Trouble in Turn2

Carl Edwards

Carl Edwards rebounded from a sluggish 2006 to return to Victory Lane, secure a Chase spot, and to remind people why he is one of the most promising drivers in the sport. Expect more of the same in 2008.

Edwards posted 3 wins, 10 top 5’s and 15 top 10’s, with an average finish of 13.9. His numbers look a lot like 2005. The difference is that 2007 was a lot tougher for Edwards. In 2005 Roush Racing was the dominant force and the wins and top 5’s came rather easy, even for someone in their first full Cup season. 2007 saw Roush-Fenway come out of the gates slowly. Edwards couldn’t just hop in his car and rely on having one of the best cars. His results were based more on running well and holding on for good finishes.

He also won his first Busch title in comfortable fashion. It’s amazing that running an extra 35 races a year– sometimes in different cities than the Cup race—that it doesn’t seem to affect Edwards’ Cup runs. He is like Kevin Harvick in the fact that they just enjoy racing.

One thing that helped Edwards last year was the full time return of crew chief Bob Osborne. The two had success in 2005 and that chemistry returned in 2007 in a similar way.

A lot was made of his little dust-up with teammate Matt Kenseth after the Martinsville race. Part of the reason it was so surprising was his feint punch at Kenseth and the accompanied smug grin. As a rookie, Edwards was the “aw shucks, I’m just happy to be here mister.” People saw the Martinsville incident as out of character or that Edwards has changed, but Edwards is a fierce competitor and was upset.

Roush-Fenway’s intermediate program is one of the best in the sport and the cars should return to the front of the field at 1.5 and 2 mile tracks. Roush-Fenway might have started slowly on the CoT, but by the end of the season they were back to being one of the top teams in NASCAR. A big move was promoting crew chief Robbie Reiser to GM. Reiser has long been considered one of the top crew chiefs in the sport and now all five Roush teams will have access to his skill and knowledge.

The organization is well rounded at most tracks, but the cars really shine at the high speed 1.5 and 2 mile tracks. Michigan and California are especially strong for the team (15 combined wins).

For Edwards personally, he has a very concrete strength. In 2007 he won at Bristol and Dover, plus a Busch win at Nashville. There is something about that unique surface for Cousin Carl. Of course he runs pretty well at a lot of other tracks too. Darlington, Texas, Atlanta, and Michigan all fall in Edwards’ wheelhouse. Edwards is good enough to make the Chase and win 2-3 races each year, 10 top 5’s and 15 top 10’s.

Kevin Harvick finished 3rd on the money list, won the two richest races of 2007, the Daytona 500 and the Nextel All-Star Race, made the Chase, and had zero DNF’s. And the year was a major disappointmentAfter a major breakthrough in 2006, Harvick took a step backwards in 2007 and became a survivor as opposed to a front runner. Harvick is one of the most talented drivers in the sport and everything is still in place at Richard Childress for a major rebound in 2008

The season began on an incredible high. He won a dramatic Daytona 500 and followed that up by nearly winning the next week at California. He was catching leader Matt Kenseth until he got a flat tire under the final caution. After that, things cooled off. Four of the next five races ended with finishes of 25th or worse. The rest of the year was spent in the NASCAR underground. He would occasionally pop up to lead laps at a race here (Phoenix) and there (Chicago), but rarely was he challenging for wins (Richmond and Indy). In fact, the most attention he got after his All-Star win at Charlotte was for his face-washing/shoving incident with Juan Pablo Montoya at Watkins Glen.

All of his numbers dipped from 2006. His laps led number dropped by 70%, wins went from 5 to 1 and top 5’s from 15 to 4. He also had the worst average finish (15.5) among Chasers. At this point you might think I’m being too hard on Harvick. After all, he did make the Chase (along with his two teammates), he won the biggest race of the season and finished in 10th place overall. And all of that is quite an improvement compared to RCR’s recent past. All of this is true, but the truth is that Harvick is capable of so much more.

Harvick didn’t score as many top tens, but he had 28 top 20’s. That speaks to his ability to avoid trouble and finishing races. Harvick is an interesting test case for a theory I’ve had. Is avoiding DNF’s a skill? It sounds like a ridiculous question. When you see a driver getting caught up in someone else’s wreck the easy thought is tough luck.

However, in seven Cup seasons, Harvick has had zero or one DNF five times. In 250 career Cup races he only has 13 DNF’s total. The same pattern is found in his Busch career. So does that mean Harvick is simply luckier than other drivers? Answering yes to that sounds even more ridiculous than chalking DNF’s up to luck. Obviously there are races where Harvick has problems and just rides around to finish the race, but he is doing something to minimize that kind of situation. He is known for being very committed to sponsors and finishing races could be something Harvick puts greater value in than other drivers. It still doesn’t completely explain how Harvick can consistently run in the top ten and compete for wins but not wreck. It’s an impressive, if not uncommon, trait that helps make Harvick a top driver.

So what will 2008 look like for Happy Harvick? For starters, there is his ability to win on almost any type of track. If it’s flat, Kevin Harvick will find his way to the front. Phoenix, Loudon, Richmond, Indy and Chicago are all places that Harvick excels at. He also has wins at Bristol, Daytona and Watkins Glen proving his versatility.

Maybe the greatest weakness for the #29 team is the high speed intermediate tracks like California, Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte. Finding a comfortable setup at these tracks will be crucial for crew chief Todd Berrier. RCR did a good job last year of being above average at the CoT tracks. This year the goal has to be improving from above average to excellent, or in other words joining the Hendrick and Gibbs’ neighborhood of excellence.

Harvick’s talent is unquestioned; he can win on almost any type of track, he is incredible at avoiding danger on the track and RCR’s equipment should be even better in 2008. Making the Chase is fine and good, but it’s only the first step for a team like the #29 car. I expect 3 wins, 10 top 5’s, 18 top 10’s and for Harvick to threaten for a Cup title. Harvick has been given all the tools to compete for a championship, and as the proverb says, “to whom much is given, much is expected.”

Martin Truex Jr’s breakout 2007 season appeared to many as an overnight sensation, but his path to the Chase really began in September of 2006. That’s when he started popping into the top 10 on a consistent basis and that ran right into the following year.

It’s easy to think the tipping point came at Dover when Truex won his first career Cup race, but the truth is the payoff came two weeks earlier when he won the All-Star challenge at Lowe’s. Prior to that race, Truex had consistently run well for most of the year and good chunks of 2006, but lacked the end product. Sure the win was an undercard for an exhibition race, but in a way it realized the potential of the team. That began a run of four top 3 finishes in the four races from Dover to Loudon that launched him into the Chase.

Most of the attention for Truex was initially all related to Dale Earnhardt Jr’s departure. Then it turned to stories about Truex becoming the new leader of DEI, and by the end of the year Truex was making headlines for his weekly successes on the track.

The point standings don’t give the full picture for how improved Truex and the #1 team were in 2007. He spent 89 percent of the laps on the lead lap. Only Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth were better. That means when Truex was on the track, he was running for positions. His 13.6 average running position was 9th best.

Truex achieved success despite several bad results out of his control. The midseason engine merger with DEI and RCR didn’t help any of the DEI teams and Truex suffered two of his three engine DNF’s after the merger. He lost a strong run at Chicago (started 2nd, 12 laps led) due to a sour engine. Later he had another strong car at Talladega before a wave of engine failures wiped out not only the #1, but almost all of the seven cars equipped with the DEI/RCR engine. He was the class of the Atlanta field, leading 135 laps but got caught up in a wreck with Denny Hamlin on a restart.

Two of the better tracks for Truex are the two Northeast stalwarts, Loudon and Dover. Aside from his June Dover win, he also has 3 top 5’s and 4 top 10’s in 8 combined career starts. Texas, Atlanta and Michigan have also reaped good results, and Truex is especially strong at Texas where he won the pole in the fall race. If he can get enough drafting help, Truex is also a proven talent at Talladega and Daytona too.

Maybe the biggest surprise is Truex’s lack of success at short tracks. He has zero top tens in 12 short track starts. It’s surprising because of how well Truex ran in the Busch Series. He had 3 short track wins and 6 top 5’s in 15 Busch starts. The short track drought will end at the Cup level too.

Truex and crew chief Bono Manion have been together for four years and that has created a solid base for the #1 team. It took almost all of 2006 to build their Cup notebook, but they are now a team that shows up on a weekly basis with cars that can qualify well, run well and best of all, Truex can finish well. Now if they got some racing luck thrown in, Truex could be a major force. One trait of Manion is his willingness to gamble. Manion left Truex out at Phoenix and Homestead in the hopes of stealing wins with track position. Neither instance turned into a win, but that attitude could be a benefit in future situations.

The biggest question facing Truex for 2008 is what kind of equipment DEI will provide. The company has a spotty record when it comes to building fast, reliable equipment on a consistent basis. Parts failures in engines, brakes, or power steering happen on every team, but they seem to occur with more frequency at DEI. In the wake of Earnhardt Jr leaving, a lot of changes have been made both ogranizationally and personnel-wise. That could be a huge gain or leave Truex with a small margin of error. Truex is good enough to make the Chase and Manion has done really well to improve the cars on race weekends. Look for all of Truex’s primary numbers to improve and gain a spot in the Chase. Once he’s there, the tracks line up nicely for Truex to surprise, but only if the cars can keep up with the other top teams.

The most common phrases people use to describe second-year Cup driver Denny Hamlin are things like, “He can’t keep this up,” or “just wait for the letdown”. After two straight Chase berths and three Cup wins, what if the letdown never comes? What if Hamlin is simply one of the top Cup drivers?

Based on his disappointing 12th place finish, it might look like Hamlin regressed from his 3rd place finish in 2006, but that’s not true at all. His 97.0 driver rating and 918 laps led proved he was a front runner. In 2006 Hamlin was more often avoiding trouble and compiling strong finishes. It was a sound strategy for a rookie and Hamlin raised the bar last year.

Hamlin only won one race (Loudon) in 2007, but he could have easily won four or five. Hamlin had good runs at Bristol, Phoenix, Talladega, Darlington, Pocono only to see wins slip through his fingers in one way or another. At Bristol it was a faulty oil pump cable. He was class of the field at Phoenix, Darlington and Pocono only to lose on a pit road speeding penalty, a bad pit stop and rain respectively. He ran out of gas at Talladega due to a questionably long caution period. And in the most bizarre race of the season, Hamlin lost the lead at Atlanta when his car sputtered on the penultimate restart due to water in the fuel tank.

Hamlin and crew chief Mike Ford enter their third season together and probably will stick to their regular gameplan, which means keeping things simple, avoiding trouble and not making silly mistakes. Based on preseason testing, any concerns about Joe Gibbs Racing’s switch to Toyota should be quelled. Hamlin and teammates Kyle Busch and Tony Stewart were all near the top of the speed charts. The combination of the Gibbs’ organization’s knowledge and Toyota’s resources and engineering is going to make a lot of horsepower and speed.

Hamlin’s favored tracks are the short, tight tracks like Phoenix, Loudon, Richmond and Martinsville. He takes great pride in his Virginian roots and a win at Richmond or Martinsville would be very popular. Based on his results at the two tracks, that win is likely to come this year. He has seven top tens and two poles in 9 total races at the two Virginia tracks. Hamlin also runs well at Texas, California and Pocono. In fact Hamlin has been downright dominant at Pocono. In his four Cup starts he has 2 wins, 3 top 5’s and 4 top tens plus 283 laps led.

Hamlin is capable of success at nearly any track, but he also showed an emotional side in 2007 that proved costly on several occasions. At Daytona, he got together with teammate Tony Stewart and both wrecked while running 1st and 2nd. That led to both drivers blaming the other and ended with both being called into the boss’ office. Later in the year Hamlin tangled with Kyle Petty at Dover. After the race he refused to accept responsibility for the crash, despite both drivers being at least partially culpable. Not only did the incidents scuff his reputation, but they also were the worst finishes of the year. It’s hard enough to avoid bad results without exacerbating the situation. That goes double in the Chase.

Based on what Toyota has shown so far, Hamlin has a great chance to make the Chase again. Hamlin is good enough at most tracks that he will be in position to compete for wins. There is no reason why Hamlin will miss the Chase, but strange things happen in NASCAR–especially how competitive this year promises to be. Hamlin should win a race or two, score 8 to 10 top 5’s and be in the hunt for a Chase spot.

Rebound. That’s the big buzz word for Kasey Kahne and the #9 team entering 2008. It not only describes his on track performance but also his public image. On the track Kasey Kahne didn’t win a race, scored his first top 5 in August and had only 8 top 10’s all season. He was usually fast on Fridays, but would sink like a mob-hit victim in concrete shoes on Sundays.

His off track image also took a few hits. Kahne appeared entitled at times during the 2007 season. At Richmond he got into a wreck with David Stremme and then blamed Stremme for the crash while taking personal shots at Stremme’s physique. He also insinuated intentionally crashing at Phoenix late in the year. The incident that made the most news was a run-in with a security guard at Homestead. The details are unclear, but the result was a pending lawsuit that claims Kahne shoved the security guard to the ground. Not exactly the squeaky clean, boy-next-door image Kahne had developed in his first three Cup seasons.

The season began on a good note. Kasey Kahne and Elliott Sadler both scored top 10’s at Daytona. When the Cup teams hit the intermediate tracks it was discovered that the Everham cars had miscalculated the baseline when building their speedway cars. This meant the cars were a handful and rendered uncompetitive. So Kahne and teammates Elliott Sadler and Scott Riggs spent the bulk of 2007 turning laps instead of running at the front of the pack.

Evernham was able to at least solve some of the issues on the #9 car and by late summer Kahne was again running in the top ten. His best effort came at Bristol when he dominated. Winning the pole, leading 305 laps and finishing 2nd to Carl Edwards. Of his 8 top ten finishes, 6 came in the final 12 races, including four on intermediate tracks.

Kahne has a lot of positives to cling to entering 2008. His team director Kenny Francis returns for the third straight season. The two won 6 races together in 2006 and obviously have a good understanding. Ray Evernham also has a new, more specialized role at GEM. Instead of trying to do everything at the company, Evernham can now focus on the competition aspect of the company. That means he is free to float among the different departments and address specific problems. All three cars should enjoy this benefit, none more than Kahne’s ride. Another positive is the added funding that new sponsor Budweiser will contribute.

Which way will GEM go in ’08? Given that it’s an even year, Kasey Kahne figures to have a nice season. In ’04 and ’06 Kahne averaged 12.5 top 5’s and 16.5 top 10’s. In ’05 and ’07 his averages were 3 top 5’s and 8 top 10’s. Given the small sample size it says two things. One, it’s probably not a very reliable predictor, but also that Evernham has typically been slow to adapt to changes. 2005 was the introduction of the new aero-package and 2007 was the CoT. 2008 is another year of change with the CoT going full time plus Dodge’s introduction of a new engine midseason. That means Kahne sustaining success is no sure thing. He is still growing as a driver, but his wheelhouse for success stems from intermediate tracks. This program is more reliant on equipment than any other piece of the NASCAR schedule. That means his success is more closely tied to GEM than Sadler’s or Carpentier’s might be. His best speedway tracks are Atlanta, Michigan, and California, but he is also a front runner at Bristol, Darlington and especially Richmond. Since his rookie year, Kahne has also been one of the best qualifiers in Cup. That continued in 2007 when he scored two poles and had an average start of 14.3. A reasonable prediction for Kahne is 1 win, 9-10 top 5’s, and 12-14 top 10’s. Matching his 6 win season of two years ago will be tough, but he will be in the mix for a Chase spot. The keys will be the team’s speedway program and how Kahne does on the other tracks like short tracks and road courses.