Trouble in Turn2

[Note: Blogging is a great thing. It allows for freedom and flexibility. These things only apply with the help of a computer, which in my case went AWOL Sunday night. My apologies.]

All right people, move along. Kyle Busch won another Cup race. Nothing to see here.

After Dale Earnhardt Jr passed Busch on the second lap of the race it looked like Busch would be relegated to a middling finish. Instead Busch got off sequence with most of the leaders, pitted earlier and suddenly grabbed the lead and his sequence won out. Given the fact that Busch was joined by his Gibbs Racing teammates, Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin, on the early pit stop makes you wonder if it was all planned to sandbag the first 15-20 laps.

While some are noting that Busch is closing in on the #1 seed in the Chase, he has already clinched it. Carl Edwards could match his 8 wins, but because of the penalty at Las Vegas he can’t match Busch’s 80 bonus points. The other thing to take away from Watkins Glen is that aside from Busch’s 10 bonus points, the race has zero bearing on what will transpire during the Chase. There are no road races during the Chase, so teams can’t really apply anything they learned on Sunday. Plus the concept of momentum is as effective as the rabbit’s foot on Bobby Labonte’s keychain (seriously, I can’t name a driver that gets caught up in more bad wrecks than Labonte).

While the race won’t have a bearing on the Chase, it did highlight how off Jeff Gordon and Steve Letarte have been at times this year. They’ve struggled at other tracks this year, most notably at certain intermediate speedways, but Gordon is one of the elite road course racers. To struggle at Watkins Glen, especially when teammates Dale Earnhardt Jr and Jimmie Johnson ran well, was shocking. While Letarte won’t have to set up another road car, the fact that they missed a fundamental chance for a good day is noteworthy in the Chase.

Hello, my name is Glen. I’m from upstate New York. I throw a party once a year and invite all of my friends to come and hang out for the weekend. My political views are pretty balanced, sometimes I go to the left, other times I lean to the right. Not everyone is used to this balanced path and sometimes it can be frustrating for my friends with less experience at my parties. Alright, I admit it used to be fun playing tricks on these people and watching them spin and get caught in the quicksand, but I’ve matured in recent years. No more sand traps or food poisoning (sorry Tony), only good times and clean fun. Remember 2006? Both the Busch and Cup races featured fierce battles for the lead in the closing laps. So you’re all invited to join the party and hang out this weekend.

What Happened Last Year

Jeff Gordon had the dominant car and with 2 laps left he was apparently already dreaming of his Victory Lane kiss from Ingrid when he went wide on a turn allowing Tony Stewart to squeeze by for the win. Gordon wound up 9th. Of course no one cared about that on Monday morning because Kevin Harvick and Juan Pablo Montoya rubbed each other’s faces after a wreck. Harvick was mad at Montoya for starting a wreck. Montoya was mad because it wasn’t his fault. So they both decided to engage in some quasi-fisticuffs.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champs: Ryan Newman Newman has three top tens in six tries. He is still a very good road course racer and won the 2005 Busch race. It might be a small stretch for a Champ pick, but this week’s options are limited.

Chumps: Clint Bowyer It’s not that Bowyer is a bad road racer, he has a 15.0 average finish at The Glen. It’s just that nearly every other top 12 driver is capable of a lot more.

Sleepers: Marcos Ambrose Kangaroo Meat is fast on road courses. The next step is showing he can avoid the ire of other top drivers and can finish the race in one piece.

Who Will Win?

Jeff Gordon is going to finish the job this year. His record on road courses one of the best in Cup history. And he won’t slip up at the end of the race this time.

On Monday morning at the water cooler the NASCAR fans that have been talking about Kyle Busch all summer will be talking about tires. In November, the same fans might be talking about Hendrick Motorsports and Jimmie Johnson. Whatever struggles the organization had early in the season are no longer an issue. Jimmie Johnson was in a class by himself at Indianapolis, leading 71 laps and winning his second Brickyard 400. As I have written before, Jimmie Johnson is still the reigning Cup holder. It is his until someone takes it from him. He and the #48 team have their speedway program in order after the slow start. It’s not just Johnson’s team either. Jeff Gordon ran in the top five all day, led 7 laps and had a 120.1 driver rating while finishing 5th. Dale Earnhardt Jr had a very fast car but had to play catchup the entire race after an early flat tire put him a lap down.

Thanks to the tire wear issues, the race was reduced to a series of heat races. With green flag runs lasting no longer than 12 laps thanks to crashes and NASCAR dictated competition cautions, there were 11 caution flags that created essentially 12 segments. Despite the erratic pace to the day, Johnson always found his way to the front. Of the 12 “segments”, Johnson was the leader entering the pits on 8 of them not to mention when he took the checkered flag. While others tried pit strategy to gain the lead, Johnson simply drove to the front with ease. That is the kind of performance it will take to beat Kyle Busch during the Chase. Sunday Hendrick Motorsports showed that they can still produce dominant cars, and my guess is that there’s more where that came from.

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It’s Indy time for the Cup guys. That means speeds over 200 mph, a huge purse (last year was over $8 million) and tight racing. With not a lot of room to pass in the corners, horsepower on the straightaways is a driver’s best friend. Dale Earnhardt Jr participated in the recent Goodyear tire test and he also quelled concern about tires.

Tire wear was a big issue. When we first started out, you recall last year and in years past, when we first get there, we go to the cords in about five laps. It takes the whole weekend to build the rubber up on the track before that goes away. We did that again, and we found a tire that will work with another tire that lasted quite a bit longer and ran just as quick.

Because Indianapolis is such a large track, tires can wear out quickly. It’s compounded by the fact that the Trucks and Nationwide cars don’t see the track. That also minimizes the amount of rubber buildup. The fact that Earnhardt is happy with the durability and quality of the tire is a good thing for the level of racing and safety.

What Happened Last Year

Dale Earnhardt Jr dominated the early stages of the race but blew an engine. It was one of three engine failures in the final seven races before the Chase, completely souring his chances to make the Chase or win a race. Tony Stewart took advantage and went on to cruise to an easy win. The win also produced two of the more memorable quotes from Stewart. While closing in on Kevin Harvick, Stewart casually uttered “Here kitty kitty” over the team radio. Then after his win he swore in Victory Lane on live TV. In a post Janet Jackson-FCC crackdown society, Stewart was fined. It didn’t help that it was ESPN’s first broadcast of their new television deal.

Notes

• In the short history at the Brickyard Jeff Gordon owns almost all of the records. 4 wins, 11 top 10’s, 433 laps led, and three poles are all tops.

• In 9 Indy starts Dave Blaney has never led a lap. Every driver with more than 4 starts has led at least one lap.

• Chevy has won the last five races and nine of 14 overall at Indianapolis. Dodge and Pontiac have one win each while Ford has three, although none since 1999. Toyota is tied with Oldsmobile and Scion at zero.

• James at One Bad Wheel has an interesting article on the history of victory lane celebrations. Todd Parrott is credited with starting the brick kissing tradition in 1996. It’s interesting to see how different traditions start and what makes one action stick while others are considered lame? Kissing bricks, climbing fences and drinking milk. They all make perfect sense. In a way it’s like nicknaming yourself. You can’t try too hard and make it intentional or it looks desperate. His article also reminded me of the time in 2005 when Kurt Busch won the fall Richmond race and kissed the asphalt. No one has done it since, thankfully.

• Bill Elliott will attempt to make his 15th Brickyard race. While he is no longer a threat to win races, Elliott can still get it done at select tracks. He has never finished worse than 23rd at Indy and has 5 top 5’s and 9 top 10’s in his career. That includes his 2002 win where he led 93 laps.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: David Ragan Ragan is becoming a serious threat on intermediate tracks. Last year he relied on attrition to score a decent finish. This year he is running in the top 10 and top 15 for the bulk of races.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Chump: Carl Edwards Sure Edwards can win at any track, but so far in his career Indy hasn’t agreed with him. A ninth place finish in 2006 is sandwiched by two mediocre finishes (12th, 18th) with bad driver ratings (69.6 and 67.1).

Sleeper: Mark Martin Martin stayed in the top 5 almost all day at Pocono and has already said he can win at Indy. He is not one to exaggerate.

Who Will Get to 1st Base with the Bricks?

Tony Stewart will surely be a popular choice along with his teammates Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. Kasey Kahne has been very good on speedways this summer and Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr could also show up in strength. Kevin Harvick is also one to watch (no matter what loser bloggers might say about his season, he comes good at Indy). Maybe I’m bored of picking the same four or five drivers each week, but I’m going deeper for my pick this week. Over the last two months
Brian Vickers has quietly ran with the leaders on a weekly basis. His driver rating over the last 8 races is a very neat 92.2. He was the fastest car at Michigan and one of the fastest at Lowe’s, Dover and Pocono. He is ready to win and it will be surprising if he doesn’t have a win by the time the Chase rolls around. Win number one for Red Bull Racing might come this weekend.

All the attention right now is focused on Kyle Busch and rightfully so given his incredible season. That’s probably fine with Jimmie Johnson. Johnson is probably the most invisible 2-time champion in the history of NASCAR. Johnson has only one win so far in 2008, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t running well. Fans, writers and broadcasters might not notice Johnson like in past years, but when September rolls around, the #48 car will be in the thick of the championship hunt.

He began this season with a wreck at Daytona, a 2nd place at California and one race, Las Vegas, where he and the team were out to lunch. Johnson had a 47.1 driver rating at Vegas, which is totally unacceptable for a team like the #48. At that point the team realized they were behind on the Car of Tomorrow (CoT) and dedicated themselves to more testing. The Hendrick teams conceded that last year’s Chase set back the #24 and #48 cars. It cost them testing time on the CoT speedway program last fall and both teams struggled in the early months of the season.Some teams might have dismissed the poor run at Las Vegas and kept things unchanged for a few weeks, but crew chief Chad Knaus and Johnson were willing to strive for improvement based only on three races.

The testing didn’t result in wins, but the progress can be seen. He led 65 laps and had a 130.6 driver rating at Texas, the first intermediate track after the team’s intense testing. The next week he again had a driver rating of 130, led 120 laps and won the race at Phoenix. Then he led 35 laps at Lowe’s before suffering a blown engine while leading the race with 49 to go. The engine failure was the first since 2005 for Johnson. Despite his DNF and 39th place finish he still had a 94.5 driver rating, showing how strong he was.

This summer has seen Johnson have a driver rating better than 100 in 5 of 7 races. He had top three cars at Pocono, Michigan, Loudon and Chicagoland. A win is coming and it should come before the Chase begins. He has won at Indianapolis, Pocono, California and Richmond. After a sluggish spring, Johnson is back to being a threat to win on a weekly basis, regardless of the track.

Chad Knaus is the master of playing the game to his advantage. Last year they won 6 races before the Chase and took several risks in others in order to accumulate as many bonus points as possible. Many people saw Jeff Gordon with a huge points lead prior to the Chase, but Johnson and Knaus had the most wins. They also saved some of their best cars for the Chase. I suspect Knaus is running a similar plan for this year’s Chase.

Even if Johnson doesn’t win another race before the Chase, he has made up large deficits in previous years and can do it again. Since 2004 when the Chase began, Johnson has won 11 races during the Chase. Only one other driver (Greg Biffle has four wins) has won more than three races. The tracks set up incredibly well for Johnson. He has won at eight of the ten Chase tracks that account for 21 total wins. Only Homestead and Kansas have eluded Johnson, although he led the most laps at the 2006 Kansas race and finished 2nd in the 2004 Homestead race.

So go ahead, pick Kyle Busch to win every remaining race, the championship and America’s hear (just kidding). Go on and say that Carl Edwards and Dale Earnhardt Jr will pose serious threats for the title, or that Tony Stewart and Matt Kenseth will wriggle into contention, but to me Jimmie Johnson is still the champion until someone else takes it from him. And for every driver and fan that isn’t paying attention, Johnson is ready to sneak up on everyone. Again.

In the last four races dating back to Sonoma we have seen Kyle Busch in a nutshell. He has won three races at three completely different tracks and also thrown in a nice scuffle at Loudon for good measure. Since his crash at Pocono (and the accompanying nonsense about his lack of focus) he has seen his lead grow from 21 points to 262. If the Chase started today he would have a 50 point lead over Carl Edwards and Kasey Kahne.

After Kyle Busch’s first win of the season at Atlanta, I compared his fourth Cup season (at age 23) to that of Jeff Gordon’s 1995 season. In that season, Gordon’s 3rd in Cup (age 23), he won 7 races, had 17 top 5’s and 23 top 10’s, and won his first of four championships. At the time it seemed like a fair comparison. Through three years, Busch’s numbers were very similar to Gordon’s at the same age. Of course, thanks to Busch’s last four races, he is on a completely different plane. Busch is beginning to look like the Jeff Gordon of 1996-1998 when he won 10, 10 and 13 races respectively.

It’s undeniable that Busch is having a great season, but let’s hold off with the “Legendary” labels for now. The 2007 New England Patriots could speak intelligently on the subject. While some fans still feel the Chase is contrived, it’s one more challenge that Busch and any other driver has conquer. Of course Busch is doing everything he can in the regular season to gain the NASCAR equivalent of home field advantage throughout the playoffs by racing up as many bonus points as possible. Even if his 50 point lead holds up or grows, he will still face serious competition during the final ten races. Remember, 50 points is the difference between 1st and 8th place. Carl Edwards is stout on the 1.5 mile intermediate tracks that litter the Chase schedule. Dale Earnhardt has run in the top 5 for the entire season and Jimmie Johnson is quietly rounding into to form (he will win at least one to two more races before the Chase starts). Even teammates Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin have the tools to challenge Busch for the title during the final stretch. Go ahead and pile the compliments on Kyle Busch’s plate right now, he’s had a dream season to this point. But be careful to assume that Busch will win continue winning races at this pace or that the Chase is only a formality.

• Last week I questioned the need for more night races, but Chicago was a good show. It was a lot tougher to pass at Chicago than some of the similar tracks earlier this year and drivers really had to work for several laps to set up passes. Whether that is from the cooler night temperatures, Goodyear’s improved tires, the quality of the Chicago or a combination of factors, it was a good race to watch. The incredible sunset was a nice touch too.

• Speaking of tough to pass, is there a driver that is tougher to pass than Matt Kenseth? He is so adept at finding the line where another driver wants to be and making it really difficult for other drivers. It’s nothing illegal or cheap but it’s his signature move. Other drivers try it, but no one is able to hold on for so many laps with an inferior car to the one attempting to pass.

• TNT took a commercial break while the race was under green with 17 laps left. In a race that featured a lot of tight racing and had just featured a late pass for the lead, TNT should have stayed with the final 20 laps until either the finish or a caution flag. I realize how difficult it is to time commercials and balance the coverage with paying bills, but it seemed like a poor decision. What happens if Johnson cuts a tire, or Kyle Busch wrecks trying to run Johnson down? It created a situation where a race-altering move could have been missed in the final laps of the race.

• Kevin Harvick scored his first top 5 since Richmond nine races ago. The 3rd place finish allowed him to jump 4 spots in the standings to 9th. Richard Childress Racing teammate Clint Bowyer’s tailspin continued. After his win at Richmond, Bowyer sat in 4th place in the points and had scored 7 straight top tens. He now sits in 13th and only has two top tens in the last nine. The reason for Bowyer’s slide? In the first quarter of the season he ran in the top ten and top 15 avoided trouble to maximize his finishes. Now Bowyer is still running in the top 15 but has not been able to improve his position. His driver rating (79.7) is 17th best. If Bowyer hopes to make the Chase, that number will have to improve.

• Barring major catastrophe the top 5 drivers are pretty well locked into the Chase. Starting with Jeff Gordon in 6th place and back to 15th place David Ragan, there is only a 200 point gap. A lot could happen between now and Richmond to shuffle the bottom half of the Chase field.

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We’re in a recession. Everyone’s felling it and it’s not very funny. But what’s the point if you can’t at least try and laugh about it.

1. The Labor Day race at Fontana will be moved to LA and filmed in front of a green screen. (note: I’ve seen the script and you won’t believe what happens to Kirk Shelmerdine!)

2. Fans at Talladega cease throwing bottles and cans at Jeff Gordon in order to collect the deposit.

3. Pocono sets up a tollbooth at the start of the Long Pond straightaway.

4. With DEI exceeding their budget for tires, crew chief Bono Manion tells Martin Truex to stay out…the entire race.

5. In addition to their necks, fans are now seeing red on their bank statements.

6. Dale Earnhardt Jr collectors only buy nine diecast cars this year instead of the normal eleven.

7. The pace car becomes a Toyota Prius. Pace car driver Brett Bodine is replaced by a remote control operated by a 12 year old.

8. Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart can’t even buy a win.

9. After the prerace invocation, Mike Helton tries to pass offering plates around the pit area.

10. In an effort to save fuel the #18 pit crew will push Kyle Busch’s car during all burnouts.

11. Bloggers can’t even afford to complete their top ten lists.

Enjoy your weekend and may Saturday’s race be a nice diversion from reality.

The good news for Matt Kenseth is that he is really good at Chicago. The bad news is that despite several dominant performances at the track, he has not won a race there yet. In 2005 he led 176 laps but was pipped at the end by Dale Earnhardt Jr on pit strategy. After a caution with 22 laps left, Kenseth pitted for four tires while Earnhardt Jr beat him out of the pits with a two tire stop. With lapped traffic and others taking two tires, Kenseth couldn’t run Junior down and settled for 2nd. In 2006 he was strong again, leading 112 laps and again led late. This time a charging Jeff Gordon got into the back of Kenseth and spun him out. Kenseth then ran out of fuel to finish 22nd. Last year he only led one lap but again finished 2nd. He also has two runner-up finishes in the Busch/Nationwide Series to add to the frustration. In the last three races at Chicago Kenseth owns the best driver rating (126.2) among all drivers and his average finish in all seven races is 10.1. The good news is that Kenseth should get another chance to run at the front this weekend.

This year’s race will go under the lights. It is the eleventh current Cup track to host a race under the lights and is the 13th race of the season. I love night races: the sparks, the faster speeds and additional grip all add something to the race. Having Sunday afternoons cleared is also nice. When places like Charlotte, Bristol, Richmond and Daytona first began running night races, there was a novelty to it and made these events stand out against the rest of the schedule. The problem is when is it overkill? Over a third of the season is now at night. Obviously for places like Phoenix, Daytona, Fontana and Chicago it is a lot more comfortable for fans at night (I can vouch for that in Phoenix), but at the same time it seems like all the new tracks are very quick to flip on the lights.

What Happened Last Year

Jimmie Johnson led 82 laps and was the best car on the track until a flat tire sent him into the outside wall. That opened the door for Tony Stewart to win his first race of 2007. It was the first of Stewart’s three wins over the next month and a half and pushed him into the thick of the Chase race.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Brian Vickers Red Bull has really found something in their intermediate program. Vickers was a top 5 car at Charlotte, Pocono and Michigan. He is getting really close to winning.

Chump: Clint Bowyer RCR is lacking juice on the 1.5 mile tracks this year.

Sleeper: Casey Mears Last year’s pole winner, Mears has never started lower than 12th in five races. He has one top 5 and two top 10’s. He also won the 2006 Busch race.

Who Will Win?

Not only has Kenseth excelled at Chicago, he has run very well since May. He has seven top 10’s in 8 races, including three top 5’s. Kenseth almost always delivers at tracks that fit his style. His 3rd place finish at Michigan proved that again. He will finally break through at Chicago this weekend, granted he watches out for Jeff Gordon on his tail. How about a darkhorse to keep an eye on? Let’s go with Kasey Kahne.

I’m a little late to the party (who comes on time to parties anyway?), but here’s a few thoughts, observations and questions about Mark Martin’s plan to run for the 2009 Championship with Hendrick Motorsports.

Saturday night’s race at Daytona was a perfect example of why Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards are having such great seasons. They have each enjoyed dominant stretches during the season, but their ability to take advantage of other’s mistakes and finish well when they’re at less than their best is why they are both early favorites to win the Championship.

Busch was solid early on when swapping the lead with Dale Earnhardt Jr. But then he somehow lost the steering on the car(a theme for the race) and fell to the last car on the lead lap. Meanwhile Edwards only spent 72 laps in the top 15 and didn’t crack the top ten until lap 92. The only lap he led was when he stayed out under yellow on lap 112, but then went to the back of the pack on the next lap. And then with three laps left Edwards and Busch were suddenly both poised to win the race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin and even David Gilliland had greater chances at winning, only to see them all slip from a variety of reasons. What Edwards and especially Busch did is exactly what Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson did last year. They didn’t thrash everyone on a weekly basis, but were very opportunistic and finished races when others didn’t. That’s the quality of a top team.

Kyle Busch now has 60 points towards his Chase score. That’s 40 more than Edwards and Kasey Kahne. If other drivers with title ambitions like Earnhardt Jr, Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart hope to keep up, they need to rattle off a few wins to close the gap at the start of the Chase.

• Tony Stewart suffered from dehydration and had to have JJ Yeley sub for him midway through the race. The look on Stewart’s face after he exited the car was one of pure exhaustion. Sometimes it’s easy to forget how physically and mentally demanding races can be, especially at restrictor plate where there is no time to relax.
  

  “I thought we were going to be able to (make it) for the first two runs, but once the car got a little bit loose and we had to start really sawing on the wheel, it’s like it zapped the energy out of me and I started making mistakes. It was a situation where I was trying to look out for everybody involved on the race team. I wasn’t doing us any favors by not being 100 percent. It was better to get out as early as we could versus sticking it out with 20 to go and expecting J.J. (Yeley) to get the thing back in the top-five. It’s one of those decisions you have to make early enough, and I knew I wasn’t feeling good and I wasn’t feeling any better and it was getting worse as we were going. Before the race, the nurse said she was going to buy us a couple of hours and we got three hours out of it. We still had to go out there and try.

• Kyle Petty and Bill Weber were trying to name other recent substitute drivers, but never answered their own question. Ricky Rudd subbed for Stewart in 2006 at Dover after Stewart hurt his shoulder at Lowe’s. Petty subbed for Kevin Harvick at Bristol in August 2004 when Harvick’s arm went numb. Dale Earnhardt also required subs at Loudon (Martin Truex) and Pocono (John Andretti) after his fiery accident in a Grand Am event at Infineion in 2004.

• DEI had a mixed bag this weekend. Paul Menard was the surprise pole winner and led the first ten laps. Mark Martin started 2nd and spent the majority of the race in the top ten before finishing 10th. On the other hand Regan Smith hit Menard from behind in the pits and later wrecked on the last lap and Martin Truex Jr was involved in numerous incidents before finishing 16th. Three cars in the top 20 is nice, but only Martin had a car good enough to hang with the top cars.

• For the second year, the Wide Open coverage was great. Seeing nearly all of the on-track action was exciting, especially in a race with a lot of great action. What would make it even better is if the announcers would be less, um, Wide Open. For example, Weber mentioned Yeley several times and what a great story that would make if he won the race. It’s true, that would have been a great story, but Weber shouldn’t try to force the story, especially when it obviously wasn’t going to happen. Wally Dallenbach, who I tend to like, could also have a bigger impact by saying less. Yelling over Petty and Weber doesn’t add anything and interrupting with a “Whoa!” when cars are single file, also doesn’t enhance the broadcast. Overall the broadcast matched the tempo of the race and did an exciting night justice.

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