Trouble in Turn2

Mediocre teams, consider this your official warning. Toyota was very gracious in their debut to Cup in 2007. It took all season for the cars to literally get up to speed and cost everyone save Dave Blaney a chance at the top 35. 2008 will be different and that means several Camrys will be ready to shake teams from their cozy perches. Teams like Yates Racing, Haas-CNC, Hall of Fame, Petty Enterprises and Robby Gordon have smaller margins for error. It places a greater emphasis on the first 5 races than the rest of the year. The longer you can stay inside the top 35 the better, because those outside the top 35 are likely to miss a race or two.

Last year after Bristol three new teams displaced three others in the top 35. That could certainly happen again this year. Joe Nemecheck, Johnny Sauter and Sterling Marlin all cracked the top 35 with relative ease. Nemechek scored a top ten at Daytona and a 14th at California which were more than enough to cover his 38th at Las Vegas and a DNQ at Bristol. Add in a 17th at Atlanta, and that’s a decent five races, but far from spectacular. That illustrates how tenuous the line between an easy Friday qualifying run and a tense, nail-biting session.

So who will lose their coveted top 35 spot? What cars will swoop in to grab a guaranteed starting spot? Let’s look at the candidates (in order of likeliness).

Inside the bubble-For now

Standing outside waiting to pounce

What Happened

Like most Cup teams in recent years, Joe Gibbs Racing experienced several changes in 2007. The biggest change was the announcement they were moving to Toyota in 2008. In the short term it took away resources during the Chase as the engine shop prepared for the move. In the long term it’s a great situation for Gibbs.

Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin both made the Chase and won a combined 4 races. Neither was a factor after Kansas in the Chase however. JJ Yeley scored his first top 5 but was still relegated to Gibb’s farm team, also known as Hall of Fame racing. Kyle Busch will replace him in the #18 car, while M&M’s also becomes the primary sponsor over long time Gibbs partner Interstate Batteries.

Hamlin had a gilded second sophomore season. The first part of the year was spent leading laps, dominating races and coming up just short at the finish line. The other side was Hamlin’s occasional frustrations that surfaced. He and Tony Stewart wrecked each other at Daytona in July and then exchanged words. Hamlin also had a similar run-in with Kyle Petty, one of NASCAR’s most respected patriarchs at Dover.

What went well

Stewart won the Brickyard for the second time in three years. It was sandwiched between wins at Chicago and Watkins Glen that marking a strong summer. He easily made the Chase and had another solid season with 3 wins, 11 top 5’s and 23 top 10’s.

Hamlin easily made the Chase and some considered him a dark horse to win it. Hamlin won in July at Loudon after close misses at Bristol, Phoenix, Richmond, Talladega, Darlington and Pocono. He led 711 laps and scored 7 top 5’s and 11to 10’s through the first Loudon race.

Yeley showed improvement in his second season. His first top 5 finish came at Lowe’s in the Coca Cola 600 where he played the fuel mileage game good enough to finish 2nd. The biggest thing for Yeley was reducing the number of DNF’s (from 7 to 4) while increasing his lead lap finishes(from 14 to 18). While his primary numbers (1 top 5, 3 top 10’s) are basically the same as 2006, he did improve 8 positions in the points.

On paper the major changes make sense for Gibbs. With Toyota they are the undisputed top team instead of fighting among Hendrick, RCR and DEI to be Chevy’s top dog. Not only that, but Toyota has far greater resources to throw at racing. That is a strong package for Gibbs, both in the short and especially long term. Busch is also an upgrade over Yeley as a driver, although it’s unclear how the non-driving aspects will work out for Busch.

What went wrong

Stewart had his standard outbursts. He took on NASCAR, the FCC, Juan Pablo-Montoya (who didn’t?), Kurt Busch and at one point even threatened retirement. At times it seemed like Hamlin was trying to outdo Stewart in the attitude category. With Kyle Busch joining the team for 2008, suddenly Gibbs’ classy reputation does not extend to his drivers.

Hamlin had early season pit problems that probably cost him a win or two. At Bristol both Stewart and Hamlin fell victim to a faulty fuel pump cable that erased 443 total laps led among the three Gibbs cars. It was one example of the kind of things that derailed Gibbs’ cars in 2007.

Despite similar resources JJ Yeley couldn’t break through. His pre-stock car resume is impressive, but unlike Stewart, Yeley’s skill hasn’t translated as well in stock cars. Perhaps the hint was dropped when he had to go to Phoenix Racing to race in the Busch Series.

Past Team Reviews

DEI|Michael Waltrip Racing|Penske Racing|Haas-CNC|Team Red Bull

• Announcing the first ever Trouble in Turn 2 Giveaway. It’s a UPS truck.

  

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Three years ago the complaint in NASCAR was that the “Young Gun” would ruin the sport. Drivers lacking experience and age getting cherry rides sometimes without a Busch or Truck win for credentials. First it was 19 year olds Brian Vickers and Kyle Busch getting full time Cup rides with Hendrick Motorsports. Then came drivers like Reed Sorenson, JJ Yeley and David Ragan. The results have been mixed. Busch has four Cup wins and has made the Chase the last two seasons. Vickers has one win and is one of the key figures in Toyota’s debut, but still struggles with consistency. Sorenson and Yeley are still finding their way at the Cup level, although Sorenson is only 21. Ragan is only a rookie, but has improved throughout the season. None of the “Young Guns” have ruined NASCAR. Sure some older drivers have been pushed out of rides earlier than they may have liked, but the youth movement is not as widespread as some would make you believe.

In the last two years a new trend has emerged. With nearly all the young drivers moved to the Cup level, the normal pipelines for new talent dried up. Teams are now luring more accomplished drivers from open wheel series, be it IRL, Formula 1 or Champcar to drive a stock car. First it was Juan Pablo Montoya and AJ Allmendinger. Now Jacques Villeneuve, Dario Franchitti and Patrick Carpentier will follow suit. Sam Hornish Jr is also mulling a full time change to stock cars and Scott Speed is also exploring his stock car options in ARCA. Again some people complain that the open wheel revolution will spoil NASCAR. How? I haven’t seen a good argument. How could having the best drivers in the world race in NASCAR be bad for NASCAR? Would the NBA be better without Dirk Nowitzki, Yao or Tony Parker? Maybe fans would prefer Major League Baseball free of Albert Pujols, Johan Santana, Vlad Guerrero and Ichiro? The fact is it makes NASCAR better. Attracting Indy 500 winners and F1 drivers gives NASCAR international respect and greater credibility.

While the number of open-wheel drivers moving to stock cars has increased, other drivers have come to NASCAR for decades. Two of the greatest drivers ever, Mario Andretti and AJ Foyt both won Daytona 500’s. Tony Stewart won an IRL championship before switching to NASCAR. Stock car racing has always attracted top drivers no matter their background.

I have also heard the argument that this influx of new drivers is putting other drivers out of work. Jeremy Mayfield, David Stremme and Scott Riggs are the three drivers that essentially lost rides in favor of open-wheel drivers. Only Mayfield has won a race at the Cup level and that was three years ago. Mayfield and Bill Davis Racing struggled with sponsorship resulting from missed races. Jacques Villeneuve is an internationally known racer that could cast a wider net for sponsorship opportunities. If Mayfield’s loss means that the Cup field is stronger financially and competitively, then that is a win-win for car owners as well as the overall quality of a Cup race. It’s a sign of a stronger field when drivers formerly considered top drivers now struggle to find work. It’s the same as in any sport with a widened pipeline. The best talent will ultimately rise to the top, whether it’s a driver with southern roots and a late model background or an open wheel star with an international pedigree. The goal to win races and Cup titles is the same for any team and driver, and success in these goals will ultimately determine which drivers are good enough. A driver’s background will not. It shouldn’t matter in a fan’s mind either.

Is it over yet? The fall Charlotte race was only 30 minutes shorter than the spring race despite being 100 miles less. The 15 caution flags matches the Lowe’s fall race record set in 2005. 2005 was the levigated, tires spontaneously failing, last man standing fiasco. Saturday night’s race wasn’t as bad, but it wasn’t very good either. The final ten laps brought some welcome excitement, but the other 327 weren’t quite as good.

If the Chase continues to play out this way, there will suddenly be a lot of Clint Bowyer fans. Sure some will cheer for the #07 car because it’s a good underdog story, but I suspect more people will simply pull for Bowyer because of the ABH factor. Anybody But Hendrick. That said Martinsville is one of Jeff Gordon’s and Jimmie Johnson’s strongest tracks. If something crazy is going to happen it probably won’t be this Sunday.

Other Thoughts

• One of the popular gripes fans have about NASCAR is the inconsistency with rules. When Jeff Green blew an engine and coated the track with oil there were 11 laps left (lap 323). NASCAR correctly red flagged the race so the spill could be properly cleaned up. Then they made the call to run four laps under caution while cleanup efforts continued. The point of stopping the race is to give drivers and fans as many green flag laps as possible. Why run six more caution laps, especially when the track is still not clean? The green flag resumed with five laps to go (lap 329) , they raced four more laps(lap 333) until Ryan Newman’s unfortunate wreck. Somehow the scoring said there were six laps left. Now cars are driving around and running low on fuel. Jimmie Johnson and Martin Truex Jr both had to pit for fuel thanks to the extra laps. Jeff Gordon and Kyle Busch nearly ran out too. I have a problem with NASCAR making cars drive around on unnecessary caution laps, especially when it causes many of the leading cars to have problems. A similar thing happened at the spring Talladega race when several of the cars in the top ten, including leader Denny Hamlin, had to pit late because of a long drawn out caution period.

• Speaking of Newman, talk about the two emotional extremes. First he shoots past three cars to take the lead with six laps to go, then two laps later gets a flat tire and spins. Newman was fast all night, but wasn’t quite as fast as Johnson or teammate Kurt Busch, but it looked like Newman had timed things perfectly when he whizzed by Jeff Gordon for the lead. Then the spin spoiled everything. It reminded me a little of the 2005 Charlotte race when Joe Nemechek led the race late only to get a flat and wreck with 8 laps left.

• Why does Rusty Wallace insist on getting the last word? Several times on Saturday night Andy Petree would sum up a situation and then Wallace would jump in to reiterate the exact same thing. The lack of chemistry is not there and it will be a good change if ESPN trades Wallace for Dale Jarrett.

• For the second week in a row Bobby Labonte ran well until the end. After spending 244 laps in the top ten Labonte got a flat tire late in the race. He did bounce back for a 12th place finish, but it could have been a lot better. Teammate Kyle Petty led 2 laps and finished 18th. It was the first time both Petty Enterprises cars finished inside the top 20 since the spring race at Lowe’s. In that race Petty finished 3rd and Labonte came home 13th. With new crew chief Doug Randolph Labonte has a good chance to score his first top 5 next week at Martinsville.

• Sure Chase drivers took six of the top seven spots, but look at the rest of the top ten. Dave Blaney (6th) scored his second straight top ten while fellow Toyota driver (Toyotan?) Michael Waltrip finished 10th. David Stemme also snuck into the top ten at Lowe’s. Another tip of the hat goes to AJ Allmendinger for his best Cup finish ever in 15th. As I mentioned last week, Toyota is quickly getting their act together and that could be bad news for Dodge and Ford.

Let me hear your thoughts on Saturday night.

[Update: Lowe’s is still Jimmie Johnson’s house. He still had the best car on the track despite his mistake.]

Wild card, unpredictable, crapshoot or crazy. These are the adjectives used for the fall races at Talladega. The nature of restrictor plate racing definitely increases the chances of wrecks, but is it really such a wild card during the Chase? Consider a few facts. In the last three years the points leader has not changed after the Talladega race. Only 5 Chase drivers have finished 36th or worse in the three fall Talladega races. In 2005 Chasers took 4 of the top 5 spots and 5 of the top 10. In 2006 four Chasers finished in the top 10, and if not for a late Brian Vickers dust up, that number would have climbed to 6 of 10. Maybe it’s not such a crapshoot after all.

It’s a pretty simple reason too. The Chase features the teams with the top cars and drivers. Whether it’s a short track, speedway or restrictor plate car, the top teams usually find a way to run up front. Running up front usually avoids trouble (of course that still didn’t work for Junior and Johnson in 2006) at Talladega. It’s also true that the best drivers also increase their chances of avoiding wrecks. It sounds simple but it’s true. Even at a track like Talladega, avoiding wrecks is a skill. A good driver can read the draft, see a wreck developing and react quicker than lesser drivers. That can not be dismissed.

This year’s race is different for a few reasons. It’s the first time a CoT hits a track longer than 1.3 miles and it’s unknown how well it will work in a large pack. There is also the fact that the racing surface is still relatively new, getting repaved last summer. That combination means that Goodyear could pick a harder tire which could really make for a dull race. As we saw at Daytona in February, a hard tire package left a lot of time for single file, strung out racing. Sure the dramatic finish is what most remember, but the first 180 laps were rather tame. I fear the same scenario could play out on Sunday, where a few cars hit the setup and lead a lot of laps. The finish could very well be wild, but I don’t see a ball of 35 cars tightly packed running around all day.

• 13 active drivers have won a race at Talladega. Dale Earnhardt Jr and Jeff Gordon lead the way with 5 wins each. It’s notable that of the 13 active winners, 6 of them (Terry Labonte, Bill Elliott, Sterling Marlin, Mark Martin, Ken Schrader and James Hylton) are partially retired. I’m not sure how that pertains to Sunday’s race, but anytime you can work James Hylton’s name into a list with Terry Labonte, Bill Elliott and Mark Martin it’s fun.

• David Gilliland won last fall’s pole and essentially tied Gordon for the pole this spring but settled for the front row. Amazingly he is still looking for his first lap led at Talladega. At non-restrictor plate tracks, Gilliland has zero top tens and only 4 top 20 finishes all season. At plate tracks he has finished 8th, 4th, and 11th. The Yates horsepower will again be on display, but how well that translates to the CoT is the big question for Gilliland.

  Meanwhile his teammate this week will be Mike Wallace, who replaces his brother Kenny. Mike Wallace scored an unexpected 5th place finish at Daytona this spring and has 7 career top 10’s at restrictor plate tracks. He is capable and should have better equipment than Phoenix Racing typically affords him.

• There are 51 drivers on the Cup entry list. That is a lot of cars, but imagine starting a race with 60 cars. That’s how many were entered in a 1973 race at Talladega. Not only were they all entered, but they all raced. Granted it wasn’t a restrictor plate race back then, but imagine the sound of 60 cars taking the green flag. David Pearson won the race, lapping the field.

• Dave Blaney has the most starts (13) without a top ten. Greg Biffle is second with 9 starts with no top tens. Biffle has three straight DNF’s at Talladega, but he does have a restrictor plate win, thanks to his 2003 Pepsi 400 triumph.

• Looking for a sleeper at Talladega? How about Casey Mears. He doesn’t have the results to show, but his driver rating in the spring Talladega race was a healthy 90.6 before teammate Jimmie Johnson punted him. He also led 11 laps and held a late lead at the Pepsi 400 before getting shuffled back to 19th.

• Bold prediction of the week: A driver will complain a) about getting taken out by a teammate or b)not getting drafting help from a teammate, and then declare they are no longer really teammates. I told you it was bold.

• Meek prediction of the week: Matt Kenseth will win the race. I haven’t done very well with my predictions all year and I really don’t know how this race will play out. My suspicion is that the tires plus poor handling, poor drafting CoT’s will mean someone will run up front a lot. Kurt Busch has led a ton of laps in several races and could do so again, but in the end the pack will bunch up allowing for several contenders. Kenseth is very good in the draft and has already pushed Kevin Harvick and Jamie McMurray to plate wins in 2007. Now it’s his turn.

Who’s your pick for Sunday?

Atlanta was just what NASCAR needed: An exciting race with few cautions and even less controversy. After the cheating at Daytona, lots of cautions (including disputed debris) at California, the tire complaints and wrecks at Las Vegas an uneventful weekend suited all parties well. A tight finish made things even better. Unfortunately, the racing will take a weekend or two off while the focus returns to the Car of Tomorrow. Expect widespread panic this week as several teams complain about the new car, while the few teams that did their winter homework laugh all the way to Victory Lane.

I had to tape the race and watched it last night. As a result I was more concerned with finishing the race than analyzing the various coverage elements. Many will say that’s a good thing. The one thing that stuck out to me was green flag runs give the Fox crew less time to goof around. That means they are talking about racing instead of showing needless fluff or allowing DW to go off on tangents. I though the coverage was pretty good on Sunday.

A few thoughts:
Ignore DW because Mark Martin will not make the Chase. He plans to miss the next two races and will certainly skip more during the summer. Say he misses two races that he normally scores top 20’s. Considering how he has run so far this year, that’s a safe estimate. That’s at least 206 points Martin leaves on the table. It would be tough to make that difference up. That’s also not accounting for any bad runs Martin has. Martin doesn’t seem to care, so why does everyone else want to make a big deal out of it?

-Props to Mike Bliss and BAM racing. They failed to qualify in the first three races, but Bliss was 9^th fastest at Atlanta and finished 21^st.

-Juan Pablo Montoya had a great run at Atlanta. Ganassi’s equipment is really improved and Montoya is learning quickly. After his first Cup top 5 his reward is 1000 laps of short track racing over the next two weeks. People can complain about Montoya saturation, but he is pretty exciting to watch. One of the most impressive things about Montoya’s run was the tire management. Teams were reporting minor tire issues and other cars struggled on long runs. Montoya drove aggressively but consistently. Consider that in Formula 1, the cars run one set of tires for two entire races.

-Setting aside the engine woes at California, DEI might have graduated from being an overgrown one-car team. There are early signs that they finally have two teams that can run well every week. Martin Truex Jr scored a top ten Sunday and ran well at Daytona and Las Vegas too. Dale Earnhardt Jr has spent the majority of the last two weeks in the top five, but hasn’t finished well. The finishes will come at the speedways. It’s a significant improvement over previous years where Earnhardt Jr was the only car capable of running up front every week. Now we’ll see if DEI paid attention to the Car of Tomorrow.

Who Would Have Predicted…
…That Evernham cars would have two top ten’s and none on the intermediate tracks where they usually run so well.

…That David Ragan would have more top fives (1) than Greg Biffle (0).

…The most consistent Dodge to date would be David Stremme.

…That Toyota would have this much trouble. Only one car (#44 Dale Jarrett) currently sits inside the top 35. David Reutimann can’t seem to avoid trouble. He now has 3 crashes in 3 races and sits 43^rd in points.

…That James Hylton would have as many points as Jeremy Mayfield and AJ Allmendinger and more than Michael Waltrip.

…That after four races, there is no sign of a feud between any two drivers. That should change next weekend in a small Tennessee town called Bristol.

In European football (soccer for us Yanks) they call it relegation. At the end of the season the bottom three teams in the standings are sent down to the lower division, while three others are promoted. Unlike most US sports leagues, relegation battles create added excitement and interest for teams that otherwise have nothing to play for. Relegation means not only a lower level of competition, but significantly lower revenue. For teams in England, staying in the Premiere League means a piece of a billion dollar TV contract (about $60 million USD per team).

An NFL or NBA team that is out of playoff contention begins playing for next year. This often involves passively improving their draft pick status to land the next franchise player. Aside from waning fan support, there is no incentive for the bottom teams to remain competitive. For a losing franchise in the US, there is no reason to take interest.

Maybe the closest a US sport gets to relegation is NASCAR’s top 35 rule. Teams outside the top 35 in owner points have to qualify on time for seven or eight transfer spots to make each race. It’s not always a popular rule among fans, but it has definitely added excitement and interest for cars near the bottom of the standings. If not for the top 35 rule few would have paid attention to Kyle Petty and Sterling Marlin during the Chase. Instead it was an interesting side story as the season wound down. It also means a big difference in revenue for the teams. Obviously missing a race means no prize money, but also the potential of losing sponsors, the costs of traveling to races and their cut in the year end points fund.

The Nextel Cup is only two races in, but some teams are already in a huge hole for 2007. The first big landmark will come after the Bristol race. At that point the top 35 drivers in owner points are locked in. There are 12 teams attempting to enter the top 35, while 35 other teams attempt to stay anchored in the safety zone.

Based on the past three years, 400 points is the magic number for assured safety. That’s the average points total of the 32^nd place driver after 5 races. With more full time drivers competing to make races, that might be too high. 400 points breaks down to averaging 80 points per race, or finishing 26^th. For drivers like Brian Vickers and Paul Menard, who have already missed one race, the average bumps up to 100 points per race or a top 20 every week. Remember, Scott Riggs missed the Daytona 500 in 2006 and was back inside the top 35 by week 6. It’s not an impossible task.
Twelve drivers are trying to wriggle inside the top 35. The results range from sitting pretty to sitting on the edge of a cliff.

Joe Nemechek-A top ten at Daytona was huge. Nemechek currently has 259 points and sits 7^th in points. Ginn Racing has obviously improved all three teams since last year. Nemechek is an excellent qualifier and the points he’s already accumulated provide additional cushion.

Johnny Sauter-After a disastrous 2004 rookie year with Richard Childress, Sauter has returned from Busch purgatory. He was always a good driver-he won a Busch race in 2005- but couldn’t land another Cup ride until this season. Two top 20 finishes in two races quietly puts Sauter on pace to sit inside the top 35 with room to spare. Maybe the bigger concern is ensuring his teammate Jeff Green is around to join him.

Dale Jarrett-It is a different story for Jarrett without his past champion provisional. Using the provisional buys Jarrett at least six races, but he hasn’t piled up points so far. He is 28^th with 164 points, but struggled all day at California. How bad was it? His driver rating was 32.9 while running all day. Martin Truex Jr, who blew an engine after 14 laps, had a 37.1 driver rating. Jarrett should be fine in the long run, but MWR must find more speed.

Sterling Marlin-Qualifying on speed is old news to Marlin, who spent a large part of 2006 outside the top 35. The cars have been better so far this season, but an early crash at California hurt. Marlin’s 170 points puts him ahead of the 400 point pace, but he can’t afford the crashes that plagued him last season.

Brian Vickers-Team Red Bull finally made a race, and the finish was impressive. Doug Richert and Vickers form the best crew chief-driver combination of the Toyota cars. Vickers needs to average 88 points over the next three races to reach the 400 point mark. Qualifying for the Toyotas has still been troublesome, but once Vickers is in the race he is good enough to get Red Bull up and running.

David Reutimann-So far his record shows to races made on speed and three DNF’s including the Twin 150’s. He has been one of the fastest Toyotas in qualifying and certainly the most consistent of the MWR cars. Unfortunately he doesn’t have very many points to show for it. He sits 41^st with 107 points. With two more speedway races and then the rookie-humbling Bristol, it could be a challenge to make the top 35 after Bristol. Reutimann is definitely capable of making races and eventually entering the top 35.

Paul Menard-All the attention is on his teammates and their blown engines, but Menard had a steady race at California. His 103 points puts him in the ballpark for entering the top 35. He is currently 43^rd, although there are two part time drivers ahead of him that he will pass granted he continues to qualify for races. He was second fastest among Need for Speed drivers at California.

Michael Waltrip-The 100 point penalty from Daytona is enormous. After missing the CaliforniaToyota will figure things out as the season continues and all three of Waltrip’s cars will run better. It just won’t be immediately in the top 35. race, Waltrip still sits at -27 points after two races. What’s worse, his teammates were not very good on the intermediate track.

Jeremy Mayfield-The second Bill Davis team was expected to have a head start on the other Toyota teams because it was an established organization. Mayfield is a good driver and should be able to make two or three of the next few races. It is still a large hole missing the first two races. If he can’t make one of the next two races the year might turn into one big R&D session and building towards 2008. It sounds extreme, but that’s how competitive Cup has become.

AJ Allmendinger-It’s not surprising that the driver with no Cup experience would have the hardest time making races. What is surprising is that Allmendinger isn’t running the Busch series. He ran both truck races but he needs as much seat time as possible and Red Bull had to know it would be tough to do so at the Cup level. At least there are two road courses to circle on the calendar.

Mike Bliss, Ward Burton, Kenny Wallace-These teams all have limited resources and zero Cup starts in 2007. It will be a feat to make more than six races combined this year. It will be a greater feat if all three teams are still entering races by the summer.

With five to six outside drivers in good position to enter the top 35, other drivers will fall. Here are five candidates:

Scott Riggs-With a rough start, Riggs again finds himself with a potential battle for the top 35. The 25 point penalty makes the situation more serious. At least Riggs will get crew chief Rodney Childers back for Las Vegas.

Kyle Petty-The 45 team spent last season struggling to regain a place in the top 35. With better funded teams looking to swoop in, Petty can’t afford many more DNF’s.

Ken Schrader-Schrader was the innocent victim of Dave Blaney’s reckless dive-bomb at Daytona. He is strong at short tracks, but he really needs strong runs at Las Vegas and Atlanta.

Jeff Green-Green had a decent run at Daytona ruined by Jimmie Johnson’s crash. Green has always languished in the high 20’s, but that may not be enough this year.

Dave Blaney-A wreck and a blown engine put Blaney in a hole. He has an established team, but the Camry is far from a finished product. Blaney overachieved last season with an under-supported team. If he falls outside the top 35 to start the season it is a squandered opportunity.

For a lot of teams Speedweeks this year is not very fun. Some very high profile, not to mention well-sponsored teams are not going make the Daytona 500. After single car qualifying, there are now 39 drivers locked in for next Sunday: the top 35 in owner points, Boris Said, Sterling Marlin and Johnny Sauter based on speed, plus Dale Jarrett’s champion’s provisional. Quick math shows there’s only four spots left for the Daytona 500. Among the 22 teams on the bubble, nine have plans to run the entire schedule. Most have sponsorship, including prominent companies like NAPA, Dominos, Menards, and Red Bulll. At least five are leaving on Thursday. That means several teams will spend the next three days worrying and working on their cars to find more speed. It also means working on their answer to sponsors for why they missed NASCAR’s highest profile race.

Is it possible that Thursday’s Duel 150’s could have more intrigue than Sunday’s race? That’s a stretch, but for a lot of teams it will set a tone for the season. Miss a race and it makes it much harder to enter the top 35 in points. Within the greater storyline to make the race, there are several smaller plots. Among the cars competing for the transfer spots, there are three formerDaytona 500 winners. Of the eight Toyota entries, only Jarrett and Dave Blaney have guaranteed spots. Two are certain to miss the race, but based on qualifying speeds, it will be more. Neither Toyota driver in the BudShooutout (Brian Vickers , Jarrett) did anything to show they are better in the draft than qualifying. Another problem is that one of the fastest Toyota’s was Mike Skinner, a part-time entry. If Skinner makes the race, but teammate JeremyMayfield doesn’t, how will Bill Davis handle that?

The two highest finishing drivers in each heat will make the race, with a few exceptions. If any of the three top qualifiers (Said, Sauter or Marlin) finish in the first two transfer spots, the next fastest qualifier makes the race, which is Jeremy Mayfield, then David Reutimann . The same would happen with the past Champion provisional. If Jarrett captures on the the transfer spots, then the provisional would fall to Bill Elliott.

Handicapping the field, Jeremy Mayfield is in good shape in Heat 1. Ward Burton and Bill Elliott have both won Daytona 500’s, but can’t overcome the limits of their cars. AJ Allmendinger has one plate race in the Truck Series and Team Red Bull is yet to qualify for a Cup race. It’s a real long shot for Allmendinger. It is hard enough for a rookie to get drafting help, let alone a rookie with almost no stock car experience. Michael Waltrip’s car was impounded after qualifying. Apparently it’s not an infraction, but it does cost the team time that they can’t work on the car.Waltrip is a good plate racer who is capable of hooking up with the right drafting partners. It’s a big help to have his teammate Jarrett in his heat.

In heat 2, David Reutimann is a rookie, but has raced in 6 plate races in the Truck and Busch series. He was one of the fastest Toyotas and has the best chance of the Toyotas to make the field. DEI traditionally has stronger cars in race trim which should allow Paul Menard to compete better than his qualifying time suggests. JoeNemechek will hope for the same thing, and Ginn racing does have Hendrick power to boos that effort. Brian Vickers is a good plate racer but the Toyotas haven’t been very strong so far. Unless he learned something on Saturday night, his chances do not look very good. The X factor as far as full-time teams are concerned is Mike Skinner. He has made two of the last threeDaytona 500’s as a part time driver and was one of the quicker cars on Sunday.

All the preparation, speed and drafting partners still might not be enough. Scott Riggs had a mechanical issue during qualifying and then a problem in the pits cost him his chance in the 500. Menard suffered a flat tire in his heat last year. The unknown only adds more pressure and anxiety for the drivers leading up to Thursday afternoon. Obviously missing the first race is not a fatal blow, look at Riggs for exhibit A. The problem is there will be 12 full-time teams next week at California all trying to make the race all over again.

Brian Vickers Age: 23
1 win, 5 top 5’s, 9 top 10’s, 14 top 15’s
Avg start: 16.8 Avg Finish: 19.2
Points Standing: 15th Driver Rating: 76.3
#83 Red Bull Toyota Crew Chief: Doug Richert

If Brian Vickers got his fortune told this time last year, it would go something like this:
“After four years driving for Hendrick Motorsports you will leave for a brand new Toyota team. Then you will be banned from team meetings and given the cold shoulder by teammates. On the bright you will finally get your first Cup win. The bad news is it will be one of the most unpopular wins in recent years, coming at the expense of a teammate, plus the most famous driver in the sport. Other than that, it should be a pretty uneventful year. Good Luck.”

That is Vicker’s season in a nutshell. He had a lot of positive things happen, but they were usually overshadowed by a negative consequence. To his credit, Vickers handled things with maturity and tried his best to focus on racing. The biggest story for his season was his announcement he was leaving Hendrick Motorsports. Shortly after he signed with the upstart Team Red Bull.

Vickers’ 2006 season was solid but not spectacular. He scored his first win and improved two positions in the points, but it was a very similar season to 2005. He would have some nice runs coupled with several mediocre ones. In fact he didn’t have back to back top tens until the 29th and 30th races. As the season progressed his finishes did improve overall. The first 18 races his average finish was 20.9, while his average in the second half was 17.5. It was even better during the Chase when he averaged 14.8, including four top tens. The other improvement forVickers was finishing races. He had a mere 2 DNF’s, down from four in 2005, and seven in 2004.

2007 might be the most challenging season yet for Vickers. A brand new Toyota team has lots of questions to answer. One big asset is his crew chief, Doug Richert. Richert helped Greg Biffle won 10 races in the last three years and is highly regarded in the garage. His experience dates back to working on Dale Earnhardt’s team in the early 80’s. Pairing a veteran crew chief with young driver is a popular and often successful combination in Cup.

Richert’s first task is ensuring Vickers makes every race. the good news is Vickers is an excellent qualifier. In 2006 he had 14 top ten starts including one pole at Texas. His career average start is 16.0. With no owners points to start this will be paramount in 2007. Vickers must make the first five races based on time. He shouldn’t have a problem, but things can happen in qualifying. A flat tire, a bobble in a turn or a bad setup could foil the best plans. A missed race will not ruin his season, but would be a setback.

At Hendrick, Vickers was able to gather information and advice from established veterans like Jeff Gordon, Terry Labonte and Jimmie Johnson. His new team will not have that luxury. Vickers teammate is rookie AJ Allmendinger. Making a switch from open-wheel racing to stock cars presents a huge challenge for Allmendinger. That places any expectations for success in 2007 squarely on Vickers.

Vickers’ specialty is 2.5 mile tracks. He is an excellent plate racer at both Daytona and Talladega. He nearly won the Daytona 500 and the spring Talladega race. His average finish at Pocono is 8.5, including three top five finishes. Vickers is still refining his skills at short tracks, but he does excel at the 1-mile flat tracks like Phoenix and Loudon.

The move marks a fresh start for Vickers. He took a lot of criticism in his three years in the #25 car. The switch was widely questioned in the media and assumed it was based on money. Surely millions of dollars played a part, but there are plenty of reasons for Vickers to switch teams. Sometimes people lose sight of the fact that Vickers is only 23. He is a talented driver that has dealt with a lot in his young career. He won a Busch Championship before he could legally drink Busch beer. He endured the Hendrick plane crash in 2004. As long as he was at Hendrick he would be fourth priority. A switch to Toyota gives Vickers the chance to be the number one driver and be recognized for his talent instead of a cog in the Hendrick machine. It’s a bold move, but at least he has the chance to shine on his own. Now the rest is up to Vickers.

Engines are the biggest single expense on a car. They are also essential for finishing a race. It sounds simple, but think about it. Teams can recover from almost any problem during a race: a flat tire, a crash, a dead battery, even a bad transmission is still not the end of the race. If your engine is done, so is your day.

Horsepower is a big requirement for a good engine, but reliability is even more important. The teams that figure out the formula to maximize both parts have a huge advantage. Certain teams have reputations for stronger engine programs than others, but which ones are truly the best? Since I don’t have a dynometer, or access to the NASCAR garage, I thought the best way to gauge the engine programs was engine failures.

I took the number of DNF’s due to engine failures as noted by Racing Reference. This means that if an engine was headed south, but didn’t expire before the end of the race it wasn’t counted, because it’s impossible to judge that. The quick and dirty answer is counting the number of failures divided by the number of total races. This includes full and part-time teams plus teams that purchase engines from other teams (Ginn, Haas, Petty, etc).

Penske/Jasper engines did not have a failure in 2007, although they only ran 72 total races. Although Penske only won one race, they did score eight poles, which does testify to the horsepower available. Penske’s lack of wins is related to other issues with the cars, but at least the engines appear in good shape. Joe Gibbs Racing supplied engines for four full-time teams and had two failures all year. Two failures in 144 races works out to a 1.4% failure rate. That’s pretty impressive over that many races. Gibbs is one of the premier organizations, and the engine program proves that.

Five other teams (Hendrick, Ganassi/Elliott, Bill Davis, Childress and Yates/Roush) all had a failure rate between 2.6 and 3.0%. For Hendrick and Yates/Roush that is pretty impressive considering the number of teams they each support. Each organization supplied engines for over 300 races in 2006 and both had less than 10 failures. The two other companies with their own engine programs are Evernham (5.6%) and DEI (6.1%). Evernham won six races and eight poles, all on speedways, in 2006. The power is evident, but they have less reliability. At first glance, these two organizations are lacking compared to others.

Digging deeper reveals some interesting numbers. Several organizations lease out engines to smaller teams. Theoretically any team that purchases engines will get the same specs and product as the in-house teams. It’s hard to know for sure what differences there are, but the failure rates almost always increase for teams buying their engines at retail.

The largest engine supplier is Hendrick Motorsports, who support three other full-time teams at Ginn Racing and Haas CNC. They also supplied engines for Michael Waltrip Racing’s five test races. In total, teams ran 115 races with Hendrick retail engines. There were only three failures or a 2.6% rate. That falls directly in line with their overall rate and the in-house failure rate (5 failures in 190 races). Evernham and DEI take much better car of their in-house teams. Evernham’s in-house failure rate was 4.6%, but it jumps to 6.9% for third-party teams. Iin 36 fewer races Petty Enterprises suffered the same number of failures as Evernham’s three full-time teams. DEI’s gap is even larger. They had three failures from their in-house teams, including one from part-time Paul Menard, good for a 3.8% failure rate. Robby Gordon leased DEI power and had three failures himself. That’s an unacceptable 8.3%. Again, it’s difficult to know the exact reasons for failures. It’s still no surprise that Gordon will switch to Ford in 2007, and the engine factor certainly weighed in his decision.

There are so many parts and variables in play for any engine’s performance. It’s a constant struggle to balance maximum horsepower with reliability. Evernham produces great horsepower at the cost of some reliability. Bill Davis and Ganassi showed great reliability, but not necessarily the same strength of other teams. Next year might be totally different. Bill Davis Racing switches to Toyota. It’s very possible they experience greater horsepower with flakier results. All three Toyota outfits are likely to have inconsistent engine programs in year one. Other teams fluctuate from year to year. Look at Childress Racing. Their entire program improved in 2006 while other teams declined. It’s no different for engine departments.

The top 35 will affect everything in 2007. This is especially true for team’s engine programs. A blown engine in the first five races will put a driver in a big points hole. All the time spent in the offseason at the wind tunnel, pit crew practice or preseason testing can go down the drain if an engine fails. For a team hovering around the 35th place, this could prove fatal.