Trouble in Turn2

After three straight races in three different time zones, all the NASCAR drivers were looking forward to the off-week before heading back to work. Like every other person with free time, they look forward to their vacation filled with relaxtion and entertainment. Earlier in the off-week several NASCAR drivers decided to relax and enjoy a night out together. So Dave Blaney, Patrick Carpentier, JJ Yeley, Kyle Petty, Johnny Sauter, Mike Skinner, Bill Elliott, John Andretti, Joe Nemecheck and Dario Franchitti decided to head to a trendy Charlotte nighttime hangout, Club 3-5.

As the group approached the front door, they were suddenly stopped by the bouncer,“Sorry, I can’t let you guys in”.

“What? It’s only 9:00 and it’s a big club, it looks like there’s plenty of room for all of us,” said an irritated Nemechek.

“Yeah, there’s room but we have to save spots for people with better dance skills.”

“Better dance skills? Like who?” asked an incredulous Andretti, “Who’s cooler than us?”
Dale Earnhardt Jr and Kasey Kahne nudged their way through the group and moonwalked their ways inside the door.
“Ok, fine,” responded Andretti, “They’re pretty cool, but who else?”
Just then, Regan Smith and Sam Hornish Jr walked up to the velvet rope and nudged their way past the group of drivers. “Hey Mike, can we get in?”

“Of course guys,” said the bouncer as he opened the rope and motioned them towards the door. Then turning back to the other drivers shrugged and said, “That’s the rules. Those guys have been better dancers this year than any of you. Plus have you ever seen Hornish pop and lock?”

“We just want to get into the club, we don’t expect to dominate the dance floor. That’s only fair,” pleaded Petty.

All right, some of you can still get in, but you’ll have to prove it with your dance moves. I’ll let eight of you in, but the others have to go hang out at the Olive Garden.”

Bill Elliott was the first one to try. He began with a slow, uncoordinated rendition of the Charleston, but then Mike the Bouncer interrupted. “Hey, didn’t you win a dance contest a few years ago? Yeah, you did. 1986 right? Go ahead, you can go in.”

Next up was JJ Yeley. His acrobatic routine began impressively but then as he was squaring up for a flip, he slumped to the ground. “I think I broke my leg!”

“That’s a shame there JJ, but I’m sorry we can’t let you in.”

As Yeley was writhing in pain on the ground, another driver, Michael McDowell limped up to the door on crutches. With a simple nod to Mike the Bouncer, McDowell slipped inside as the door closed behind him. A befuddled Yeley just sat there.

Next up were Franchitti, Carpentier, Skinner and Andretti doing some ballroom dancing. The performance, although awkward without female dance partners, impressed Mike the Bouncer enough. “I’ll let you guys in, but let me see the other dances first. Just stand here for a minute.”

Just then Boris Said walked by and saw all the dancing. “That looks pretty fun, I think I’ll give it a shot too.”
Petty realized there were only three spots left so he went for it. He pulled out the Robot routine he’d learned from his dad back in the 70’s. “Kyle, I’m sorry but it was just too slow. It may have worked in another era, but I can’t let you in.”

So Said proceeded to do a flawless breakdance routine capped with a headspin. “That was amazing! That’s one of the best dances I’ve seen tonight. You’re in for sure!” Just then a lightning bolt lit up the sky followed by a sudden downpour.

“It’s raining! I didn’t even have a chance to go,” cried Blaney as the makeup for his Thriller routine ran down his face.

“You’re right Blaney, we need a way to settle this.” The bouncer paused for a second, “Okay, Elliott, Blaney, Franchitti, Nemechek, Yeley-but you’ll need to switch to your backup routine when you get inside, Sauter, Carpentier and Skinner. You guys can go inside, the rest of you can check out a never-ending pasta bowl.”

“What? You said I was awesome! Now I have even get in because it’s raining?”

“Sorry Boris. The rest of these guys show up every week and try to get into the club, but you just show up from time to time. How would that make sense?”

“None of this makes sense. Come on Boris, let’s go get some breadsticks.” said Andretti.

How two rules combined to create a qualifying quagmire

It began as two simple rules to protect certain teams and at the same time ensure fans would see the biggest stars. NASCAR didn’t intend to create a monster, but it has and it is only getting worse. With some drivers losing their guaranteed spot in the top 35, teams are faced with devising a way to return their cars to the safety zone. Now some teams are exploring ways to take a loophole and turn it into a crater big enough to drive the CoT through. Petty Enterprises and Roush-Fenway Racing have cars featuring past champions (Bobby Labonte and Matt Kenseth) that are currently inside the top 35, while other cars are outside the safe zone. There is talk of the teams transferring drivers points in the middle of the season and thus take advantage of their past champion’s provisionals. How did it get to this?

Birth of the Top 35 Rule

In 2004 two drivers that attempted every race, Scott Riggs, Bobby Hamilton and Kyle Petty missed races because they ran out of provisionals and failed to qualify. Their spots were taken by part-time cars. In an effort to protect the teams and sponsors that showed up every week to race, NASCAR created the top 35 rule beginning in 2005. The top 35 teams in the previous year’s owner points were assured a starting spot for the first five races. After the fifth race it would be set on that season’s owner points. At the time the plan made sense because there were less than 43 full time teams. Occasionally a team like Robby Gordon Motorsports would miss a race to a part time field filler, but for the most part the plan worked.

Then in 2006 Michael Waltrip bought Doug Bawel’s 2005 owners points to ensure a starting spot in the first five races. Waltrip quickly squandered the points, but the trend was set. Owner points could be acquired. Waltrip began 2007 by purchasing Cal Wells’ points. Then Morgan-McClure and DEI took it a step further by paying for points after the season had started. Morgan-McClure bought Phoenix Racing’s points in an effort to get the #4 car in the show. In the summer DEI and Ginn Racing merged resulting in sufficient owner for Paul Menard to crack the top 35.

With the introduction of a fourth manufacturer, Toyota, and other teams expanding, there were suddenly 49 teams with intentions of entering every race at the start of 2007. Teams with big money sponsors and faster cars were sent home in favor of the protected teams inside the top 35 that were often less ambitious or just plain slow.

Past Champion Provisional Gets Abused

The past champion’s provisional was a way to allow a former champion an exemption to make a race. The theory was to protect a star driver from missing a race, like Richard Petty or Darrell Waltrip. In theory it too was a fine rule. At the end of his career Darrell Waltrip often used the rule to make races, and while viewed it as pathetic, he was a popular name that surely added fan interest to any given race. In recent years this rule has been abused. Instead of acting as a parachute for a former champion, it’s now being used for brand new teams to gain a foothold or for a floundering team to re-enter the top 35.

In 2005 Joe Gibbs Racing formed a third team with high profile sponsor Fedex. After Jason Leffler struggled to qualify for races, the team hired former champion Terry Labonte to restore the team to the top 35. Taking advantage of the fact that Labonte could make every race with his provisional the #11 car was able to salvage a nightmare season and pave the way for future success of 2006 and 2007.

The following year Labonte was again tapped for his provisional, this time by Hall of Fame Racing’s #96 car. It’s now gone from trend to part of an almost necessary business model for a new Cup team. A model since followed by Dale Jarrett and Michael Waltrip Racing’s #44 car, Bill Elliott and Wood Brothers Racing #21 car and Labonte and Michael Waltrip’s #55 car. The only restriction NASCAR invoked was a 6 race limit per season.

The Current State of Qualifying

Prior to 2008, Penske Racing switched the owners points on their cars. The new #77 car inherited Kurt Busch’s points in order to stretch one car’s guaranteed spot into two. As of race 5, the plan worked. I didn’t agree with the decision to allow the points to be transferred, but at least it was prior to the season.

Now teams are considering shuffling their owner’s points in midseason. Technically there is nothing wrong with this, it’s not breaking any rules, but it is not in the spirit of the rules. It’s something only NASCAR can stop, but they didn’t address the problem prior to 2008 and now it would be inappropriate to do so midstream. The door is already open and NASCAR has essentially invited teams to exploit the two rules as far as possible. It’s not fair to a lot of teams.

Picture this scenario: A smaller team expands to a 2-car outfit, and successfully qualifies both cars into the top 35 without the aid of owner points or past champion provisionals. Although the car is in the top 35, it is unsponsored and has a precarious grip on its top 35 spot. Along comes a bigger team with a car outside the top 35. The big team simply hires a past champion or transfers owners points to the fledging car and voila, big team eclipses small team in the top 35. It’s not a made up scenario. It’s exactly what faces the #70 Haas-CNC car.

Go fast or go home. It’s a phrase no team wants mentioned in conjunction with their cars. With only one race to go before 2008 owner points take effect, the top 35 picture is taking shape. For new teams inside the top 35 it means a guaranteed starting spot. Likewise, the teams that have not cracked the top 35 in 2008 owner points will have to qualify on speed for one of the final eight transfer spots. Once the top 35 gets set after Bristol, the chances of entering or exiting that safe haven decrease each week. That places immense pressure on this week’s race for teams that need to either hang on or move up. Holding the crucial fifth race at the potentially volatile Bristol track makes it even more tense. You can be sure nine or ten teams will be packing extra heartburn medicine this weekend.

Two teams have already locked themselves in for race six at Martinsville. Kurt Busch and Brian Vickers could fail to qualify for Bristol(Busch has a provisional anyway) and still have enough points to stay in the top 35. For other drivers it is less fun. Only 86 points separate 31st through 39th. It sounds like a lot, but making a race guarantees 34 points. If a car currently inside the top 35 like Michael Waltrip misses the race, that opens the door for another outside the top 35.

Right now JJ Yeley sits in the final spot in the top 35 safety zone. He is only 18 points ahead of 36th place Sam Hornish Jr, which is the difference of six places, less with five bonus points for leading a lap. 5 teams that will make the Bristol race due to their 2007 owners points are currently outside the top 35 based on 2008 owners points. The #01, #22, #40, #45, #77 all face the possibility of squandering their early season fortune.

All four rookies currently sit outside the top 35. Sam Hornish Jr, Dario Franchitti, Regan Smith and Patrick Carpentier sit in 36th, 38th, 39th and 46th respectively. Smith is the only driver that has previously raced at Bristol and that could provide an advantage. The tight confines of Bristol pose a much different challenge and smaller margin for error than the wider and bigger speedways the tour raced at the last three weeks.

It’s also interesting that the open wheelers are all struggling mightily. Hornish Jr had a top 15 at Daytona but then wrecked in his next two starts. Franchitti hasn’t wrecked, but simply run at the tail of the field every week. Patrick Carpentier and AJ Allmendinger haven’t qualified for races and sinking their chances before they even had a chance to crash on Sundays. All of this makes Juan Pablo Montoya’s debut even more impressive. At the same point last year Montoya was safely inside the top 35 and scored a top five at Atlanta.

The rookie struggles means, strange as it sounds, that a driver with zero Cup starts could wind up as Rookie of the Year. The #00 has a nice points cushion thanks to David Reutimann making every race so far. After Martinsville, Reutimann will shift to the #44 (also inside the top 35) and rookie Michael McDowell will take the wheel of the #00. He won’t set the world on fire, but he could be the only rookie with a guaranteed starting spot each week.

Rookies, open-wheelers, and open-wheel rookies aren’t the only teams that will need a second coat of Old Spice this weekend. Michael Waltrip Racing currently has all three cars locked inside the top 35, although the #44 and #55 are toeing the edge of the cliff. After a nightmare 2007 debut, Waltrip has rebounded but there is still one more race for each car to make.

Further up in the points are two drivers from marquee teams. Casey Mears in 30th place and Jamie McMurray in 31st are each one bad Bristol crash from plunging into serious danger. Both are top 20 drivers in top 10 equipment, but can’t seem to garner their deserved finishes. It’s one thing to struggle, but another thing entirely to flirt with the top 35.

On the other end of the spectrum is Kyle Petty. He has made every race, but he sits 40th in the points and needs a lot of help or a spectacular run at Bristol to keep his guaranteed starting spot. His teammate Bobby Labonte has been very competitive each week, but Petty has not finished better than 32nd. His 28.5 driver rating exemplifies the team’s struggles. For Petty Enterprises this year it’s one step forward (#43 car) and one backward.

All in all, the bottom 35 is filled with interesting stories. What happens at Bristol will have consequences for the concerned parties for the rest of the year.

Last Week’s Caption Contest Winner

Thanks to everyone that submitted captions. The winner is John. He wins a $20 gift certificate to use at Whatever Sports.

Mediocre teams, consider this your official warning. Toyota was very gracious in their debut to Cup in 2007. It took all season for the cars to literally get up to speed and cost everyone save Dave Blaney a chance at the top 35. 2008 will be different and that means several Camrys will be ready to shake teams from their cozy perches. Teams like Yates Racing, Haas-CNC, Hall of Fame, Petty Enterprises and Robby Gordon have smaller margins for error. It places a greater emphasis on the first 5 races than the rest of the year. The longer you can stay inside the top 35 the better, because those outside the top 35 are likely to miss a race or two.

Last year after Bristol three new teams displaced three others in the top 35. That could certainly happen again this year. Joe Nemecheck, Johnny Sauter and Sterling Marlin all cracked the top 35 with relative ease. Nemechek scored a top ten at Daytona and a 14th at California which were more than enough to cover his 38th at Las Vegas and a DNQ at Bristol. Add in a 17th at Atlanta, and that’s a decent five races, but far from spectacular. That illustrates how tenuous the line between an easy Friday qualifying run and a tense, nail-biting session.

So who will lose their coveted top 35 spot? What cars will swoop in to grab a guaranteed starting spot? Let’s look at the candidates (in order of likeliness).

Inside the bubble-For now

Standing outside waiting to pounce

NASCAR needs to make a stand. Penske Racing officially moved their owners points from the #2 car to the new #77 car over the weekend. It solved one problem for Penske Racing, but opens a handful of problems for other teams and NASCAR’s integrity as well.

To be clear, Penske is not doing anything illegal-they have NASCAR’s backing. The issue is not with Penske, but for NASCAR it’s another example of the trademark inconsistency fans have grown to loathe. Two years ago Penske disbanded the #77 team and relinquished the owners points associated with it. Now NASCAR is essentially allowing them to take back that guaranteed place. Penske is not deserving of any exemption. The team has never had a driver win a championship. Rusty Wallace won his under Raymond Beadle and Kurt Busch won his with Roush Racing. Neither should be credited to Penske, but that is what NASCAR is allowing to happen. A driver can’t take his top 35 position to a new team, but a driver can transfer a champion exemption. It seems like any season result, whether it’s first place or 35th place should be attributed as a team effort. The driver is only one part of that team.

Not only is the move unfair to teams outside the top 35 like Bill Davis Racing, Red Bull and Evernham, it could also affect teams with other past champions. The rule only allows for one provisional per race and priority goes to the most recent champion. That means that Busch would trump Dale Jarrett, Bill Elliott or Bobby Labonte if one or more failed to qualify on time or current points. Suddenly a sponsor like UPS or Little Debbie that had banked on making the first 5 or 6 races might have a change in plans. It’s doubtful Busch will struggle enough to fall outside the top 35 after race 5, but it could happen in one of the first five races.

Last year NASCAR reduced the number of times a driver could use a champion provisional from 36 down to 6. It was a needed change because teams had begun abusing the rule. A similar change should be addressed with owner’s points versus the past champion provisional. Consistency is the key. Link both provisionals to either the driver or the owner, but choose one. The one that makes the most sense is the team. Not only are drivers one piece of the team, but with so many drivers changing every season it would get mighty confusing for fans to track. The other problem if NASCAR moved the top 35 points to drivers is that it would discourage the hiring of drivers outside of the Cup series. That would mean less rookies, less open wheel stars and more action for Jeff Green and Tony Raines. With all due respect to Green and Raines, NASCAR would be worse off without young guns and established open wheel stars. Associating all guaranteed spots to the team owners is the only real solution.

Now it’s up to NASCAR to act before other teams try something similar. If you think this is an isolated incident think about this. Two of the current top teams in Cup are Gibbs Racing and RCR. Both have considered expanding from three to four teams in the next year or two. Under the current rules Gibbs could take Tony Stewart’s owner’s points, assign them to their new fourth team and have Stewart’s past champion provisional for a safety net. RCR’s current driver lineup does not boast a past champion (although Dale Earnhardt obviously won 6 with the company) and would therefore have to rely on speed to make the first five races. The “Penske rule” will pop up again.

With that said, kudos to Penske for utilizing the loophole in the rules.The move guarantees newcomer Sam Hornish Jr will make the first five races while Kurt Busch can also fall back on his past champion’s provisional for the first six races. It’s a smart move that assures Hornish will log laps and gain experience instead of fighting every Friday to make the race. It means Hornish’s season will be closer to Juan Pablo Montoya’s debut than AJ Allmendinger’s. It’s not to say that Hornish will finish in the top 20 or win a race, but it’s a lot better than what fellow open-wheelers Jacques Villeneuve and Patrick Carpentier are facing. Getting a full season of seat time, including all the weekend practices, will pay off more in the long term for Hornish. He is only 27 and is now entering the typical prime for drivers. Right now Penske also has better equipment than Ganassi, so Hornish could do better, maybe even much better, than his dreadful 2007 debut.

• Announcing the first ever Trouble in Turn 2 Giveaway. It’s a UPS truck.

  

  So how do you win it? Give me some feedback. I have created a short survey and value your opinions of this blog. Fill out the survey and I will draw a winner at the end of the month. Even if you think the prize is lame and don’t want to win, I would really appreciate your help to improve the site. Be honest, that’s the only way it will work, and no one besides me will see the answers. As always thanks for reading.

  Click Here to take survey

Two weeks ago at California Michael Waltrip threw down a qualifying lap that was 34^th fastest. It was faster than 10 teams that made the race, but Waltrip took the long early voyage back across the country. After a tumultuous Speedweeks that saw Waltrip exit with negative points, it was another tough result for the #55 team. Four seasons ago Waltrip wouldn’t have had to worry about explaining to NAPA why they missed the race. The problem now is owner’s points. With the top 35 teams assured spots every Sunday, new teams face a serious challenge to make races. The challenge is compounded this year with so many new teams attempting the full Cup schedule.

A common response from fans is “go fast or go home.” It sounds simple, but the issue is far more complex than simply sending slow teams home. Eliminating all guaranteed spots is not possible. There are too many interests involved for this to work.

Fans come to watch the stars. It is one of the unique attractions that NASCAR can offer. Very few sports can guarantee that all of the top drivers will be in the same event every weekend. Even in golf, stars like Tiger Woods don’t play many of the smaller events.

A paying fan can bank of the fact that Dale Earnhardt Jr, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon and almost every other top star will be in the race they choose to attend.

Without some assurance that the stars will race, it opens a door that NASCAR certainly doesn’t want opened. Say Tony Stewart cuts a tire in qualifying at Indianapolis. Suddenly one of the most popular drivers in the sport would not be in the field in one of the biggest races of the year. Stewart fans would miss seeing their favorite driver. Fans who hate Stewart miss out on the chance for their favorite driver to beat Stewart. Race fans as a whole would miss one of the top drivers at one of his favorite tracks. It goes beyond one driver too. If a driver wins, they want beat all the top drivers. Fans want to see a collection of all the top drivers their favorite included.

This also affects the large sponsors. Whether fans like it or not sponsors do have a large say in NASCAR. It makes things murky, but that’s the way it goes when Fortune 500 companies invest seven figures in the sport.

If you are a team inside the top 35, it is a tremendous advantage. First there is little need to work on qualifying setups during practice sessions. They can focus solely on running race trim if desired. Secondly, if they have a safe, slow qualifying lap there is no risk of smacking the wall and ruining a primary car during qualifying.

Guaranteed spots in the field will not go away, but it does need tweaking. The rule’s original intent was to provide some insurance for the teams that attempted every race. Maybe it made sense in 2005 when there were fewer than 43 full time teams. Now there are close to 50 with plans to enter all 36 races. Reduce the number of teams to somewhere between 20 and 25. That way anyone with realistic visions of making the Chase, and this presumably would include most stars, and let everyone else make the race on time.

Another related issue is the Champion’s provisional. NASCAR took a step in the right direction by capping its use to 6 races per season, but they can do more. Make it so a driver can’t use the provisional in consecutive races. That would eliminate teams from hiring a past champion to secure a top 35 spot after five races. Call it the Terry Labonte Rule (it’s nothing against Hall of Fame Racing or Labonte, they played by the rules).

Suddenly instead of 36 of 43 spots guaranteed, the number is reduced to 25. Suddenly 40% of the field is open to the fastest qualifying times. The locked-in drivers would still have an advantage, but it would even the playing field for making each race. Maybe it’s not perfect, but it would be a pretty good compromise.

In European football (soccer for us Yanks) they call it relegation. At the end of the season the bottom three teams in the standings are sent down to the lower division, while three others are promoted. Unlike most US sports leagues, relegation battles create added excitement and interest for teams that otherwise have nothing to play for. Relegation means not only a lower level of competition, but significantly lower revenue. For teams in England, staying in the Premiere League means a piece of a billion dollar TV contract (about $60 million USD per team).

An NFL or NBA team that is out of playoff contention begins playing for next year. This often involves passively improving their draft pick status to land the next franchise player. Aside from waning fan support, there is no incentive for the bottom teams to remain competitive. For a losing franchise in the US, there is no reason to take interest.

Maybe the closest a US sport gets to relegation is NASCAR’s top 35 rule. Teams outside the top 35 in owner points have to qualify on time for seven or eight transfer spots to make each race. It’s not always a popular rule among fans, but it has definitely added excitement and interest for cars near the bottom of the standings. If not for the top 35 rule few would have paid attention to Kyle Petty and Sterling Marlin during the Chase. Instead it was an interesting side story as the season wound down. It also means a big difference in revenue for the teams. Obviously missing a race means no prize money, but also the potential of losing sponsors, the costs of traveling to races and their cut in the year end points fund.

The Nextel Cup is only two races in, but some teams are already in a huge hole for 2007. The first big landmark will come after the Bristol race. At that point the top 35 drivers in owner points are locked in. There are 12 teams attempting to enter the top 35, while 35 other teams attempt to stay anchored in the safety zone.

Based on the past three years, 400 points is the magic number for assured safety. That’s the average points total of the 32^nd place driver after 5 races. With more full time drivers competing to make races, that might be too high. 400 points breaks down to averaging 80 points per race, or finishing 26^th. For drivers like Brian Vickers and Paul Menard, who have already missed one race, the average bumps up to 100 points per race or a top 20 every week. Remember, Scott Riggs missed the Daytona 500 in 2006 and was back inside the top 35 by week 6. It’s not an impossible task.
Twelve drivers are trying to wriggle inside the top 35. The results range from sitting pretty to sitting on the edge of a cliff.

Joe Nemechek-A top ten at Daytona was huge. Nemechek currently has 259 points and sits 7^th in points. Ginn Racing has obviously improved all three teams since last year. Nemechek is an excellent qualifier and the points he’s already accumulated provide additional cushion.

Johnny Sauter-After a disastrous 2004 rookie year with Richard Childress, Sauter has returned from Busch purgatory. He was always a good driver-he won a Busch race in 2005- but couldn’t land another Cup ride until this season. Two top 20 finishes in two races quietly puts Sauter on pace to sit inside the top 35 with room to spare. Maybe the bigger concern is ensuring his teammate Jeff Green is around to join him.

Dale Jarrett-It is a different story for Jarrett without his past champion provisional. Using the provisional buys Jarrett at least six races, but he hasn’t piled up points so far. He is 28^th with 164 points, but struggled all day at California. How bad was it? His driver rating was 32.9 while running all day. Martin Truex Jr, who blew an engine after 14 laps, had a 37.1 driver rating. Jarrett should be fine in the long run, but MWR must find more speed.

Sterling Marlin-Qualifying on speed is old news to Marlin, who spent a large part of 2006 outside the top 35. The cars have been better so far this season, but an early crash at California hurt. Marlin’s 170 points puts him ahead of the 400 point pace, but he can’t afford the crashes that plagued him last season.

Brian Vickers-Team Red Bull finally made a race, and the finish was impressive. Doug Richert and Vickers form the best crew chief-driver combination of the Toyota cars. Vickers needs to average 88 points over the next three races to reach the 400 point mark. Qualifying for the Toyotas has still been troublesome, but once Vickers is in the race he is good enough to get Red Bull up and running.

David Reutimann-So far his record shows to races made on speed and three DNF’s including the Twin 150’s. He has been one of the fastest Toyotas in qualifying and certainly the most consistent of the MWR cars. Unfortunately he doesn’t have very many points to show for it. He sits 41^st with 107 points. With two more speedway races and then the rookie-humbling Bristol, it could be a challenge to make the top 35 after Bristol. Reutimann is definitely capable of making races and eventually entering the top 35.

Paul Menard-All the attention is on his teammates and their blown engines, but Menard had a steady race at California. His 103 points puts him in the ballpark for entering the top 35. He is currently 43^rd, although there are two part time drivers ahead of him that he will pass granted he continues to qualify for races. He was second fastest among Need for Speed drivers at California.

Michael Waltrip-The 100 point penalty from Daytona is enormous. After missing the CaliforniaToyota will figure things out as the season continues and all three of Waltrip’s cars will run better. It just won’t be immediately in the top 35. race, Waltrip still sits at -27 points after two races. What’s worse, his teammates were not very good on the intermediate track.

Jeremy Mayfield-The second Bill Davis team was expected to have a head start on the other Toyota teams because it was an established organization. Mayfield is a good driver and should be able to make two or three of the next few races. It is still a large hole missing the first two races. If he can’t make one of the next two races the year might turn into one big R&D session and building towards 2008. It sounds extreme, but that’s how competitive Cup has become.

AJ Allmendinger-It’s not surprising that the driver with no Cup experience would have the hardest time making races. What is surprising is that Allmendinger isn’t running the Busch series. He ran both truck races but he needs as much seat time as possible and Red Bull had to know it would be tough to do so at the Cup level. At least there are two road courses to circle on the calendar.

Mike Bliss, Ward Burton, Kenny Wallace-These teams all have limited resources and zero Cup starts in 2007. It will be a feat to make more than six races combined this year. It will be a greater feat if all three teams are still entering races by the summer.

With five to six outside drivers in good position to enter the top 35, other drivers will fall. Here are five candidates:

Scott Riggs-With a rough start, Riggs again finds himself with a potential battle for the top 35. The 25 point penalty makes the situation more serious. At least Riggs will get crew chief Rodney Childers back for Las Vegas.

Kyle Petty-The 45 team spent last season struggling to regain a place in the top 35. With better funded teams looking to swoop in, Petty can’t afford many more DNF’s.

Ken Schrader-Schrader was the innocent victim of Dave Blaney’s reckless dive-bomb at Daytona. He is strong at short tracks, but he really needs strong runs at Las Vegas and Atlanta.

Jeff Green-Green had a decent run at Daytona ruined by Jimmie Johnson’s crash. Green has always languished in the high 20’s, but that may not be enough this year.

Dave Blaney-A wreck and a blown engine put Blaney in a hole. He has an established team, but the Camry is far from a finished product. Blaney overachieved last season with an under-supported team. If he falls outside the top 35 to start the season it is a squandered opportunity.

Engines are the biggest single expense on a car. They are also essential for finishing a race. It sounds simple, but think about it. Teams can recover from almost any problem during a race: a flat tire, a crash, a dead battery, even a bad transmission is still not the end of the race. If your engine is done, so is your day.

Horsepower is a big requirement for a good engine, but reliability is even more important. The teams that figure out the formula to maximize both parts have a huge advantage. Certain teams have reputations for stronger engine programs than others, but which ones are truly the best? Since I don’t have a dynometer, or access to the NASCAR garage, I thought the best way to gauge the engine programs was engine failures.

I took the number of DNF’s due to engine failures as noted by Racing Reference. This means that if an engine was headed south, but didn’t expire before the end of the race it wasn’t counted, because it’s impossible to judge that. The quick and dirty answer is counting the number of failures divided by the number of total races. This includes full and part-time teams plus teams that purchase engines from other teams (Ginn, Haas, Petty, etc).

Penske/Jasper engines did not have a failure in 2007, although they only ran 72 total races. Although Penske only won one race, they did score eight poles, which does testify to the horsepower available. Penske’s lack of wins is related to other issues with the cars, but at least the engines appear in good shape. Joe Gibbs Racing supplied engines for four full-time teams and had two failures all year. Two failures in 144 races works out to a 1.4% failure rate. That’s pretty impressive over that many races. Gibbs is one of the premier organizations, and the engine program proves that.

Five other teams (Hendrick, Ganassi/Elliott, Bill Davis, Childress and Yates/Roush) all had a failure rate between 2.6 and 3.0%. For Hendrick and Yates/Roush that is pretty impressive considering the number of teams they each support. Each organization supplied engines for over 300 races in 2006 and both had less than 10 failures. The two other companies with their own engine programs are Evernham (5.6%) and DEI (6.1%). Evernham won six races and eight poles, all on speedways, in 2006. The power is evident, but they have less reliability. At first glance, these two organizations are lacking compared to others.

Digging deeper reveals some interesting numbers. Several organizations lease out engines to smaller teams. Theoretically any team that purchases engines will get the same specs and product as the in-house teams. It’s hard to know for sure what differences there are, but the failure rates almost always increase for teams buying their engines at retail.

The largest engine supplier is Hendrick Motorsports, who support three other full-time teams at Ginn Racing and Haas CNC. They also supplied engines for Michael Waltrip Racing’s five test races. In total, teams ran 115 races with Hendrick retail engines. There were only three failures or a 2.6% rate. That falls directly in line with their overall rate and the in-house failure rate (5 failures in 190 races). Evernham and DEI take much better car of their in-house teams. Evernham’s in-house failure rate was 4.6%, but it jumps to 6.9% for third-party teams. Iin 36 fewer races Petty Enterprises suffered the same number of failures as Evernham’s three full-time teams. DEI’s gap is even larger. They had three failures from their in-house teams, including one from part-time Paul Menard, good for a 3.8% failure rate. Robby Gordon leased DEI power and had three failures himself. That’s an unacceptable 8.3%. Again, it’s difficult to know the exact reasons for failures. It’s still no surprise that Gordon will switch to Ford in 2007, and the engine factor certainly weighed in his decision.

There are so many parts and variables in play for any engine’s performance. It’s a constant struggle to balance maximum horsepower with reliability. Evernham produces great horsepower at the cost of some reliability. Bill Davis and Ganassi showed great reliability, but not necessarily the same strength of other teams. Next year might be totally different. Bill Davis Racing switches to Toyota. It’s very possible they experience greater horsepower with flakier results. All three Toyota outfits are likely to have inconsistent engine programs in year one. Other teams fluctuate from year to year. Look at Childress Racing. Their entire program improved in 2006 while other teams declined. It’s no different for engine departments.

The top 35 will affect everything in 2007. This is especially true for team’s engine programs. A blown engine in the first five races will put a driver in a big points hole. All the time spent in the offseason at the wind tunnel, pit crew practice or preseason testing can go down the drain if an engine fails. For a team hovering around the 35th place, this could prove fatal.