Trouble in Turn2

If you missed Sunday’s race at Pocono here is a quick recap in a segment I like to call, “Pocono in a nutshell”: Carl Edwards won(again) the race on fuel mileage, Mark Martin was undone by no fault of his own (again), Jimmie Johnson looked strong(again) and the Deathstar(Kyle Busch) appears to be penetrable(slightly). Meanwhile my kitchen remodel is coming along nicely.

Pocono ended i a fuel mileage race which is becoming a trend this year. I have a theory why. The CoT is so hard to drive that teams are willing to take more risks with strategy because it’s so difficult to pass under green. The fact that there are fewer cautions late with the car also means longer green flag runs at long speedways like Pocono and Michigan which also contributes.

• Nice run for Chad McCumbee in the #45 Petty Enterprises car. He finished a career high 17th on Sunday. It was only the 3rd top 20 of the season for the team as they scramble to crack the top 35. They still sit in 40th place and Kyle Petty will return to the seat next week at Watkins Glen. Last year when Petty drove at the Glen he got in a wreck, finished last and injured himself after slamming his hand in frustration. In an unrelated story Petty Enterprises is ordering extra steering wheel padding.

• One of the silliest graphics during a broadcast is the “estimated fuel gauge”. Whenever there is a fuel mileage race, the networks pull that one out. It’s inaccurate, doesn’t really show the viewer anything they didn’t already know and usually all the drivers listed on the graphic are all low on fuel. Thanks for the info, TV.

• Speaking of no fuel, did anyone else think it was funny when Dale Earnhardt Jr and Jeff Gordon drag raced to the finish line as both ran out of fuel? It was like a photo finish in speedwalking.

• Kevin Harvick regained his spot in the top 12 with a 4th place finish. He spun on the first lap, but incredibly didn’t hit anything. Despite the 4th place result, he didn’t gain many points on his closest competition because David Ragan finished 5th, Clint Bowyer 6th and Matt Kenseth led a lap and finished 11th. Only 19 points separate the four drivers with only five races left. While everyone from TV, news and nerdy, stats-based bloggers will talk about the Chase and how close the points battle is, Harvick will take a different approach, “You just go out and race as fast as you can. That’s about all you can do.” And Harvick is exactly right. Everything else is out of his control. According to Sports Club Stats, Harvick has a 69.2% chance of making the Chase while Ragan in 14th has a less than 50% chance. It’s going to stay crazy until Richmond.

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The last seven seasons have seen the advent of a youth movement in NASCAR at the Cup level. Young Guns have taken over in large numbers and many have quickly found success. Since 2000 a rookie has won a race in every season except 2004. Going back to 2002 the recent rookie classes have been pretty impressive. 12 of 19 drivers have won races, nine have made a Chase appearance and one has won two championships. Not bad for a wave of drivers that some fans complained were ruining the sport (Toyota and open wheel drivers have since acquired that “honor”). So which rookie class featured the best rookies? It’s a tough decision. I decided to look at the various classes from 2002-2006. I didn’t rate the 2007 class because drivers deserve at least three seasons for a fair assessment. The only reason I included the 2006 class was because it included so many drivers with immediate success it was an exceptional case. This week focuses on the 2003 class. Check out previous reviews: 2002, 2003.

The 2004 Class (Kasey Kahne, Brian Vickers, Scott Riggs, Scott Wimmer, Johnny Sauter, Brendan Gaughan, Carl Edwards)

Kasey Kahne took the Cup world by storm in 2004 when he finished 2nd in two of the first three races, narrowly losing to Matt Kenseth at Rockingham and Las Vegas. While he couldn’t find victory lane as a rookie, he did finish 2nd 5 times. His good looks also didn’t hurt for attracting fans and sponsors. He easily won rookie of the year and almost made the Chase, eventually settling for 13th place in the standings. He finished the season with 13 top 5’s, 14 top 10’s and 4 poles.

Amid raised expectations 2005 was a struggle. He won his first Cup race at Richmond, but had an overall disappointing sophomore season. The big breakthrough finally came in 2006 when he won 6 races, all at intermediate tracks, and made the Chase. While he still has some inconsistency issues, Kahne is one of the top drivers at intermediate tracks and can also excel at short tracks. He has proven his speedway prowess again this year with two more wins so far.

Kahne was the runaway surprise of the 2004 rookie class. That instant success was initially pegged for another driver. Brian Vickers won the 2003 Busch Championship and at the time was expected to easily adjust to the Cup level with Hendrick Motorsports. Of course people forgot that Vickers was only 20. While teammates Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon were fighting for titles, Vickers struggled like almost any 20 year old would. Looking back it should have been expected, especially given the tough circumstances at the end of 2004. The Hendrick team was struck by tragedy which included the loss of Vickers’ close friend Ricky Hendrick. Despite his struggles he still managed 4 top tens and two poles as a rookie.

2005 and 2006 saw improvement and several times looked capable of winning. Vickers did finally win in the fall Talladega race, but at the expense of wrecking his teammate, Jimmie Johnson, and Dale Earnhardt Jr, which hardly cultivated fans for Vickers. After the 2006 season he sought a fresh start with the brand new Toyota Red Bull team. Like every Toyota team in 2007, Vickers struggled to make races and finished 38th in points. This year he has elevated his game and is again on the verge of winning races. Maybe it’s because he’s in his fifth Cup season, but it’s easy to forget that he is only 24. While it wasn’t a straight ascent to the top as expected Vickers is finally realizing his potential.

Brendan Gaughan scored what appeared to be a top ride for a rookie when Penske Racing South signed him to drive for the 2004 season. Coming off a six win Truck season in 2003, he appeared ready for the next level. Like most normal rookies, he struggled to finish races and only scored four top tens all season. He was let go after the season to make way for another rookie, Travis Kvapil. Gaughan returned to the Truck Series where he still drives for his family’s team. He made one substitute appearance for Haas-CNC in 2005, wrecked Kyle Petty, and has not resurfaced on the Cup level since. While Gaughan was far from brilliant in his rookie season, Kvapil did not fare any better in the same car the next year. Maybe he would have improved with more time, but it looks like Gaughan’s one chance at the Cup level is all he will get.

It took Scott Riggs a few years to gain traction at the Cup level he improved in each of his first three seasons. After a move from MB/2 Motorsports to Evernham in 2006 Riggs posted 1 top 5, 8 top 10’s and won two poles and finished 20th in the points. Unfortunately Riggs saw everything around him unravel in 2007 as the organization made some major engineering mistakes and Riggs fell outside the top 35. While Riggs is a steady driver and capable of piloting a fast car, he seems destined to be a career journeyman. 2009 will mark his fourth team in six Cup seasons.

Scott Wimmer nearly pulled off one of the biggest shocks of 2004 right off the bat. He gambled on pit strategy at the Daytona 500 and suddenly found himself in the lead with 29 laps to go. He eventually lost the lead but held on for an impressive 3rd place finish. Unfortunately it is Wimmer’s only top 5 to date at the Cup level. After two unremarkable years with Bill Davis Racing and one forgettable year with the struggling Morgan-McClure team Wimmer returned to the Nationwide Series where he runs a part time schedule and tests for RCR. He won the Nationwide race at Nashville earlier this year. His connection with RCR will likely continue to land him occasional Cup starts.

Based on his solid results in the lower ranks and the Busch Series, Johnny Sauter was given a chance on the Cup side with Richard Childress Racing. He began the season in the #30 AOL car and like every other rookie excluding Kahne, Sauter struggled. After failing to score a top ten in his first 13 races he was released in favor of veteran Dave Blaney. He has since landed rides with Phoenix Racing and Haas Racing with limited success. Sauter has three career top tens at the Cup level including a best of 5th.

Ironically, Sauter’s early exit eventually led to RCR hiring Jeff Burton to drive the car in midseason. Burton’s exit from Roush paved the way for a young driver to take NASCAR by surprise. Carl Edwards jumped into the #99 car at the August Michigan race and scored a top ten. While the rest of the season was not as smooth, he did have 5top tens in only 13 races.

Originally pegged to one day replace Mark Martin, Edwards had carved out his own identity with the #99 car. He won his first Cup race in style, passing Jimmie Johnson on the final turn at Atlanta. He then pulled off his signature backflip for the first time in a Cup race. He won four races and made the Chase field. With a late surge he nearly won the Chase but finished tied for second with teammate Greg Biffle.

Edwards struggled to repeat his charmed 2005 and went winless in 2006 and missed the Chase. He rebounded in 2007 with three wins and a spot in the Chase. He also has three wins through 19 races in 2008 and is in good shape to make his third Chase in four full seasons.

Verdict: The 2004 class had seven drivers which increases the odds that at least one driver will succeed, but three out of seven drivers are Cup winners and top 20 drivers. The rest makeup the underappreciated NASCAR workforce. The class gets a big boost from Edwards’ inclusion. Edwards and Kahne are bona fide stars at the Cup level, while Vickers is a very solid driver that is still improving. Scott Riggs and Johnny Sauter are both capable drivers that probably will remain Cup journeymen with the occasional highlights. Scott Wimmer has found success with RCR’s Nationwide team and will probably get another chance at the Cup level. Gaughan will likely remain a footnote for the rookie class.

It’s Indy time for the Cup guys. That means speeds over 200 mph, a huge purse (last year was over $8 million) and tight racing. With not a lot of room to pass in the corners, horsepower on the straightaways is a driver’s best friend. Dale Earnhardt Jr participated in the recent Goodyear tire test and he also quelled concern about tires.

Tire wear was a big issue. When we first started out, you recall last year and in years past, when we first get there, we go to the cords in about five laps. It takes the whole weekend to build the rubber up on the track before that goes away. We did that again, and we found a tire that will work with another tire that lasted quite a bit longer and ran just as quick.

Because Indianapolis is such a large track, tires can wear out quickly. It’s compounded by the fact that the Trucks and Nationwide cars don’t see the track. That also minimizes the amount of rubber buildup. The fact that Earnhardt is happy with the durability and quality of the tire is a good thing for the level of racing and safety.

What Happened Last Year

Dale Earnhardt Jr dominated the early stages of the race but blew an engine. It was one of three engine failures in the final seven races before the Chase, completely souring his chances to make the Chase or win a race. Tony Stewart took advantage and went on to cruise to an easy win. The win also produced two of the more memorable quotes from Stewart. While closing in on Kevin Harvick, Stewart casually uttered “Here kitty kitty” over the team radio. Then after his win he swore in Victory Lane on live TV. In a post Janet Jackson-FCC crackdown society, Stewart was fined. It didn’t help that it was ESPN’s first broadcast of their new television deal.

Notes

• In the short history at the Brickyard Jeff Gordon owns almost all of the records. 4 wins, 11 top 10’s, 433 laps led, and three poles are all tops.

• In 9 Indy starts Dave Blaney has never led a lap. Every driver with more than 4 starts has led at least one lap.

• Chevy has won the last five races and nine of 14 overall at Indianapolis. Dodge and Pontiac have one win each while Ford has three, although none since 1999. Toyota is tied with Oldsmobile and Scion at zero.

• James at One Bad Wheel has an interesting article on the history of victory lane celebrations. Todd Parrott is credited with starting the brick kissing tradition in 1996. It’s interesting to see how different traditions start and what makes one action stick while others are considered lame? Kissing bricks, climbing fences and drinking milk. They all make perfect sense. In a way it’s like nicknaming yourself. You can’t try too hard and make it intentional or it looks desperate. His article also reminded me of the time in 2005 when Kurt Busch won the fall Richmond race and kissed the asphalt. No one has done it since, thankfully.

• Bill Elliott will attempt to make his 15th Brickyard race. While he is no longer a threat to win races, Elliott can still get it done at select tracks. He has never finished worse than 23rd at Indy and has 5 top 5’s and 9 top 10’s in his career. That includes his 2002 win where he led 93 laps.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: David Ragan Ragan is becoming a serious threat on intermediate tracks. Last year he relied on attrition to score a decent finish. This year he is running in the top 10 and top 15 for the bulk of races.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Chump: Carl Edwards Sure Edwards can win at any track, but so far in his career Indy hasn’t agreed with him. A ninth place finish in 2006 is sandwiched by two mediocre finishes (12th, 18th) with bad driver ratings (69.6 and 67.1).

Sleeper: Mark Martin Martin stayed in the top 5 almost all day at Pocono and has already said he can win at Indy. He is not one to exaggerate.

Who Will Get to 1st Base with the Bricks?

Tony Stewart will surely be a popular choice along with his teammates Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. Kasey Kahne has been very good on speedways this summer and Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr could also show up in strength. Kevin Harvick is also one to watch (no matter what loser bloggers might say about his season, he comes good at Indy). Maybe I’m bored of picking the same four or five drivers each week, but I’m going deeper for my pick this week. Over the last two months
Brian Vickers has quietly ran with the leaders on a weekly basis. His driver rating over the last 8 races is a very neat 92.2. He was the fastest car at Michigan and one of the fastest at Lowe’s, Dover and Pocono. He is ready to win and it will be surprising if he doesn’t have a win by the time the Chase rolls around. Win number one for Red Bull Racing might come this weekend.

In the last four races dating back to Sonoma we have seen Kyle Busch in a nutshell. He has won three races at three completely different tracks and also thrown in a nice scuffle at Loudon for good measure. Since his crash at Pocono (and the accompanying nonsense about his lack of focus) he has seen his lead grow from 21 points to 262. If the Chase started today he would have a 50 point lead over Carl Edwards and Kasey Kahne.

After Kyle Busch’s first win of the season at Atlanta, I compared his fourth Cup season (at age 23) to that of Jeff Gordon’s 1995 season. In that season, Gordon’s 3rd in Cup (age 23), he won 7 races, had 17 top 5’s and 23 top 10’s, and won his first of four championships. At the time it seemed like a fair comparison. Through three years, Busch’s numbers were very similar to Gordon’s at the same age. Of course, thanks to Busch’s last four races, he is on a completely different plane. Busch is beginning to look like the Jeff Gordon of 1996-1998 when he won 10, 10 and 13 races respectively.

It’s undeniable that Busch is having a great season, but let’s hold off with the “Legendary” labels for now. The 2007 New England Patriots could speak intelligently on the subject. While some fans still feel the Chase is contrived, it’s one more challenge that Busch and any other driver has conquer. Of course Busch is doing everything he can in the regular season to gain the NASCAR equivalent of home field advantage throughout the playoffs by racing up as many bonus points as possible. Even if his 50 point lead holds up or grows, he will still face serious competition during the final ten races. Remember, 50 points is the difference between 1st and 8th place. Carl Edwards is stout on the 1.5 mile intermediate tracks that litter the Chase schedule. Dale Earnhardt has run in the top 5 for the entire season and Jimmie Johnson is quietly rounding into to form (he will win at least one to two more races before the Chase starts). Even teammates Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin have the tools to challenge Busch for the title during the final stretch. Go ahead and pile the compliments on Kyle Busch’s plate right now, he’s had a dream season to this point. But be careful to assume that Busch will win continue winning races at this pace or that the Chase is only a formality.

• Last week I questioned the need for more night races, but Chicago was a good show. It was a lot tougher to pass at Chicago than some of the similar tracks earlier this year and drivers really had to work for several laps to set up passes. Whether that is from the cooler night temperatures, Goodyear’s improved tires, the quality of the Chicago or a combination of factors, it was a good race to watch. The incredible sunset was a nice touch too.

• Speaking of tough to pass, is there a driver that is tougher to pass than Matt Kenseth? He is so adept at finding the line where another driver wants to be and making it really difficult for other drivers. It’s nothing illegal or cheap but it’s his signature move. Other drivers try it, but no one is able to hold on for so many laps with an inferior car to the one attempting to pass.

• TNT took a commercial break while the race was under green with 17 laps left. In a race that featured a lot of tight racing and had just featured a late pass for the lead, TNT should have stayed with the final 20 laps until either the finish or a caution flag. I realize how difficult it is to time commercials and balance the coverage with paying bills, but it seemed like a poor decision. What happens if Johnson cuts a tire, or Kyle Busch wrecks trying to run Johnson down? It created a situation where a race-altering move could have been missed in the final laps of the race.

• Kevin Harvick scored his first top 5 since Richmond nine races ago. The 3rd place finish allowed him to jump 4 spots in the standings to 9th. Richard Childress Racing teammate Clint Bowyer’s tailspin continued. After his win at Richmond, Bowyer sat in 4th place in the points and had scored 7 straight top tens. He now sits in 13th and only has two top tens in the last nine. The reason for Bowyer’s slide? In the first quarter of the season he ran in the top ten and top 15 avoided trouble to maximize his finishes. Now Bowyer is still running in the top 15 but has not been able to improve his position. His driver rating (79.7) is 17th best. If Bowyer hopes to make the Chase, that number will have to improve.

• Barring major catastrophe the top 5 drivers are pretty well locked into the Chase. Starting with Jeff Gordon in 6th place and back to 15th place David Ragan, there is only a 200 point gap. A lot could happen between now and Richmond to shuffle the bottom half of the Chase field.

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Saturday night’s race at Daytona was a perfect example of why Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards are having such great seasons. They have each enjoyed dominant stretches during the season, but their ability to take advantage of other’s mistakes and finish well when they’re at less than their best is why they are both early favorites to win the Championship.

Busch was solid early on when swapping the lead with Dale Earnhardt Jr. But then he somehow lost the steering on the car(a theme for the race) and fell to the last car on the lead lap. Meanwhile Edwards only spent 72 laps in the top 15 and didn’t crack the top ten until lap 92. The only lap he led was when he stayed out under yellow on lap 112, but then went to the back of the pack on the next lap. And then with three laps left Edwards and Busch were suddenly both poised to win the race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin and even David Gilliland had greater chances at winning, only to see them all slip from a variety of reasons. What Edwards and especially Busch did is exactly what Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson did last year. They didn’t thrash everyone on a weekly basis, but were very opportunistic and finished races when others didn’t. That’s the quality of a top team.

Kyle Busch now has 60 points towards his Chase score. That’s 40 more than Edwards and Kasey Kahne. If other drivers with title ambitions like Earnhardt Jr, Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart hope to keep up, they need to rattle off a few wins to close the gap at the start of the Chase.

• Tony Stewart suffered from dehydration and had to have JJ Yeley sub for him midway through the race. The look on Stewart’s face after he exited the car was one of pure exhaustion. Sometimes it’s easy to forget how physically and mentally demanding races can be, especially at restrictor plate where there is no time to relax.
  

  “I thought we were going to be able to (make it) for the first two runs, but once the car got a little bit loose and we had to start really sawing on the wheel, it’s like it zapped the energy out of me and I started making mistakes. It was a situation where I was trying to look out for everybody involved on the race team. I wasn’t doing us any favors by not being 100 percent. It was better to get out as early as we could versus sticking it out with 20 to go and expecting J.J. (Yeley) to get the thing back in the top-five. It’s one of those decisions you have to make early enough, and I knew I wasn’t feeling good and I wasn’t feeling any better and it was getting worse as we were going. Before the race, the nurse said she was going to buy us a couple of hours and we got three hours out of it. We still had to go out there and try.

• Kyle Petty and Bill Weber were trying to name other recent substitute drivers, but never answered their own question. Ricky Rudd subbed for Stewart in 2006 at Dover after Stewart hurt his shoulder at Lowe’s. Petty subbed for Kevin Harvick at Bristol in August 2004 when Harvick’s arm went numb. Dale Earnhardt also required subs at Loudon (Martin Truex) and Pocono (John Andretti) after his fiery accident in a Grand Am event at Infineion in 2004.

• DEI had a mixed bag this weekend. Paul Menard was the surprise pole winner and led the first ten laps. Mark Martin started 2nd and spent the majority of the race in the top ten before finishing 10th. On the other hand Regan Smith hit Menard from behind in the pits and later wrecked on the last lap and Martin Truex Jr was involved in numerous incidents before finishing 16th. Three cars in the top 20 is nice, but only Martin had a car good enough to hang with the top cars.

• For the second year, the Wide Open coverage was great. Seeing nearly all of the on-track action was exciting, especially in a race with a lot of great action. What would make it even better is if the announcers would be less, um, Wide Open. For example, Weber mentioned Yeley several times and what a great story that would make if he won the race. It’s true, that would have been a great story, but Weber shouldn’t try to force the story, especially when it obviously wasn’t going to happen. Wally Dallenbach, who I tend to like, could also have a bigger impact by saying less. Yelling over Petty and Weber doesn’t add anything and interrupting with a “Whoa!” when cars are single file, also doesn’t enhance the broadcast. Overall the broadcast matched the tempo of the race and did an exciting night justice.

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I’m always a little confused about Michigan. The track is wide and features several grooves, so drivers can find a place where their cars work best. Because it’s wide, that also means the passing can be rather easy. So is it a fun race because drivers like it or a dull one because the passing is so easy there aren’t great battles for position?

One thing I know is that when it follows Pocono it feels like the race flies by. It’s kind of like working out at the gym next to a big, ripped guy. Your lack of size is amplified in that setting. Pocono is a race that feels like you could watch the Ten Commandments, run some errands and then paint your bedroom before the checkered flag flies, while Michigan feels like it’s over before you can finish your chips and salsa.With a tendency for long green flag runs, the race often boils down to the final pit stop or fuel mileage.

Track Fun Fact of the Week: According to wikipedia (and who would question something on the internet?), Michigan International Speedway also hosts the Michigan High School cross country championship, presumably in the infield. Imagine how discouraging it would be to be running along, feeling good about your pace and then you look over and see Greg Biffle turn a few hot laps at 190 mph.

What Happened Last Year

Carl Edwards continued Roush Racing’s utter dominance of Michigan. Martin Truex appeared to have a better car in the final segment but couldn’t quite pull in Edwards. The win was the first for Edwards in 52 races, and was especially pleasing to his motorcoach driver Tom “Yeti” Giacchi. He had made a deal with Edwards in 2006 that he wouldn’t shave until Edwards won a race.

Notes and Fantasy Tips

• Roush dominates here. Roush has won ten races and their current drivers are good (Carl Edwards 1 win, 4 top 5’s), better (Greg Biffle 2 wins, 4 top 5’s) and best (Matt Kenseth 1 win, 7 top 5’s). Ford and Dodge have split the two Michigan wins each of the past five seasons.

  Meanwhile a Chevrolet (or Pontiac for that matter) has not won at Michigan since 2001 when Jeff Gordon took the checkers. There isn’t a great reason why the bowtie hasn’t won, just a fluke thing that happens in sports sometimes.

• Sunday is Father’s Day. Jame McMurray and Crown Royal are running a special paint scheme to tribute McMurray’s dad along with a personalized message:

  

  So McMurray isn’t big on words, but the message is clear. Many parents sacrifice a lot for their kids and it’s exponentially true in an expensive, traveling sport like auto racing.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Matt Kenseth Kenseth is outstanding at Michigan (11 top 10’s in 17 starts and a 9.7 avg finish). He won the 2006 August race in dominant fashion. Kenseth got out of the gates slowly this year, but is catching up to his teammates.

Chumps: Jeff Burton Burton has avoided trouble and scored a lot of top tens this year. RCR’s intermediate program is a behind Roush, Gibbs, Hendrick, Evernham and even Penske. Burton will struggle this weekend.[Click for more Chumps notes]

Sleepers: Casey Mears Over the last six Michigan races, Mears has the 11th best driver rating (89.0) and 1 top 5 and two top 10’s. At some point he has to run well, right? Right? [Click for more Sleepers notes]

And the winner is…

The easy method would be to draw a Roush-Fenway-Varitek(the joke never gets old to me) driver’s name out of a hat. In that case Todd Kluever is your man. Apparently my Roush Roster is two years old. So Plan B shows that Jimmie Johnson is the man this weekend. I feel it’s also time to institute the “Dale Jr or Kyle Busch could win on any given Sunday” caveat. One is winless and the other has four wins, but both have run in the top five almost every week and led enough laps to prove that a victory from either would not register a surprise.

This week’s Cup race is at the uniquely shaped Poconnnghh. [wakes up]Sorry, Pocono Raceway. In my unofficial poll of Cup drivers I have interviewed, 100% have admitted that the Pocono race can get pretty long. The popular opinion is that Pocono races are at least 100 miles too long. While that may be true, and the actual racing could improve, calling a race at Pocono dull is not always true. Check out a few of the events in recent years:

• June 2004: Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick took turns spinning and hitting each other at the finish line. The spat prompted Harvick to sport a Matt Kenseth T-Shirt the following week at Michigan.
• June 2005: Carl Edwards, having never seen the track in person wins the race. He credits his win to playing a video game simulation.
• June 2006: Denny Hamlin spins, hits the concrete curb, suffers substantial damage while pulling a large patch of grass into the car, and still comes back to win in dominant fashion.
• July 2006: Tony Stewart “teaches” Clint Bowyer a lesson about give and take…by spinning him into Carl Edwards. The innocent victim Edwards responds by spinning Stewart on pit road. A furious Bowyer (utilizing his patented Dolph Lundgren glare) confronts Stewart after the race.

See? That’s why it’s important to watch the race. Monday morning you’ll need to know what to talk about.

What Happened Last Year

Denny Hamlin was on his way to dominating his third straight Pocono race, when rain shuffled everything. The result was Jeff Gordon using pit strategy to gain the lead and then narrowly edging Ryan Newman before the rain fell. It was Gordon’s 4th of six wins and emphasized how teams were willing to gamble on track position in hopes of precious Chase bonus points for wins.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers (on the track, not your couch)

Champs: Ryan Newman He nearly won last year, has the fourth best driver rating (101.9) and his career Pocono line reads 1 win, 5 top 5’s and 6 top 10’s in 12 starts. Penske knows how to set up a car here.

Chumps: Clint Bowyer I admit, this week has me a little stumped. Bowyer has 2 top 10’s in 4 starts, but only a 72.2 driver rating.

Sleepers: Michael McDowell This pick is Sleeper with a capital “S”, but here’s why. He won an ARCA race and finished 6th in the other last year at Pocono. His problem this year has been wrecks, which typically aren’t an epidemic at the long track. Why not?

Who Will Win?

Is Big Brown entered? If not, then you have to look at one organization. Joe Gibbs Racing knows how to get around Pocono. Denny Hamlin has 2 wins, 3 top 5’s and 4 top 10’s in four races. Tony Stewart has 1 win, 5 top 5’s and 13 top 10’s in 18 starts. Maybe JGR has a killer NASCAR simulation game. Whatever it is, Stewart is ready to finally ready to make a deposit in his 2008 win account.

I just finished watching Days of Thunder, and despite knowing almost everything that would happen, I still found it more enteraining than Sunday’s Best Buy 400 at Dover. Officially the race had 17 green flag lead changes. In reality it was a three car race with most lead changes (9) only occurring during green flag pit stops. Essentially Kyle Busch’s pit crew beat Carl Edwards’ and Greg Biffle’s. By lap 160 Jeff Gordon made his way into fifth place and the top five never changed again. One point to make was that the lack of excitement didn’t have very much to do with the lack of lead lap cars, it was simply a race with long green flag runs and not much passing. There were times when cars would ride nose to tail for 20 or 30 laps with neither able to pull away. Busch summed up the lack of excitement this way,

“It wasn’t I guess all that exciting. You know, that’s a product of what we’ve got going on here. We’re working on trying to make our cars go as fast as they can. The faster we make them go, the more aero-dependent they’re going to be. The more you put out on the racetrack, the more the air is going to get screwed up. You know, we’re all fighting for space. We’re all fighting for air. We’re all fighting for everything. Sorry it wasn’t exciting.”

It’s not Busch’s fault the race was boring, nor is it the teams’ fault. With the CoT still in its infancy, there will continue to be snoozers like we saw at Dover. It’s not pretty to watch, but expect more of the same as teams, Goodyear and NASCAR all get a grasp on the car.

The one nugget of excitement came on lap 19 when several top cars collected after Elliott Sadler and David Gilliland made contact. First Tony Stewart, then Denny Hamlin and finally Bill Elliott and Scott Riggs all took turns diving on the hog pile in turn 2. As you might expect, the reactions were varied. First Stewart:

“I take 100% responsibility — it’s my fault for being even anywhere close to Elliott (Sadler). If I’m within a half a lap of him, I expect that to happen. It’s my fault — I’m the one that hit him. When I hit him it caused all the guys behind us to wreck. So it’s my fault.”

Obviously there is still some residual ill-will from Stewart for the wreck at Darlington. Stewart has had wrecks in three of the last five races, and last week had a win snuffed out by a flat tire. Common sense says Stewart will rebound during the summer months, but he had similar problems in 2006 and failed to make the Chase. It’s definitely something to watch.

Meanwhile teammate Denny Hamlin received a lot of heat for plowing into the wreck late. It did appear that other drivers managed to slow down in less time than Hamlin, but Elliott and Riggs were even further behind Hamlin and still couldn’t stop in time.

“It’s so tight off of turn two right there. I feel bad for Elliott (Sadler). I came piling in there way late. I had the 43 (Bobby Labonte) right on my bumper trying not to get hit from him. When I heard wreck off turn two I immediately was on the brakes. It’s just these cars don’t stop as well as they had in the past. Luckily, I wasn’t the last one. It looked like guys even behind me piled in there. It’s just part of the race track.”

While I find it a little easy to blame the track and the heavier car, something obviously caused problems for numerous cars in the accident. After his incident last weekend in the Nationwide race, Hamlin is probably not a popular driver with many fans, but it’s not really fair either.

Other Notes

Nice runs by Dave Blaney, Travis Kvapil and Juan Pablo Montoya. All scored top 12’s. Meanwhile Sam Hornish Jr finished 19th to return to the top 35. The finish was his second top 20 and moved him all the way to 33rd in the owners standings. Meanwhile thanks to a steep 150 point penalty earlier this week and a bad wreck on Sunday, Scott Riggs and the #66 car fell outside the top 35. With the other Haas car missing another race, things are getting tough in a hurry for Haas-CNC.

Fox did a good job this year with their NASCAR coverage (although I could have passed on the letter grades feature today). Now it’s on to TNT. At least Kyle Petty will keep things fresh.

It’s a stupid baseball statistic, but it makes a lot of sense in NASCAR. The close and late statistic has begun to creep into baseball discussion. How does a hitter fare when it’s a one or two run game and in the seventh inning or later. The trouble with using this criteria in baseball is that a run is important regardless of what inning it is scored, they all count the same (no matter what the knucklehead on talk radio might tell you). In NASCAR the only thing that matters is who is around at the end. A driver could be terrible all day, but if they can figure out how to lead the one lap that matters, then all is forgotten. Look at some of the races this year. Ryan Newman at Daytona and Jeff Burton at Bristol both won by passing more dominant cars in the final laps. Burton is somewhat of an expert on leading at the right time. His last three Cup wins have come from a total of 9 laps led. That’s peaking at the right time and ultimately is what matters.

The key is making your way to the front at the right time. If a team can get into the top five in the final 10-15% of a race, that’s close enough to be in position to win. It obviously doesn’t guarantee victory, sometimes one car is going to dominate no matter what, but it increases your chances. A top five position with means that you can capitalize if another car slips up, or allows you to make a daring pass and hang on for the final laps.

How do you get track position at the end?

There are three basic ways that a team can use to get prime track position near the end of a race.
A Quick car- The most obvious, and usually most assured way to climb into the top 5 or better is to have a fast car. Teams spend the first 300-400 miles of a race improving the handling of their cars so that they are turning the quickest laps at the end. Good teams like the #48, #24 and #20 don’t always spend an entire afternoon in the top 5, but suddenly with 50 laps to go they appear, causing fans (and probably rival drivers) to ask, “where did he come from?”

Quick Pitstops- A fast car is not always enough to get the job done. Your driver has the fastest car all day, dominating the rest of the field when a caution comes out with 30 laps left. After a slow pit stop, the car comes out third or fourth and just can’t handle the same in traffic. Even worse, the crew makes a mistake like missing a lugnut or letting a tire roll outside the pit box. Suddenly a top five car is relegated to a top ten car or worse.

On the flipside, a team has a good car, but just can’t pass the leader on the track. Beating the leader out of the pits is a way to get that track position and possibly a win.

Quick Thinking- If a team doesn’t have the track position, and they don’t have a fast enough car to power to the front, sometimes it falls to the crew chief to take a calculated risk. If everyone pits with 20 laps left, a car can take two tires or stay out on the track to gain a prime spot for the restart. Or during green flag pit stops, maybe the team comes in early to enjoy more laps on fresh tires.

When rain threatens, teams are more apt to gamble on track position. Look at last year’s June Pocono race. Jeff Gordon and Casey Mears had decent cars, but staying on the same pit cycles as everyone else wasn’t going to improve their positions beyond mid-pack. They staggered their pit stops and Gordon won the race and Mears scored an unlikely top five.

Why Do We Care?

In order to see measure who was in position to win races, I looked at the laps led in the final 15% of a race. I chose 15% because at the majority of tracks, this is larger than the fuel window and so at least one pit stop would fall in the final 15% of these races (this might have to be adjusted for short tracks). In 2007 the #48, #24 and #20 were the top three cars in laps led in the final 15% of races. Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon won a combined 16 races and each scored victories through the different methods. In some races they were simply the strongest cars that would not be denied no matter the circumstances. Other races saw the two cars use pit strategy to get out front or simply be in position to capitalize on others’ mistakes. Contrast that with Dale Earnhardt Jr. He led 433 laps over 17 races in 2007 but only led 1 lap in the final 15% of any race. Whether it was engine failure, crashes, or simply losing the handling on the car, Earnhardt wasn’t around at the end of races last year and as a result went winless. Here is the top ten drivers with the most laps led in the final 15% of races for 2007.

[A huge thanks to Mike Forde at NASCAR statistical services for the data]

My theory is that while it doesn’t always pay off, the teams that consistently put themselves within striking distance of the lead, or better yet lead laps at the critical point in races will win more races over a season. Later this week I will look at the Close and Late stats for 2008 and who is ready to break through.

I realize this is something new, and a fairly long-winded explanation, but I would love some feedback on this. Is this valuable information or just nonsense? Do certain drivers peak at the end of races, while others lead a lot of hollow laps? Is 15% the right number to measure? Any feedback is appreciated. Look for part II on Friday.

• Cue the Duck Aflac announced they will sponsor Carl Edwards in 2009. Supplemental insurance is extremely important when you break your neck doing a backflip and can’t work. Is something like that covered? I am already predicting a commercial with Edwards and the duck doing flips after a win. Either that or Edwards can take a fake swing at the duck. As part of the contract, the answer to all Aflac trivia questions is now “Carl Edwards”. The deal is also apparently the second richest sponsorship deal behind Amp and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Of course Earnhardt Jr’s deal with Amp is essentially for co-sponsorship, as the #88 hauls in additional cash from the National Guard.

• Bruton Smith bought another track, this time Kentucky Speedway. It’s a good pickup, but with Tony George owning Indiana Avenue and ISC/France Family owning Illinois Avenue, it will be very hard to get the Red Monopoly and build hotels. Since he already owns North Carolina Ave, I would have made a play for Pennsylvania Ave now and Pacific (Northwest) Ave later.

• Tom Bowles of SI.com has an interesting take on Michael Waltrip Racing.
  

  It’s no secret the driver mortgaged his financial future to move ahead with this program and that he took on an investor (Robert Kauffman) in October to salvage the team’s long-term future. But if all three sponsors bail — this is the final year of NAPA’s agreement with the No. 55 — all the investment money in the world won’t keep this program on track. And with a tough economy making sponsorship difficult, this could be the biggest-level program that winds up biting the dust.

  I guess Napa can only make so many self-deprecating commercials about how bad Waltrip runs. I don’t have the inside scoop that Bowles does, but I was surprised by this. Given SI’s credibility, I have to believe there’s some truth, but my guess is that if MWR can keep all three cars inside the top 35 Waltrip can make it work to stay in business.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr had a few interesting comments on the future of JR Motorsports. He’s considering moving his Nationwide team to Cup in 2009. If NASCAR’s second-tier series is just as costly to operate that’s a serious problem for all parties.

  He also had this to say about Martin Truex Jr:
  

  “Why would he want to come drive for me?” Earnhardt Jr. asked. “He’s in good stuff now and he’s going to have great opportunities from other people. And I would never do that to him.”

  To me, that’s a subtle way of saying DEI should be looking for a driver for 2009. Junior was clear that he wouldn’t hire Truex, but if you look at the link to the story it’s titled “Friends don’t let friends drive junk”. That could be interpreted as not hiring Truex for a startup Cup team, or implying that something is already brewing with another top Cup team.

• Just four races after a crew chief shuffle at Ganassi Racing, there is another one this week. Prior to Talladega Jimmy Elledge moved from the #41 car to Juan Pablo Montoya’s #42 team. Now Elledge has left Ganassi and Montoya is not happy. Elledge is pretty well regarded in Cup and will turn up somewhere if he hasn’t already struck a deal. One place that makes sense is JR Motorsports, since Elledge is Earnhardt Jr’s brother-in-law, although that might be too much family even for JRM.

  Meanwhile Brian Pattie moves from the Ganassi Nationwide team to head up the #42 crew. Montoya has one top ten (2nd at Talladega) while Ganassi as an organization only has two all season. Obviously things are not going well at Acronym Racing (That’s CGRwFS for the uninitiated) and Ganassi has already ripped his organization once this year. Instead of shuffling around internal crew chiefs among the teams, it might be time to look outside the organization for a different perspective.

Off the Beaten Path

A chance for me to discuss whatever else is on my mind this week. Hey, if Peter King can write about his lattes every week…

• I don’t get very political, especially in this space, but it’s inescapable right now. I saw a report that the presidential candidates have raised over $900 million dollars. It’s mind boggling and we’re not even to the official presidential race. Worse, the entire point of donating money to a candidate is for them to burn through it. With so many problems in this country and abroad, imagine how many causes a billion dollars could go to.

• I saw Zodiac last weekend. A pretty good thriller/mystery with a lot of good actors too. It’s based on the true story of the Zodiac serial killer in California and focuses on the investigation. Jake Gyllenhal and Mark Ruffalo are both really good. My one complaint was that the movie ended with a postscript. I have a TV that’s at least ten years old and I couldn’t read what it said. Even if I wanted to throw in a spoiler here, I couldn’t.

• Have a great and safe weekend and be sure to get plenty of rest on Saturday night. We’ll all need it on Sunday afternoon.