Trouble in Turn2

The last seven seasons have seen the advent of a youth movement in NASCAR at the Cup level. Young Guns have taken over in large numbers and many have quickly found success. Since 2000 a rookie has won a race in every season except 2004. Going back to 2002 the recent rookie classes have been pretty impressive. 12 of 19 drivers have won races, nine have made a Chase appearance and one has won two championships. Not bad for a wave of drivers that some fans complained were ruining the sport (Toyota and open wheel drivers have since acquired that “honor”). So which rookie class featured the best rookies? It’s a tough decision. I decided to look at the various classes from 2002-2006. I didn’t rate the 2007 class because drivers deserve at least three seasons for a fair assessment. The only reason I included the 2006 class was because it included so many drivers with immediate success it was an exceptional case. This week focuses on the 2003 class. Check out previous reviews: 2002.

2003: Jamie McMurray, Casey Mears, Greg Biffle: 15 combined wins

The 2003 rookie class featured two young drivers for Chip Ganassi, Jamie McMurray and Casey Mears, and the older Greg Biffle who took longer to reach the Cup level but has actually enjoyed the most success.

Jamie McMurray got a headstart on the others in the class by subbing for an injured Sterling Marlin in 2002 and winning in only his second Cup start at Charlotte. Although he didn’t win in his official rookie season, McMurray was steady enough to earn the Rookie of the Year. With multiple Busch wins and a smooth transition to the Cup level, McMurray was proclaimed as a future star. The statement made sense at the time.

Then McMurray had an even better 2004, narrowly missing the Chase but finishing 11th in the final points. Despite not winning he had 9 top 5’s and 23 top 10’s and an average finish of 13.2. He followed that up with another narrow miss at the Chase and a 12th place finish in 2005.

As McMurray’s astonishing win in his second start got smaller in the rearview mirror, most people came to the conclusion that McMurray was good enough to win but lacked a strong enough team. Midway through 2005 he was announced by Roush Racing as the replacement for Mark Martin. After a prolonged contract battle, McMurray was released to drive for Roush in 2006. As things turned out he replaced Kurt Busch, meaning he inherited the 2004 Nextel Cup championship team and a car with 6 wins in the previous two seasons. It looked like the ideal setup for McMurray to give him every chance to win a lot of races.

Instead McMurray has struggled with Roush. In two and a half years he has 19 top tens, five fewer than his 2004 season. One of the few highlights was winning the Pepsi 400 in 2007. He has also gone through four crew chiefs in two plus years.

Casey Mears didn’t have a lot of stock car experience when Chip Ganassi hired him to drive the #41 Target car in 2003. His only prior experience was a full Busch season in 2002. The lack of experience showed as he struggled with consistency in his first two and half seasons. He would have a highlight like winning the pole for the Brickyard in 2004 and then follow it with a string of disappointing finish. As a rookie he suffered 10 DNF’s, mainly from crashes.

Eventually Mears began to acclimatize to stock cars. By 2006 this number was reduced to two. 2005 marked the first time he was a legitimate threat to win races. After strong runs at Texas and Homestead, it was slightly unjust that he didn’t win a race in 2005. He opened 2006 with a 2nd place run at the Daytona 500 and followed it up with two more top tens in the season’s first three events. Unfortunately he didn’t score another top ten until race 15. By then it was too late to realistically think about the Chase. After 2006 he landed a dream ride with Hendrick Motorsports alongside longtime friend Jimmie Johnson. The move did yield Mears’ first and only Cup win, but he again struggled with consistency.

Greg Biffle took more of a traditional path to the Cup level. He was discovered by Benny Parsons running in the lower, regional series and Jack Roush signed him. Biffle won a Truck Series championship in 2000, but didn’t land a Cup ride until he won a second NASCAR title in 2002, this time as Busch champion. He finally landed a full time Cup ride at age 32.

Like Mears, Biffle’s first two seasons were star-crossed. Biffle won the Pepsi 400 at Daytona as a rookie, but also struggled to keep the car off the wall. He won two more races in 2004 at Michigan and Homestead, but still found the wrecker too much.

Biffle’s big breakthrough came in 2005 when he won six races, including 5 of the first 14. He easily made the Chase and fell 32 points shy of winning the title and settled for a tie for second.

Biffle is renowned for his amazing car control, which is probably why he excels at tracks like Darlington (2 wins), Michigan (2 wins) and Homestead (3 wins). Although the wins and Chase appearances have not piled up like they did in 2005, Biffle remains one of the top drivers at the Cup level. He won two races in 2006 and one in 2007 while posting top 15 finishes. The dip in performance was partially due to some personnel changes at Roush. This year he has returned to top form. He already has more top 5’s (6) than his entire 2007 season and again sits in position to make the Chase.

Verdict: One good driver and two decent drivers with a combined 15 career wins. It’s interesting that both Mears and McMurray have taken similar career paths that both stand at a crossroads now. First McMurray and then Mears left Chip Ganassi’s team for powerhouse teams Roush-Fenway and Hendrick Motorsports respectively. Each won a Cup race last year, but it’s clear both were high points instead of breakthroughs. Both are now likely free agents for 2009 (McMurray’s plans are still unannounced) and will likely have to settle for lesser rides. As a rookie class, it’s not fantastic but did produce three solid Cup drivers. Biffle has made one Chase and won 12 races. Mears has one win, but has never finished better than 14th in the points. McMurray has two wins and has never finished in the top ten in points. The class produced solid Cup drivers and no washouts, so at least from the perspective it was good for contributing to NASCAR’s middle class.

The good news for Matt Kenseth is that he is really good at Chicago. The bad news is that despite several dominant performances at the track, he has not won a race there yet. In 2005 he led 176 laps but was pipped at the end by Dale Earnhardt Jr on pit strategy. After a caution with 22 laps left, Kenseth pitted for four tires while Earnhardt Jr beat him out of the pits with a two tire stop. With lapped traffic and others taking two tires, Kenseth couldn’t run Junior down and settled for 2nd. In 2006 he was strong again, leading 112 laps and again led late. This time a charging Jeff Gordon got into the back of Kenseth and spun him out. Kenseth then ran out of fuel to finish 22nd. Last year he only led one lap but again finished 2nd. He also has two runner-up finishes in the Busch/Nationwide Series to add to the frustration. In the last three races at Chicago Kenseth owns the best driver rating (126.2) among all drivers and his average finish in all seven races is 10.1. The good news is that Kenseth should get another chance to run at the front this weekend.

This year’s race will go under the lights. It is the eleventh current Cup track to host a race under the lights and is the 13th race of the season. I love night races: the sparks, the faster speeds and additional grip all add something to the race. Having Sunday afternoons cleared is also nice. When places like Charlotte, Bristol, Richmond and Daytona first began running night races, there was a novelty to it and made these events stand out against the rest of the schedule. The problem is when is it overkill? Over a third of the season is now at night. Obviously for places like Phoenix, Daytona, Fontana and Chicago it is a lot more comfortable for fans at night (I can vouch for that in Phoenix), but at the same time it seems like all the new tracks are very quick to flip on the lights.

What Happened Last Year

Jimmie Johnson led 82 laps and was the best car on the track until a flat tire sent him into the outside wall. That opened the door for Tony Stewart to win his first race of 2007. It was the first of Stewart’s three wins over the next month and a half and pushed him into the thick of the Chase race.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Brian Vickers Red Bull has really found something in their intermediate program. Vickers was a top 5 car at Charlotte, Pocono and Michigan. He is getting really close to winning.

Chump: Clint Bowyer RCR is lacking juice on the 1.5 mile tracks this year.

Sleeper: Casey Mears Last year’s pole winner, Mears has never started lower than 12th in five races. He has one top 5 and two top 10’s. He also won the 2006 Busch race.

Who Will Win?

Not only has Kenseth excelled at Chicago, he has run very well since May. He has seven top 10’s in 8 races, including three top 5’s. Kenseth almost always delivers at tracks that fit his style. His 3rd place finish at Michigan proved that again. He will finally break through at Chicago this weekend, granted he watches out for Jeff Gordon on his tail. How about a darkhorse to keep an eye on? Let’s go with Kasey Kahne.

I’m a little late to the party (who comes on time to parties anyway?), but here’s a few thoughts, observations and questions about Mark Martin’s plan to run for the 2009 Championship with Hendrick Motorsports.

For the first 270 laps, Sunday’s race at New Hampshire was pretty tame. The leaders maintained comfortable leads with ease, the top ten positions didn’t change much and barring problems, cars were pretty much locked into a comfortable position and no one was passing. Then a caution came out when Jamie McMurray plowed through Dale Earnhardt Jr and suddenly all hell broke loose. The top drivers pitted while eight other cars stayed out, led by Kurt Busch. Tony Stewart, the dominant car for the day, pitted for two tires and was relegated to 14th on the restart. With one caution plus a pending storm it was pretty obvious that the final results had been turned upside down.

That set up a wild finish, but it wasn’t done yet. Kurt Busch jumped out on the restart, but had to battle lapped car Robby Gordon and nearly hit the outside wall. A few laps later Sam Hornish spilt Clint Bowyer to bring out the caution. Juan Pablo Montoya took the chance to controversy.

“[Busch] hit me under caution, he hit me under green and I retaliated. Did I go a little bit too far retaliating? Yeah. I told them[NASCAR officials] the only reason I did that was I was defending myself.

Somehow Busch tried to play coy and absolve himself from blame.

I got a run on him earlier and I got on the outside and he kind of kept coming up a little bit. I didn’t turn down into him and just barely touched his quarter panel. Then I got by him in three and four and he run me up the race track in the left rear. Then we came to that caution flag and he thought he beat me to the caution flag and I was just trying to get around the 40 (Dario Franchitti) car, who was in front of us there and touched him on the door and he just turned left and spun me down the front straight away. I don’t know what his beef is, but obviously NASCAR should probably fix it.

Montoya was penalized 2 laps for rough driving, dropping his final position to 32nd. His admission that the hit was intentional (which was pretty obvious on the replay) will probably cost Montoya some money, more points and probation for the remainder of the season. Montoya wasn’t going to make the Chase and is not broke so in my mind that biggest penalty is actually the probation. Why? It means Montoya won’t be able to partake in Facewashing with Harvick 2 at Watkins Glen this year. Comparing the Loudon incident with the quasi-fisticuffs from last made me realize something else. Montoya’s favorite expression, “I don’t appreciate that.” That’s getting worked into my everyday phrases. That or “My name is Juan Pablo Montoya, you killed my top 15, prepare to die.”

Some Random thoughts while avoiding the 90+ degree heat

• Bill Weber used “Strategery” when discussing pit stops. Even if it was for comedic value, it fizzled. Later he mentioned that Stewart could become the first driver to sweep the weekend and ended with a grumpy, “there’s a stat for ya’”. What’s wrong with stats? They never did anything to you. Maybe he was just sour today.

• Where was Roush? The fact that the TNT announcers called it a rebound when none of the five drivers were in the top ten is an indictment of how bad they were today.

• Casey Mears had a nice run before slipping at the end. In one sense I’m glad he didn’t score a surprising win because it spared us all headlines and nonsense about how he was more motivated this week. He still managed a top ten in back to back races for the first time this year. Watch out for Mears next weekend at Daytona. He’s good on restrictor plates and nearly won the race last year.

• By the way, Kurt Busch won the race.

• Michael Waltrip scored his first top five finish since 2005 (5th place at Pocono). It’s a huge boost not only for his effort to stay inside the top 35, but also for his sponsorship status with Napa.
  

  I’m not emotional about this, other than the fact to say it’s amazing that NAPA Auto Parts is still on my car after what we went through the last couple years. Just to do anything good for them, outside front row at Daytona, to have a finish like we did today, I just want to say thank you to them by doing well. That’s my goal, is to do good for them.

  Waltrip is often portrayed as a shill, but he really does get it. For all of his struggles in team ownership, he somehow still has large sponsors at least through this year, and he obviously realizes how fortunate he is. As an aside, Waltrip pitted two laps later than Kurt Busch and it would have been interesting to see how things would have ended without the rain stoppage.

• Question: Can you use “McMurray tried to drive through me” as a valid excuse for hitting the commitment cone on pit road?

For more racing news and opinion peep Racing Nation.

Elevators and Imitators

Eleven races into the season is almost one third of the way home. Some teams are exceeding expectations while others are underachieving. That’s obvious enough. While the points show one picture, the driver ratings can reveal some differences. A driver with a high driver rating shows

Carl Edwards is 4th in driver rating but sits in 7th place in the standings. Obviously without the 100 point penalty Edwards would be 4th in points. Jeff Gordon is 10th in points but owns the 7th best driver rating. A mechanical failure at Daytona and a nasty crash at Las Vegas erased otherwise strong runs at these tracks. It highlights how damaging engine failures and bad finishes can be to a driver’s points. Outperforming your points total is a good sign for the rest of the summer. I fully expect both Edwards and Gordon to climb higher in the standings and score more top 5’s.

Jeff Burton is second in the points but 8th in driver rating. It’s pretty clear that Burton’s great start is due more to compiling points and avoiding trouble than it is having fast, dominant cars. Avoiding trouble is obviously a testament to Burton’s skill, but it’s harder to sustain than simply running in the top five every week. Every driver will lose an engine, get caught up in a wreck or get a flat tire at the wrong time. Making your own luck by having top five cars every week is a lot more reliable than trying to outlast everyone and sneaking into the top ten or top five.

Elevators: Drivers with the biggest positive differences between points and driver rating
Casey Mears +6
Elliott Sadler +5
Dave Blaney +5
Matt Kenseth +4

Imitators: Drivers with the biggest negative differences between points and driver rating
David Gilliland -7
Clint Bowyer -6
Jeff Burton -6
Bobby Labonte -5
Travis Kvapil -4

The numbers give a decent snapshot of who is running well compared to finishing well. Maybe over or underachieving is the wrong word. Drivers deserve credit for passing as many cars as they can, with whatever method they can. The only point of these numbers is to get a glimpse of which drivers are capable of a strong summer or who might be ripe for a tumble.

Things can obviously change. The CoT is far from perfected, so there is a great opportunity for teams to find new advantages. Burton and RCR could suddenly find something in a test that pushes their cars closer to the front. Or maybe, in the copycat world of NASCAR, everyone might simply catch up to Gibbs and Roush and even the playing field. Younger drivers will likely gain more confidence and experience which could lead to better results. An older driver might get a new crew chief that rejuvenates a team. A team that suffers from bad luck suddenly feels the need to change personnel, resulting in even worse performances. There are tons of variables that could change the numbers.

So who do you think could climb the ladder or go down the chute this summer?

After the tire debacle at Atlanta, things can only be better at Texas right? As the tour returns to a high-speed 1.5 mile track, questions remain about the tires. There is a lot of pressure on Goodyear to find a softer, more competitive tire while at the same time retaining the safety. Public opinion wasn’t helped when NASCAR declined Texas Motorspeedway president Eddie Gossage’s invitation for an additional tire test. If things aren’t improved at Texas, it would be embarrassing for NASCAR and Goodyear.

Hopefully that’s the last mention of tires this weekend, so let’s move on to the race itself. In its short history, Texas Motorspeedway has certainly had a rich story. A lap one wreck took out a fourth of the field in the first race. Weepers (and you thought it was a new term at California). Threatened Lawsuits. Jackmen attacking drivers. And that’s only over fourteen races and eleven years of existence.

The Entry List

• Mark Martin returns to the #8 car after his spring break. No he wasn’t at Senor Frogs (although I haven’t verified that).
• Kyle Petty is replaced in the #45 car by Chad McCumbee. More on the Petty situation tomorrow.
• Ken Schrader and Emeril Racing (BAM!) said, “Sike! We’re not going to enter Texas.”
• Schrader might not go racing at Texas, but Burney Lamar is. So to the fans yearning for Burney, be sure to catch Friday’s practice session because making the race is a long shot.

Last Year’s Race

Jeff Burton led the final two laps after a tough battle with Matt Kenseth to nab his only win of 2007. However, as is often the case, the big talk that Monday morning was not about the winner. The wreck involving Dale Earnhardt Jr and Kyle Busch while they slowed for a caution grabbed the headlines. Busch left so Earnhardt stuck around and drove the #5 car for a few laps. I still believe this was unrelated to the later events that saw Earnhardt replace Busch at Hendrick, but it was all anyone wanted to talk about during the week. Both drivers have obviously adaptied to the changes well.

Who runs well?

• Tony Stewart-Won the 2006 fall race and has the best driver rating (109.3) over the last six Texas races.
• Matt Kenseth-He has led 374 laps at Texas and has led at least one lap in 9 of the last 10 races.
• Denny Hamlin-He has four top tens in five career starts. It could have been five for five. He was leading the race last fall when he got loose racing Kenseth too hard and hit the wall.
• Martin Truex Jr-Won the fall 2007 pole and has a 95.7 driver rating in five career starts. So far this year he has not been near the front like the way he ended 2007.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr-He got his first career Cup win at Texas in 2000 and also has seven top tens in 11 tries. I’ll bet anyone a billion dollars that win gets mentioned on Sunday along with some kind of parallel to his first win with Hendrick Motorsports if he is leading at any point in the race.

Fantasy Picks

Champs
Kurt Busch has done almost everything but win at Texas. That includes wrecking former teammate Greg Biffle two years ago that incited a near catfight between the significant others. When he stays on the track the #2 team has had several strong runs only to unravel in the pits.

Chumps
This week the Chumps list is extremely difficult to interpret. Eight of the top 11 Texas driver ratings belong to drivers in this category. Three others, Kasey Kahne Ryan Newman and Jeff Burton have won at Texas. The other two on the list, Clint Bowyer and Kevin Harvick, have had good runs at other intermediate tracks this year. Since his win at Daytona, Newman has one top ten (California).

Sleepers
Casey Mears really likes Texas. In eight career races he has 2 top fives and four top tens. Both numbers are tops for Mears at any track. Racing luck and misfortune have hindered his point standing so far this year, but the cars have been pretty good.

Who will win? Tony Stewart has watched his teammates win two of the last three races. Now it’s his turn. Wouldn’t it be great if he peeled off his firesuit and he had a message waxed in his back hair? Something like “Suck it Goodyear”. [I’m the only one?]

After five races everyone wants to ask, “What’s Wrong with Hendrick Motorsports?”

Nothing.

Sorry, you’re still there? Ok, here’s more evidence.

Hendrick Motorsports jumped way out in front with the CoT in 2007. They won 16 total races including 12 in the CoT. With any type of new aero-package or new car a handful of teams will figure it out first. In 2005 it was Roush and Hendrick that figured out the smaller spoiler and softer tire package. Then in 2006 and 2007 the other teams caught up with that aero-package. It wasn’t as much about Roush and Hendrick stumbling as everyone else catching on.

The same thing is happening with the CoT. Hendrick jumped way out in front because they were the first to hit on a setup that allowed their drivers more comfort than most. Now other teams have figured that out. In the copycat world of sports, it’s a lot easier to catch up than it is to continue finding new advances.

The other reason Hendrick is returning to the pack is simple regression to the mean. It’s hard to sustain the dominance they enjoyed last year. Races are often won from opportunity. Look at the different ways Hendrick cars won last year. Kyle Busch watched the top two Gibbs cars falter at Bristol and Busch held on for the win. Look at some of the races Jeff Gordon won in 2007. A perfectly timed pit stop gave him the late lead at Phoenix. Engineers are still working on the reason why Gordon’s engine didn’t blow up at Darlington, let alone how it could go fast enough for the #24 car to win. Again at Pocono Gordon didn’t have the fastest car, but took advantage of pit strategy and pending rain to parlay track position into another win. Jimmie Johnson scored a win at Atlanta by surviving the carnage on the penultimate restart.

That’s five races Hendrick cars won that normally would have gone to other teams. In fact, in all five races Denny Hamlin and Gibbs Racing could have made a case as deserving winners. Five fortuitous wins in a season is incredible, but it’s impossible to sustain that kind of racing luck.

This year the Hendrick teams are still strong, but the results aren’t as eye-popping as recent years:

• Jeff Gordon’s 102.9 driver rating is 4th best through five races. He had mechanical failure at Daytona, finished 3rd at Fontana, made a mistake and wrecked at Las Vegas, scored a top ten at Atlanta and ground out an eleventh at Bristol.

• Jimmie Johnson’s 89.9 rating is below his normal standards, but is ranked 11th. He had excellent runs at Daytona, California and Bristol but a wreck at Daytona and a flat tire at Bristol hurt the final finishes. He currently sits in 13th place in the points despite only one top ten finish. The only concern is how poorly Johnson ran at both Las Vegas and Atlanta. Given the fact that this kind of track makes up a large portion of the Cup schedule, it needs addressing. That said, after being the most consistent driver of the last four years I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt that he’ll bounce back.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr (99.9 driver rating) has three top fives and four top tens in five races. His only bad result was a matter of getting clipped by a spinning Casey Mears at California. He sits 5th in the standings and won two non-points races during Daytona Speedweeks.

• Casey Mears sits in 33rd place in the points. Compared to his teammates, that’s a mighty struggle, but look at where he was last year at this time. Last year Mears had a new team and crew chief and Mears himself was adjusting to Hendrick Motorsports. After five races Mears was languishing in 26th place. This year he is again adjusting to a new crew and crew chief in Alan Gustafson. Sure Earnhardt Jr had to adjust to a new team too, but he is familiar with Tony Eury Jr and let’s be real, Mears and Earnhardt are in different classes.

The season is far from over and all it takes is a recent history lesson to see the potential for the rest of the season. In 2005 Joe Gibbs Racing had a disastrous start filled with blown engines, broken wheels, flat tires, oil fires and wrecks through the first fourteen races. Tony Stewart was winless while teammates Bobby Labonte and Jason Leffler struggled to finish races. Similar questions were asked about what was wrong with the Gibbs teams. Then in mid-summer something clicked and Stewart reeled off an amazing hot streak that included 5 wins, 14 top 5’s and 19 top 10’s in the final 21 races. He won the Nextel Cup, Labonte turned in solid runs down the stretch and the #11 car managed to regroup with a prospect named Denny Hamlin at the wheel.

Hendrick has all of the necessary pieces to do something similar. Johnson, Gordon and Earnhardt are all in position to each win multiple races and make the Chase. Mears bounced back last year to post strong runs including his first Cup win. Hendrick teams have won a minimum of eight races a year since 2003 and there is no reason to believe they won’t match that in 2008.

For more NASCAR opinions and news check out Racing Nation

Go fast or go home. It’s a phrase no team wants mentioned in conjunction with their cars. With only one race to go before 2008 owner points take effect, the top 35 picture is taking shape. For new teams inside the top 35 it means a guaranteed starting spot. Likewise, the teams that have not cracked the top 35 in 2008 owner points will have to qualify on speed for one of the final eight transfer spots. Once the top 35 gets set after Bristol, the chances of entering or exiting that safe haven decrease each week. That places immense pressure on this week’s race for teams that need to either hang on or move up. Holding the crucial fifth race at the potentially volatile Bristol track makes it even more tense. You can be sure nine or ten teams will be packing extra heartburn medicine this weekend.

Two teams have already locked themselves in for race six at Martinsville. Kurt Busch and Brian Vickers could fail to qualify for Bristol(Busch has a provisional anyway) and still have enough points to stay in the top 35. For other drivers it is less fun. Only 86 points separate 31st through 39th. It sounds like a lot, but making a race guarantees 34 points. If a car currently inside the top 35 like Michael Waltrip misses the race, that opens the door for another outside the top 35.

Right now JJ Yeley sits in the final spot in the top 35 safety zone. He is only 18 points ahead of 36th place Sam Hornish Jr, which is the difference of six places, less with five bonus points for leading a lap. 5 teams that will make the Bristol race due to their 2007 owners points are currently outside the top 35 based on 2008 owners points. The #01, #22, #40, #45, #77 all face the possibility of squandering their early season fortune.

All four rookies currently sit outside the top 35. Sam Hornish Jr, Dario Franchitti, Regan Smith and Patrick Carpentier sit in 36th, 38th, 39th and 46th respectively. Smith is the only driver that has previously raced at Bristol and that could provide an advantage. The tight confines of Bristol pose a much different challenge and smaller margin for error than the wider and bigger speedways the tour raced at the last three weeks.

It’s also interesting that the open wheelers are all struggling mightily. Hornish Jr had a top 15 at Daytona but then wrecked in his next two starts. Franchitti hasn’t wrecked, but simply run at the tail of the field every week. Patrick Carpentier and AJ Allmendinger haven’t qualified for races and sinking their chances before they even had a chance to crash on Sundays. All of this makes Juan Pablo Montoya’s debut even more impressive. At the same point last year Montoya was safely inside the top 35 and scored a top five at Atlanta.

The rookie struggles means, strange as it sounds, that a driver with zero Cup starts could wind up as Rookie of the Year. The #00 has a nice points cushion thanks to David Reutimann making every race so far. After Martinsville, Reutimann will shift to the #44 (also inside the top 35) and rookie Michael McDowell will take the wheel of the #00. He won’t set the world on fire, but he could be the only rookie with a guaranteed starting spot each week.

Rookies, open-wheelers, and open-wheel rookies aren’t the only teams that will need a second coat of Old Spice this weekend. Michael Waltrip Racing currently has all three cars locked inside the top 35, although the #44 and #55 are toeing the edge of the cliff. After a nightmare 2007 debut, Waltrip has rebounded but there is still one more race for each car to make.

Further up in the points are two drivers from marquee teams. Casey Mears in 30th place and Jamie McMurray in 31st are each one bad Bristol crash from plunging into serious danger. Both are top 20 drivers in top 10 equipment, but can’t seem to garner their deserved finishes. It’s one thing to struggle, but another thing entirely to flirt with the top 35.

On the other end of the spectrum is Kyle Petty. He has made every race, but he sits 40th in the points and needs a lot of help or a spectacular run at Bristol to keep his guaranteed starting spot. His teammate Bobby Labonte has been very competitive each week, but Petty has not finished better than 32nd. His 28.5 driver rating exemplifies the team’s struggles. For Petty Enterprises this year it’s one step forward (#43 car) and one backward.

All in all, the bottom 35 is filled with interesting stories. What happens at Bristol will have consequences for the concerned parties for the rest of the year.

Last Week’s Caption Contest Winner

Thanks to everyone that submitted captions. The winner is John. He wins a $20 gift certificate to use at Whatever Sports.

Three races is apparently enough time to declare a slump for Hendrick Motorsports. Seriously. It’s getting a little carried away, but thanks to some research I’ve uncovered the reasons for the team’s “struggles”.

• 10. The Jimmie Johnson cloning project is experiencing technical difficulties.

• 9. It’s Leap Year, everyone knows Hendrick cars never run well in leap years.

• 8. The season supply of Amp hasn’t cleared customs yet.

• 7. The Curse of the Shrub.

• 6. NASCAR secretly switched Jeff Gordon’s cars with Robby Gordon’s.

• 5. Chad Knaus’ New Year’s resolution was to not work the gray area.

• 4. Jeff Gordon wears a Winnorette patch to help him quit winning.

• 3. They won a Nationwide race, what more do you want?

• 2. Team orders: Only Casey Mears can take the checkers.

• 1. Junior is simply building the suspense.

Don’t forget to enter the contest to win a $20 gift certificate to Whatever Sports.

Cleanup in Aisle 2. First it rained all weekend, spoiling practice, qualifying, Happy Hour, the Nationwide race and delayed the Cup race. Then, even before the cars take the green flag, Michael Waltrip donated all the oil from his car to the track’s surface. Water, oil, quick-dry, plus a green track made for a dangerous racing surface. First Denny Hamlin and then Casey Mears quickly found out how dicey the track was. After Mears’ wreck collected Dale Earnhardt Jr, Sam Hornish Jr and Reed Sorenson NASCAR decided to throw the red flag to see what was making cars slip and slide. It was probably a little late by then. Both Hamlin and Earnhardt were frustrated that NASCAR decided to start the race before the track was clean.

The first red flag lasted an hour and also marked a record for most uses of the word seeping. Then the cars raced for 65 more laps, although with five cautions included it was hardly racing. And then it rained again. A lot. Like the entire length of the Academy Awards (At least Jon Stewart brought his A-game). And now it’s too late to watch the race, even for a West Coast fan. A full View From the Couch will have to wait until tomorrow.

A few thoughts on the race, the CoT and the television coverage that I was able to formulate in between raindrops and yellow flags falling:

• We have an early leader for strangest quote of the season. Grand Marshall Brad Garrett took a shot at Kyle Busch during the prerace. Before the most famous words in motorsports, he said there was a missing two-year-old somewhere in Busch’s ears. Was this provoked? Does Shrub not love Raymond? The whole thing was bizarre.

• Juan Pablo Montoya’s Juicy Fruit commercial is hilarious. It’s over the top and anytime people can make fun of themselves is great.

  “I’m not your puppet.”

• Kasey Kahne and Gillet Evernham Motorsports have things straightened out.

• The teams that typically run well at California, did. No surprise there. The true effects of the CoT and its potential for leveling the playing field won’t be felt for at least one or two full seasons. Until then, Hendrick, Gibbs, Roush and RCR are the class of the field.

• Overheating was a widespread problem from debris in the grills. In 2004, the first year of the California Labor Day race, the big story was the hot dog wrapper infestation (I thought Californians recycled?). Today it was trash from everywhere getting caught on grills. I’m wondering if this poses a bigger problem for the CoT? With the large gap on the front of the CoT there is a big area for debris to get stuck. Factor in the cables that support the splitter and there it appears easy for debris to get caught. For all of the testing these cars do, factors like how debris affects the car on long green flag runs is probably not simulated.

• Temperature issues aside, the CoT looked pretty similar to the old car as far as the racing was concerned. It wasn’t a dud, but in 87 laps of intermittent racing, it was hard to tell if it was an improvement either.

• Finally, I hate rain delays.