Trouble in Turn2

Prior to the 2008 season I made a list of six things that would happen this season. After 15 races we can already begin drawing conclusions about some of the predictions. Some have been right on, some have been off and some are still unknown. Overall, I’m surprised how accurate they were (this is the same guy that said Kurt Busch would win at Sonoma).

• Jeff Gordon will barely make the Chase

  What I said,
  

  Gordon is strong at enough tracks to make the Chase, especially a field of 12, but if it’s more of a struggle than normal look no further than DNF’s and how he runs at intermediate tracks.

  Gordon ran very well in the first handful of races but didn’t get the deserved finishes. Since Atlanta, however, it’s been a mixed bag for the #24 team. Gordon has been strong at traditionally comfortable tracks like Martinsville and Darlington. At other intermediate tracks like Atlanta, Texas, Charlotte and Michigan the #24 has been a mess. Gordon is still nabbing enough strong finishes from strategy to ensure he’s in position to make the Chase, but he hasn’t won a race and isn’t really close to winning one. His current position in the standings masks some of the problems with the #24 and at this point it’s clear they are a long ways from challenging for a championship.

• Regan Smith will win Rookie of the Year

  What I said
  

  He does a good job of keeping the car on the track. DEI also provides the top equipment among the companies fielding rookies in 2008. The other rookie candidates will all take more time to adjust to stock cars, not to mention racing at the Cup level. 2008 will also mark only the second season since 2000 that a rookie doesn’t win a race.

  Smith is certainly not lighting the Cup scene on fire, but despite a rough start he is finishing races. He has five finishes of 21st or better. The Rookie of the Year criteria is based on the best 17 races for each driver, so the race is far from over. Sam Hornish Jr is his closest competitor and is showing great progress in his stock car transition.

• Sonoma and Watkins Glen will be the most exciting, and competitive races of the year.

  What I said
  

  With the infusion of open wheel drivers, the starting field could feature a dream lineup of top road course drivers and top stock car drivers. You have a lot of drivers that could light up the serpentine courses (and their tires). The heavier CoT can also accommodate more bumping without the cars losing control. That means beating, banging, flipping (birds, not cars), shouting, shoving, and for fans excitement.

  There was beating and banging and some weren’t happy, but sadly the leader was able to get away easily (granted the leader stayed on track). Watkins Glen still offers hope for some serious fireworks.

• Toyota will win 6 races.

  What I said
  

  At first glance that number sounds like a lot, but think about it. Gibbs alone could approach the 6 win total. Further down, Brian Vickers and Dave Blaney both had several good wins in 2007 despite the weak Camry engine. It’s not crazy to think either driver could find victory lane.

  Check this one off the list. After 15 races, it’s pretty clear that this prediction was a little tame. The addition of Gibbs transformed Toyota’s engine package into one of the strongest in the sport. As for Vickers, he has three top fives and four top tens. He is coming very close to finding Victory Lane.

• Kyle Busch will be Gibbs’ most successful driver.

  What I said
  

  Busch’s move to Gibbs doesn’t change that the fact that he will win a Cup championship. It probably won’t happen this year, but he is excellent at nearly every type of track. His 97.8 driver rating was 5th best and in his fourth Cup season, he is hitting his stride. This isn’t a knock on Tony Stewart, who should have a great year, it’s just a statement of how good Kyle Busch will be in 2008.

  Tony Stewart is still poised for a big summer, but it’s clear that the #18 car is fully operational. Busch has already won 5 races (more than his career total entering 2008), leads the points race and looks capable of winning almost every week, including a championship this year. He has also won 4 Nationwide and 2 Truck races and pulled two triple-headers this year. Busch is still a lightning rod for controversy but it’s hard to ignore the results.

• A team will alter their full schedule plans

  What I said
  

  Now the most likely teams look like BAM, Furniture Row, and Front Row motorsports. They are each already on shoestring budgets, but the bigger teams are not immune either. Haas-CNC, Yates and BDR all face sponsorship hurdles and that might result in skipping a few races during the season.

  Bill Davis Racing shut down the #27 car earlier this season. While most other cars appear safe for the season, several still remain unsponsored. NASCAR is feeling the effects of the recession, and it’s hard to see teams willing to keep paying the bills out of their own pockets for too long.

I’m always a little confused about Michigan. The track is wide and features several grooves, so drivers can find a place where their cars work best. Because it’s wide, that also means the passing can be rather easy. So is it a fun race because drivers like it or a dull one because the passing is so easy there aren’t great battles for position?

One thing I know is that when it follows Pocono it feels like the race flies by. It’s kind of like working out at the gym next to a big, ripped guy. Your lack of size is amplified in that setting. Pocono is a race that feels like you could watch the Ten Commandments, run some errands and then paint your bedroom before the checkered flag flies, while Michigan feels like it’s over before you can finish your chips and salsa.With a tendency for long green flag runs, the race often boils down to the final pit stop or fuel mileage.

Track Fun Fact of the Week: According to wikipedia (and who would question something on the internet?), Michigan International Speedway also hosts the Michigan High School cross country championship, presumably in the infield. Imagine how discouraging it would be to be running along, feeling good about your pace and then you look over and see Greg Biffle turn a few hot laps at 190 mph.

What Happened Last Year

Carl Edwards continued Roush Racing’s utter dominance of Michigan. Martin Truex appeared to have a better car in the final segment but couldn’t quite pull in Edwards. The win was the first for Edwards in 52 races, and was especially pleasing to his motorcoach driver Tom “Yeti” Giacchi. He had made a deal with Edwards in 2006 that he wouldn’t shave until Edwards won a race.

Notes and Fantasy Tips

• Roush dominates here. Roush has won ten races and their current drivers are good (Carl Edwards 1 win, 4 top 5’s), better (Greg Biffle 2 wins, 4 top 5’s) and best (Matt Kenseth 1 win, 7 top 5’s). Ford and Dodge have split the two Michigan wins each of the past five seasons.

  Meanwhile a Chevrolet (or Pontiac for that matter) has not won at Michigan since 2001 when Jeff Gordon took the checkers. There isn’t a great reason why the bowtie hasn’t won, just a fluke thing that happens in sports sometimes.

• Sunday is Father’s Day. Jame McMurray and Crown Royal are running a special paint scheme to tribute McMurray’s dad along with a personalized message:

  

  So McMurray isn’t big on words, but the message is clear. Many parents sacrifice a lot for their kids and it’s exponentially true in an expensive, traveling sport like auto racing.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Matt Kenseth Kenseth is outstanding at Michigan (11 top 10’s in 17 starts and a 9.7 avg finish). He won the 2006 August race in dominant fashion. Kenseth got out of the gates slowly this year, but is catching up to his teammates.

Chumps: Jeff Burton Burton has avoided trouble and scored a lot of top tens this year. RCR’s intermediate program is a behind Roush, Gibbs, Hendrick, Evernham and even Penske. Burton will struggle this weekend.[Click for more Chumps notes]

Sleepers: Casey Mears Over the last six Michigan races, Mears has the 11th best driver rating (89.0) and 1 top 5 and two top 10’s. At some point he has to run well, right? Right? [Click for more Sleepers notes]

And the winner is…

The easy method would be to draw a Roush-Fenway-Varitek(the joke never gets old to me) driver’s name out of a hat. In that case Todd Kluever is your man. Apparently my Roush Roster is two years old. So Plan B shows that Jimmie Johnson is the man this weekend. I feel it’s also time to institute the “Dale Jr or Kyle Busch could win on any given Sunday” caveat. One is winless and the other has four wins, but both have run in the top five almost every week and led enough laps to prove that a victory from either would not register a surprise.

1. Mark Martin signs a 5 year deal with Team Red Bull to drive their third #85 car. Included in the deal is a detailed plan for his 2013 Salute to You Retirement Tour.

2. Sam Hornish Jr scores 3 top 5’s and 12 top 10’s and makes the Chase. Meanwhile Kurt Busch wrecks in the first five races, costing him a spot in the top 35. His season never recovers.

3. Dario Franchitti spins out teammate Juan Pablo Montoya on his way to victory at Sonoma. Meanwhile Scott Pruett laughs to himself as he sticks another pin in his Montoya voodoo doll.

4. Odds on Tony Stewart and Kyle Busch get in at least one verbal sparring match: 7-1
   Odds on Tony Stewart and Kyle Busch get in at least one physical sparring match: 200-1

5. Elliott Sadler sports cornrows at Daytona. When asked about it, he explains that the key to winning a restrictor plate race is to reduce hair drag. That’s air drag, Elliott.

6. The runaway success of the Car of Tomorrow spawns popular T-Shirts “Boxy is Foxy” and “Slow is Sexy”

7. In an effort to replicate Jimmie Johnson’s mojo, Jeff Gordon intentionally jumps off a moving golf cart and injures his shoulder.

8. Stewart Stubble replaces the Clean shaven Gillete Young Guns as the new fashion trend in NASCAR.

9. Bolstered by new associate sponsor No-Doze, Michael Waltrip qualifies for the first five races and breaks into the top 35 in points.

10. Kasey Kahne eclipses Dale Earnhardt Jr in turn 4 at Talledega to win the Aaron’s 499. Seeing the Bud car doing burnouts confuses Junior fans. Should they throw Amp cans at the Bud car or Bud cans at the Hendrick car? With no solution found, the result is the tamest Talladega post-race crowd in years.

Casey Mears finally broke through with a win this spring at Charlotte in the Coca Cola 600. Before the year I questioned whether Mears would be able to make a smooth transition from Ganassi to Hendrick.

Entering next year[2007] with a new team poses an interesting question. Was it equipment that was holding back Mears or is he simply a mediocre driver? 2007 should help answer that question.

It probably wasn’t great motivation for him, but Mears has proven to me that he is a good driver. After a rough start to the season filled with crashes of all types, Mears is hitting his stride. He has four straight top ten finishes bringing his season total to 10. He also has 5 top five finishes, one less than his career total entering 2007. Mears’ success extends well beyond the past four races too. Since a 5th place at Chicago, he has finished in the top 15 in 9 of the last 12 races. His 1/5/10 line (wins/top 5’s/top 10’s) is already a career best and he still has six races to improve it. Charlotte is a good place to do that for Mears and the #25 car. Mears has three career top tens at Lowe’s. Further, his three best tracks statistically are all 1.5 mile tracks.

Other Thoughts

• It’s Return of the Rooster this weekend. Ricky Rudd will return to the #88 after recovering from a seperated shoulder suffered at California. Rudd is the active driver with the most top tens at Charlotte with 27, including his 7th place effort this spring. Despite 27 top tens and 9 top fives, Rudd has never won at Charlotte.

• The latest noise from Lowe’s Motor Speedway revolves around a drag strip. Track owner Bruton Smith wants to build it and the city of Concord, acting on behalf of the track’s neighbors, doesn’t. I don’t live next to the track so I don’t care either way, but it seems a little silly. The complex currently has a 1.5 mile oval, 2.25 mile road course,a 6/10 mile kart track, a 1/4 mile asphalt oval in the infield, a 1/5 mile oval outside of turn 3, and 4/10 mile clay oval across the highway from the main track. In other words it’s a major complex filled with races. It’s not like an additional drag racing strip would ruin the quiet sanctuary that makes up the neighborhood. Further, the track was built in 1960. The neighbors have had nearly 50 years to either adjust to the noise of motorsports or sell their property. It seems a little silly to get upset at this point.

• Jimmie Johnson and Lowe’s Motorspeedway blah blah blah. What more is there to say? 11 top tens in 12 races.

• Speaking of Johnson (if blah blah blah counts as speaking) he is entered in Friday’s Busch race. Last year’s Busch race was one of the best and wildest of the year. Carl Edwards dominated before getting tagged by Casey Mears while they raced for the lead. Crashes filled the night as only five cars finished on the lead lap and 15 DNF’s due to wrecks. Dave Blaney raced Matt Kenseth hard, but cleanly to the finish, Blaney narrowly passing while Kenseth spun out on the final turn. It marked Blaney’s first in NASCAR. It was also significant because it was the only Busch race that Kevin Harvick didn’t finish on the lead lap, although he did clinch the Busch Championship with four races left.

• In 14 starts Robby Gordon has never led a lap at Charlotte, has zero top tens and averages a 27.6 finish. After a solid start to the season, Gordon has slid back to 27th in the standings. After making strides last season, Gordon’s team has plateaued a bit this year. Obviously missing the Pocono race didn’t help, but with Roush-Yates engines I expected Gordon to take another step forward for his one car outfit.

• According to my wife Kyle Busch will win Saturday night’s race. Sounds smarter than anything I have to say (If I were to say something I would mention that I think Carl Edwards looks like a decent choice) so I’m going with Shrub. Busch can certainly win anywhere and his lack of good finishes at Lowe’s does not reflect his potential on intermediate tracks.

Who’s your pick for Saturday night?

Just like the spring version, Jeff Gordon won the race at Talladega featuring a wild finish to cap a lot of single file racing. The bigger story was the engine failure epidemic by the DEI/RCR cars. Four of the seven cars entered finished with DNF’s thanks to engine failures. Kevin Harvick finished the race but his car was down to seven cylinders. Jeff Burton, Martin Truex Jr, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Aric Almirola all saw their runs literally go up in smoke.

So what happened? Reading the post-race quotes from the drivers, crew chiefs and technical directors, it paints an interesting picture. DEI/RCR ran the new R07 instead of the SB2, the 2006 version. Harvick’s crew chief Todd Berrier:

ON IF THERE WAS ANYTHING TO HMS/JGR USING SB2 ENGINES WHERE RCR/DEI USED R07 ENGINES: Not really. I talked to Richard about that and he said no time better than the present to find out it was going to go. We had to run them next year, so, again, hindsight now looking back at it after having failures, you can go back and say we probably should have played something different.

With respect to Berrier, that doesn’t make sense. RCR has three teams competing in the Chase and DEI has one, not to mention the highest profile driver in the sport trying to win his first race in over a year. There is a lot more at stake in the short term than figuring out the engine package for 2008. If there was any indication that the R07 was less reliable, then RCR/DEI made a big mistake. It also says something that the two top Chevy teams, Gibbs and Hendrick, opted for the older engine.

Other Notes

• At the spring Talladega race Toyota could only place three of seven cars in the field, with a best starting spot of 14th. Not only did Michael Waltrip win the pole, but Toyota took 5 of the top 6 spots and had 6 of 8 cars qualify. It took some time but the Camrys are gaining ground on the other manufacturers in a big way. Dave Blaney has three top tens this year and all have come on tracks with an emphasis on horsepower (Indianapolis, Michigan, Talladega). The equipment is much improved. Next year the drivers will improve with the addition of Gibbs’ roster. Teams had better watch out because it won’t take long before Toyota is competing for wins.

• Speaking of Waltrip and MWR, a pole win is a nice way to start rebuilding equity with fans and sponsors after his tumultuous season. All thre Waltrip cars have now made the last three races while David Reutimann has made 7 of the last 8. Compared to where the team was in the spring, things are solidifying for the virgin team. The cars and finishes have both improved from being field-fillers to the point where top 15’s and top 20’s are commonplace.

  Improved cars also sets things up nicely for Dale Jarrett. Jarrett is expected to run the first 6 races in 2008 and then ride into the sunset (or hopefully the TV booth). With better cars, Jarrett should have the chance to prove that 2007 was not a true reflection of his driving skill. He definitley deserves that chance.

• The Chase is 40% done and things are sorting themselves out. While Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson continue to take turns leading the Chase, drivers further back continue to slide further away. Kevin Harvick sits in fifth but is already 202 points astray. To catch the top 2, Harvick would need to gain an average of 33 points for the next 6 races. Tony Stewart sits in 4th, 154 points back. It’s nearly a full race to first place, but keep one driver in mind: Jimmie Johnson. After 4 Chase races in 2004 Johnson was buried. He sat in 9th place 247 points behind Kurt Busch. He narrowly lost the title by 5 points. Johnson was 156 behind Jeff Burton at this point last year. He was in 8th place. Of course Johnson erased both deficits by running off 4 wins in 2004 and scored 5 straight top 2 finishes in 2006. It’s not impossible for Stewart, but he needs some top 5’s in a hurry.

• My personal predictions once again were about as accurate as a week old AP college football poll. I said Kurt Busch would lead a lot of laps and slip up at the end. He led zero laps and finished a solid 7th. I said Matt Kenseth would surge at the end and take the win. Kenseth got a flat tire in the first 25 laps and never factored. I also predicted that some kind of feud would boil over and produce good soundbites. I’m still searching for that footage. Out on three pitches.

Wild card, unpredictable, crapshoot or crazy. These are the adjectives used for the fall races at Talladega. The nature of restrictor plate racing definitely increases the chances of wrecks, but is it really such a wild card during the Chase? Consider a few facts. In the last three years the points leader has not changed after the Talladega race. Only 5 Chase drivers have finished 36th or worse in the three fall Talladega races. In 2005 Chasers took 4 of the top 5 spots and 5 of the top 10. In 2006 four Chasers finished in the top 10, and if not for a late Brian Vickers dust up, that number would have climbed to 6 of 10. Maybe it’s not such a crapshoot after all.

It’s a pretty simple reason too. The Chase features the teams with the top cars and drivers. Whether it’s a short track, speedway or restrictor plate car, the top teams usually find a way to run up front. Running up front usually avoids trouble (of course that still didn’t work for Junior and Johnson in 2006) at Talladega. It’s also true that the best drivers also increase their chances of avoiding wrecks. It sounds simple but it’s true. Even at a track like Talladega, avoiding wrecks is a skill. A good driver can read the draft, see a wreck developing and react quicker than lesser drivers. That can not be dismissed.

This year’s race is different for a few reasons. It’s the first time a CoT hits a track longer than 1.3 miles and it’s unknown how well it will work in a large pack. There is also the fact that the racing surface is still relatively new, getting repaved last summer. That combination means that Goodyear could pick a harder tire which could really make for a dull race. As we saw at Daytona in February, a hard tire package left a lot of time for single file, strung out racing. Sure the dramatic finish is what most remember, but the first 180 laps were rather tame. I fear the same scenario could play out on Sunday, where a few cars hit the setup and lead a lot of laps. The finish could very well be wild, but I don’t see a ball of 35 cars tightly packed running around all day.

• 13 active drivers have won a race at Talladega. Dale Earnhardt Jr and Jeff Gordon lead the way with 5 wins each. It’s notable that of the 13 active winners, 6 of them (Terry Labonte, Bill Elliott, Sterling Marlin, Mark Martin, Ken Schrader and James Hylton) are partially retired. I’m not sure how that pertains to Sunday’s race, but anytime you can work James Hylton’s name into a list with Terry Labonte, Bill Elliott and Mark Martin it’s fun.

• David Gilliland won last fall’s pole and essentially tied Gordon for the pole this spring but settled for the front row. Amazingly he is still looking for his first lap led at Talladega. At non-restrictor plate tracks, Gilliland has zero top tens and only 4 top 20 finishes all season. At plate tracks he has finished 8th, 4th, and 11th. The Yates horsepower will again be on display, but how well that translates to the CoT is the big question for Gilliland.

  Meanwhile his teammate this week will be Mike Wallace, who replaces his brother Kenny. Mike Wallace scored an unexpected 5th place finish at Daytona this spring and has 7 career top 10’s at restrictor plate tracks. He is capable and should have better equipment than Phoenix Racing typically affords him.

• There are 51 drivers on the Cup entry list. That is a lot of cars, but imagine starting a race with 60 cars. That’s how many were entered in a 1973 race at Talladega. Not only were they all entered, but they all raced. Granted it wasn’t a restrictor plate race back then, but imagine the sound of 60 cars taking the green flag. David Pearson won the race, lapping the field.

• Dave Blaney has the most starts (13) without a top ten. Greg Biffle is second with 9 starts with no top tens. Biffle has three straight DNF’s at Talladega, but he does have a restrictor plate win, thanks to his 2003 Pepsi 400 triumph.

• Looking for a sleeper at Talladega? How about Casey Mears. He doesn’t have the results to show, but his driver rating in the spring Talladega race was a healthy 90.6 before teammate Jimmie Johnson punted him. He also led 11 laps and held a late lead at the Pepsi 400 before getting shuffled back to 19th.

• Bold prediction of the week: A driver will complain a) about getting taken out by a teammate or b)not getting drafting help from a teammate, and then declare they are no longer really teammates. I told you it was bold.

• Meek prediction of the week: Matt Kenseth will win the race. I haven’t done very well with my predictions all year and I really don’t know how this race will play out. My suspicion is that the tires plus poor handling, poor drafting CoT’s will mean someone will run up front a lot. Kurt Busch has led a ton of laps in several races and could do so again, but in the end the pack will bunch up allowing for several contenders. Kenseth is very good in the draft and has already pushed Kevin Harvick and Jamie McMurray to plate wins in 2007. Now it’s his turn.

Who’s your pick for Sunday?

There are very few times on my blog when NASCAR takes a backseat. The opening day of March Madness is one of the times. There are so many great memories and characters that surface during the tournament, especially the first weekend. The upsets, individual performances, and buzzer beaters. Too many to name in fact. Here’s my breakdown of this year’s tourney. This breakdown is probably worth less than the price of this blog, but I still find pleasure in it. For full disclosure, my Final Four picks from last year were UConn, Kansas (1^st round loss), Gonzaga and Villanova. That’s right 0-4. Read on at your own risk.

Final Four Teams:
Kansas-The Jayhawks have a lot of talent and play an uptempo game that can wear thinner teams down. Julian Wright is the underrated glue man that could have a great tourney. Aside from a potential game with UCLA, their path is rather unobstructed. My pick to cut down the nets.

Maryland-A team loaded with seniors led by guards DJ Strawberry and Mike Jones. They also have enough inside size to deal with Florida in the Sweet 16. Center James Gist is the key to a deep run.

North Carolina-Traditionally freshman guards do not do well in the tourney. That’s overstated a bit, especially when the guards are as talented as Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington. They are deep, big and will wear teams down.

Tennesee-Looking at the South bracket, there wasn’t a team I was in love with and have a feeling this is where the upsets will come (see below). Tennesee has an experienced scorer in Chris Lofton and this bracket could open up for the Vols. Plus there’s something strangely mystical about Bruce Pearl and his sweaty orange blazers.

Who will be this year’s George Mason?
Nobody. That was such a unbelievable run that it might never happen again. As usual, there are plenty of Cinderella candidates to pull an upset or two. Watch out for Oral Roberts, Winthrop, or Old Dominion.

Biggest upset:
Xavier over Ohio State. Buckeyes coach Thad Matta recruited many of the Musketeers and several players were on the 2004 team that made the Elite Eight. The Buckeyes have ridiculous talent, but they are young and the Big Ten is not as good it seems.

Overrated:
Wisconsin-Center Brian Butch is out for the year. Without him the Badgers lack the inside scorer to take the heat off Alondo Tucker.

Memphis-Yes, they’re 30-3. No, they haven’t played anyone. Nevada or Creighton could easily beat them in the second round.

Underrated:
Georgia Tech-The 10 seed is very young, but very good. They could easily make some noise and scare some teams.

Enjoy the games!