Trouble in Turn2

I just finished watching Days of Thunder, and despite knowing almost everything that would happen, I still found it more enteraining than Sunday’s Best Buy 400 at Dover. Officially the race had 17 green flag lead changes. In reality it was a three car race with most lead changes (9) only occurring during green flag pit stops. Essentially Kyle Busch’s pit crew beat Carl Edwards’ and Greg Biffle’s. By lap 160 Jeff Gordon made his way into fifth place and the top five never changed again. One point to make was that the lack of excitement didn’t have very much to do with the lack of lead lap cars, it was simply a race with long green flag runs and not much passing. There were times when cars would ride nose to tail for 20 or 30 laps with neither able to pull away. Busch summed up the lack of excitement this way,

“It wasn’t I guess all that exciting. You know, that’s a product of what we’ve got going on here. We’re working on trying to make our cars go as fast as they can. The faster we make them go, the more aero-dependent they’re going to be. The more you put out on the racetrack, the more the air is going to get screwed up. You know, we’re all fighting for space. We’re all fighting for air. We’re all fighting for everything. Sorry it wasn’t exciting.”

It’s not Busch’s fault the race was boring, nor is it the teams’ fault. With the CoT still in its infancy, there will continue to be snoozers like we saw at Dover. It’s not pretty to watch, but expect more of the same as teams, Goodyear and NASCAR all get a grasp on the car.

The one nugget of excitement came on lap 19 when several top cars collected after Elliott Sadler and David Gilliland made contact. First Tony Stewart, then Denny Hamlin and finally Bill Elliott and Scott Riggs all took turns diving on the hog pile in turn 2. As you might expect, the reactions were varied. First Stewart:

“I take 100% responsibility — it’s my fault for being even anywhere close to Elliott (Sadler). If I’m within a half a lap of him, I expect that to happen. It’s my fault — I’m the one that hit him. When I hit him it caused all the guys behind us to wreck. So it’s my fault.”

Obviously there is still some residual ill-will from Stewart for the wreck at Darlington. Stewart has had wrecks in three of the last five races, and last week had a win snuffed out by a flat tire. Common sense says Stewart will rebound during the summer months, but he had similar problems in 2006 and failed to make the Chase. It’s definitely something to watch.

Meanwhile teammate Denny Hamlin received a lot of heat for plowing into the wreck late. It did appear that other drivers managed to slow down in less time than Hamlin, but Elliott and Riggs were even further behind Hamlin and still couldn’t stop in time.

“It’s so tight off of turn two right there. I feel bad for Elliott (Sadler). I came piling in there way late. I had the 43 (Bobby Labonte) right on my bumper trying not to get hit from him. When I heard wreck off turn two I immediately was on the brakes. It’s just these cars don’t stop as well as they had in the past. Luckily, I wasn’t the last one. It looked like guys even behind me piled in there. It’s just part of the race track.”

While I find it a little easy to blame the track and the heavier car, something obviously caused problems for numerous cars in the accident. After his incident last weekend in the Nationwide race, Hamlin is probably not a popular driver with many fans, but it’s not really fair either.

Other Notes

Nice runs by Dave Blaney, Travis Kvapil and Juan Pablo Montoya. All scored top 12’s. Meanwhile Sam Hornish Jr finished 19th to return to the top 35. The finish was his second top 20 and moved him all the way to 33rd in the owners standings. Meanwhile thanks to a steep 150 point penalty earlier this week and a bad wreck on Sunday, Scott Riggs and the #66 car fell outside the top 35. With the other Haas car missing another race, things are getting tough in a hurry for Haas-CNC.

Fox did a good job this year with their NASCAR coverage (although I could have passed on the letter grades feature today). Now it’s on to TNT. At least Kyle Petty will keep things fresh.

Elevators and Imitators

Eleven races into the season is almost one third of the way home. Some teams are exceeding expectations while others are underachieving. That’s obvious enough. While the points show one picture, the driver ratings can reveal some differences. A driver with a high driver rating shows

Carl Edwards is 4th in driver rating but sits in 7th place in the standings. Obviously without the 100 point penalty Edwards would be 4th in points. Jeff Gordon is 10th in points but owns the 7th best driver rating. A mechanical failure at Daytona and a nasty crash at Las Vegas erased otherwise strong runs at these tracks. It highlights how damaging engine failures and bad finishes can be to a driver’s points. Outperforming your points total is a good sign for the rest of the summer. I fully expect both Edwards and Gordon to climb higher in the standings and score more top 5’s.

Jeff Burton is second in the points but 8th in driver rating. It’s pretty clear that Burton’s great start is due more to compiling points and avoiding trouble than it is having fast, dominant cars. Avoiding trouble is obviously a testament to Burton’s skill, but it’s harder to sustain than simply running in the top five every week. Every driver will lose an engine, get caught up in a wreck or get a flat tire at the wrong time. Making your own luck by having top five cars every week is a lot more reliable than trying to outlast everyone and sneaking into the top ten or top five.

Elevators: Drivers with the biggest positive differences between points and driver rating
Casey Mears +6
Elliott Sadler +5
Dave Blaney +5
Matt Kenseth +4

Imitators: Drivers with the biggest negative differences between points and driver rating
David Gilliland -7
Clint Bowyer -6
Jeff Burton -6
Bobby Labonte -5
Travis Kvapil -4

The numbers give a decent snapshot of who is running well compared to finishing well. Maybe over or underachieving is the wrong word. Drivers deserve credit for passing as many cars as they can, with whatever method they can. The only point of these numbers is to get a glimpse of which drivers are capable of a strong summer or who might be ripe for a tumble.

Things can obviously change. The CoT is far from perfected, so there is a great opportunity for teams to find new advantages. Burton and RCR could suddenly find something in a test that pushes their cars closer to the front. Or maybe, in the copycat world of NASCAR, everyone might simply catch up to Gibbs and Roush and even the playing field. Younger drivers will likely gain more confidence and experience which could lead to better results. An older driver might get a new crew chief that rejuvenates a team. A team that suffers from bad luck suddenly feels the need to change personnel, resulting in even worse performances. There are tons of variables that could change the numbers.

So who do you think could climb the ladder or go down the chute this summer?

As far as Saturday night’s race, Kyle Busch won, he’s a great driver and will win more races this year and in the future. He slapped the wall multiple times and still won, it was impressive, but he is not Wild Thing. Ricky Vaughn, Mitch Williams, The Troggs, even Tone Loc all rank higher than Kyle Busch concerning rights to the “Wild Thing” moniker. Now let’s move on and talk about something that hasn’t been beaten to death in the last few weeks.

The race itself wasn’t very thrilling. Tires meant very little and track position was everything. On lap 250 Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr surrendered 1st and 2nd to pit for tires, while the cars from 3rd to 10th stayed out. Normally at Darlington a strong car with fresh tires would make its way back to the front rather quickly, but Hamlin and Truex spent the next 50 laps stuck in traffic at the end of the top ten. Darlington was obviously still treacherous, but without the steep dropoff in tires, the race was a little stale. It was the fastest race in Darlington history, speedwise and was almost 30 minutes quicker than the 2007 race, but boy did it feel long. I taped the race and despite fast forwarding through all the commercials, it still felt really long. Maybe it was because nothing exciting happened. I fear for my attention span in two weeks.

Thoughts

• A few weeks ago, I wondered if there were two drivers you would want to watch battle for the lead in a tight race, than Greg Biffle and Kyle Busch. Considering the fireworks Biffle and Busch presented on Saturday night, my answer stands. The save Biffle made when Busch bumped him in a turn was incredible. It’s a shame Biffle had mechanical problems because he was the only other driver that had something for Busch, and you knew if he was around at the end it would have been a great fight.

• While top ten stalwarts like Tony Stewart, Greg Biffle, Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick had trouble, the door was opened for some other drivers to enjoy good runs. David Ragan finished 5th for his second top five in three races. He also moved up to 12th in the standings. Travis Kvapil had another strong race (what does a team have to do to get a sponsor for crying out loud?), spending almost 300 laps in the top 15 before finishing 8th. One of the happiest teams on Saturday night was the #22 team. Dave Blaney climbed as high as 2nd before finishing 9th. The finish also pushes the team past Sam Hornish Jr for the crucial 35th spot in owner points.
  

  “This is a brand new car, and it was really good all weekend. They kept getting it better and better all night. That last run, we kind of faltered for some reason. But not bad, man. That is run that this team needed.”

• No rookie finished better than 28th and were at least 4 laps down. Too Tough to Tame indeed.

• Elliott Sadler handled his incident with Tony Stewart the right way. He publicly, and immediately accepted all the blame. If there is anything else to sort out, he and Stewart can iron it out in private. In the heat of the moment, that’s the wise and classy thing to do. Too often drivers would prefer to point fingers or shirk their responsibility on national television.

• Nice to see both Bill Elliott and Sterling Marlin back in Cup cars, especially at Darlington. The two have seven combined wins at Darlington. Elliott’s 30th place finish was the best showing for the Wood Brothers in 2008. Marlin drove for the injured Dario Franchitti in the #40 car, which has now come full circle. Marlin and David Stremme, both let go in previous years by Chip Ganassi have both subbed for Franchitti in recent weeks.

Next up is Exhibition Weekend, I mean All-Star weekend. Boogity, Boogity, Boogity boys, let’s go wreckin’.

For more racing insight, news and opinion be sure to check out Racing Nation. Tell ‘em Mike sent you (they’ll probably squint and ask, “Mike, who?”, but it’s still worth viewing.

Junior fans, be honest. If it was anyone other than Kyle Busch, would you be so upset right now? Would Busch’s wreck with Junior in the closing laps have been such a big deal? Well, probably since it involved the biggest star in NASCAR, but it’s hardly fair to Busch. It was a racing incident plain and simple. It wasn’t any different than Tony Stewart and Kevin Harvick at Bristol earlier this year or hundreds of similar wrecks resulting from hard racing over the years.

In light of a tense situation, Busch did have one of the best quotes of the night after the race,

I don’t know why they[ the fans] were telling me I was number one, I was in second place. Clint Bowyer got the lead from me — they were all confused I guess, too many old (Dale Earnhardt) Jr. Budweisers.

• Denny Hamlin had the NASCAR equivalent of pitching a no hitter, only to cough it up on a home run in the bottom of the ninth. Actually, getting a flat tire after leading 381 of 382 laps was like watching your center fielder turn a single into an inside-the-park home run.
  

  It’s tough to say. I mean, you can’t whine about it. It wasn’t meant to be. God didn’t want me to win today, and there’s a better time for us to win, evidently. Today is just not our day.

  Hamlin had 1 green flag pass all night, which is usually a bad thing, except when there is no one else but lapped cars to pass.

• The top ten cars stayed essentially the same all night long. Part of the reason was because a lot of decent cars got caught up in an eleven car pileup. Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth, Juan Pablo Montoya and others all got collected after Patrick Carpentier was sent spinning. Jamie McMurray suffered minor damage in that crash, so he went back for seconds later in the race. Somehow Jeff Burton snaked through with minor damage and went on to finish 11th. The way the track clogged so quickly reminded me of another short track Big One from the 2005 Bristol race.

• Speaking of Kenseth, he now sits in 22nd place in the standings, 204 points outside of 12th place. In 2005 he was 21st after the Richmond race, but thanks to a furious summer rally he made the Chase. The good news is Kenseth typically runs well at the next three tracks, Darlington, Charlotte and Dover. There is a lot of time left.

• What was Michael Waltrip thinking when he continued bumping Casey Mears under caution? Mears was running one lap down in 16th. There was no way Mears meant to wreck Waltrip. For the lovable image Waltrip likes to project, it’s interesting how many times a year he gets called to the NASCAR hauler.

• The top 35 fight rages on. Dave Blaney’s 18th place finish (and best run of 2008) put some pressure on 35th place Sam Hornish Jr. 32nd place David Reutimann is only 10 points ahead of Hornish, with Waltrip and Regan Smith sandwiched in between. With the unfriendly confines of Darlington up next, the positions at the back of the field could change quickly.

For more NASCAR insight, stats and opinions go to Racing Nation.

After three straight races in three different time zones, all the NASCAR drivers were looking forward to the off-week before heading back to work. Like every other person with free time, they look forward to their vacation filled with relaxtion and entertainment. Earlier in the off-week several NASCAR drivers decided to relax and enjoy a night out together. So Dave Blaney, Patrick Carpentier, JJ Yeley, Kyle Petty, Johnny Sauter, Mike Skinner, Bill Elliott, John Andretti, Joe Nemecheck and Dario Franchitti decided to head to a trendy Charlotte nighttime hangout, Club 3-5.

As the group approached the front door, they were suddenly stopped by the bouncer,“Sorry, I can’t let you guys in”.

“What? It’s only 9:00 and it’s a big club, it looks like there’s plenty of room for all of us,” said an irritated Nemechek.

“Yeah, there’s room but we have to save spots for people with better dance skills.”

“Better dance skills? Like who?” asked an incredulous Andretti, “Who’s cooler than us?”
Dale Earnhardt Jr and Kasey Kahne nudged their way through the group and moonwalked their ways inside the door.
“Ok, fine,” responded Andretti, “They’re pretty cool, but who else?”
Just then, Regan Smith and Sam Hornish Jr walked up to the velvet rope and nudged their way past the group of drivers. “Hey Mike, can we get in?”

“Of course guys,” said the bouncer as he opened the rope and motioned them towards the door. Then turning back to the other drivers shrugged and said, “That’s the rules. Those guys have been better dancers this year than any of you. Plus have you ever seen Hornish pop and lock?”

“We just want to get into the club, we don’t expect to dominate the dance floor. That’s only fair,” pleaded Petty.

All right, some of you can still get in, but you’ll have to prove it with your dance moves. I’ll let eight of you in, but the others have to go hang out at the Olive Garden.”

Bill Elliott was the first one to try. He began with a slow, uncoordinated rendition of the Charleston, but then Mike the Bouncer interrupted. “Hey, didn’t you win a dance contest a few years ago? Yeah, you did. 1986 right? Go ahead, you can go in.”

Next up was JJ Yeley. His acrobatic routine began impressively but then as he was squaring up for a flip, he slumped to the ground. “I think I broke my leg!”

“That’s a shame there JJ, but I’m sorry we can’t let you in.”

As Yeley was writhing in pain on the ground, another driver, Michael McDowell limped up to the door on crutches. With a simple nod to Mike the Bouncer, McDowell slipped inside as the door closed behind him. A befuddled Yeley just sat there.

Next up were Franchitti, Carpentier, Skinner and Andretti doing some ballroom dancing. The performance, although awkward without female dance partners, impressed Mike the Bouncer enough. “I’ll let you guys in, but let me see the other dances first. Just stand here for a minute.”

Just then Boris Said walked by and saw all the dancing. “That looks pretty fun, I think I’ll give it a shot too.”
Petty realized there were only three spots left so he went for it. He pulled out the Robot routine he’d learned from his dad back in the 70’s. “Kyle, I’m sorry but it was just too slow. It may have worked in another era, but I can’t let you in.”

So Said proceeded to do a flawless breakdance routine capped with a headspin. “That was amazing! That’s one of the best dances I’ve seen tonight. You’re in for sure!” Just then a lightning bolt lit up the sky followed by a sudden downpour.

“It’s raining! I didn’t even have a chance to go,” cried Blaney as the makeup for his Thriller routine ran down his face.

“You’re right Blaney, we need a way to settle this.” The bouncer paused for a second, “Okay, Elliott, Blaney, Franchitti, Nemechek, Yeley-but you’ll need to switch to your backup routine when you get inside, Sauter, Carpentier and Skinner. You guys can go inside, the rest of you can check out a never-ending pasta bowl.”

“What? You said I was awesome! Now I have even get in because it’s raining?”

“Sorry Boris. The rest of these guys show up every week and try to get into the club, but you just show up from time to time. How would that make sense?”

“None of this makes sense. Come on Boris, let’s go get some breadsticks.” said Andretti.

Good teams run well, not the manufacturer.
It is not a coincidence that nearly all of Toyota’s success happened after Joe Gibbs Racing aligned with the manufacturer last fall. The knowledge and resources they provided to Toyota is what got all of the Toyota headed in the right direction, not the other way around.

Granted Toyota has a lot of money, which is a big reason why Gibbs decided to leave Chevrolet. But Gibbs is a top organization because they are organized, have lots of engineers and technology and know how to use their resources. The only major difference for Gibbs in 2008 is that they have three cars competing for wins instead of two. Gibbs was a top team with Pontiac, then Chevy and now Toyota. It would be the same thing if Roush-Fenway Racing switched to Toyota. After Jack Roush was done seething, stomping up and down and the steam stopped shooting from his ears, his teams would still run up front and compete for wins.

It’s easy to point to Gibbs’ early success this season and tie it to the manufacturer switch, but all you have to do is look at the other Toyota teams to see the truth. It takes a lot more than a rich manufacturer to succeed at NASCAR’s highest level.

Michael Waltrip Racing is not going to last long in the top 35 without a tighter operation.
Last year was unmitigated disaster for the three car team. The cars couldn’t consistently qualify, were slow once in the races and none of the three cars were close to the top 35. This year all three cars made the first five races and did enough to land on the good side of the top 35. Well, that lasted one week. David Reutimann lost his spot thanks to a bad transmission and Waltrip tried his best to wreck out of the top 35. No MWR driver has a better rating than 56.0 and the team has zero top tens. Bad luck will happen to every team, but it hurts more when the cars aren’t compensating with strong finishes.

Two years ago Bill Davis Racing raced Dodges with no manufacturer support. Blaney not only managed to keep the car inside the top 35, but he also posted a top 5 at Richmond and had several other strong runs for the one car underdog team (Yes, Michael Waltrip was technically a teammate, but he did his own deal). Last year with Toyota backing the year began with a flop, but Blaney again recovered to score some nice results. It looked like Blaney was outperforming the equipment and once the cars caught up, he could really show his skill. That might still be true, but the cars aren’t there yet and Blaney hasn’t exactly sparkled himself. Not only that, but the second BDR team folded after only one start this year.

Brian Vickers and Red Bull Racing are the only other Toyota team with a top ten this season. Not only has Vickers maneuvered his way into a solid top 20 position in the points, he is running consistently well. He has three top fifteens and would have had a fourth last weekend, but he ran out of fuel with less than ten laps left. The second Red Bull car is still struggling, but at least Mike Skinner is three for three in qualifying for races.

In conclusion, Gibbs Racing is good, the other Toyota teams are varying degrees of lousy. For as much paranoia that Toyota endures about ruining the Sprint Cup series, it’s pretty unfounded. Until they are to the point where Toyota can plug any team into their program and compete for wins, it’s time to realize that Toyota isn’t some monster that many fans believe.

Random Thoughts

• How Can Travis Kvapil and Yates Racing not get a sponsor?
  Kvapil is relatively young, has already won a Craftsman Truck Series title and is solidly inside the top 35. He scored a top 10 at Las Vegas and had solid top ten runs at California and Martinsville spoiled by mechanical problems (California) and a pit road crash (Martinsville). There are several cars without the luxury of a guaranteed starting spot that do have full sponsorship. How long will it take companies to realize that a sponsorship has more value if the rolling billboard is actually in the race.

• Where are the “Kyle Busch is so mature” campaigns now?
  In Saturday’s truck race, Kyle Busch sent 2nd place Johnny Benson spinning on the final turn of the final lap. Busch also spun, but his quote was very telling.
  

  I’m not happy with third. I want to go up there to the top. That’s what I’m here to do. To try to get the best possible finish I can for my guys and my team.

  It’s one thing to wreck another driver in the Cup series when you are going for points, but to do it in a series that you don’t run full time is another. It’s like being a guest in someone’s house. Saying you are a racer also does not grant carte blanch for aggressive driving at every turn. After his win at Atlanta, I wondered what would happen when something bad happened. I guess we’ll see this weekend.