Trouble in Turn2

The last seven seasons have seen the advent of a youth movement in NASCAR at the Cup level. Young Guns have taken over in large numbers and many have quickly found success. Since 2000 a rookie has won a race in every season except 2004. Going back to 2002 the recent rookie classes have been pretty impressive. 12 of 19 drivers have won races, nine have made a Chase appearance and one has won two championships. Not bad for a wave of drivers that some fans complained were ruining the sport (Toyota and open wheel drivers have since acquired that “honor”). So which rookie class featured the best rookies? It’s a tough decision. I decided to look at the various classes from 2002-2006. I didn’t rate the 2007 class because drivers deserve at least three seasons for a fair assessment. The only reason I included the 2006 class was because it included so many drivers with immediate success it was an exceptional case. Check out previous reviews: 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005.

Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer, Martin Truex Jr, Reed Sorenson, JJ Yeley, David Stremme, David Gilliland. Total wins: 6

The rookie class of 2006 was labeled as a special group and almost three years later that still holds true, but maybe not to the degree originally expected. The top three drivers of the class all made the 2007 Chase, won Cup races and appear set to compete at the top level for the next decade. The rest are still finding their way.

When Denny Hamlin was given a tryout in the #11 car at the end of 2005, it looked like nothing more than a placeholder while Joe Gibbs Racing could find another driver. Then Hamlin scored three top tens and won a pole in seven races. He smoothly slid into the #11 car on a fulltime basis for 2006 and immediately took off. While some drivers and analysts could see his talent, no one expected him to adjust to the Cup level so smoothly.

Right out of the gate, he won the Bud Shootout holding off teammate Tony Stewart and Dale Earnhardt Jr, both shrewd plate racers. At this time he hadn’t even won a Busch race prior to his promotion to Cup. He went on to win both Pocono races. On the strength of 4 top 5’s and 13 top 10’s he made the Chase field as a rookie. During the Chase he scored 4 more top 5’s to stay in contention until the latter stages of the Chase. His final numbers were impressive. He finished 3rd in the final standings, had 2 wins, 8 top 5’s, 20 top 10’s and easily won Rookie of the Year.

He followed up in 2007 with another win and a Chase berth. He spent the majority of the first 26 races in 2nd place in the standings and had numerous chances to win races. A disappointing Chase took some of the luster out of the season, but it was still an impressive sophomore season.

So far in 2008 Hamlin has won a race at Martinsville, scored 6 top 5’s and led more laps(696) through 21 races than all of 2005. A Chase spot appears sewn up and thanks to the fact that Joe Gibbs Racing builds the cars Hamlin drives he has a chance to win a Cup title in the coming years.

After winning back to back Busch championships in 2004 and 2005, Martin Truex Jr was more than ready for the Cup circuit. He was widely picked as the favorite for Rookie of the Year and quick success was assumed by almost everyone. So it was a little surprising when Truex struggled to an 19th place finish and failed to compete for wins. He had a few nice results scattered amongst a lot of crashes and poor finishes. His final numbers, 2 top 5’s and 5 top 10’s fell well short of expectations but by the end of the year he and rookie crew chief Kevin Manion were showing signs of figuring out the Cup game.

In 2007 Truex finally broke through. After he spent the first quarter of the season alternating between top 10 finishes and tough luck crashes, he finally caught a break and won the Nextel Open exhibition race. Two weeks later he cruised to his first Cup win at Dover. That win was one bookend of a hot summer that propelled him to a spot in the Chase. He finished with 1 win, 7 top 5’s and 14 top 10’s. While Truex hasn’t vaulted to stardom his DEI equipment also tends to be subpar. Truex is a solid all around driver and could be a big lure on the free agency market in 2009.

Clint Bowyer didn’t have the hype of Martin Truex Jr or Reed Sorenson or the overnight success of Denny Hamlin, but he did prove his toughness as a Cup rookie. Bowyer jumped out of the gates with a surprising 6th place finish in the Daytona 500. He hung inside the top 20 in points all season and registered a respectable 4 top 5’s and 11 top 10’s. He also hinted at his strength with strong runs at flat, short tracks like Phoenix and Loudon.

In 2007 Bowyer continued his ascent and locked down a spot in the Chase. He also won his first career Cup race at Loudon, in dominant fashion. Bowyer finisheda surprising third in the Chase standings and scored a total of 1 win, 5 top 5’s and 17 top 10’s. 2008 began well with a win at Richmond and is again in the hunt for a Chase spot. Another trait that has developed in Bowyer’s style is his ability to avoid DNF’s. Aside from 4 his rookie season, Bowyer has finished 100% of the races in the last two seasons. It helps offset his lack of laps at the front of the pack.

As a 19 year old Reed Sorenson was already running a full Busch Series schedule and winning 2 races. After a fourth place points finish, he was quickly promoted to the Cup Series to drive Chip Ganassi’s #41 car for the 2006 season. As expected for a 20 year old rookie, Sorenson’s season was filled with inconsistency. One week would see him crash early and finish in the 40’s and then follow it up with a top ten run. Despite only 1 top 5 and 5 top 10’s, it was clear that the young driver had talent.

Maybe the most surprising thing about Sorenson’s rookie season was that it was his best year to date. 2007 was expected to build on his rookie effort, but that improvement didn’t come. While his peripheral numbers (3 top 5’s, 6 top 10’s) were slightly better, his average finish, DNF’s and laps led were all worse. 2008 has been an even greater struggle. Through 22 races Sorenson sits in 30th place in the points and has mustered only two top 10’s and has ten sub-30 finishes. Despite the struggles, and they are not all Sorenson’s fault, he is still only 22 and talent doesn’t evaporate. Looking back on the class in 5-10 years may still portray a different story for Sorenson.

JJ Yeley had an impressive resume in sprint cars, winning the USAC triple crown. He moved to the Busch Series and then landed a Cup ride with Joe Gibbs Racing thanks in part to a personal recommendation from Tony Stewart. The general scouting report on Yeley was that he was talented but raw. He displayed some of his talent (1 top 5, 6 top 10’s, 1 pole) and a lot of the rawness (28 sub-30’s, 11 DNF’s) in his first two years with Gibbs. When Gibbs had the chance to sign Kyle Busch, Yeley was the obvious cut.

He was still considered a good prospect at the Cup level and signed with Hall of Fame Racing for 2008. Unfortunately Yeley could only manage 1 top 5 in 17 starts, lost his spot in the top 35 and failed to qualify for 4 races. That led to his firing from the #96 car after 22 races.

After several seasons of mild success in the Busch Series, David Stremme got his big break in 2006. Chip Ganassi promoted him to the #40 seat to replace Sterling Marlin. After five races Stremme was sitting on the outside of the top 35. This forced the team to switch to survival mode and simply qualify for races and essentially washed away Stremme’s season. He did manage to return to the top 35, but didn’t score a top ten and finished a disappointing 33rd in the final standings.

2007 brought a fresh start for Stremme and the #40 team. Stremme finished in the top 20 in five of the first six races and included his first Cup top ten. The summer wasn’t as kind and Stremme could only manage three top tens in total and suffered 14 sub 30 finishes. He was released after the season to make way for the incoming Dario Franchitti.

After a chain of events in August of 2006, the Robert Yates #38 car was suddenly vacant. Enter David Gilliland, who was a complete unknown only months earlier. After winning the Kentucky Busch race in an underfunded car Gilliland was suddenly a star in the making. While his truncated rookie season was a series of wrecks and backup cars, Gilliland did have a handful of promising runs. He won the pole at Talladega and finished 15th and then had two other nice runs at Atlanta and Phoenix.

He then won the pole for the Daytona 500 the following spring and scored his first top ten in the process. While Gilliland went on to show some improvement in 2007, it was sometimes hard to tell whether he was struggling as a driver or Yates no longer had the cars to keep up.

In 2008 Gilliland has displayed more progress. He has cut down on the wrecks and has scored ten top 20’s in 22 starts. While it’s doubtful he will become a superstar at the Cup level he looks set to be a solid driver capable of the occasional top 5 or win.

Verdict: Hamlin is already a star while Bowyer and Truex have the potential to challenge for wins and Chase berths. Sorenson’s potential is still there if he can put an ugly 2008 behind him. Yeley, Gilliland and Stremme will probably never be drivers that teams are built around but can certainly make a living shuttling between the Cup and Nationwide series.

Until last year the second Pocono race fell prior to the Brickyard 400. Under that arrangement we all believed that Pocono served as a tuneup for the Brickyard. We could catch a glimpse of who might run well at one of NASCAR’s elite events. Nevermind the fact that only two drivers, Jeff Gordon (’98) and Bill Elliott (’02) have won a Pocono race and the Brickyard 400 in the same season. We wanted to believe that the second Pocono had a place of meaning on the schedule. Now it’s the week after the Brickyard, granting it slightly more importance than the Pro Bowl in relation to the Super Bowl. It’s a points paying race, but boy is it hard for a fan to get excited about it. The one advantage Pocono does have is that it promises to be feature the longest green flag runs in three weeks and tires shouldn’t be an issue. I realize I’m hard on Pocono, but I also admit I will watch with the same weekly interest and the hope for a good race. The spring race was one of the more exciting Pocono finishes in recent years in fact.

What Happened Last Year

Dale Earnhardt Jr won his first Cup pole since 2002 but couldn’t hold back Kurt Busch. Busch led 175 of 200 laps and cruised to an easy victory. The race paralleled the points battle between the two drivers that also saw Busch eclipse Earnhardt Jr for 12th place and the final Chase spot. The race was also notable for the absence of Robby Gordon. He was busy sitting in a corner on timeout thanks to his antics at the Montreal Busch race the day before.

Notes

AJ Allmendinger and Red Bull Racing are only one or two solid runs from cracking the top 35 in owner points. Allmendinger failed to qualify for the first two races of the season and was then replaced by Mike Skinner for the next six. After returning to the car at Talladega, Allmendinger has run very well and only sits 63 points shy of 35th place Scott Riggs.

Chad McCumbee will drive the #45 for Petty Enterprises this weekend. McCumbee has failed to qualify at Texas and Dover, but did finish 25th in a Pocono race last year while subbing for Kyle Petty. Petty will return to the car next week at Watkins Glen. It doesn’t look like Petty Enterprises is in a huge rush to get Petty back in the seat which is the strongest signal yet that Petty is nearing retirement. Whether it’s Kyle Petty’s decision or not, more time out of the car will allow him to devote more time and energy to greater things like the Victory Junction Gang Camp. Petty definitely has some very personal reasons for remaining behind the wheel of the #45 and if it NASCAR rides were based on merit over performance Petty would have a ride for life.

5 Drivers Who Like Pocono

Jimmie Johnson has two wins in 13 starts. He only has one finish worse than 15th in his career which includes 4 top 5’s and 8 top 10’s. Johnson has run well all summer and more wins should follow his Indy triumph (please don’t call it momentum).

Kurt Busch has seven top fives including 2 wins and four 2nd place finishes.

Denny Hamlin won his first two times at Pocono in 2006. Since then he has never finished worse than 6th and has led 300 laps in only five starts.

Tony Stewart owns the third best driver rating(102.2) over the last seven Pocono events. He led 14 laps at the June race and appeared set for a top 5 run but was caught speeding on pit row, pinning him a lap down and relegated to 35th.

Ryan Newman has won the pole twice, the race once and has five other top 5’s. His 13.9 average finish is also above average.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Kurt Busch See above. No matter what the rest of Busch’s season looks like (and right now it looks bleak), he always finds a way to run well at the Triangle of Tedium.

Chump: Clint Bowyer Bowyer hasn’t run well at speedways all season and that trend will likely continue at Pocono.

Sleeper: AJ Allmendinger: Check out his recent speedway driver ratings: Pocono I(95.2), Michigan (79.7), Chicago (83.2), Indy (98.4). That’s a driver ready for some top ten finishes.

Check out One Bad Wheel for more Fantasy news and info on Sleepers.

Who Will Stay Awake Win?

Before I get to this week’s pick, it’s important to remind everyone of the cardinal rule of Fantasy sports: Don’t Outsmart Yourself. Over the past few weeks I have grown tired of choosing Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson to win races each week. So this past week for the Brickyard I decided to tab a darkhorse, Brian Vickers to win. Vickers finished 42nd with an engine failure. While Vickers has certainly impressed this year and is a front runner on speedways, Red Bull Racing isn’t quite ready for prime time and it cost me.

That means this week I’m sticking my hand back into the heavy favorites hat and pulling out a name.

In five races Denny Hamlin has a 130.4 driver rating. That is not the result of one fast car or lucking out. Denny Hamlin is simply awesome at Pocono. After a pit road mistake cost him the race at Indy, you can be sure that was a point of emphasis at the Gibbs shop this week.

This weekend TNT brings back their Wide Open coverage for the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona. More racing and fewer commercials sounds pretty good. What is even better is a good race at a fun track under the lights and 100 miles shorter than the Daytona 500 in February. It all adds up to one of the best race packages of the season. The Pepsi Coke Zero 400 is almost always an exciting race. Sure there was the monsoon of ought five that pushed the finish past midnight on the west coast, but most races are filled with crashes, daring passes for the lead (the lead!), and heck even some pretty cool one-off paint schemes.

And there’s something else about the plate tracks to like too. It’s the little rivalries at restrictor plate races that add the extra juice. They are four races that have very little bearing on the rest of the season, but teams often take more pride in their plate programs. The current top dogs, Gibbs and Hendrick could offer a great battle this year. So far Toyota, and more specifically Gibbs Racing have dominated the restrictor plate tracks in 2008. One win, four top fives and 57% of all the laps led at Daytona and Talladega. That’s pretty dominant. And that is why I think Hendrick Motorsports will be up to the challenge. Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr have all won at Daytona and are all very good in the draft. Not all of the cars will be around at the end, but that’s just part of the excitement.

What Happened Last Year

Gibbs teammates Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin wrecked each other while running 1-2 early in the race. That led to some bickering in the garage. Meanwhile Jamie McMurray edged Kurt and Kyle Busch for his first win since 2002. It was the closest finish in Daytona history (.005 seconds).

Five Drivers Who Like Daytona

Dale Earnhardt Jr won the 2001 Pepsi 400 and the 2004 Daytona 500. He has 6 top 5’s and 10 top 10’s in 17 starts.

Tony Stewart has two summer wins and has led 531 laps in ten races. That includes 151 of 160 at the 2005 race. He has 6 top 5’s and 10 top 10’s in 19 starts. He also is the only driver with a driver rating above 100 for the last seven Daytona races (108.1)

Jeff Gordon has six wins, most among active drivers. Gordon has recently adopted a “wait and see” approach, which worked at both Talladega events last year and almost paid off again this spring.

Jimmie Johnson has often served as Gordon’s wing man on mad dashes to the front late in races. But Johnson is perfectly capable of winning races himself. He has the highest average running position (9.8) of all drivers over the last seven races, meaning he is always in the lead pack.

Matt Kenseth owns a 92.4 driver rating and has led laps in four of the last five races at Daytona. He has scored 4 top 5’s and 12 top 10’s in his career at restrictor plate tracks.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Ryan Newman His Daytona 500 win was not a fluke. Penske has provided strong cars for Daytona and Talladega and Newman and Kurt Busch work well together.

Chump: Carl Edwards Edwards is good in the draft, but has lost his patience at times and that can be costly.

Sleeper: Elliott Sadler When it comes to restrictor plate races, Sadler is excellent at avoiding wrecks, picking the right lane and being around at the end to pick up a nice finish.

Who will win?

Hendrick and Penske cars will surely be strong with a splash of RCR mixed in (watch out for Clint Bowyer). Matt Kenseth and Jamie McMurray are typically strong at Daytona, but Ford is mired in a mini-funk right now. All of these teams will be in the lead pack, but who will win the race? Joe Gibbs. Seriously, take your pick of driver. Denny Hamlin led 32 laps and may have had the best car at the Daytona 500 if not for a pit road accident. Kyle Busch led 86 laps and could, and did, go anywhere he wanted to on the track. Tony Stewart wasn’t as good during the day, but came alive at the end of the race when the sun went down, led 16 laps and finished 3rd. The same pattern held true at Talladega when Hamlin and Stewart seemed able to do whatever they wanted at the front of the pack and Kyle Busch overcame early problems to pop up late and win. Fans of variety, surprise and parity turn away now. Kyle Busch is going to win again. Just because the winner might not be a surprise, the race should be anything but dull.

Let’s start with a few questions for New Hampshire. Will this race be in Kentucky or Las Vegas next year? Will we see a tight contest with lots of battles for the lead? Will we see a rout like Clint Bowyer’s 6 second win last fall? I don’t have any idea what will happen with Bruton Smith’s personal game of track Monopoly. As far as the race goes, I will hope it’s as exciting as the Phoenix race this spring, but will be keeping a pillow on standby.

In fairness, Loudon is a fine track. It’s tight and flat like Phoenix but lacks some of the quirkiness. The leaders usually don’t check out, but it is very hard to pass. This of course often leads to frustration. Frustration leads to emotion manifested as aggression. Aggression leads to contact. Contact leads to more emotion which leads to helmet tossing. And helmet tossing always equals fun. As a bonus, this year’s race is 301 laps instead of the lame 300 laps like prior years.

What happened last year

Dave Blaney was a surprise pole winner, the first for Toyota, but faded after the first pit stop. Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Martin Truex Jr each took turns leading before Denny Hamlin grabbed the lead with a late two-tire stop and held on for his only 2007 win. Jeff Gordon made a late run, but ran out of time. Hamlin edged Gordon by 0.068 seconds, the closest Loudon finish ever.

Some dudes who like Loudon

• Tony Stewart owns the best driver rating (117.9) at Loudon. He has 2 wins, 10 top 5’s and 11 top 10’s in 18 career starts.

• Martin Truex Jr scored two top 5’s last year. He led 47 laps and also won the 2005 Busch race. He is good at the flat tracks and also tends to shine in the Northeast.

• Jeff Gordon has three wins, but none since 1998. He does have three straight top 3 finishes.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Kevin Harvick Flat tracks and the #29 car just fit well together. He won the 2006 fall race at Loudon and has led 264 laps in his Cup career.

Chump: Kasey Kahne The Chump is again a tough choice, with almost everyone in the top 12 capable of running in the top 5 or winning. Kahne only has one top 5 and Evernham has never been great at Loudon or Phoenix.

Sleeper: Aric Almirola It’s a big stretch, but Almirola will likely drive the same car that Mark Martin nearly won with at Phoenix and finished 3rd at Richmond. Almirola can obviously drive, but with such a sporadic schedule it’s a Fantasy risk.

Who Will Win

The way Tony Stewart has run this year, he is overdue. It would actually be a pretty good publicity stunt for Stewart to begin paying late fees to charity for being overdue on his victory celebration. He is always strong at Loudon and barring any tangles with Ryan Newman, is usually around at the end. I’m really tempted to take Dale Earnhardt Jr, who has done nearly everything at Loudon but win. It’s hard to call him a darkhorse, but watch out for Matt Kenseth. Like Earnhardt Jr, Kenseth has been successful at New Hampshire albeit sans victory.

This week’s Cup race is at the uniquely shaped Poconnnghh. [wakes up]Sorry, Pocono Raceway. In my unofficial poll of Cup drivers I have interviewed, 100% have admitted that the Pocono race can get pretty long. The popular opinion is that Pocono races are at least 100 miles too long. While that may be true, and the actual racing could improve, calling a race at Pocono dull is not always true. Check out a few of the events in recent years:

• June 2004: Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick took turns spinning and hitting each other at the finish line. The spat prompted Harvick to sport a Matt Kenseth T-Shirt the following week at Michigan.
• June 2005: Carl Edwards, having never seen the track in person wins the race. He credits his win to playing a video game simulation.
• June 2006: Denny Hamlin spins, hits the concrete curb, suffers substantial damage while pulling a large patch of grass into the car, and still comes back to win in dominant fashion.
• July 2006: Tony Stewart “teaches” Clint Bowyer a lesson about give and take…by spinning him into Carl Edwards. The innocent victim Edwards responds by spinning Stewart on pit road. A furious Bowyer (utilizing his patented Dolph Lundgren glare) confronts Stewart after the race.

See? That’s why it’s important to watch the race. Monday morning you’ll need to know what to talk about.

What Happened Last Year

Denny Hamlin was on his way to dominating his third straight Pocono race, when rain shuffled everything. The result was Jeff Gordon using pit strategy to gain the lead and then narrowly edging Ryan Newman before the rain fell. It was Gordon’s 4th of six wins and emphasized how teams were willing to gamble on track position in hopes of precious Chase bonus points for wins.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers (on the track, not your couch)

Champs: Ryan Newman He nearly won last year, has the fourth best driver rating (101.9) and his career Pocono line reads 1 win, 5 top 5’s and 6 top 10’s in 12 starts. Penske knows how to set up a car here.

Chumps: Clint Bowyer I admit, this week has me a little stumped. Bowyer has 2 top 10’s in 4 starts, but only a 72.2 driver rating.

Sleepers: Michael McDowell This pick is Sleeper with a capital “S”, but here’s why. He won an ARCA race and finished 6th in the other last year at Pocono. His problem this year has been wrecks, which typically aren’t an epidemic at the long track. Why not?

Who Will Win?

Is Big Brown entered? If not, then you have to look at one organization. Joe Gibbs Racing knows how to get around Pocono. Denny Hamlin has 2 wins, 3 top 5’s and 4 top 10’s in four races. Tony Stewart has 1 win, 5 top 5’s and 13 top 10’s in 18 starts. Maybe JGR has a killer NASCAR simulation game. Whatever it is, Stewart is ready to finally ready to make a deposit in his 2008 win account.

I just finished watching Days of Thunder, and despite knowing almost everything that would happen, I still found it more enteraining than Sunday’s Best Buy 400 at Dover. Officially the race had 17 green flag lead changes. In reality it was a three car race with most lead changes (9) only occurring during green flag pit stops. Essentially Kyle Busch’s pit crew beat Carl Edwards’ and Greg Biffle’s. By lap 160 Jeff Gordon made his way into fifth place and the top five never changed again. One point to make was that the lack of excitement didn’t have very much to do with the lack of lead lap cars, it was simply a race with long green flag runs and not much passing. There were times when cars would ride nose to tail for 20 or 30 laps with neither able to pull away. Busch summed up the lack of excitement this way,

“It wasn’t I guess all that exciting. You know, that’s a product of what we’ve got going on here. We’re working on trying to make our cars go as fast as they can. The faster we make them go, the more aero-dependent they’re going to be. The more you put out on the racetrack, the more the air is going to get screwed up. You know, we’re all fighting for space. We’re all fighting for air. We’re all fighting for everything. Sorry it wasn’t exciting.”

It’s not Busch’s fault the race was boring, nor is it the teams’ fault. With the CoT still in its infancy, there will continue to be snoozers like we saw at Dover. It’s not pretty to watch, but expect more of the same as teams, Goodyear and NASCAR all get a grasp on the car.

The one nugget of excitement came on lap 19 when several top cars collected after Elliott Sadler and David Gilliland made contact. First Tony Stewart, then Denny Hamlin and finally Bill Elliott and Scott Riggs all took turns diving on the hog pile in turn 2. As you might expect, the reactions were varied. First Stewart:

“I take 100% responsibility — it’s my fault for being even anywhere close to Elliott (Sadler). If I’m within a half a lap of him, I expect that to happen. It’s my fault — I’m the one that hit him. When I hit him it caused all the guys behind us to wreck. So it’s my fault.”

Obviously there is still some residual ill-will from Stewart for the wreck at Darlington. Stewart has had wrecks in three of the last five races, and last week had a win snuffed out by a flat tire. Common sense says Stewart will rebound during the summer months, but he had similar problems in 2006 and failed to make the Chase. It’s definitely something to watch.

Meanwhile teammate Denny Hamlin received a lot of heat for plowing into the wreck late. It did appear that other drivers managed to slow down in less time than Hamlin, but Elliott and Riggs were even further behind Hamlin and still couldn’t stop in time.

“It’s so tight off of turn two right there. I feel bad for Elliott (Sadler). I came piling in there way late. I had the 43 (Bobby Labonte) right on my bumper trying not to get hit from him. When I heard wreck off turn two I immediately was on the brakes. It’s just these cars don’t stop as well as they had in the past. Luckily, I wasn’t the last one. It looked like guys even behind me piled in there. It’s just part of the race track.”

While I find it a little easy to blame the track and the heavier car, something obviously caused problems for numerous cars in the accident. After his incident last weekend in the Nationwide race, Hamlin is probably not a popular driver with many fans, but it’s not really fair either.

Other Notes

Nice runs by Dave Blaney, Travis Kvapil and Juan Pablo Montoya. All scored top 12’s. Meanwhile Sam Hornish Jr finished 19th to return to the top 35. The finish was his second top 20 and moved him all the way to 33rd in the owners standings. Meanwhile thanks to a steep 150 point penalty earlier this week and a bad wreck on Sunday, Scott Riggs and the #66 car fell outside the top 35. With the other Haas car missing another race, things are getting tough in a hurry for Haas-CNC.

Fox did a good job this year with their NASCAR coverage (although I could have passed on the letter grades feature today). Now it’s on to TNT. At least Kyle Petty will keep things fresh.

It’s a stupid baseball statistic, but it makes a lot of sense in NASCAR. The close and late statistic has begun to creep into baseball discussion. How does a hitter fare when it’s a one or two run game and in the seventh inning or later. The trouble with using this criteria in baseball is that a run is important regardless of what inning it is scored, they all count the same (no matter what the knucklehead on talk radio might tell you). In NASCAR the only thing that matters is who is around at the end. A driver could be terrible all day, but if they can figure out how to lead the one lap that matters, then all is forgotten. Look at some of the races this year. Ryan Newman at Daytona and Jeff Burton at Bristol both won by passing more dominant cars in the final laps. Burton is somewhat of an expert on leading at the right time. His last three Cup wins have come from a total of 9 laps led. That’s peaking at the right time and ultimately is what matters.

The key is making your way to the front at the right time. If a team can get into the top five in the final 10-15% of a race, that’s close enough to be in position to win. It obviously doesn’t guarantee victory, sometimes one car is going to dominate no matter what, but it increases your chances. A top five position with means that you can capitalize if another car slips up, or allows you to make a daring pass and hang on for the final laps.

How do you get track position at the end?

There are three basic ways that a team can use to get prime track position near the end of a race.
A Quick car- The most obvious, and usually most assured way to climb into the top 5 or better is to have a fast car. Teams spend the first 300-400 miles of a race improving the handling of their cars so that they are turning the quickest laps at the end. Good teams like the #48, #24 and #20 don’t always spend an entire afternoon in the top 5, but suddenly with 50 laps to go they appear, causing fans (and probably rival drivers) to ask, “where did he come from?”

Quick Pitstops- A fast car is not always enough to get the job done. Your driver has the fastest car all day, dominating the rest of the field when a caution comes out with 30 laps left. After a slow pit stop, the car comes out third or fourth and just can’t handle the same in traffic. Even worse, the crew makes a mistake like missing a lugnut or letting a tire roll outside the pit box. Suddenly a top five car is relegated to a top ten car or worse.

On the flipside, a team has a good car, but just can’t pass the leader on the track. Beating the leader out of the pits is a way to get that track position and possibly a win.

Quick Thinking- If a team doesn’t have the track position, and they don’t have a fast enough car to power to the front, sometimes it falls to the crew chief to take a calculated risk. If everyone pits with 20 laps left, a car can take two tires or stay out on the track to gain a prime spot for the restart. Or during green flag pit stops, maybe the team comes in early to enjoy more laps on fresh tires.

When rain threatens, teams are more apt to gamble on track position. Look at last year’s June Pocono race. Jeff Gordon and Casey Mears had decent cars, but staying on the same pit cycles as everyone else wasn’t going to improve their positions beyond mid-pack. They staggered their pit stops and Gordon won the race and Mears scored an unlikely top five.

Why Do We Care?

In order to see measure who was in position to win races, I looked at the laps led in the final 15% of a race. I chose 15% because at the majority of tracks, this is larger than the fuel window and so at least one pit stop would fall in the final 15% of these races (this might have to be adjusted for short tracks). In 2007 the #48, #24 and #20 were the top three cars in laps led in the final 15% of races. Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon won a combined 16 races and each scored victories through the different methods. In some races they were simply the strongest cars that would not be denied no matter the circumstances. Other races saw the two cars use pit strategy to get out front or simply be in position to capitalize on others’ mistakes. Contrast that with Dale Earnhardt Jr. He led 433 laps over 17 races in 2007 but only led 1 lap in the final 15% of any race. Whether it was engine failure, crashes, or simply losing the handling on the car, Earnhardt wasn’t around at the end of races last year and as a result went winless. Here is the top ten drivers with the most laps led in the final 15% of races for 2007.

[A huge thanks to Mike Forde at NASCAR statistical services for the data]

My theory is that while it doesn’t always pay off, the teams that consistently put themselves within striking distance of the lead, or better yet lead laps at the critical point in races will win more races over a season. Later this week I will look at the Close and Late stats for 2008 and who is ready to break through.

I realize this is something new, and a fairly long-winded explanation, but I would love some feedback on this. Is this valuable information or just nonsense? Do certain drivers peak at the end of races, while others lead a lot of hollow laps? Is 15% the right number to measure? Any feedback is appreciated. Look for part II on Friday.

Almost every driver has that one track where they just can’t seem to win. It’s like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football. No matter how well the approach is, how many different tactics he tried, it always ended with Lucy pulling the ball away. \Here’s a list of ten drivers still waiting for the big breakthrough at different tracks. The list features a lot of domination in the form of fruitless laps (laps led without winning), some close calls and plenty of heartbreak.

• Ryan Newman at Lowe’s In 14 career starts Newman has started from the pole times, scored three top five finishes and five top tens. He has also led 243 laps, the most of any active driver without a win at Lowe’s. He nearly won the 2007 fall race but a flat tire with three laps left sent him into the wall.

• Sterling Marlin at Short Tracks You would think someone with the credentials of Sterling Marlin would be able to score at least one short track win in a career spanning 32 years and 162 short track starts. Marlin has led 1221 laps and finished in the top five 12 times, but never as the top dog.

• Jeff Gordon at Texas-Gordon has 5 top fives and 326 laps led in15 career Texas starts. Texas and Homestead are the only Cup tracks where Gordon has been shut out of Victory Lane. It’s still hard to rank too high on the agony chart when you have won virtually race at almost every track on the circuit.

• Kurt Busch at a road course Busch has led 99 laps at the two Cup road courses, Sonoma and Watkins Glen. That is the highest number for all drivers without a win to show for it. He has finished 3rd, 4th and 5th at Sonoma. While he doesn’t have a top five at Watkins Glen, he did win the 2006 pole and lead 38 laps before getting caught entering the pits before they were open, ruining his chance at a win.

• Denny Hamlin at Richmond He only has five Cup starts at his home track, but has already seen his share of disappointment. He has two poles, two top fives a second, third and sixth place and led 448 laps but no champagne. He won the 2006 pole for the fall race, but then lost a cylinder. Then this year dominated the race only to cut a tire in the final 20 laps.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr at Martinsville 748 laps led and seven top five finishes in 17 career starts. Junior is still waiting for that first grandfather clock.

• Matt Kenseth at Chicago For a track without much history, Matt Kenseth has had several close calls at Chicago. In 2005 he dominated the race leading 176 laps but was snookered by Dale Earnhardt Jr on the final pit stop. In 2006 he again dominated leading 112 laps but was bumped and spun by Jeff Gordon with four laps left. He finished 2nd again last year to Tony Stewart.

• Jeremy Mayfield at almost everywhere Of active drivers, Mayfield has led the most laps that didn’t result in a win at Bristol and Darlington, Rockingham and the second most at Dover. With his recent struggles, it’s easy to forget that Mayfield was a pretty good driver in his prime.

• Tony Stewart at Talladega Eight second place finishes at the Alabama track show how close Smoke has come. In 2005 he was narrowly beat by Dale Jarrett when the caution flag flew on the final lap. He has also led the last nine Talladega races and 244 total laps in his career. At least his consolation was a Nationwide win this spring.

• Mark Martin at Daytona It’s hard to tell if Martin hates Daytona because he can’t seem to win there, or he can’t win because he hates it. Feelings aside, he nearly pulled off the feel good win last year before Kevin Harvick was declared the winner when the official sat on the caution flag. In 46 career starts, Martin has nine top 5’s, 16 top 10’s, 241 laps led, and a best finish of 3rd.

So what do you think? Who will be the first one off this list? Maybe Sterling Marlin will crush at Bristol.

Kasey Kahne won the All-Star race thanks in part to the fans. He finished 5th in the Sprint Showdown, but made the feature event from the fans voting him. I’m sure some people will say he didn’t deserve to make the race, but so what? Involving the fans in an exhibition race is the whole point. All-Star games in every sport see players that don’t deserve to make it, but wind up in the starting lineup every year. Give Kahne credit for parlaying his spot into a giant check (the more I think about it, the more I want to win a physicaly giant check. Even if it’s for $5, I want a big check.).

Kahne’s win also highlights how the track changes from day to night. He didn’t run particularly well in the qualifying heat but was far better when the track was cooler. It’s hard to cull a lot of information from this weekend and apply it to the Coca Cola 600, but that is one point to remember. In a 400 lap race we will see cars struggle in the first 100-200 laps but then look a lot better in the second half of the race.

-Dale Earnhardt Jr made an interesting observation about that relating to the 600.

I’ll tell you one thing I was surprised about was how much my car changed from the start of the run to the end of the run in 25 laps. I would go from real tight to real, real loose and we’re going to have to run 60 laps in the 600 on gas and you will be hanging on for dear life. It should be a real tough, tough 600. Probably tougher than any other one any of us has ever ran.

Long green flag runs at intermediate tracks haven’t been kind to the CoT. Hopefully the Lowe’s test will help, but as Junior noted things could get dull this weekend.

• If Joe Gibbs Racing is going to have a race where they lose three engines during the weekend, it may as well be an exhibition race. Of course if you’re going to pick a weekend to experiment with engines, well this is the weekend for that too. According to Denny Hamlin, that’s exactly what they did.
  

  “This is definitely experimental ‘All-Star only’ racing. We came out here with our guns loaded and unfortunately our gun went off a little bit before the end of the race. It just wasn’t enough. We knew this engine wasn’t going to go 500 miles. It was built for just a few more laps past 100 and it just didn’t make it.”

• Thumbs up for AJ Allmendinger for winning the undercard race, the Spring Showdown. After really struggling to get his NASCAR career on track, he finally had a positive breakthrough.

  I feel like I won the Daytona 500. Nobody understands how much this means to me after what we went through as a team. It may be just an All-Star Showdown, but this means the world to me. These guys — everybody at Red Bull Racing Team and Toyota — they’ve stuck behind me.

  After Red Bull replaced Allmendinger with Mike Skinner for five races, it was reasonable to believe that Allmendinger may not get another chance in the #84. Obviously 40 good laps won’t mean much in a points paying race, but it is proof that he’s capable of running much better than he’s shown so far. He did score his career best finish last fall at Lowe’s (15th). The fact that he also accepted 100% of the blame for bumping Elliott Sadler into the wall also shows he’s learning the political side of NASCAR too.

• I’m all for new and creative ideas, but I don’t think the burnout contest is one of them. Maybe I’m in the minority, but there’s not much variety in burnouts. Obviously it’s different being at the race and watching, but for a televised event it’s pretty lame.

  It’s kind of like where the NBA dunk contest is now. All the good, creative dunks have already been done, so everything is pretty vanilla.

For more racing news, check out Racing Nation

In most years Darlington is one of the most baffling tracks to figure out. Teams and drivers struggle with a good setup and by the time they figure it out, their tires are already worn out. The simple reason is that Darlington was such a unique track. The way the surface ate up tires made it extremely challenging and there wasn’t really an apt comparison found on the Cup circuit. This year will feature a new racing surface for the first time in 13 years. The egg-shaped track is still unique and plenty challenging, but the race will be less about tire wear. The rapid tire wear usually separated the top drivers from the top engineers. Now that factor is probably eliminated from the equation. The good news is that the race still promises to be one of the best of the season.

What Happened Last Year

For the second straight week rain moved the race to Sunday afternoon. This caused several overheating issues for teams. Clint Bowyer won the pole, but it was quickly apparent that Denny Hamlin was the class of the field. He lead 179 laps but a bad pit stop cost him not only the lead but any track position edge he previously owned. That opened up the door for Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon to emerge. Gordon’s car began to steam and kick water out of the hood under cautions. After most of the leaders pitted on the final caution, Gordon stayed out in order to keep his engine from killing. The move paid off as he was able to hold off Johnson to win his seventh Darlington race.

Notes

• Johnny Mantz won the 1950 inaugural Southern 500 thanks to tire strategy. Most of the hares blew through their tires while Mantz played the tortoise and steadily made his way to the finish line. An incredible 75 cars took the green flag, while 25 others went home due to the top 75 owner’s points rule (note: Top 75 rule may not be true).

• Of all active drivers with Darlington wins, only Jeff Burton, Greg Biffle, Mark Martin and Sterling Marlin have not won a Cup championship. The other active winners are Jeff Gordon, Bill Elliott, Dale Jarrett, Jimmie Johnson and Bobby Labonte.

• Jeremy Mayfield has led the most laps(321) among active drivers without winning. Donnie Allison led an incredible 878 without finding Darlington’s victory lane, the most among all drivers.

• Anyone want to venture a guess on the number of times the announcers mention Darlington Stripe? I would say a number twice as many as the number of cars with actual stripes. Don’t get me wrong, I love the fact that the track is so challenging it’s almost impossible to avoid contact with the wall, but the incessant jabbering about said stripes gets a little annoying.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

• Champ Bet against Jeff Gordon at Darlington at your own peril. 7 wins, 15 top 5’s in 27 starts and three straight top 2 finishes.

• Chump It might be the only time all year where I feel comfortable choosing Tony Stewart as a chump. For whatever reason Stewart has not found success at Darlington.

• Sleeper It’s easy to pick Mark Martin every week in this category, but that’s not much of a sleeper, now is it? Matt Kenseth is hardly a sleeper either, but his 2008 struggles mean he sits 21st in the points. A nice run this Saturday would fix his Sleeper status.

My Fearless Winner Prediction

Due to some bad luck in past years Carl Edwards isn’t known for his prowess at Darlington, but he has a number of things going for him. His car control is excellent and Edwards and Roush-Fenway Racing have obviously jumped to an early advantage on speedways. He scored a top five in his first Darlington race back in 2004 and followed it up with a top ten in 2005. Rocks knocked his oil belt off and killed the motor in 2006, although he was running in the top five at the time. Then last year he led 33 laps before he was caught speeding on pit road. He battled back for a top ten, but again finished below where he deserved.