Trouble in Turn2

[Note: Blogging is a great thing. It allows for freedom and flexibility. These things only apply with the help of a computer, which in my case went AWOL Sunday night. My apologies.]

All right people, move along. Kyle Busch won another Cup race. Nothing to see here.

After Dale Earnhardt Jr passed Busch on the second lap of the race it looked like Busch would be relegated to a middling finish. Instead Busch got off sequence with most of the leaders, pitted earlier and suddenly grabbed the lead and his sequence won out. Given the fact that Busch was joined by his Gibbs Racing teammates, Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin, on the early pit stop makes you wonder if it was all planned to sandbag the first 15-20 laps.

While some are noting that Busch is closing in on the #1 seed in the Chase, he has already clinched it. Carl Edwards could match his 8 wins, but because of the penalty at Las Vegas he can’t match Busch’s 80 bonus points. The other thing to take away from Watkins Glen is that aside from Busch’s 10 bonus points, the race has zero bearing on what will transpire during the Chase. There are no road races during the Chase, so teams can’t really apply anything they learned on Sunday. Plus the concept of momentum is as effective as the rabbit’s foot on Bobby Labonte’s keychain (seriously, I can’t name a driver that gets caught up in more bad wrecks than Labonte).

While the race won’t have a bearing on the Chase, it did highlight how off Jeff Gordon and Steve Letarte have been at times this year. They’ve struggled at other tracks this year, most notably at certain intermediate speedways, but Gordon is one of the elite road course racers. To struggle at Watkins Glen, especially when teammates Dale Earnhardt Jr and Jimmie Johnson ran well, was shocking. While Letarte won’t have to set up another road car, the fact that they missed a fundamental chance for a good day is noteworthy in the Chase.

Alan Tays of the Palm Beach Post wrote something about Momentum. He must not be a very good writer to agree with me and think that Kasey Kahne and the #9 team worked hard for their wins. After all, it’s a proven fact that Kasey Kahne won three races because the fans love him and bestowed confidence upon him.

Enjoy the weekend and give a big bearhug to your father.

Elevators and Imitators

Eleven races into the season is almost one third of the way home. Some teams are exceeding expectations while others are underachieving. That’s obvious enough. While the points show one picture, the driver ratings can reveal some differences. A driver with a high driver rating shows

Carl Edwards is 4th in driver rating but sits in 7th place in the standings. Obviously without the 100 point penalty Edwards would be 4th in points. Jeff Gordon is 10th in points but owns the 7th best driver rating. A mechanical failure at Daytona and a nasty crash at Las Vegas erased otherwise strong runs at these tracks. It highlights how damaging engine failures and bad finishes can be to a driver’s points. Outperforming your points total is a good sign for the rest of the summer. I fully expect both Edwards and Gordon to climb higher in the standings and score more top 5’s.

Jeff Burton is second in the points but 8th in driver rating. It’s pretty clear that Burton’s great start is due more to compiling points and avoiding trouble than it is having fast, dominant cars. Avoiding trouble is obviously a testament to Burton’s skill, but it’s harder to sustain than simply running in the top five every week. Every driver will lose an engine, get caught up in a wreck or get a flat tire at the wrong time. Making your own luck by having top five cars every week is a lot more reliable than trying to outlast everyone and sneaking into the top ten or top five.

Elevators: Drivers with the biggest positive differences between points and driver rating
Casey Mears +6
Elliott Sadler +5
Dave Blaney +5
Matt Kenseth +4

Imitators: Drivers with the biggest negative differences between points and driver rating
David Gilliland -7
Clint Bowyer -6
Jeff Burton -6
Bobby Labonte -5
Travis Kvapil -4

The numbers give a decent snapshot of who is running well compared to finishing well. Maybe over or underachieving is the wrong word. Drivers deserve credit for passing as many cars as they can, with whatever method they can. The only point of these numbers is to get a glimpse of which drivers are capable of a strong summer or who might be ripe for a tumble.

Things can obviously change. The CoT is far from perfected, so there is a great opportunity for teams to find new advantages. Burton and RCR could suddenly find something in a test that pushes their cars closer to the front. Or maybe, in the copycat world of NASCAR, everyone might simply catch up to Gibbs and Roush and even the playing field. Younger drivers will likely gain more confidence and experience which could lead to better results. An older driver might get a new crew chief that rejuvenates a team. A team that suffers from bad luck suddenly feels the need to change personnel, resulting in even worse performances. There are tons of variables that could change the numbers.

So who do you think could climb the ladder or go down the chute this summer?

It’s been a rough week for the most storied team in NASCAR. The #45 car and Kyle Petty have struggled in almost every aspect this year. They don’t have a finish better than 28th through five races, pushing the car beyond the safety of the top 35. Then last week Petty failed to qualify for the race at Martinsville. This week Petty decided to take one for the team and step out of the #45. Chad McCumbee subbed for Petty twice last year. The difference this time is that McCumbee must make the race on speed. At least he only has to be faster than three cars.

Not only is one of Petty Enterprises cars in big trouble, but the other car will lose its primary sponsor, Betty Crocker, at the end of the season. The math seems to also add up that Bobby Labonte would join Childress, but since only one writer, Bob Margolis has the story, I’ll wait until someone else confirms it.

Labonte released a statement today pleading for people to avoid speculation:

“I’m very humbled by the level of interest in my future, but at this time I’m concentrating all my efforts in getting Petty Enterprises back to victory lane. I feel good about all the positive steps that Petty Enterprises has made and continues to make.

“General Mills has been a huge part of making the 43 team what it is today. I worked diligently with Petty Enterprises to continue General Mills involvement with the team. Today, we all learned they have made a decision. I truly appreciate all they have done to contribute to our success at Petty Enterprises.

“Moving forward, I’m going to work hard each week to win races. I want to do the best I can for Petty Enterprises and everyone who puts great cars under me each week. That’s our focus, and that’s what I feel is the right thing to do for all our partners. At this time, I have no intention to talk about my plans after 2008 because of the immediate tasks at hand. I respectively ask for everyone’s patience in this matter and, again, am humbled by everyone’s interest. ”

It not quite a ringing endorsement for staying in the #43 in 2009, but Labonte can’t really do much else except quell the rumors.

For Petty Enterprises the combined developments are a huge blow. Betty Crocker has been with PE since 2000 although the relationship has only produced 4 top fives and 18 top tens in that span. Having a car slip out of the top 35 also does little to woo sponsorship dollars.

The one hint of good news for Petty was a potential investor is close to signing on. The team needs an infusion of capital. The team needs to find a replacement sponsor for the #43 and solidify the shaky #45 sponsorship as well. I don’t think Petty will close up shop soon, and they are pointed in the right direction with their recent moves. The trick will be not only keeping their current status in NASCAR, but finding a way to advance. It’s going to be a rough season, but if they can weather it, secure sponsorship or investment some of their decisions like leasing Evernham engines, moving their shops to the Charlotte area and their personnel hirings could pay off. For a company that means so much to NASCAR’s history and their off track image, it’s hard not to hope it works out.

Links and Notes

• Doug Demmons explains what it feels to take a drive at Talladega. At 170 mph.
• Dustin Long writes about Red Bull Racing’s full time pit crew team. A few interesting notes from the article. They are the only full-time crew in NASCAR. The cost is about $1 million. One of the big fears when Toyota joined NASCAR was that they could outspend other manufacturers and teams. Maybe this is one of the first signs of that free spending. As if teams needed another area to spend money on.
• If you need some last minute help choosing your fantasy team, maybe this can be of assistance.
• Dale Jr’s Adidas clothing line is now on sale at select Texas retail locations:
  

  After making its debut in Daytona at the start of the NASCAR season, Dale Earnhardt, Jr.’s adidas JR Nation Gear has invaded the Lone Star state! Consumers can pick up the latest adidas Dale Jr. gear including men’s and women’s t-shirts, jackets, hats and jerseys, at any of the six Sports Authority locations in the Fort Worth area (addresses below). In addition, fans can check out Dale Jr.’s #88 AMP show car, which will be visiting Sports Authority stores across Dallas and Fort Worth starting April 1 and culminating on April 5 (dates, times and locations below).

  Designed and developed with the help of Dale Jr., JR Nation Gear features the same adidas ClimaCool technology that allows Dale Jr. to stay cool on the track. adidas ClimaCool technology is a ventilation system that utilizes specially engineered air channels, materials and components to provide superior moisture management, enhanced evaporation and better breathability. Throughout the season, new products, including footwear, accessories and other exclusive gear, will debut in conjunction with special events like All-Star in Charlotte this May.

  Locations, dates and times of Dale Jr.’s #88 AMP show car appearances include:

  April 1, 4-7pm
  Hulen Store
  4830 S. W. Loop 820-Overton Park
  Fort Worth, TX 76109

  April 4, 10am-1pm
  Stonebriar Store
  2930 Preston Road, Ste 200B
  Frisco, TX 75034

  April 2, 4-7pm
  Cedar Hills Store
  727 North Highway 67
  Cedar Hill, TX 75104-2142

  April 4, 4-7pm
  Denton Store
  1800 South Loop 288, Ste 240
  Denton, TX 76205

  April 3, 4-7pm
  Irving Store
  3524 Airport Freeway West
  Irving, TX 75062

  April 5, 10am–1 pm
  Watauga Store
  7612 Denton Highway,Ste 404
  Watauga, TX 76148

  What are you waiting for? Go get it!

Have a good weekend and enjoy the race.

[Trouble in Turn2 Exclusive] The King is back. Seven time NASCAR Cup champion Richard Petty will replace son Kyle in the #45 car for the upcoming Sprint Cup race at Martinsville. With the younger Petty losing his guaranteed spot inside the top 35, the team will utilize NASCAR’s past champion provisional to make the next six races.

”We thought about moving Bobby [Labonte] to the #45, but that would create more complications, and the public opinion on swapping owner’s points was very negative, so we did the next best thing,” said Petty Enterprises GM Robbie Loomis, “Besides. Imagine the revenue we’ll get from the diecasts.”

Initial concerns about the 70 year old Petty’s safety were immediately dissipated. “Because Richard is a former champion, we will have him in the car for qualifying and then Kyle will take the wheel for practices and the actual race. Richard will make one lap at qualifying speed and the rest is taken care of by NASCAR’s muddied rule book. We’ll start 43rd, but that’s where Kyle typically runs anyways.”

That muddied rule book awards one guaranteed spot to the most recent champion not already qualified for the race. Loomis had no comment when reminded that a more recent champion, Bill Elliott is also entered at Martinsville.

In related news, DEI is applying for a posthumous past champion’s provisional to be transferred from the late Dale Earnhardt Sr to his wife Teresa. This would allow her to pilot the #01 normally driven by Regan Smith.

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If you made a list of sentimental picks to win a race or have a successful season Bobby Labonte and the #43 car would probably each make the list. Since Labonte drives the #43 makes it an even easier call. It seems like everyone roots for good things from the historic Petty operation. Since joining the team in 2006, Labonte has driven the #43 car to heights not seen in years. The next step is a win. Is it possible in 2008?

If 2006 was a return to respectability for the #43, 2007 was about maintaining that progress. Labonte gained three points positions to finish 18th. It was his best finish since 2004, and Petty Enterprises best finish since 1999 when John Andretti finished 17th. In 2006 Labonte had 8 DNF’s including 4 for engine failures. The DNF number dropped to 3 in 2007 with zero engine-related DNF’s. Both figures are significant signs of progress for Petty Enterprises.

Labonte was again solid on short tracks and had several good runs. He also took to the CoT pretty well. His average CoT finish was 21.8. While his top 5’s and top 10’s declined from 2006, he managed to run more laps and finish more races. Labonte also scored one of the more popular Busch wins in 2007 with a slingshot pass of teammate Tony Stewart to win at Talladega. The move was indicative of his plate racing prowess. It’s also seen on the Cup side, although it’s not always seen in the results. That’s the nature of plate racing, though.

The biggest problem for the Petty cars is that they simply can’t run up front on a consistent basis. Labonte is still a capable driver, but without the tools and information that the larger teams have, his success is limited. Moving their shop closer to Charlotte, the capital of NASCAR, will help. Their talent pool for crew and shop members increases immensely. The dividends will show up, but probably not immediately in 2008.

The #43 team is beginning to have a Hendrick flavor. GM Robbie Loomis, former crew chief for Jeff Gordon, recruited former crewmate Jeff Meendering from Hendrick Motorsports to head up the #43 team. Meendering was the car chief for the #24 team. So once again Labonte begins the season with another new crew chief, his 5th in less than three years with PE. He has had relative success with each of the crew chiefs in his time at Petty, but rarely right off the bat. It has typically taken a few months for Labonte’s team to gel and that transition period has to be expected again. If Labonte and company aren’t ready to run for top 10’s right away, any Chase visions will evaporate.

Despite some disadvantages in the equipment, Labonte is still capable of running near the front at places like Bristol, Martinsville, Atlanta, Texas and Phoenix. Given how much he has accomplished at the Cup level, it’s sometimes easy to forget that he’s only 43. A top 20 points finish might be tougher to attain this year, but 5-6 top tens with 1 or 2 top five finishes is probably realistic. Can Labonte win a race for Petty? The competition for wins and top 5’s will be fierce. A lot of things will have to fall into place for Labonte and Meendering to visit Victory Lane. It’s not impossible at a place like Martinsville, but realistically it’s out of reach this year. The short answer is no, but with all of the moves PE is making, the answer could turn into a yes sooner than later.