Trouble in Turn2

The last seven seasons have seen the advent of a youth movement in NASCAR at the Cup level. Young Guns have taken over in large numbers and many have quickly found success. Since 2000 a rookie has won a race in every season except 2004. Going back to 2002 the recent rookie classes have been pretty impressive. 12 of 19 drivers have won races, nine have made a Chase appearance and one has won two championships. Not bad for a wave of drivers that some fans complained were ruining the sport (Toyota and open wheel drivers have since acquired that “honor”). So which rookie class featured the best rookies? It’s a tough decision. I decided to look at the various classes from 2002-2006. I didn’t rate the 2007 class because drivers deserve at least three seasons for a fair assessment. The only reason I included the 2006 class was because it included so many drivers with immediate success it was an exceptional case. This week focuses on the 2003 class. Check out previous reviews: 2002, 2003.

The 2004 Class (Kasey Kahne, Brian Vickers, Scott Riggs, Scott Wimmer, Johnny Sauter, Brendan Gaughan, Carl Edwards)

Kasey Kahne took the Cup world by storm in 2004 when he finished 2nd in two of the first three races, narrowly losing to Matt Kenseth at Rockingham and Las Vegas. While he couldn’t find victory lane as a rookie, he did finish 2nd 5 times. His good looks also didn’t hurt for attracting fans and sponsors. He easily won rookie of the year and almost made the Chase, eventually settling for 13th place in the standings. He finished the season with 13 top 5’s, 14 top 10’s and 4 poles.

Amid raised expectations 2005 was a struggle. He won his first Cup race at Richmond, but had an overall disappointing sophomore season. The big breakthrough finally came in 2006 when he won 6 races, all at intermediate tracks, and made the Chase. While he still has some inconsistency issues, Kahne is one of the top drivers at intermediate tracks and can also excel at short tracks. He has proven his speedway prowess again this year with two more wins so far.

Kahne was the runaway surprise of the 2004 rookie class. That instant success was initially pegged for another driver. Brian Vickers won the 2003 Busch Championship and at the time was expected to easily adjust to the Cup level with Hendrick Motorsports. Of course people forgot that Vickers was only 20. While teammates Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon were fighting for titles, Vickers struggled like almost any 20 year old would. Looking back it should have been expected, especially given the tough circumstances at the end of 2004. The Hendrick team was struck by tragedy which included the loss of Vickers’ close friend Ricky Hendrick. Despite his struggles he still managed 4 top tens and two poles as a rookie.

2005 and 2006 saw improvement and several times looked capable of winning. Vickers did finally win in the fall Talladega race, but at the expense of wrecking his teammate, Jimmie Johnson, and Dale Earnhardt Jr, which hardly cultivated fans for Vickers. After the 2006 season he sought a fresh start with the brand new Toyota Red Bull team. Like every Toyota team in 2007, Vickers struggled to make races and finished 38th in points. This year he has elevated his game and is again on the verge of winning races. Maybe it’s because he’s in his fifth Cup season, but it’s easy to forget that he is only 24. While it wasn’t a straight ascent to the top as expected Vickers is finally realizing his potential.

Brendan Gaughan scored what appeared to be a top ride for a rookie when Penske Racing South signed him to drive for the 2004 season. Coming off a six win Truck season in 2003, he appeared ready for the next level. Like most normal rookies, he struggled to finish races and only scored four top tens all season. He was let go after the season to make way for another rookie, Travis Kvapil. Gaughan returned to the Truck Series where he still drives for his family’s team. He made one substitute appearance for Haas-CNC in 2005, wrecked Kyle Petty, and has not resurfaced on the Cup level since. While Gaughan was far from brilliant in his rookie season, Kvapil did not fare any better in the same car the next year. Maybe he would have improved with more time, but it looks like Gaughan’s one chance at the Cup level is all he will get.

It took Scott Riggs a few years to gain traction at the Cup level he improved in each of his first three seasons. After a move from MB/2 Motorsports to Evernham in 2006 Riggs posted 1 top 5, 8 top 10’s and won two poles and finished 20th in the points. Unfortunately Riggs saw everything around him unravel in 2007 as the organization made some major engineering mistakes and Riggs fell outside the top 35. While Riggs is a steady driver and capable of piloting a fast car, he seems destined to be a career journeyman. 2009 will mark his fourth team in six Cup seasons.

Scott Wimmer nearly pulled off one of the biggest shocks of 2004 right off the bat. He gambled on pit strategy at the Daytona 500 and suddenly found himself in the lead with 29 laps to go. He eventually lost the lead but held on for an impressive 3rd place finish. Unfortunately it is Wimmer’s only top 5 to date at the Cup level. After two unremarkable years with Bill Davis Racing and one forgettable year with the struggling Morgan-McClure team Wimmer returned to the Nationwide Series where he runs a part time schedule and tests for RCR. He won the Nationwide race at Nashville earlier this year. His connection with RCR will likely continue to land him occasional Cup starts.

Based on his solid results in the lower ranks and the Busch Series, Johnny Sauter was given a chance on the Cup side with Richard Childress Racing. He began the season in the #30 AOL car and like every other rookie excluding Kahne, Sauter struggled. After failing to score a top ten in his first 13 races he was released in favor of veteran Dave Blaney. He has since landed rides with Phoenix Racing and Haas Racing with limited success. Sauter has three career top tens at the Cup level including a best of 5th.

Ironically, Sauter’s early exit eventually led to RCR hiring Jeff Burton to drive the car in midseason. Burton’s exit from Roush paved the way for a young driver to take NASCAR by surprise. Carl Edwards jumped into the #99 car at the August Michigan race and scored a top ten. While the rest of the season was not as smooth, he did have 5top tens in only 13 races.

Originally pegged to one day replace Mark Martin, Edwards had carved out his own identity with the #99 car. He won his first Cup race in style, passing Jimmie Johnson on the final turn at Atlanta. He then pulled off his signature backflip for the first time in a Cup race. He won four races and made the Chase field. With a late surge he nearly won the Chase but finished tied for second with teammate Greg Biffle.

Edwards struggled to repeat his charmed 2005 and went winless in 2006 and missed the Chase. He rebounded in 2007 with three wins and a spot in the Chase. He also has three wins through 19 races in 2008 and is in good shape to make his third Chase in four full seasons.

Verdict: The 2004 class had seven drivers which increases the odds that at least one driver will succeed, but three out of seven drivers are Cup winners and top 20 drivers. The rest makeup the underappreciated NASCAR workforce. The class gets a big boost from Edwards’ inclusion. Edwards and Kahne are bona fide stars at the Cup level, while Vickers is a very solid driver that is still improving. Scott Riggs and Johnny Sauter are both capable drivers that probably will remain Cup journeymen with the occasional highlights. Scott Wimmer has found success with RCR’s Nationwide team and will probably get another chance at the Cup level. Gaughan will likely remain a footnote for the rookie class.

It’s Indy time for the Cup guys. That means speeds over 200 mph, a huge purse (last year was over $8 million) and tight racing. With not a lot of room to pass in the corners, horsepower on the straightaways is a driver’s best friend. Dale Earnhardt Jr participated in the recent Goodyear tire test and he also quelled concern about tires.

Tire wear was a big issue. When we first started out, you recall last year and in years past, when we first get there, we go to the cords in about five laps. It takes the whole weekend to build the rubber up on the track before that goes away. We did that again, and we found a tire that will work with another tire that lasted quite a bit longer and ran just as quick.

Because Indianapolis is such a large track, tires can wear out quickly. It’s compounded by the fact that the Trucks and Nationwide cars don’t see the track. That also minimizes the amount of rubber buildup. The fact that Earnhardt is happy with the durability and quality of the tire is a good thing for the level of racing and safety.

What Happened Last Year

Dale Earnhardt Jr dominated the early stages of the race but blew an engine. It was one of three engine failures in the final seven races before the Chase, completely souring his chances to make the Chase or win a race. Tony Stewart took advantage and went on to cruise to an easy win. The win also produced two of the more memorable quotes from Stewart. While closing in on Kevin Harvick, Stewart casually uttered “Here kitty kitty” over the team radio. Then after his win he swore in Victory Lane on live TV. In a post Janet Jackson-FCC crackdown society, Stewart was fined. It didn’t help that it was ESPN’s first broadcast of their new television deal.

Notes

• In the short history at the Brickyard Jeff Gordon owns almost all of the records. 4 wins, 11 top 10’s, 433 laps led, and three poles are all tops.

• In 9 Indy starts Dave Blaney has never led a lap. Every driver with more than 4 starts has led at least one lap.

• Chevy has won the last five races and nine of 14 overall at Indianapolis. Dodge and Pontiac have one win each while Ford has three, although none since 1999. Toyota is tied with Oldsmobile and Scion at zero.

• James at One Bad Wheel has an interesting article on the history of victory lane celebrations. Todd Parrott is credited with starting the brick kissing tradition in 1996. It’s interesting to see how different traditions start and what makes one action stick while others are considered lame? Kissing bricks, climbing fences and drinking milk. They all make perfect sense. In a way it’s like nicknaming yourself. You can’t try too hard and make it intentional or it looks desperate. His article also reminded me of the time in 2005 when Kurt Busch won the fall Richmond race and kissed the asphalt. No one has done it since, thankfully.

• Bill Elliott will attempt to make his 15th Brickyard race. While he is no longer a threat to win races, Elliott can still get it done at select tracks. He has never finished worse than 23rd at Indy and has 5 top 5’s and 9 top 10’s in his career. That includes his 2002 win where he led 93 laps.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: David Ragan Ragan is becoming a serious threat on intermediate tracks. Last year he relied on attrition to score a decent finish. This year he is running in the top 10 and top 15 for the bulk of races.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Chump: Carl Edwards Sure Edwards can win at any track, but so far in his career Indy hasn’t agreed with him. A ninth place finish in 2006 is sandwiched by two mediocre finishes (12th, 18th) with bad driver ratings (69.6 and 67.1).

Sleeper: Mark Martin Martin stayed in the top 5 almost all day at Pocono and has already said he can win at Indy. He is not one to exaggerate.

Who Will Get to 1st Base with the Bricks?

Tony Stewart will surely be a popular choice along with his teammates Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. Kasey Kahne has been very good on speedways this summer and Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr could also show up in strength. Kevin Harvick is also one to watch (no matter what loser bloggers might say about his season, he comes good at Indy). Maybe I’m bored of picking the same four or five drivers each week, but I’m going deeper for my pick this week. Over the last two months
Brian Vickers has quietly ran with the leaders on a weekly basis. His driver rating over the last 8 races is a very neat 92.2. He was the fastest car at Michigan and one of the fastest at Lowe’s, Dover and Pocono. He is ready to win and it will be surprising if he doesn’t have a win by the time the Chase rolls around. Win number one for Red Bull Racing might come this weekend.

Someone is about to go for a parachute ride. Based on recent history, it’s inevitable that one and maybe two teams sitting on the good side of the points will tumble between now and September. Since the Chase was created in 2004, at least one driver each season has lost altitude and fallen from a Chase position. With only seven races before the Dirty Dozen are chosen for NASCAR’s playoffs, the pack is tight for the final few spots. In recent years drivers like Bobby Labonte, Kevin Harvick, Dale Jarrett, Elliott Sadler, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Greg Biffle have all seen the bottom fall out. A season filled with the hope of a late season run at a championship suddenly squashed by late season problems.

Of course, for every driver that experiences a late summer slide there is another driver ready to swoop for their Chase spot. Just ask Jeremy Mayfield, Mark Martin, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin or Kurt Busch how that feels. One of the keys to making the Chase was winning. Four of these six drivers were propelled to the Chase on the strength of a win. Mayfield’s was the most dramatic. He won the Richmond race to crack the Chase field on the final night. While all wins aren’t as dramatic as Mayfield’s, they all count equally.

This year will again feature some nail biting for some teams as the races count down. 199 points separate 6th place Jeff Gordon from 15th place David Ragan. Ragan is also only 98 points from 12th place Denny Hamlin. A lot can, and will, happen in the next seven races.

Aside from obviously winning a race or scoring six or seven top tens, the biggest key is to avoid awful finishes. Last year Dale Earnhardt Jr had three top fives in the seven races prior to the Chase. Unfortunately he also had three engine failures that resulted in three 30+ finishes. It also didn’t help that his nearest competitor Kurt Busch won two races in the same span.

While some things like engine failures are out of a driver’s control, driver’s still must do everything they can in these seven races to minimize bad finishes. Allowing a rival to pass is worth losing 3-5 points instead of wrecking and losing 50 or more. Maximizing finishes is especially true when looking at the schedule, which is pretty diverse over the next month and a half. Two things that a driver and team must have are a good speedway car and patience. Speedways like Indianapolis, Pocono, Michigan and California are alternated with tricky short tracks like Bristol and Richmond plus the Watkins Glen road course. If a driver doesn’t fare well on road courses or a short track, they must avoid overdriving and making a costly mistake. If their car isn’t handling well, then they have to start considering gambling on pit strategy or fuel mileage.

At this point it’s hard to imagine a team discovering a new trick or making a large advancement that will help over the next seven weeks. For the most part what you’ve seen so far this year is what you can expect from the teams and drivers. With that in mind here’s one way to try and predict who will sneak in to the ball and who will turn into a pumpkin after Richmond. I’m using driver rating to predict future performance. I realize it’s not perfect, but it’s a decent way of telling who is over- and underperforming in relation to their point standings this year.

Of the nine drivers in the gray area (Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Jeff Burton, Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson are safe), drivers with the best driver ratings are Jeff Gordon (5th overall, 95.2), Tony Stewart (6th, 94.9), Denny Hamlin (7th, 93.1), Greg Biffle (8th, 89.7), Kevin Harvick (10th, 88.1) and Matt Kenseth (87.3, 11th). Based on their driver ratings compared (which I mentioned earlier in the season) to their point standing Gordon, Stewart and Hamlin are also driving better than they have actually finished. While this doesn’t always translate into improved finishes, it’s a lot easier to take a fast car and finish well than to take a slower car and hope you can outlast enough people for a strong finish. For Gordon, Stewart and Hamlin it’s also a good sign that they have teammates that are running really well every week. That also tells me that they are capable of not only finishing well, but could win a race. Matt Kenseth, despite a miserable start to his season, also falls in the category of a driver capable of winning a race, based on his last nine starts (eight top tens).

Meanwhile drivers like Clint Bowyer and Kevin Harvick have finished decently but their driver ratings aren’t as stellar. Despite a 3rd place finish last weekend at Chicago, Kevin Harvick has been very anonymous this year. Because Pocono, Michigan and California are unreliable for Harvick, he can’t afford bad finishes at the tracks where he is usually strong at like Indianapolis, Bristol and Richmond. The same goes for Bowyer who despite his win at Richmond has been more of a compiler than a front runner this year.

A little further back is Brian Vickers. He is the one person that is a wild card. He has been incredibly good on speedways and has a realistic chance to win at Indy, Pocono or Michigan. Unfortunately with Red Bull Racing still new to NASCAR, mistakes and letdowns are always lurking on the #83 team. The other issue is Vickers record at Bristol, Watkins Glen and Richmond. He has a combined 2 top tens in 20 starts at the three tracks. If he can mitigate the damage at these tracks with top 15’s or better, he has the speed on the downforce tracks to put a scare into the RCR cars for a spot in the Chase.

So you tell me, who will make it? Who will get tossed to the side? Who will have heartburn for the next seven weeks?

Be sure to check out Racing Nation for more racing news.

The good news for Matt Kenseth is that he is really good at Chicago. The bad news is that despite several dominant performances at the track, he has not won a race there yet. In 2005 he led 176 laps but was pipped at the end by Dale Earnhardt Jr on pit strategy. After a caution with 22 laps left, Kenseth pitted for four tires while Earnhardt Jr beat him out of the pits with a two tire stop. With lapped traffic and others taking two tires, Kenseth couldn’t run Junior down and settled for 2nd. In 2006 he was strong again, leading 112 laps and again led late. This time a charging Jeff Gordon got into the back of Kenseth and spun him out. Kenseth then ran out of fuel to finish 22nd. Last year he only led one lap but again finished 2nd. He also has two runner-up finishes in the Busch/Nationwide Series to add to the frustration. In the last three races at Chicago Kenseth owns the best driver rating (126.2) among all drivers and his average finish in all seven races is 10.1. The good news is that Kenseth should get another chance to run at the front this weekend.

This year’s race will go under the lights. It is the eleventh current Cup track to host a race under the lights and is the 13th race of the season. I love night races: the sparks, the faster speeds and additional grip all add something to the race. Having Sunday afternoons cleared is also nice. When places like Charlotte, Bristol, Richmond and Daytona first began running night races, there was a novelty to it and made these events stand out against the rest of the schedule. The problem is when is it overkill? Over a third of the season is now at night. Obviously for places like Phoenix, Daytona, Fontana and Chicago it is a lot more comfortable for fans at night (I can vouch for that in Phoenix), but at the same time it seems like all the new tracks are very quick to flip on the lights.

What Happened Last Year

Jimmie Johnson led 82 laps and was the best car on the track until a flat tire sent him into the outside wall. That opened the door for Tony Stewart to win his first race of 2007. It was the first of Stewart’s three wins over the next month and a half and pushed him into the thick of the Chase race.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Brian Vickers Red Bull has really found something in their intermediate program. Vickers was a top 5 car at Charlotte, Pocono and Michigan. He is getting really close to winning.

Chump: Clint Bowyer RCR is lacking juice on the 1.5 mile tracks this year.

Sleeper: Casey Mears Last year’s pole winner, Mears has never started lower than 12th in five races. He has one top 5 and two top 10’s. He also won the 2006 Busch race.

Who Will Win?

Not only has Kenseth excelled at Chicago, he has run very well since May. He has seven top 10’s in 8 races, including three top 5’s. Kenseth almost always delivers at tracks that fit his style. His 3rd place finish at Michigan proved that again. He will finally break through at Chicago this weekend, granted he watches out for Jeff Gordon on his tail. How about a darkhorse to keep an eye on? Let’s go with Kasey Kahne.

Now that Dale Earnhardt Jr has scored his breakthrough win for 2008, who is the next driver to win for the first time this year? Nine different drivers have already won at least one race this year, but there are still a lot of big names looking to kick in the door to Victory Lane. Here’s a list of candidates in order of likeliness.

Aside from crazy circumstances, a team finding something revolutionary, or a road course ringer, I can’t see any other drivers challenging for wins this year. Anyone else you see winning this year?

Finally.

Dale Earnhardt Jr returned to Victory Lane in a Cup race. The last time Dale Earnhardt Jr won a Cup points race, Bill Clinton was in office. Or at least some people made it seem like it had been that long. The way Junior’s 2008 has gone, he could actually have multiple wins by now. He’s been a top five car nearly every week. It also doesn’t matter that he won on fuel mileage. They all count. The whole object of a race is to get to the front at the right time. Part of the reason the #88 team could gamble on fuel was their position in the standings. In prior seasons Earnhardt Jr has been near the bottom of the Chase standings and couldn’t afford a 25th place finish. With their 3rd place position it opens up more opportunities to take risks, which is exactly how they won on Sunday. Compare that with some of the other teams fighting for a Chase spot like Kevin Harvick, David Ragan and Jamie McMurray that were forced to pit under the final caution.

Not everyone is an Earnhardt Jr fan, but my guess is that the majority of NASCAR fans can appreciate Jr’s win and feel good about it. Put aside the fact that he’s the most popular driver in NASCAR, consider how hard it is to win Cup races. Now look at a few of the races where he’s come tantalizingly close to winning. He’s been wrecked while leading (Talladega 2006, Richmond 2008), had engine failures while running in the top 3 (Indianapolis, Richmond 2007), and been on the other side of the fuel mileage game (Charlotte 2007). It was a deserved, and popular, win.

• Tony Stewart is donating his winnings from Sunday’s race to the Red Cross and specifically the Indiana flood relief. Stewart spent most of the day in the top ten before coming home fifth. That’s a nice $136, 986 check for those in need.

  “I’m happy we got a top-five for everyone in Columbus, Indiana, and that we can do something to help our community out,” Stewart said. “It’s been on my mind all weekend. That’s what this top-five is for. When it’s your own community and your own neighbors, it’s good to generate a good amount of winnings for them.”

  The finish was also Stewart’s first top ten since a 4th place run at Richmond last month.

• I tried the Race Buddy, which is great. You can toggle between different camera views like Pit Road, In-Car, On Track Battles or four angles at once. It’s a poor man’s Hot Pass. The one downside, as my wife pointed out, is that there is no Bill Weber to complain about.

• Matt Kenseth continued his rebound with a 3rd place finish after leading 41 laps. It could have been better if not for his pit road incident with a track official. As Kenseth was leaving his pit, he had to brake when the official was still in front of his car for some reason. It cost him spots on the track that he never made up. Kenseth’s teammate Greg Biffle also had a costly pit road incident. The team was changing two tires but Biffle took off before the front tire changer could clear the car and was almost hit. Unfortunately the move also was a penalty because the air gun was left on the wrong side of the car. It was another top five run for Biffle, spoiled by a team mistake.

• Red Bull Racing’s intermediate program is really coming alive. Not only did Brian Vickers have one of the strongest cars in the race but AJ Allmendinger was also strong (79.7 driver rating) before getting shuffled back at the end. The team is still growing and needs improvement on the shorter tracks, but is one of the big stories of the last month. Now Allmendinger heads to Sonoma with a very good chance of scoring his first top ten finish.

• Kyle Petty noted how many races have come down to pit strategy with the new car. That’s true, but I think it has less to do with the car itself and more from the timing of the cautions. With track position at an even greater premium and crew chiefs unsure how even the best car will handle in traffic, getting to the front is now paramount.

• The win was Chevy’s first at Michigan since 2001.

• 18 different drivers have won Cup races since Earnhardt Jr’s last Cup win in 2006.

• The race lasted 2 hours 47 minutes. Last week’s race at Pocono last 4 hours.


For more racing news and opinion check out Racing Nation.

During Sunday’s race I had to paint a room in our house while listening to MRN and occasionally stealing time in front of the TV. With that context I can certifiably state that the Pocono race was more exciting than watching paint dry. Actually it was a lot more exciting. Whether it was the CoT, the new patch in turn 3, the hot and sticky weather, a great tire package from Goodyear or a combination, the racing was pretty good. Cars could make their way through traffic, but the leader didn’t necessarily check out in clean air.

Kasey Kahne was strong again winning his second Cup points race in three weeks and third Cup race (the All-Star exhibition race) in four. Kahne was obviously the best car on the track, but once again he got a little bit of help via other cars’ misfortune. Greg Biffle and Tony Stewart both suffered pit road speeding penalties on the final pit stop, ruining top five runs. Carl Edwards, who was content to lurk during the first 150 laps, got a flat tire on the final pit stop and watched his chance at the win vanish. Even the way Brian Vickers was able to hold off the faster Denny Hamlin in the final segment allowed Kahne to pull away without any serious challenges. Kahne had the best car and deserved to win, but it’s interesting all the different cars that could have challenged him but instead fell short for a variety of reasons.

• In the Top 35 Derby, Michael Waltrip fell outside the bubble giving way to Scott Riggs. Riggs had a very solid day, starting 9th then leading six laps on his way to a 21st place showing. It’s only one race, but that will make the #66 team’s week much easier not having to worry about qualifying for the next race without crew chief Bootie Barker. The Top 35 remains a tight scrum. Regan Smith is in 31st place but only leads 36th place Waltrip by 56 points. With Somoma and Daytona pending, the next month could really shuffle the top 35 battle.

• After Juan Pablo Montoya was collected by a wrecking Clint Bowyer, he was more concerned with how he was running prior to the crash. He only spent 17 laps in the top 15 and was clearly unhappy with Team Ganassi’s performance. When you see Montoya outperform his teammates and most other Dodge cars on a weekly basis, it’s pretty obvious Montoya is holding up his end of the bargain. It’s also clear that Ganassi, and to a smaller degree Dodge, is not providing strong enough equipment for Montoya.

• Red Bull Racing had their best race so far in their short NASCAR career. Brian Vickers led 18 laps and held off Denny Hamlin for second place. Teammate AJ Allmendinger qualified 8th, spent three fourths of the race inside the top 15 and came home 12th. It was Allmendinger’s best Cup finish and his 95.2 was by far his highest driver rating. Obviously the large horsepower from Toyota helps, but it takes more than a strong engine to threaten for wins and top tens. Allmendinger still endures his share of struggles, but he is also showing signs that he is getting comfortable in a stock car. Vickers explained the difference from last year:
  

  in this sport, it’s all about people. Jay Frye (general manager, Red Bull Racing Team) coming on board has been great leadership from the top. It always starts from the top down, but there’s been a lot of other people. Jay has been a large part of it, but I don’t want to give him all the credit. There’s a lot of people that have come on board and a lot of great people that are still there from last year

  Some people thought Vickers made a mistake to leave Hendrick two years ago, but that bold decision now looks like the right one. He is getting strong cars and is also proving his driving talent away from the spotlight of Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson. Vickers is a legitimate threat to win a race this year and could even compete for a spot in the Chase in 2009.

For more racing news and opinion check out Racing Nation

Dale Jarrett’s Final Race

One of the classiest and most successful Cup drivers of the last 20 years will hang up the firesuit on Sunday (that is, until one of the three MWR cars falls hopelessly outside the top 35). Michael Waltrip Racing owes a great deal to Jarrett for where the company is today. It would be nice to believe Jarrett could have a storybook ending and challenge for the large cardboard check, but NASCAR racing rarely bows to Disney endings.

An Emerging Driver Will win the Open

The last three years the undercard race has been won by a driver on the verge of a breakout. IN 2005 Brian Vickers Mike Bliss on his way to his first win in a Cup car. He finally won a points race in 2006 (in eerily similar fashion). In 2006 Scott Riggs won the Open, which he followed up by winning the pole for the Coca-Cola 600 and also enjoyed his strongest Cup season. Last year Martin Truex Jr set up a hot summer streak by storming to an Open win. He went on to win at Dover, score top 3’s in four of six races and make the Chase.

Whether it’s a sibling rivalry or revisiting an old skirmish, the All-Star race is the perfect platform for getting something off your chest. In 2004 after Kurt Busch took out teammate Greg Biffle, plus about eight other cars when he gave bumpdrafting a try on a 1.5 mile track. In 2005 Tony Stewart was at the heart of a multi-car wreck, but Joe Nemechek used the opportunity to get into Kevin Harvick’s face while Stewart evaded criticism. Nemechek was apparently still upset at Harvick for inciting a large melee during the Gatorade Duels at Daytona that February (Note to competitors: Front Row Joe has a long memory, don’t cross him). 2006 Stewart was again involved in a wreck, this time with Matt Kenseth that had some residual tones from their tangle in the Daytona 500 from earlier in 2006. Last year Kurt and Kyle Busch collided, sparking a mild spat amongst the brothers. Said the elder Kurt Busch, “I’m not gonna be eating any Kellogg’s for a while.”

Dale Earnhardt Jr is far classier than most of his fans (at least the obnoxiously vocal ones), but if he wanted to settle any scores (hypothetical, of course), he could pick a worse race than an exhibition event. Like you weren’t thinking the same thing.

For what it’s worth, I have Greg Biffle as the winner and Ryan Newman and/or Juan Pablo Montoya involved in quasi-fisticuffs (I love it when I can use the quasi-fisticuffs tag).

It feels like the Cup boys were just at Daytona, but eight races later the year is one fourth over. I’ve already discussed a few things we’ve learned so far, but it’s time to check out a few teams and drivers and hand out some grades for the quarter. It’s not a final grade (NASCAR is on semesters, right?), but more of a progress report.

These grades aren’t based strictly on performance, but more on preseason expectations. So a car or team expected to run in the thirties that is running in the teens or twenties is a bigger deal than Carl Edwards or Kyle Busch running well. It’s not a surprise that those two are winning races.

Go fast or go home. It’s a phrase no team wants mentioned in conjunction with their cars. With only one race to go before 2008 owner points take effect, the top 35 picture is taking shape. For new teams inside the top 35 it means a guaranteed starting spot. Likewise, the teams that have not cracked the top 35 in 2008 owner points will have to qualify on speed for one of the final eight transfer spots. Once the top 35 gets set after Bristol, the chances of entering or exiting that safe haven decrease each week. That places immense pressure on this week’s race for teams that need to either hang on or move up. Holding the crucial fifth race at the potentially volatile Bristol track makes it even more tense. You can be sure nine or ten teams will be packing extra heartburn medicine this weekend.

Two teams have already locked themselves in for race six at Martinsville. Kurt Busch and Brian Vickers could fail to qualify for Bristol(Busch has a provisional anyway) and still have enough points to stay in the top 35. For other drivers it is less fun. Only 86 points separate 31st through 39th. It sounds like a lot, but making a race guarantees 34 points. If a car currently inside the top 35 like Michael Waltrip misses the race, that opens the door for another outside the top 35.

Right now JJ Yeley sits in the final spot in the top 35 safety zone. He is only 18 points ahead of 36th place Sam Hornish Jr, which is the difference of six places, less with five bonus points for leading a lap. 5 teams that will make the Bristol race due to their 2007 owners points are currently outside the top 35 based on 2008 owners points. The #01, #22, #40, #45, #77 all face the possibility of squandering their early season fortune.

All four rookies currently sit outside the top 35. Sam Hornish Jr, Dario Franchitti, Regan Smith and Patrick Carpentier sit in 36th, 38th, 39th and 46th respectively. Smith is the only driver that has previously raced at Bristol and that could provide an advantage. The tight confines of Bristol pose a much different challenge and smaller margin for error than the wider and bigger speedways the tour raced at the last three weeks.

It’s also interesting that the open wheelers are all struggling mightily. Hornish Jr had a top 15 at Daytona but then wrecked in his next two starts. Franchitti hasn’t wrecked, but simply run at the tail of the field every week. Patrick Carpentier and AJ Allmendinger haven’t qualified for races and sinking their chances before they even had a chance to crash on Sundays. All of this makes Juan Pablo Montoya’s debut even more impressive. At the same point last year Montoya was safely inside the top 35 and scored a top five at Atlanta.

The rookie struggles means, strange as it sounds, that a driver with zero Cup starts could wind up as Rookie of the Year. The #00 has a nice points cushion thanks to David Reutimann making every race so far. After Martinsville, Reutimann will shift to the #44 (also inside the top 35) and rookie Michael McDowell will take the wheel of the #00. He won’t set the world on fire, but he could be the only rookie with a guaranteed starting spot each week.

Rookies, open-wheelers, and open-wheel rookies aren’t the only teams that will need a second coat of Old Spice this weekend. Michael Waltrip Racing currently has all three cars locked inside the top 35, although the #44 and #55 are toeing the edge of the cliff. After a nightmare 2007 debut, Waltrip has rebounded but there is still one more race for each car to make.

Further up in the points are two drivers from marquee teams. Casey Mears in 30th place and Jamie McMurray in 31st are each one bad Bristol crash from plunging into serious danger. Both are top 20 drivers in top 10 equipment, but can’t seem to garner their deserved finishes. It’s one thing to struggle, but another thing entirely to flirt with the top 35.

On the other end of the spectrum is Kyle Petty. He has made every race, but he sits 40th in the points and needs a lot of help or a spectacular run at Bristol to keep his guaranteed starting spot. His teammate Bobby Labonte has been very competitive each week, but Petty has not finished better than 32nd. His 28.5 driver rating exemplifies the team’s struggles. For Petty Enterprises this year it’s one step forward (#43 car) and one backward.

All in all, the bottom 35 is filled with interesting stories. What happens at Bristol will have consequences for the concerned parties for the rest of the year.

Last Week’s Caption Contest Winner

Thanks to everyone that submitted captions. The winner is John. He wins a $20 gift certificate to use at Whatever Sports.