup level. He won two races in 2006 and one in 2007 while posting top 15 finishes. The dip in performance was partially due to some personnel changes at Roush. This year he has returned to top form. He already has more top 5’s (6) than his entire 2007 season and again sits in position to make the Chase.

Verdict: One good driver and two decent drivers with a combined 15 career wins. It’s interesting that both Mears and McMurray have taken similar career paths that both stand at a crossroads now. First McMurray and then Mears left Chip Ganassi’s team for powerhouse teams Roush-Fenway and Hendrick Motorsports respectively. Each won a Cup race last year, but it’s clear both were high points instead of breakthroughs. Both are now likely free agents for 2009 (McMurray’s plans are still unannounced) and will likely have to settle for lesser rides. As a rookie class, it’s not fantastic but did produce three solid Cup drivers. Biffle has made one Chase and won 12 races. Mears has one win, but has never finished better than 14th in the points. McMurray has two wins and has never finished in the top ten in points. The class produced solid Cup drivers and no washouts, so at least from the perspective it was good for contributing to NASCAR’s middle class.