Trouble in Turn2

[Note: Blogging is a great thing. It allows for freedom and flexibility. These things only apply with the help of a computer, which in my case went AWOL Sunday night. My apologies.]

All right people, move along. Kyle Busch won another Cup race. Nothing to see here.

After Dale Earnhardt Jr passed Busch on the second lap of the race it looked like Busch would be relegated to a middling finish. Instead Busch got off sequence with most of the leaders, pitted earlier and suddenly grabbed the lead and his sequence won out. Given the fact that Busch was joined by his Gibbs Racing teammates, Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin, on the early pit stop makes you wonder if it was all planned to sandbag the first 15-20 laps.

While some are noting that Busch is closing in on the #1 seed in the Chase, he has already clinched it. Carl Edwards could match his 8 wins, but because of the penalty at Las Vegas he can’t match Busch’s 80 bonus points. The other thing to take away from Watkins Glen is that aside from Busch’s 10 bonus points, the race has zero bearing on what will transpire during the Chase. There are no road races during the Chase, so teams can’t really apply anything they learned on Sunday. Plus the concept of momentum is as effective as the rabbit’s foot on Bobby Labonte’s keychain (seriously, I can’t name a driver that gets caught up in more bad wrecks than Labonte).

While the race won’t have a bearing on the Chase, it did highlight how off Jeff Gordon and Steve Letarte have been at times this year. They’ve struggled at other tracks this year, most notably at certain intermediate speedways, but Gordon is one of the elite road course racers. To struggle at Watkins Glen, especially when teammates Dale Earnhardt Jr and Jimmie Johnson ran well, was shocking. While Letarte won’t have to set up another road car, the fact that they missed a fundamental chance for a good day is noteworthy in the Chase.

Hello, my name is Glen. I’m from upstate New York. I throw a party once a year and invite all of my friends to come and hang out for the weekend. My political views are pretty balanced, sometimes I go to the left, other times I lean to the right. Not everyone is used to this balanced path and sometimes it can be frustrating for my friends with less experience at my parties. Alright, I admit it used to be fun playing tricks on these people and watching them spin and get caught in the quicksand, but I’ve matured in recent years. No more sand traps or food poisoning (sorry Tony), only good times and clean fun. Remember 2006? Both the Busch and Cup races featured fierce battles for the lead in the closing laps. So you’re all invited to join the party and hang out this weekend.

What Happened Last Year

Jeff Gordon had the dominant car and with 2 laps left he was apparently already dreaming of his Victory Lane kiss from Ingrid when he went wide on a turn allowing Tony Stewart to squeeze by for the win. Gordon wound up 9th. Of course no one cared about that on Monday morning because Kevin Harvick and Juan Pablo Montoya rubbed each other’s faces after a wreck. Harvick was mad at Montoya for starting a wreck. Montoya was mad because it wasn’t his fault. So they both decided to engage in some quasi-fisticuffs.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champs: Ryan Newman Newman has three top tens in six tries. He is still a very good road course racer and won the 2005 Busch race. It might be a small stretch for a Champ pick, but this week’s options are limited.

Chumps: Clint Bowyer It’s not that Bowyer is a bad road racer, he has a 15.0 average finish at The Glen. It’s just that nearly every other top 12 driver is capable of a lot more.

Sleepers: Marcos Ambrose Kangaroo Meat is fast on road courses. The next step is showing he can avoid the ire of other top drivers and can finish the race in one piece.

Who Will Win?

Jeff Gordon is going to finish the job this year. His record on road courses one of the best in Cup history. And he won’t slip up at the end of the race this time.

Until last year the second Pocono race fell prior to the Brickyard 400. Under that arrangement we all believed that Pocono served as a tuneup for the Brickyard. We could catch a glimpse of who might run well at one of NASCAR’s elite events. Nevermind the fact that only two drivers, Jeff Gordon (’98) and Bill Elliott (’02) have won a Pocono race and the Brickyard 400 in the same season. We wanted to believe that the second Pocono had a place of meaning on the schedule. Now it’s the week after the Brickyard, granting it slightly more importance than the Pro Bowl in relation to the Super Bowl. It’s a points paying race, but boy is it hard for a fan to get excited about it. The one advantage Pocono does have is that it promises to be feature the longest green flag runs in three weeks and tires shouldn’t be an issue. I realize I’m hard on Pocono, but I also admit I will watch with the same weekly interest and the hope for a good race. The spring race was one of the more exciting Pocono finishes in recent years in fact.

What Happened Last Year

Dale Earnhardt Jr won his first Cup pole since 2002 but couldn’t hold back Kurt Busch. Busch led 175 of 200 laps and cruised to an easy victory. The race paralleled the points battle between the two drivers that also saw Busch eclipse Earnhardt Jr for 12th place and the final Chase spot. The race was also notable for the absence of Robby Gordon. He was busy sitting in a corner on timeout thanks to his antics at the Montreal Busch race the day before.

Notes

AJ Allmendinger and Red Bull Racing are only one or two solid runs from cracking the top 35 in owner points. Allmendinger failed to qualify for the first two races of the season and was then replaced by Mike Skinner for the next six. After returning to the car at Talladega, Allmendinger has run very well and only sits 63 points shy of 35th place Scott Riggs.

Chad McCumbee will drive the #45 for Petty Enterprises this weekend. McCumbee has failed to qualify at Texas and Dover, but did finish 25th in a Pocono race last year while subbing for Kyle Petty. Petty will return to the car next week at Watkins Glen. It doesn’t look like Petty Enterprises is in a huge rush to get Petty back in the seat which is the strongest signal yet that Petty is nearing retirement. Whether it’s Kyle Petty’s decision or not, more time out of the car will allow him to devote more time and energy to greater things like the Victory Junction Gang Camp. Petty definitely has some very personal reasons for remaining behind the wheel of the #45 and if it NASCAR rides were based on merit over performance Petty would have a ride for life.

5 Drivers Who Like Pocono

Jimmie Johnson has two wins in 13 starts. He only has one finish worse than 15th in his career which includes 4 top 5’s and 8 top 10’s. Johnson has run well all summer and more wins should follow his Indy triumph (please don’t call it momentum).

Kurt Busch has seven top fives including 2 wins and four 2nd place finishes.

Denny Hamlin won his first two times at Pocono in 2006. Since then he has never finished worse than 6th and has led 300 laps in only five starts.

Tony Stewart owns the third best driver rating(102.2) over the last seven Pocono events. He led 14 laps at the June race and appeared set for a top 5 run but was caught speeding on pit row, pinning him a lap down and relegated to 35th.

Ryan Newman has won the pole twice, the race once and has five other top 5’s. His 13.9 average finish is also above average.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Kurt Busch See above. No matter what the rest of Busch’s season looks like (and right now it looks bleak), he always finds a way to run well at the Triangle of Tedium.

Chump: Clint Bowyer Bowyer hasn’t run well at speedways all season and that trend will likely continue at Pocono.

Sleeper: AJ Allmendinger: Check out his recent speedway driver ratings: Pocono I(95.2), Michigan (79.7), Chicago (83.2), Indy (98.4). That’s a driver ready for some top ten finishes.

Check out One Bad Wheel for more Fantasy news and info on Sleepers.

Who Will Stay Awake Win?

Before I get to this week’s pick, it’s important to remind everyone of the cardinal rule of Fantasy sports: Don’t Outsmart Yourself. Over the past few weeks I have grown tired of choosing Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson to win races each week. So this past week for the Brickyard I decided to tab a darkhorse, Brian Vickers to win. Vickers finished 42nd with an engine failure. While Vickers has certainly impressed this year and is a front runner on speedways, Red Bull Racing isn’t quite ready for prime time and it cost me.

That means this week I’m sticking my hand back into the heavy favorites hat and pulling out a name.

In five races Denny Hamlin has a 130.4 driver rating. That is not the result of one fast car or lucking out. Denny Hamlin is simply awesome at Pocono. After a pit road mistake cost him the race at Indy, you can be sure that was a point of emphasis at the Gibbs shop this week.

This week’s race at Infineon raceway might be the perfect storm for NASCAR. With the influx of open wheel drivers plus the incumbents that can wheel a stock car, the season’s first road course has the potential to be one of the best races of the season. There are very few places at Sonoma to pass cars, so minimizing driving errors is enormous. A slip somewhere else on the track can throw a driver’s rhythm off for the next several turns. There is also a lot of contact at road courses, arguably more than recent Bristol races. Even better, the contact can often lead to emotions boiling over. Witness last year’s Watkins Glen quasi-fisticuffs between Kevin Harvick and Juan Pablo Montoya.

With a number of teams hiring road course aces to drive this weekend, fans will need a scorecard to keep track of all the changes. In lieu of a scorecard, here’s a quick primer.

Ron Fellows hops in the #01 car for Regan Smith. Is it me or does anyone else think of the Brian Fellows SNL skit with Tracy Morgan when you mention Ron Fellows?

Mark Martin takes a week off to kick it with his homies. That means Aric Almirola straps into the #8 car. Does Almirola count as a ringer?

Marcos “Kangaroo Meat” Ambrose gets his turn on the #21 Wood Brothers merry-go-round. Past incidents with both Robby Gordon and Boris Said mean NASCAR should grant him a provisional on the basis of entertainment.

Dario Franchitti, road course ace, will replace Dario Franchitti, oval newbie, in the #40 car.

Scott Pruett replaces the listless Reed Sorenson in the #41. Even in bad Chip Ganassi equipment, who thought Sorenson would be this bad?

Max Papis will drive the #66 Haas machine while Scott Riggs shifts to the #70. Big deal, both cars are outside the top 35, right? The #66 is on the edge of the top 35 while the #70 has no realistic chance of rejoining the safety bubble. Haas’ hope is to have Papis build a nice cushion so that Riggs can then return next week with a guaranteed spot. Considering the closest competition is Michael McDowell and Michael Waltrip, it’s a pretty smart move by Haas.

What Happened Last Year

Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson began the week with cars that failed inspection, eventually resulting in penalties, and had to start from the back. Robby Gordon was the dominant car before fuel mileage ultimately came to the fore. Juan Pablo Montoya enjoyed the best combination of pit strategy and strong car to win his first Cup win and Chip Ganassi’s first win since 2002. He also became the second driver since 1997 not named Stewart or Gordon to win at Sonoma.

3 drivers that like Sonoma

Tony Stewart It’s Go-Time for Smoke. He is one of the most accomplished road course drivers in Cup history with 6 wins, 8 top 5’s and 12 top 10’s in 18 races.

Jeff Gordon 5 wins, 9 top 5’s, 11 top 10’s and 5 poles in 15 starts. He’s also led 437 laps at Sonoma, the most of all active drivers.

Robby Gordon Won the 2003 race and has led 155 total laps at Sonoma. His finishes in recent years have been skewed by mechanical problems, but few are better at getting to the front on a road course.

1 driver that doesn’t like Sonoma

Matt Kenseth has never led a lap at Sonoma, never scored a top ten and has three finishes worse than 30th.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Juan Pablo Montoya Montoya is in the Sleeper category, but with a thin crop of “Champ” drivers it makes a lot of sense to choose a third Sleeper.

Chump: Jimmie Johnson Johnson only has one top five and two top tens in his Sonoma career. He’s capable of a top ten finish, but not someone to rely on.

Sleeper: Jamie McMurray With so many road racers in the mix, it’s easy to forget that the guys that race stock cars every week often have more success. McMurray is very solid on road courses.

Who Will Win

Juan Pablo Montoya is definitely capable of winning, but with the current state of Ganassi Racing they can’t seem to run well anywhere. I’m very curious to see AJ Allemendinger race. He failed to qualify for both road course races in 2007, but Red Bull Racing has improved a lot since then. Patrick Carpentier is another “fulltime ringer” that is ready to cut loose. There are plenty of other open wheel drivers and road course aces that would make good choices, but I’m going with someone who has driven the CoT every week: Kurt Busch. His season has been a mess so far, but Penske provides some of the best road course cars in the Cup series. Busch won both road course poles in 2006 and has 3 top 5’s at Sonoma.

Finally.

Dale Earnhardt Jr returned to Victory Lane in a Cup race. The last time Dale Earnhardt Jr won a Cup points race, Bill Clinton was in office. Or at least some people made it seem like it had been that long. The way Junior’s 2008 has gone, he could actually have multiple wins by now. He’s been a top five car nearly every week. It also doesn’t matter that he won on fuel mileage. They all count. The whole object of a race is to get to the front at the right time. Part of the reason the #88 team could gamble on fuel was their position in the standings. In prior seasons Earnhardt Jr has been near the bottom of the Chase standings and couldn’t afford a 25th place finish. With their 3rd place position it opens up more opportunities to take risks, which is exactly how they won on Sunday. Compare that with some of the other teams fighting for a Chase spot like Kevin Harvick, David Ragan and Jamie McMurray that were forced to pit under the final caution.

Not everyone is an Earnhardt Jr fan, but my guess is that the majority of NASCAR fans can appreciate Jr’s win and feel good about it. Put aside the fact that he’s the most popular driver in NASCAR, consider how hard it is to win Cup races. Now look at a few of the races where he’s come tantalizingly close to winning. He’s been wrecked while leading (Talladega 2006, Richmond 2008), had engine failures while running in the top 3 (Indianapolis, Richmond 2007), and been on the other side of the fuel mileage game (Charlotte 2007). It was a deserved, and popular, win.

• Tony Stewart is donating his winnings from Sunday’s race to the Red Cross and specifically the Indiana flood relief. Stewart spent most of the day in the top ten before coming home fifth. That’s a nice $136, 986 check for those in need.

  “I’m happy we got a top-five for everyone in Columbus, Indiana, and that we can do something to help our community out,” Stewart said. “It’s been on my mind all weekend. That’s what this top-five is for. When it’s your own community and your own neighbors, it’s good to generate a good amount of winnings for them.”

  The finish was also Stewart’s first top ten since a 4th place run at Richmond last month.

• I tried the Race Buddy, which is great. You can toggle between different camera views like Pit Road, In-Car, On Track Battles or four angles at once. It’s a poor man’s Hot Pass. The one downside, as my wife pointed out, is that there is no Bill Weber to complain about.

• Matt Kenseth continued his rebound with a 3rd place finish after leading 41 laps. It could have been better if not for his pit road incident with a track official. As Kenseth was leaving his pit, he had to brake when the official was still in front of his car for some reason. It cost him spots on the track that he never made up. Kenseth’s teammate Greg Biffle also had a costly pit road incident. The team was changing two tires but Biffle took off before the front tire changer could clear the car and was almost hit. Unfortunately the move also was a penalty because the air gun was left on the wrong side of the car. It was another top five run for Biffle, spoiled by a team mistake.

• Red Bull Racing’s intermediate program is really coming alive. Not only did Brian Vickers have one of the strongest cars in the race but AJ Allmendinger was also strong (79.7 driver rating) before getting shuffled back at the end. The team is still growing and needs improvement on the shorter tracks, but is one of the big stories of the last month. Now Allmendinger heads to Sonoma with a very good chance of scoring his first top ten finish.

• Kyle Petty noted how many races have come down to pit strategy with the new car. That’s true, but I think it has less to do with the car itself and more from the timing of the cautions. With track position at an even greater premium and crew chiefs unsure how even the best car will handle in traffic, getting to the front is now paramount.

• The win was Chevy’s first at Michigan since 2001.

• 18 different drivers have won Cup races since Earnhardt Jr’s last Cup win in 2006.

• The race lasted 2 hours 47 minutes. Last week’s race at Pocono last 4 hours.


For more racing news and opinion check out Racing Nation.

During Sunday’s race I had to paint a room in our house while listening to MRN and occasionally stealing time in front of the TV. With that context I can certifiably state that the Pocono race was more exciting than watching paint dry. Actually it was a lot more exciting. Whether it was the CoT, the new patch in turn 3, the hot and sticky weather, a great tire package from Goodyear or a combination, the racing was pretty good. Cars could make their way through traffic, but the leader didn’t necessarily check out in clean air.

Kasey Kahne was strong again winning his second Cup points race in three weeks and third Cup race (the All-Star exhibition race) in four. Kahne was obviously the best car on the track, but once again he got a little bit of help via other cars’ misfortune. Greg Biffle and Tony Stewart both suffered pit road speeding penalties on the final pit stop, ruining top five runs. Carl Edwards, who was content to lurk during the first 150 laps, got a flat tire on the final pit stop and watched his chance at the win vanish. Even the way Brian Vickers was able to hold off the faster Denny Hamlin in the final segment allowed Kahne to pull away without any serious challenges. Kahne had the best car and deserved to win, but it’s interesting all the different cars that could have challenged him but instead fell short for a variety of reasons.

• In the Top 35 Derby, Michael Waltrip fell outside the bubble giving way to Scott Riggs. Riggs had a very solid day, starting 9th then leading six laps on his way to a 21st place showing. It’s only one race, but that will make the #66 team’s week much easier not having to worry about qualifying for the next race without crew chief Bootie Barker. The Top 35 remains a tight scrum. Regan Smith is in 31st place but only leads 36th place Waltrip by 56 points. With Somoma and Daytona pending, the next month could really shuffle the top 35 battle.

• After Juan Pablo Montoya was collected by a wrecking Clint Bowyer, he was more concerned with how he was running prior to the crash. He only spent 17 laps in the top 15 and was clearly unhappy with Team Ganassi’s performance. When you see Montoya outperform his teammates and most other Dodge cars on a weekly basis, it’s pretty obvious Montoya is holding up his end of the bargain. It’s also clear that Ganassi, and to a smaller degree Dodge, is not providing strong enough equipment for Montoya.

• Red Bull Racing had their best race so far in their short NASCAR career. Brian Vickers led 18 laps and held off Denny Hamlin for second place. Teammate AJ Allmendinger qualified 8th, spent three fourths of the race inside the top 15 and came home 12th. It was Allmendinger’s best Cup finish and his 95.2 was by far his highest driver rating. Obviously the large horsepower from Toyota helps, but it takes more than a strong engine to threaten for wins and top tens. Allmendinger still endures his share of struggles, but he is also showing signs that he is getting comfortable in a stock car. Vickers explained the difference from last year:
  

  in this sport, it’s all about people. Jay Frye (general manager, Red Bull Racing Team) coming on board has been great leadership from the top. It always starts from the top down, but there’s been a lot of other people. Jay has been a large part of it, but I don’t want to give him all the credit. There’s a lot of people that have come on board and a lot of great people that are still there from last year

  Some people thought Vickers made a mistake to leave Hendrick two years ago, but that bold decision now looks like the right one. He is getting strong cars and is also proving his driving talent away from the spotlight of Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson. Vickers is a legitimate threat to win a race this year and could even compete for a spot in the Chase in 2009.

For more racing news and opinion check out Racing Nation

Kasey Kahne won the All-Star race thanks in part to the fans. He finished 5th in the Sprint Showdown, but made the feature event from the fans voting him. I’m sure some people will say he didn’t deserve to make the race, but so what? Involving the fans in an exhibition race is the whole point. All-Star games in every sport see players that don’t deserve to make it, but wind up in the starting lineup every year. Give Kahne credit for parlaying his spot into a giant check (the more I think about it, the more I want to win a physicaly giant check. Even if it’s for $5, I want a big check.).

Kahne’s win also highlights how the track changes from day to night. He didn’t run particularly well in the qualifying heat but was far better when the track was cooler. It’s hard to cull a lot of information from this weekend and apply it to the Coca Cola 600, but that is one point to remember. In a 400 lap race we will see cars struggle in the first 100-200 laps but then look a lot better in the second half of the race.

-Dale Earnhardt Jr made an interesting observation about that relating to the 600.

I’ll tell you one thing I was surprised about was how much my car changed from the start of the run to the end of the run in 25 laps. I would go from real tight to real, real loose and we’re going to have to run 60 laps in the 600 on gas and you will be hanging on for dear life. It should be a real tough, tough 600. Probably tougher than any other one any of us has ever ran.

Long green flag runs at intermediate tracks haven’t been kind to the CoT. Hopefully the Lowe’s test will help, but as Junior noted things could get dull this weekend.

• If Joe Gibbs Racing is going to have a race where they lose three engines during the weekend, it may as well be an exhibition race. Of course if you’re going to pick a weekend to experiment with engines, well this is the weekend for that too. According to Denny Hamlin, that’s exactly what they did.
  

  “This is definitely experimental ‘All-Star only’ racing. We came out here with our guns loaded and unfortunately our gun went off a little bit before the end of the race. It just wasn’t enough. We knew this engine wasn’t going to go 500 miles. It was built for just a few more laps past 100 and it just didn’t make it.”

• Thumbs up for AJ Allmendinger for winning the undercard race, the Spring Showdown. After really struggling to get his NASCAR career on track, he finally had a positive breakthrough.

  I feel like I won the Daytona 500. Nobody understands how much this means to me after what we went through as a team. It may be just an All-Star Showdown, but this means the world to me. These guys — everybody at Red Bull Racing Team and Toyota — they’ve stuck behind me.

  After Red Bull replaced Allmendinger with Mike Skinner for five races, it was reasonable to believe that Allmendinger may not get another chance in the #84. Obviously 40 good laps won’t mean much in a points paying race, but it is proof that he’s capable of running much better than he’s shown so far. He did score his career best finish last fall at Lowe’s (15th). The fact that he also accepted 100% of the blame for bumping Elliott Sadler into the wall also shows he’s learning the political side of NASCAR too.

• I’m all for new and creative ideas, but I don’t think the burnout contest is one of them. Maybe I’m in the minority, but there’s not much variety in burnouts. Obviously it’s different being at the race and watching, but for a televised event it’s pretty lame.

  It’s kind of like where the NBA dunk contest is now. All the good, creative dunks have already been done, so everything is pretty vanilla.

For more racing news, check out Racing Nation

Races at Richmond are awesome. They’re short (in both time and track size), at night, feature competitive action and often offer up good theater in the way of feuds. Need more reasons?

What happened last year

It rained. As a result the race was moved from Saturday night to Sunday afternoon and Jimmie Johnson exercised his Richmond demons to win the first of his season sweep at the track. Hendrick cars took three of the top four spots in the spring race. Of course the bigger news that week was Dale Earnhardt Jr putting in his seven month notice that he was leaving DEI. That set off an onslaught of speculation about where the high-profile driver would wind up after the season. Sound familiar?

Quick Notes

• Tony Stewart has 12 top 10 finishes in 18 career Richmond starts. He also has three wins, although none since 2002.

• Until last year Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon both struggled at Richmond. Then Johnson won both races and Gordon scored two fourths. Gordon had not finished better than 31st in his previous four tries and Johnson had only one other finish (2nd in 2004) inside the top 10.

• Casey Mears is the only current Cup driver with more than four starts without a top ten at Richmond. Mears has ten starts with a best finish of eleventh in 2006.

• The first Richmond race was held in 1953 won by Lee Petty. 27 cars started the 200 lap event. The race was run on dirt until 1968.

• Richard Petty has the most victories with 13. AJ Allmendinger is tied for fewest with zero.

• Tim Richmond won the 1986 race at Richmond. (Note: I failed to mention last week that no driver named Talladega has ever won a race at that track.)

• Carl Edwards gets his crew chief Bob Osborne back this week after a six race suspension. Edwards was fast at Phoenix before a pit road problem. He was also fast at last fall’s Richmond race before he blew the engine.

Four to watch

• Kyle Busch He has five top fives in six Cup starts at Richmond. He had the dominant car in the fall 2006 race before Kevin Harvick pipped him with two laps left.

• Denny Hamlin: It could be a wheelbarrow race in Blacksburg, but as long as it featured Denny Hamlin in the state of Virginia, he’d be a threat to win.

• Kevin Harvick: Just like Hamlin takes to any race in the Old Dominion state Harvick thrives on the flat tracks. It could be a speedskating race in Vermont…you get the picture. Owns the best driver rating over the last six races at 121.2 and owns one win.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr Apparently Junior hasn’t won a Cup race in a while. He has won the last three spring races falling in even years. That stat means nothing in regards to Saturday night. His 3 wins, 7 top 5’s and 9 top 10’s does, though.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

A weekly glimpse at my picks from the Fantasy NASCAR game. If you haven’t signed up yet, a new segment is starting soon (like four races soon) which means you have a clean slate.

• Champ: Kurt Busch Busch won the 2005 fall race and also owns the fifth best driver rating (100.4) over the last six races.

• Chump: Clint Boywer So far this year Bowyer has been a compiler instead of a front runner. He can’t keep that up forever without experiencing some bad luck.

• Sleeper: Elliott Sadler No one really strikes me as a great choice among the sleepers this week. Sadler has the skill, experience, and just maybe the car (ran very well at Phoenix) to land in the top 15. Be sure and check out all of the Sleeper Analysis at One Bad Wheel

Who Will Win?

So far this season Kasey Kahne has been solid nearly every week. Richmond is the site of his first win and even in his worst years, he has run well at Richmond. It’s something about Richmond and drivers with open-wheel backgrounds like Kahne, Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman.

Yeehaw! Almost two full weeks without a Sprint Cup race it’s time for an overdue roundup of some news items. Get along all you dogies. By the way, you know you were about to ask, a dogie is a motherless calf in a range herd of cattle. So there’s that. Let’s move on to the news of the past few weeks.

• Nationwide might have the official naming rights to NASCAR’s second series, but Shrub is doing his best to maintain the Busch Series label. Thanks to the nice people on the Nationwide PR side, here is a post-race interview after Kyle Busch’s win at Mexico City:
  

  It was a good run for us. We had a great race out there. You know, some pit strategy played into it somewhat there towards the middle and towards the end of the race in what was going to happen.

  Obviously, being able to win my first race on a road course is pretty special anytime. It’s fun to be able to win to be able to win on a road course, because there’s only certain guys that tend to be able to do it. Finally, to be able to get a win on a road course means a lot. It shows I’m capable of winning anywhere, I guess, so that’s pretty cool.

  From an upstart blogger’s perspective, Nationwide is doing a lot of cool grassroots things to promote the Nationwide Series. And the first thing you say is, “Sure, that’s easy for you to say when they send you stuff to put on your blog.” And I say, exactly. If they are reaching out to bloggers and recognizing that we have a place of some importance, then that is a good thing. It has very little to do with me personally.

• After a six race “break”, AJ Allemndinger is back in the #84 Red Bull car this week. Substitute driver Mike Skinner made the last six races and edged the car within 108 points of the top 35. Now it’s up to Allmendinger to build on that baseline. He will do so in a new silver paintscheme. From the Red Bull blog:
  

  “Some would call it a mirrored aluminum silver. Some would call it a titanium finish,” said Marty Briggs, the paint shop manager. “We would just have to call it bad ass.”

• The biggest news this week is the speculation about Tony Stewart’s future. Will he stay with Joe Gibbs Racing and Toyota? Will he return to one of he Chevrolet teams? Will he retire and open a Subway shop in Richmond, Indiana and hang out with Jared Fogel? Perhaps he’s in talks with Daniel Snyder about coaching the Redskins?

  No one knows the exact answer right now, but in the end the winner is definitely Stewart. Just like Dale Earnhardt Jr couldn’t go wrong last year, Stewart can take whatever path he wants. Ownership is apparently the hot item in Stewart’s search, but I’m not sure that makes complete sense. The cost of ownership in Cup continues to rise while sponsorship, and other revenue streams are stagnating and in some cases drying up. Stewart already owns a racetrack, Eldora, that he says he doesn’t make a profit on. Would he really want to take on another pet project? Especially a seven to eight figure one that is not a certain money-maker? If ownership exits the equation, then RCR makes more sense as a destination. As usual I have no inside information, just a guess. It will be interesting to see if Stewart remains winless for a while whether the media pressure intensifies(groan). Stay tuned.

• Earth Day was earlier this week and SI.com’s Brant James had an excellent piece on motorsports and various series’ efforts to go green. It’s a really good read with several good points. Some of the major points didn’t apply strictly to environmental issues either. For example NASCAR’s lack of modern technology in engines isn’t only inefficient fuel-wise, it’s expensive too:
  

  In spending hundreds of millions to improve 1955 engine technology, NASCAR is basically using a jet propulsion laboratory to make a better arrowhead.

  That quote could apply not only to engine research but all of the efforts in the hope of a miniscule gain on the track with today’s cars.

  James goes on to point out that while NASCAR isn’t as progressive as other racing series, advances could happen down the road:
  

  “Years ago we tried to get to 500 horsepower and we thought that would be it,” he[Gary Nelson, former head of NASCAR’s research and development center] said, “Now that engine gets 800. You can never look down the road and say, ‘That’s as good as you’re going to get.’ … If people are working on it, it will get better, and people are working on it.”

  Again, that quote could be applied to the other aspects of the current car. Right now people are saying the Car of Tomorrow is a failure, but when smart people set out and try to improve it, things will improve.

• Finally, if you haven’t already entered the Daytona DVD contest, sign up. Why wouldn’t you want a 50 years of the Daytona 500 DVD?

Go fast or go home. It’s a phrase no team wants mentioned in conjunction with their cars. With only one race to go before 2008 owner points take effect, the top 35 picture is taking shape. For new teams inside the top 35 it means a guaranteed starting spot. Likewise, the teams that have not cracked the top 35 in 2008 owner points will have to qualify on speed for one of the final eight transfer spots. Once the top 35 gets set after Bristol, the chances of entering or exiting that safe haven decrease each week. That places immense pressure on this week’s race for teams that need to either hang on or move up. Holding the crucial fifth race at the potentially volatile Bristol track makes it even more tense. You can be sure nine or ten teams will be packing extra heartburn medicine this weekend.

Two teams have already locked themselves in for race six at Martinsville. Kurt Busch and Brian Vickers could fail to qualify for Bristol(Busch has a provisional anyway) and still have enough points to stay in the top 35. For other drivers it is less fun. Only 86 points separate 31st through 39th. It sounds like a lot, but making a race guarantees 34 points. If a car currently inside the top 35 like Michael Waltrip misses the race, that opens the door for another outside the top 35.

Right now JJ Yeley sits in the final spot in the top 35 safety zone. He is only 18 points ahead of 36th place Sam Hornish Jr, which is the difference of six places, less with five bonus points for leading a lap. 5 teams that will make the Bristol race due to their 2007 owners points are currently outside the top 35 based on 2008 owners points. The #01, #22, #40, #45, #77 all face the possibility of squandering their early season fortune.

All four rookies currently sit outside the top 35. Sam Hornish Jr, Dario Franchitti, Regan Smith and Patrick Carpentier sit in 36th, 38th, 39th and 46th respectively. Smith is the only driver that has previously raced at Bristol and that could provide an advantage. The tight confines of Bristol pose a much different challenge and smaller margin for error than the wider and bigger speedways the tour raced at the last three weeks.

It’s also interesting that the open wheelers are all struggling mightily. Hornish Jr had a top 15 at Daytona but then wrecked in his next two starts. Franchitti hasn’t wrecked, but simply run at the tail of the field every week. Patrick Carpentier and AJ Allmendinger haven’t qualified for races and sinking their chances before they even had a chance to crash on Sundays. All of this makes Juan Pablo Montoya’s debut even more impressive. At the same point last year Montoya was safely inside the top 35 and scored a top five at Atlanta.

The rookie struggles means, strange as it sounds, that a driver with zero Cup starts could wind up as Rookie of the Year. The #00 has a nice points cushion thanks to David Reutimann making every race so far. After Martinsville, Reutimann will shift to the #44 (also inside the top 35) and rookie Michael McDowell will take the wheel of the #00. He won’t set the world on fire, but he could be the only rookie with a guaranteed starting spot each week.

Rookies, open-wheelers, and open-wheel rookies aren’t the only teams that will need a second coat of Old Spice this weekend. Michael Waltrip Racing currently has all three cars locked inside the top 35, although the #44 and #55 are toeing the edge of the cliff. After a nightmare 2007 debut, Waltrip has rebounded but there is still one more race for each car to make.

Further up in the points are two drivers from marquee teams. Casey Mears in 30th place and Jamie McMurray in 31st are each one bad Bristol crash from plunging into serious danger. Both are top 20 drivers in top 10 equipment, but can’t seem to garner their deserved finishes. It’s one thing to struggle, but another thing entirely to flirt with the top 35.

On the other end of the spectrum is Kyle Petty. He has made every race, but he sits 40th in the points and needs a lot of help or a spectacular run at Bristol to keep his guaranteed starting spot. His teammate Bobby Labonte has been very competitive each week, but Petty has not finished better than 32nd. His 28.5 driver rating exemplifies the team’s struggles. For Petty Enterprises this year it’s one step forward (#43 car) and one backward.

All in all, the bottom 35 is filled with interesting stories. What happens at Bristol will have consequences for the concerned parties for the rest of the year.

Last Week’s Caption Contest Winner

Thanks to everyone that submitted captions. The winner is John. He wins a $20 gift certificate to use at Whatever Sports.