Trouble in Turn2

Finally.

Dale Earnhardt Jr returned to Victory Lane in a Cup race. The last time Dale Earnhardt Jr won a Cup points race, Bill Clinton was in office. Or at least some people made it seem like it had been that long. The way Junior’s 2008 has gone, he could actually have multiple wins by now. He’s been a top five car nearly every week. It also doesn’t matter that he won on fuel mileage. They all count. The whole object of a race is to get to the front at the right time. Part of the reason the #88 team could gamble on fuel was their position in the standings. In prior seasons Earnhardt Jr has been near the bottom of the Chase standings and couldn’t afford a 25th place finish. With their 3rd place position it opens up more opportunities to take risks, which is exactly how they won on Sunday. Compare that with some of the other teams fighting for a Chase spot like Kevin Harvick, David Ragan and Jamie McMurray that were forced to pit under the final caution.

Not everyone is an Earnhardt Jr fan, but my guess is that the majority of NASCAR fans can appreciate Jr’s win and feel good about it. Put aside the fact that he’s the most popular driver in NASCAR, consider how hard it is to win Cup races. Now look at a few of the races where he’s come tantalizingly close to winning. He’s been wrecked while leading (Talladega 2006, Richmond 2008), had engine failures while running in the top 3 (Indianapolis, Richmond 2007), and been on the other side of the fuel mileage game (Charlotte 2007). It was a deserved, and popular, win.

• Tony Stewart is donating his winnings from Sunday’s race to the Red Cross and specifically the Indiana flood relief. Stewart spent most of the day in the top ten before coming home fifth. That’s a nice $136, 986 check for those in need.

  “I’m happy we got a top-five for everyone in Columbus, Indiana, and that we can do something to help our community out,” Stewart said. “It’s been on my mind all weekend. That’s what this top-five is for. When it’s your own community and your own neighbors, it’s good to generate a good amount of winnings for them.”

  The finish was also Stewart’s first top ten since a 4th place run at Richmond last month.

• I tried the Race Buddy, which is great. You can toggle between different camera views like Pit Road, In-Car, On Track Battles or four angles at once. It’s a poor man’s Hot Pass. The one downside, as my wife pointed out, is that there is no Bill Weber to complain about.

• Matt Kenseth continued his rebound with a 3rd place finish after leading 41 laps. It could have been better if not for his pit road incident with a track official. As Kenseth was leaving his pit, he had to brake when the official was still in front of his car for some reason. It cost him spots on the track that he never made up. Kenseth’s teammate Greg Biffle also had a costly pit road incident. The team was changing two tires but Biffle took off before the front tire changer could clear the car and was almost hit. Unfortunately the move also was a penalty because the air gun was left on the wrong side of the car. It was another top five run for Biffle, spoiled by a team mistake.

• Red Bull Racing’s intermediate program is really coming alive. Not only did Brian Vickers have one of the strongest cars in the race but AJ Allmendinger was also strong (79.7 driver rating) before getting shuffled back at the end. The team is still growing and needs improvement on the shorter tracks, but is one of the big stories of the last month. Now Allmendinger heads to Sonoma with a very good chance of scoring his first top ten finish.

• Kyle Petty noted how many races have come down to pit strategy with the new car. That’s true, but I think it has less to do with the car itself and more from the timing of the cautions. With track position at an even greater premium and crew chiefs unsure how even the best car will handle in traffic, getting to the front is now paramount.

• The win was Chevy’s first at Michigan since 2001.

• 18 different drivers have won Cup races since Earnhardt Jr’s last Cup win in 2006.

• The race lasted 2 hours 47 minutes. Last week’s race at Pocono last 4 hours.


For more racing news and opinion check out Racing Nation.

I’m always a little confused about Michigan. The track is wide and features several grooves, so drivers can find a place where their cars work best. Because it’s wide, that also means the passing can be rather easy. So is it a fun race because drivers like it or a dull one because the passing is so easy there aren’t great battles for position?

One thing I know is that when it follows Pocono it feels like the race flies by. It’s kind of like working out at the gym next to a big, ripped guy. Your lack of size is amplified in that setting. Pocono is a race that feels like you could watch the Ten Commandments, run some errands and then paint your bedroom before the checkered flag flies, while Michigan feels like it’s over before you can finish your chips and salsa.With a tendency for long green flag runs, the race often boils down to the final pit stop or fuel mileage.

Track Fun Fact of the Week: According to wikipedia (and who would question something on the internet?), Michigan International Speedway also hosts the Michigan High School cross country championship, presumably in the infield. Imagine how discouraging it would be to be running along, feeling good about your pace and then you look over and see Greg Biffle turn a few hot laps at 190 mph.

What Happened Last Year

Carl Edwards continued Roush Racing’s utter dominance of Michigan. Martin Truex appeared to have a better car in the final segment but couldn’t quite pull in Edwards. The win was the first for Edwards in 52 races, and was especially pleasing to his motorcoach driver Tom “Yeti” Giacchi. He had made a deal with Edwards in 2006 that he wouldn’t shave until Edwards won a race.

Notes and Fantasy Tips

• Roush dominates here. Roush has won ten races and their current drivers are good (Carl Edwards 1 win, 4 top 5’s), better (Greg Biffle 2 wins, 4 top 5’s) and best (Matt Kenseth 1 win, 7 top 5’s). Ford and Dodge have split the two Michigan wins each of the past five seasons.

  Meanwhile a Chevrolet (or Pontiac for that matter) has not won at Michigan since 2001 when Jeff Gordon took the checkers. There isn’t a great reason why the bowtie hasn’t won, just a fluke thing that happens in sports sometimes.

• Sunday is Father’s Day. Jame McMurray and Crown Royal are running a special paint scheme to tribute McMurray’s dad along with a personalized message:

  

  So McMurray isn’t big on words, but the message is clear. Many parents sacrifice a lot for their kids and it’s exponentially true in an expensive, traveling sport like auto racing.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Matt Kenseth Kenseth is outstanding at Michigan (11 top 10’s in 17 starts and a 9.7 avg finish). He won the 2006 August race in dominant fashion. Kenseth got out of the gates slowly this year, but is catching up to his teammates.

Chumps: Jeff Burton Burton has avoided trouble and scored a lot of top tens this year. RCR’s intermediate program is a behind Roush, Gibbs, Hendrick, Evernham and even Penske. Burton will struggle this weekend.[Click for more Chumps notes]

Sleepers: Casey Mears Over the last six Michigan races, Mears has the 11th best driver rating (89.0) and 1 top 5 and two top 10’s. At some point he has to run well, right? Right? [Click for more Sleepers notes]

And the winner is…

The easy method would be to draw a Roush-Fenway-Varitek(the joke never gets old to me) driver’s name out of a hat. In that case Todd Kluever is your man. Apparently my Roush Roster is two years old. So Plan B shows that Jimmie Johnson is the man this weekend. I feel it’s also time to institute the “Dale Jr or Kyle Busch could win on any given Sunday” caveat. One is winless and the other has four wins, but both have run in the top five almost every week and led enough laps to prove that a victory from either would not register a surprise.

• I’m thinking of starting a new game. It’s called Where in the World is Slugger Labbe? Since 2004 crew chief Slugger Labbe has worked for 5 different teams. He’s been a part of two team contractions. It’s easy to lose track. Two weeks ago he was released by Bill Davis Racing when they shut down the struggling #27(formerly known as the struggling #36) car. He’s NASCAR’s answer to Chris Gatling, or Mike Morgan, the ultimate journeyman.

• In other crew chief news, Michael Waltrip is switching Paul Andrews for Bobby Kennedy. You might be thinking, where have I heard Bobby Kennedy’s name before? Hint: The answer rhymes with pet gruel.

• Denny Hamlin spoke to Dustin Long about his fuel pickup issues. By his count he’s lost three races in the last year due to a faulty pickup system. I also remember a 2004 race at Homestead where the same thing happened to Tony Stewart. I have no idea if it’s a similar situation, but it’s interesting. In any event, fuel pickup shouldn’t be a problem this weekend at the virtually flat Martinsville.

• Former driver Ricky Craven went to Iraq and wrote about his experience. It’s a great read and gives a real picture of what the situation really looks like. NASCAR fans have always been patriotic and the military obviously has close ties to the sport, but it’s always nice to have a reminder of what’s really going on. It makes silly gripes about Toyota, the CoT or Goodyear tires look rather small.

• A few newer blogs to check out: Bump Drafts, Blog of Tomorrow, Monte Dutton’s NASCAR This Week

• From the It’s More Fun if it were True category, Jack Roush and Toyota can’t get along. The story was at least partially fabricated by ESPN (which is another obnoxious issue altogether.) It’s Spy vs Spy. Jack is claiming that Ninjas working on behalf of Toyota stole a proprietary Roush part. Of course after the whole oil lid fiasco, Toyota took shots at Roush too. My guess is they stole either Matt Kenseth’s cup holder or Carl Edwards iPod featuring all of his dawgs from Back 40 records.

• If you haven’t already discovered my series of interviews with different bloggers, what better way to pass the weekend than to sidle up to the fireplace with the laptop for some good reading. It’s a chance to learn more about some of the best NASCAR bloggers in their own words. The only thing I’ve done is compiled them all in one place, so even if you think I’m a complete waste of bandwidth, you should check them out.

For the first 263 laps of the UAW-Dodge 400, it was a pretty uneventful afternoon. There were a few crashes, Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth were taking turns leading and the race was moving along at a nice, if tame, pace. Then with one restart things got crazy. Dale Earnhardt Jr spun his tires which caused Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon to change lanes and eventually led to Gordon spinning Kenseth. Then Greg Biffle bumped Gordon towards the inside retaining wall and a scary crash. Edwards then held off Junior and Biffle to claim the win, and fail post-race inspection, but the crash was what stood out. “That’s probably the hardest I’ve ever hit and you know it was my fault,” Gordon said after race. Coming from the driver that survived scary crashes at Pocono and Lowe’s in the last two years, that’s saying something.

Gordon’s wreck was forceful, but he was able to walk away. The initial reaction was that the car did its job, but it also raised questions about the inside walls and converting them to SAFER barriers as well. I also don’t understand why the inside wall would have a bay that juts in and increases that chances of a car hitting the corner straight on. Gordon was fortunate not to strike the wall squarely. Who knows what could have happened then.

Speaking of hard hits, Tony Stewart suffered one hitting the outside wall. It looked like a typical crash–not that there is ever a “typical” crash–that we see most weekends, but Stewart took a long time to climb out of his car and then walked very gingerly. The safety devices did the job in both Gordon’s and Stewart’s wrecks, but can more be done?

• Dale Earnhardt Jr made a suggestion regarding the tires that makes some sense:

  “The tire is a little hard, I am curious as to whether we could bring a softer tire and not have wear problems. If that was possible, I would love that. Give us just a tiny bit of left side grip for the center of the corner, just a tiny bit. I think the track here has aged enough that can explore that and see what is up. They are doing the right thing, trying to be cautious on that stuff.

  “At the test in the winter time when the track has not got rubber down, you are going to wear tires out. So it would be great to do tire testing right after these races, you would get a good idea what kind of tire you got.

  Not only would it give better feedback in race conditions, it would also eliminate any advantage for teams attending the tire tests in the winter. Of course the problems would be keeping the crews at the track for an extra day, especially a west coast track like Las Vegas.

• Chevy hasn’t won in the last four point races dating back to Homestead. It is the longest drought since September 2004 when Ford and Dodge won four races.

• Hat tip to Ken Schrader for running on the lead lap for the entire day. He finished 21st, the best finish for BAM Racing since Mike Bliss posted a 17th at Bristol almost a full year ago.

• When was the last time the #48 team missed the setup? They’ve had races where they struggled or suffered poor finishes from crashes, but in the last two years Jimmie Johnson it would be hard to find more than one or two races where the team was out to lunch.

• If not for the late spin by Kenseth, Roush-Fenway may have placed four of their five drivers inside the top 10. Edwards won, Biffle was third and the rapidly improving David Ragan came home 6th. Edwards, Kenseth and Biffle also posted the top three driver ratings for the day.

• Both Haas-CNC cars spent the first 150 laps in the top 15 and Riggs top 10, then within 15 minutes both were involved in accidents. Jeremy Mayfield was able to change tires and continue his strong run to finish 16th, but Riggs wasn’t as fortunate. He spent 147 laps in the top ten, but could only manage a 36th place finish for his effort.

• The top 35 puzzle is starting to fill in. Right now five cars have entered the top 35 in owners points: Kurt Busch (12th), Brian Vickers (13th), and all three MWR cars (David Reutimann 30th, Dale Jarrett 32nd and Michael Waltrip 33rd). The five displaced teams are Dario Franchitti (36th), Robby Gordon (37th), Sam Hornish Jr (38th), Regan Smith (39th), and Kyle Petty (40th). The difference from 32nd to 40th is only 53 points, so things could change a lot in the next two weeks, but for the bubble teams with only two automatic berths left, it is officially time to begin sweating.

For more NASCAR news, statistics and opinions go to Racing Nation.

“Oh, yeah. I don’t know what happened. The 99 wasn’t very good last night, he was so-so and we were really good, and then the weather just swapped it.”
–Greg Biffle on the difference from Sunday to Monday.

It’s funny how cars can change overnight with different track conditions. Some of the changes were subtle. Jeff Gordon and Kyle Busch were probably the two fastest cars on Sunday night, but not quite as good on a sunny day. Carl Edwards was showing signs of speed when the rain came last night, but was faster than everyone during the day. Other drivers like Clint Bowyer and Kurt Busch were completely lost during the day. So what else happened?

• For the majority of Speedweeks, all the praise was saved for Hendrick and Gibbs. Last week the big story was how Dodge was finally ready to compete. Now headlines will note how the Roush cars are the ones to beat on the downforce tracks. Next week it will be another team or manufacturer, so let’s all keep things in perspective. It’s very early in the season.

• I wonder how drivers like Dale Earnhardt Jr, Reed Sorenson and Denny Hamlin felt when they woke up today? Usually when you wreck and have a poor finish, at least it’s over when by the next day and you can look towards the next weekend. Today they all had to get back in battered cars with the knowledge that they wouldn’t improve their finishes at all. It’s probably even worse considering how good the weather and track were on Monday morning and realizing that the wrecks wouldn’t have happened today. Well, that and seeing Casey Mears and Sam Hornish have the chance to go to Vegas early.

• It wasn’t a huge success, but the two Yates cars had nice runs. Travis Kvapil used a two-tire pit strategy to sit in 2nd place for over 12 hours. So eleven and half of those hours were during a red flag, but Kvapil actually did have a nice run going before he suffered damage on his car. He spent 71 laps inside the top 15 before his accident. Teammate David Gilliland finished a solid 17th. Excluding restrictor plate races, Gilliland only had 4 top 20’s all of last year. Getting support from Roush-Fenway Racing at least has Yates pointed in the right direction.

• It’s interesting that the big fear was that this was the year of Toyota’s big breakout. Take out the Gibbs cars and Brian Vickers and the Camrys look pretty normal. It’s still up to the teams to build good handling cars and have good drivers. None of the three MWR cars finished on the lead lap, Dave Blaney finished in the 30’s for the second straight race, and JJ Yeley had engine problems and finished 29th. Denny Hamlin has also crashed in the first two races and sits 31st in the standings.

• After the race, Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson had some interesting things to say about the CoT on intermediate tracks. First Gordon:

  I was very curious and anticipating a little bit more action out there. You know, right now I think what you’ve got is you’ve got some guys that are really hitting it with this car on this track and some that weren’t. So it kind of spread the field out a little bit.
  Plus, you know, track position on these big tracks is extremely important. Jimmie and I are both fortunate to capitalize on the points from last year. But going forward, we’re going to have to really make sure we qualify good.

  Interesting. It sounds a lot like the old car, which as everyone knows wasn’t always conducive to great racing. That point is emphasized by Johnson’s quote.

  The other thing, I noticed the cars were much more sensitive. Racing nose to tail, you’d catch someone, get to a spot, difficult to run behind him. If the guy in front of you was smart, just look in the mirrors, he could run your line, screw you up, you’d lose 20 car lengths. Seemed to me like the aero was more important in this car than the other car. It’s still the first downforce race we’ve had with it. I’m sure we’ll all make it better. As Jeff said, track position was extremely important even more so than in the past.

  As Johnson admits, it’s the first race and things will probably improve. But what does it say when the two of the top three finishers of the race aren’t convinced that this car will improve the actual racing.

• One lingering thought about yesterday’s rain delay. A lot of sports will show classic footage to pass the time. Fox and Speed are in the same ownership family, how about rolling out some old races? If all else fails get Junior to host and just have an impromptu Back in the Day session.

• The top nine spots in the Nationwide race went to Cup drivers. Tenth went to Stephen Leicht in the #21 Childress car. He’s only running a limited schedule, but Leicht has already won a Busch/Nationwide race and is in one of the top rides in the series. This is his third season in the second tier of NASCAR, but he is still only 21. Keep an eye on him this year and beyond.

• We couldn’t even make it two races before the first Silly Season rumor dropped. According to Yahoo, Bobby Labonte would move to Richard Childress Racing in a new fourth car in 2009. Lee Spencer disagrees. I won’t go so far to say Labonte can’t or won’t wind up at RCR, but consider this: One of the articles quotes Kevin Harvick talking about expanding to a fourth car and hints at Labonte rumors. Spencer’s article has a direct quote from Childress denying the rumor. Things change with time, but I’m more inclined to believe Spencer, especially with her track record and the fact that Yahoo has been erroneous in the past (Jr and Truex to drive for Jr Motorsports, anyone?). I don’t like rumors, especially in February. Who knows what will happen in 36 races?

For more racing news and opinion, check out Racing Nation.

What a way to get your first win in 81 races. And not a bad race to choose either. Ryan Newman gets a well-deserved and popular win (how about that burnout, or was it a smokeout?). The difference came down to a battle of teammates, and the two Penske cars got a better bump draft than the Gibbs cars, who had a bigger gap between them.

On the surface the success by the Dodge teams looks like a big surprise, but all of the Dodge teams have made gains on restrictor plate tracks in recent years. Kurt Busch had a top 5 driver rating at three of the four plate races in 2007. Ryan Newman nearly won the 2006 Daytona 500 had fellow Dodge driver Casey Mears gone with him. Evernham placed two drivers in the top ten in last year’s Daytona 500. Ganassi’s Reed Sorenson finished in the top five in each of his Daytona races this week. They didn’t lead a lot of laps but were all around at the right time and got good finishes. 6 of the top 10 and 8 of the top 15.

California will be a big test for all the teams, but especially Dodge. Penske cars ran well last year at intermediates, but can GEM and Ganassi find consistent speed? That is the bigger test.

Random Thoughts and Notes

• As I mentioned last week I had a soccer game meaning the race was watched on tape delay. I saw the first 8 laps live, left the house and then had to spend the rest of the afternoon avoiding all of my favorite websites, email and even my cell phone to successfully escape the NASCAR world temporarily. If you’ve ever taped a race, you know how tempting it is to look up the winner.

• The Gibbs cars combined to lead 136 of the 200 laps. Obviously a restrictor plate race is different than other tracks, but that doesn’t bode well for pure horsepower for the other manufacturers. Chevy led 31, Dodge 23, Toyota (Non-Gibbs Division) 5, and Ford led 8. Let’s not get carried away yet and crown the Gibbs drivers. Hendrick, Roush and RCR will have something to say over the next three weeks about speedway supremacy.

• Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin (and you could probably throw in Tony Stewart too) are going to have a blow up at some point this season. It will most likely come when they are fighting for the lead in the first third of a race. The team is not going to implode as the Fox booth alluded to, but there will be an incident.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr had the second best driver rating (115.6), hung out in the top 5 all day and looked fairly strong in the nighttime. The one thing missing was any semblance of teammates.

• Other notable finishes: Bobby Labonte narrowly missed a top 10 in 11th. After getting hung out to dry, Jeff Burton sunk to 13th place. Sam Hornish Jr finished 15th and had a very impressive 90.1 driver rating. In his final Daytona 500 Dale Jarrett finished 16th. That’s his best finish since an 11th at Atlanta two years ago.

• Furniture Row’s Sunday didn’t turn out like their big Thursday. Both cars finished in the 40’s. Don’t feel too bad, the two collected over $500,000 in prize money for the effort. That will go a long way towards paying bills for the small organization.

• Does the CoT signify the end of the Big One? The combination of the wing and the heavier body have kept cars against the wall instead of hurtling back towards the pack. Car after car hit the wall and stuck there. Even my wife asked why the cars weren’t creating huge melees. The more cars that are around at the end of restrictor plate races the better.

• Top five commercials: Amp (Junior fighting a Gorilla), Toyota (kids controlling drivers’ cars with remote controls), NAPA (’90 Bristol Car), Fedex (Hamlin speed-reading), UPS (Dale Jarrett finally races—and wins—in the truck)

  Least favorite: Carl Edwards in the Claritin spot. The product may not cause drowsiness, but its ads do.

• Fox unveiled the new Gopher Cam. It’s a ground level camera in each turn that gives another new perspective. As someone born in Minnesota, I’m all for more exposure for Gophers, but I still prefer the crane cam. There is just something about the sweeping shot of the lead pack through an entire turn.

• If anyone has a connection with a Fox Sports producer, I would love to see one simple change. When a pit road reporter is talking, they highlight their name with a yellow bar on the ticker. My immediate reaction is there’s a caution, then realize it’s merely Krista Voda talking. When I was a youngster, I had the Crayloa 64-color box. Almost any of the other 63 colors would work. How about a nice periwinkle or purple mountain majesty?

[Apologies for the late post. Apparently you have to hit “publish” when you want something show up on the World Wide Web.]

If you need more NASCAR goodness (and who doesn’t?) check out news and opinions over at Racing Nation.

Jeff Burton’s 2007 season was like an Oreo. Crisp and solid on the ends, but soft, gooey and unhealthy in the center. He scored a win at Texas, five top 5’s and 6 top 10’s in the first seven races and finished with 2 top 5’s and 6 top 10’s in the final 8 races. The results sagged in the middle however and Burton couldn’t quite find the top 5’s with the regularity of the first part of the year.

Compared to the low point in his career with Roush from 2002-2004, Burton making his second straight Chase and finishing in the top ten is a good year. Burton also gets his share of praise for his role in RCR’s improvement in the last two seasons.

Off the track RCR and Burton’s primary sponsor AT&T spent the season engaged in a lawsuit with Nextel and NASCAR. Although the team won two appeals to put AT&T logos on the #31 car, the suit did disrupt things. The case is still pending, which means it could be more wrangling with Nextel and by connection, wrangling with NASCAR. That doesn’t promise stability for the #31, although RCR could surely plug in other sponsors.

All three Childress cars made the Chase, but no one was consistently leading a slew of laps of knocking out the top 5 finishes. In that sense, RCR took a small step back from 2006. Burton led 649 laps and 4 poles in 2006, but only 79 laps and no poles in 2007. Burton did improve his lead lap finishes, average finish (13.8) and laps finished. Those numbers indicate that an improved consistency. In other words the RCR cars weren’t running at the front as much but they were avoiding the valleys too.

Burton is not going to outrun everyone, lead a lot of laps and rack up 5 or 6 wins every year. What he does do is turn laps, improve the car with good adjustments and suddenly be there at the end. Look at his last two Cup wins. At both Dover and Texas he didn’t lead a lot of laps, but then suddenly he was there with the fastest car in the final segment. At Texas last year he led one lap, but it was the final lap. He did the same thing at Las Vegas but a vibration deserted him late.

Very few teams can tout the resources and personnel that RCR has. This automatically gives them an edge in developing and perfecting the CoT. It also makes them one of three teams that has any kind of chance to match Hendrick’s success.

Burton’s preferred track type is very similar to teammate Kevin Harvick. Loudon, Phoenix, Richmond, Bristol are all tracks that the two share as favorites. It’s interesting that Burton excelled at the same type of tracks prior to RCR. Was that something that was a natural fit when he joined or something that he helped culbivate in the team’s designs? In the end it doesn’t matter whether it was the chicken or the egg, because the team is getting results. In addition to the tight, flat tracks, Burton has run well lately on intermediate tracks. He is the only driver with two wins at Texas, and he’s also had recent success at Charlotte, Las Vegas and California

2008 is an interesting year for Burton and RCR. All three cars made the Chase in 2007, but it was more from compiling finishes than racking up great results. In year two of the CoT a lot more teams will have a better handle on the car. That means increased competition for the 12 playoff spots. Burton is obviously good enough to make the Chase, but one of the RCR drivers will be the odd man out. Burton can win a race, but the rest of his success is dependent on amassing top 10’s. I think he’ll need 13-14 prior to the Chase. For comparison, that’s a higher number than last year when he did make it.

A few weeks ago I wrote a list of ten fearless predictions. Fearless as they were, they were also written with my tongue lodged in the side of my cheek. It’s easy to hide behind a satirical list, but it’s time for a list of things that could seriously happen this year, and we’ll start with the boldest one. [Tease: There is something pretty cool at the bottom that I can’t take credit for. So if you were thinking of navigating away because you think this/I is/am lame, at least scroll to the bottom of the post for something entertaining.]

1. Jeff Gordon will barely make the Chase. Gordon had a phenomenal 2007 season. 30 top 10’s, 6 wins and only one DNF are incredible numbers and it will be hard to duplicate. Part of it is simply regression to the mean. The other part is that Gordon typically faces more DNF’s (9 in 2005, 7 in 2006) and that will drain points. In recent years Gordon and the team have also been slow to make, or adapt to, adjustments. In 2005 with the rise in popularity of coil-bound setups, Gordon languished all summer as the team struggled to get Gordon comfortable on intermediate speedways. If Gordon has anything close to a weakness it would be his intermediate speedway program. With a brand new car at this type of track, there’s a very legitimate chance that it takes Gordon a while to get up to speed.

   It’s not simply citing 2005 either. Last year in a spectacular season, Gordon and Steve Letarte were slow to change their gameplan in the Chase while Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus were winning 4 straight races with a more aggressive approach. That cost Gordon the title last year. Gordon is strong at enough tracks to make the Chase, especially a field of 12, but if it’s more of a struggle than normal look no further than DNF’s and how he runs at intermediate tracks.

2. Regan Smith will win Rookie of the Year. Smith got a gradual introduction to the Cup series last year thanks to his apprenticeship with Mark Martin. He does a good job of keeping the car on the track. DEI also provides the top equipment among the companies fielding rookies in 2008. The other rookie candidates will all take more time to adjust to stock cars, not to mention racing at the Cup level. Sure Juan Pablo Montoya surprised last year, but he was in a different class. 2008 will also mark only the second season since 2000 that a rookie doesn’t win a race.

3. Sonoma and Watkins Glen will be the most exciting, and competitive races of the year. Watkins Glen was arguably the most unpredictable and exciting race of 2007 and the road courses will only get better this year. With the infusion of open wheel drivers, the starting field could feature a dream lineup of top road course drivers like Juan Pablo Montoya, Dario Franchitti, Sam Hornish Jr, AJ Allmendinger, Jacques Villeneuve, Patrick Carpentier, Boris Said, Ron Fellows, Scott Pruett. Now factor in the old guard featuring drivers like Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Robby Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman and Jamie McMurray and you have a lot of drivers that could light up the serpentine courses (and their tires). The heavier CoT can also accommodate more bumping without the cars losing control. That means beating, banging, flipping (birds, not cars), shouting, shoving, and for fans excitement.

4. Toyota will win 6 races. At first glance that number sounds like a lot, but think about it. Tony Stewart has never won less than two races and 7 out of 9 seasons he’s won at least three. Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch also figure to win one or two races each. Gibbs alone will approach the 6 win total. Further down, Brian Vickers and Dave Blaney both had several good wins in 2007 despite the weak Camry engine. It’s not crazy to think either driver could find victory lane. In fact Vickers had arguably the best car at Charlotte until he lost the power steering late and Blaney finished 3rd at Talladega.

5. Kyle Busch will be Gibbs’ most successful driver. When Shrub was with Hendrick, the team had Cup champion past (Jeff Gordon), present (Jimmie Johnson) and future (Busch). Busch’s move to Gibbs doesn’t change that the fact that he will win a Cup championship. It probably won’t happen this year, but he is excellent at nearly every type of track. His 97.8 driver rating was 5th best and in his fourth Cup season, he is hitting his stride. This isn’t a knock on Tony Stewart, who should have a great year, it’s just a statement of how good Kyle Busch will be in 2008.

6. A team will alter their full schedule plans Last year it was Ginn, this winter Morgan-McClure quietly closed their doors, and this year could take its toll on another team. With so many teams with high profile sponsors all vying for the same real estate in the 43-car field, simple math shows there isn’t enough room for everyone. As a result some sponsors will not want to hang around if they can’t get exposure for their brand. That will force a team to either dig deep in their own pockets or scale back. Prior to last week this could have easily been Robby Gordon Motorsports, but he is probably safe thanks to Gillet-Evernham’s shelter.

   Now the most likely teams look like BAM, Furniture Row, and Front Row motorsports. They are each alredy on shoestring budgets, but the bigger teams are not immune either. Haas-CNC, Yates and BDR all face sponsorship hurdles and that might result in skipping a few races during the season. Like Metallica says, Sad but True.

Something Cool

I got an email out of the blue yesterday from someone named Ryan Parker. He writes topical sports songs and his latest is sort of an ode to NASCAR and the 2008 season. It’s really well done and he told me it took about 8 hours for the whole process. You can see all of his songs at his website.

The word on the street is that Casey Mears drives for Hendrick Motorsports. Based on most NASCAR publications and promotional pictures it would be easy to think of HMS as a three-car galaxy of superstars. Mears is a solid driver in his own right. In fact Mears finished one spot better than his higher profile teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. in the 2007 point standings. Don’t feel bad for Mears. Sure he gets as much attention as an extra on Oceans 13, but his situation continues to improve with Hendrick.

It took Mears the first third of the season to settle into the #25 car. A rash of wrecks didn’t help and it pushed Mears to the edge of the top 35 cliff. He eventually clawed his way back to the teens in the standings. Then came the big breakthrough. At the Coca Cola 600 Mears ran in the top 5 all night and then endured on fuel mileage for his first career Cup win. He followed that up with two top fives in the next three races.

He set career highs in wins, top 5’s, top 10’s and lead lap finishes. The first three numbers are obvious, but improving his lead lap finishes is a credit to his new Hendrick equipment. The cars are there for Mears to take advantage of, now the rest is up to him to avoid wrecks and find the right setup.

New crew chief Alan Gustafson will handle most of the heavy lifting on car setups. Last year Darian Grubb came from the engineering team to be Mears’ crew chief. Grubb had to rebuild the #25 team and quickly grow into the crew chief’s role, both of which contributed to Mears’ slow start. Now Grubb moves back to engineering to make way for one of the top young crew chiefs in the sport. Gustafson has spent the last three seasons with Kyle Busch and the #5 team, where they’ve won 4 races. After assorted headaches with Busch, Mears is surely a treat for Gustafson.

Mears showed improved consistency, but the next step is running closer to the front. He had 12 races where finished 11th-20th and only led 33 laps in 2007. Whittling 15th place finishes down to top 10’s would mean a nice jump in points. It’s a simple plan, but will be tough with so many other top drivers vying for the same space on the track.

His comfort is found at the intermediate tracks where he has experienced the most success. Tracks like Texas (4 top 10’s in 5 starts), Las Vegas, Kansas and Pocono comprise the type of fast, gradually-banked tracks that apparently fit Mears’ style. Mears weakness continues to be places like Phoenix, Loudon and Richmond. He has one career top ten in 28 career starts at the three sister tracks.

Can he make the Chase? Some have pointed to 2005 when Roush Racing placed all five of their drivers in the season ending playoffs as a sign that Hendrick could land all 4 drivers in the 2008 Chase. So sure, it’s possible. The big difference then, was that Roush perfected the 2005 aero package while other teams, including some Hendrick cars, struggled mightily. The CoT is in its second year and while Hendrick shot out to a large lead last year, the rest of the sport is bound to close the gap this year. In other words, last year was the more likely season to place a whole organization in the Chase. Mears had a nice 2007, and another win at a speedway or superspeedway is entirely possible in 2008. Beyond that, it’s hard seeing Mears vault over so many drivers to make the Chase.

In 267 laps there were only about 30 where there was any mystery to the outcome of the race or the Championship. Matt Kenseth dominated, led 213 laps and closed out his time with crew chief Robbie Reiser by winning the race. Jimmie Johnson led the first lap, backed off and sat comfortably in the top ten for the rest of the afternoon, leaving little suspense to the Chase. For Johnson all the heavy lifting was done in the past four weeks when he created the necessary separation from Jeff Gordon to do some light lifting of the trophy on Sunday night.

There is no need to say anything else about Johnson. He had a phenomenal year, and while you can debate the legitimacy of the Chase, everyone enters the season with the same rules and Johnson played the game the best. The bigger issue is how the Nextel Cup can be more like the Craftsman Truck Series. They race on most of the same tracks, have the same manufacturers and many of the same owners supply the top teams, but there is a huge gap in the competition level between the two series. I don’t have an answer, but imagine if fans could look forward to each weekend seeing the best drivers in NASCAR’s top series and knowing that more often than not, the finish would be close, the racing would be good and the points would remain close the entire season. NASCAR can talk about marketing globally and finding new fans, but when they figure out how to get a better product on the track on a regular basis, new fans will figure out what the big fuss about.

Other Thoughts

• Jeff Gordon ran well, especially after the sun went down. The finish was his 30th top ten of the season, which is simply amazing. Only six races outside the top ten, and two of those races were finishes of 11th and 12th. He also led laps in 23 races and had 21 top fives. The season was an amazing one, but unfortunately it might be considered in the category of the 2001 Seattle Mariners. A record setting year that didn’t end with a championship.

  Gordon’s post race comments were interesting too. “Not saying they didn’t deserve any of them, but they definitely got the wins at a crucial time when we got a little conservative. We didn’t get the cars to where they needed to be. And those guys beat us, that is the bottom line.”

  Gordon’s strategy was sound. Finish in the top ten every week, win a few races and force everyone else to get aggressive. Unfortunately for Gordon this year it wasn’t enough.

• I used to think Homestead wasn’t worthy of the final race of the season, but the racing has really improved. Had someone else had a car equal to the #17 it may have shown more. The few times that Martin Truex Jr or Denny Hamlin were within striking distance of Kenseth, the racing was good and passing was tough. I would have liked to see how it would have been if someone else was in the same ballpark as Kenseth.

• I happened to catch a little of the Cup Happy Hour coverage on Saturday. ESPN did a feature on how they do the Draft Tracker. I didn’t realize there was actual telemetry equipment installed on every car. This poses a problem. If teams are able to gain access to this information during the race, what kind of advantage would that be? Is this the first step towards an increased reliance on in-car technology like Formula One?

The in-race reporter idea is a good one, but ESPN could take it even further. Follow that driver’s in-car camera for 10-20 laps at a time, play the best of their in-car audio, especially when they discuss changes to the car. TNT did it with Kyle Petty as a one time deal, but a network should do it on a weekly basis next year.

• ESPN’s pit reporters are one of the strengths of their broadcast. It’s good when they tell the audience something they didn’t already know, it’s great when they tell us something we would never know. Example, Dave Byrnes relayed a story about the #42 team and how they intentionally had Juan Pablo Montoya practice driving a loose racecar. Montoya had a nice run and ran in the top five for a good part of the race before settling for 15th.

• It was neat to see how excited Robbie Reiser was after the race. In his last with Matt Kenseth, he built a bullet. Now Reiser can focus all of his time and energy on the Car of Tomorrow for all of the Roush/Fenway(Yates) cars. It’s too bad Kenseth won’t be able to use his bullet next year.

  Speaking of the old cars, if I had some room in the driveway I’d contact a team about how to get me a car. Imagine the drivers in the ARCA and Busch East Series. They are the lucky benefactors of cars and chassis as a result of millions of dollars in research rendered obsolete by the country’s top racing series.

Well that’s it for NASCAR in 2007, but while the drivers head to their lakes, condos in Mexico or their local dirt tracks, I will be more like a crew member and head right back to work tomorrow. I have some plans for the offseason and nothing changes, just more of the daily stuff that makes this blog the number one search result on Google for the keywords “Trouble in Turn 2″.

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