Trouble in Turn2

I just finished watching Days of Thunder, and despite knowing almost everything that would happen, I still found it more enteraining than Sunday’s Best Buy 400 at Dover. Officially the race had 17 green flag lead changes. In reality it was a three car race with most lead changes (9) only occurring during green flag pit stops. Essentially Kyle Busch’s pit crew beat Carl Edwards’ and Greg Biffle’s. By lap 160 Jeff Gordon made his way into fifth place and the top five never changed again. One point to make was that the lack of excitement didn’t have very much to do with the lack of lead lap cars, it was simply a race with long green flag runs and not much passing. There were times when cars would ride nose to tail for 20 or 30 laps with neither able to pull away. Busch summed up the lack of excitement this way,

“It wasn’t I guess all that exciting. You know, that’s a product of what we’ve got going on here. We’re working on trying to make our cars go as fast as they can. The faster we make them go, the more aero-dependent they’re going to be. The more you put out on the racetrack, the more the air is going to get screwed up. You know, we’re all fighting for space. We’re all fighting for air. We’re all fighting for everything. Sorry it wasn’t exciting.”

It’s not Busch’s fault the race was boring, nor is it the teams’ fault. With the CoT still in its infancy, there will continue to be snoozers like we saw at Dover. It’s not pretty to watch, but expect more of the same as teams, Goodyear and NASCAR all get a grasp on the car.

The one nugget of excitement came on lap 19 when several top cars collected after Elliott Sadler and David Gilliland made contact. First Tony Stewart, then Denny Hamlin and finally Bill Elliott and Scott Riggs all took turns diving on the hog pile in turn 2. As you might expect, the reactions were varied. First Stewart:

“I take 100% responsibility — it’s my fault for being even anywhere close to Elliott (Sadler). If I’m within a half a lap of him, I expect that to happen. It’s my fault — I’m the one that hit him. When I hit him it caused all the guys behind us to wreck. So it’s my fault.”

Obviously there is still some residual ill-will from Stewart for the wreck at Darlington. Stewart has had wrecks in three of the last five races, and last week had a win snuffed out by a flat tire. Common sense says Stewart will rebound during the summer months, but he had similar problems in 2006 and failed to make the Chase. It’s definitely something to watch.

Meanwhile teammate Denny Hamlin received a lot of heat for plowing into the wreck late. It did appear that other drivers managed to slow down in less time than Hamlin, but Elliott and Riggs were even further behind Hamlin and still couldn’t stop in time.

“It’s so tight off of turn two right there. I feel bad for Elliott (Sadler). I came piling in there way late. I had the 43 (Bobby Labonte) right on my bumper trying not to get hit from him. When I heard wreck off turn two I immediately was on the brakes. It’s just these cars don’t stop as well as they had in the past. Luckily, I wasn’t the last one. It looked like guys even behind me piled in there. It’s just part of the race track.”

While I find it a little easy to blame the track and the heavier car, something obviously caused problems for numerous cars in the accident. After his incident last weekend in the Nationwide race, Hamlin is probably not a popular driver with many fans, but it’s not really fair either.

Other Notes

Nice runs by Dave Blaney, Travis Kvapil and Juan Pablo Montoya. All scored top 12’s. Meanwhile Sam Hornish Jr finished 19th to return to the top 35. The finish was his second top 20 and moved him all the way to 33rd in the owners standings. Meanwhile thanks to a steep 150 point penalty earlier this week and a bad wreck on Sunday, Scott Riggs and the #66 car fell outside the top 35. With the other Haas car missing another race, things are getting tough in a hurry for Haas-CNC.

Fox did a good job this year with their NASCAR coverage (although I could have passed on the letter grades feature today). Now it’s on to TNT. At least Kyle Petty will keep things fresh.

Kasey Kahne won the All-Star race thanks in part to the fans. He finished 5th in the Sprint Showdown, but made the feature event from the fans voting him. I’m sure some people will say he didn’t deserve to make the race, but so what? Involving the fans in an exhibition race is the whole point. All-Star games in every sport see players that don’t deserve to make it, but wind up in the starting lineup every year. Give Kahne credit for parlaying his spot into a giant check (the more I think about it, the more I want to win a physicaly giant check. Even if it’s for $5, I want a big check.).

Kahne’s win also highlights how the track changes from day to night. He didn’t run particularly well in the qualifying heat but was far better when the track was cooler. It’s hard to cull a lot of information from this weekend and apply it to the Coca Cola 600, but that is one point to remember. In a 400 lap race we will see cars struggle in the first 100-200 laps but then look a lot better in the second half of the race.

-Dale Earnhardt Jr made an interesting observation about that relating to the 600.

I’ll tell you one thing I was surprised about was how much my car changed from the start of the run to the end of the run in 25 laps. I would go from real tight to real, real loose and we’re going to have to run 60 laps in the 600 on gas and you will be hanging on for dear life. It should be a real tough, tough 600. Probably tougher than any other one any of us has ever ran.

Long green flag runs at intermediate tracks haven’t been kind to the CoT. Hopefully the Lowe’s test will help, but as Junior noted things could get dull this weekend.

• If Joe Gibbs Racing is going to have a race where they lose three engines during the weekend, it may as well be an exhibition race. Of course if you’re going to pick a weekend to experiment with engines, well this is the weekend for that too. According to Denny Hamlin, that’s exactly what they did.
  

  “This is definitely experimental ‘All-Star only’ racing. We came out here with our guns loaded and unfortunately our gun went off a little bit before the end of the race. It just wasn’t enough. We knew this engine wasn’t going to go 500 miles. It was built for just a few more laps past 100 and it just didn’t make it.”

• Thumbs up for AJ Allmendinger for winning the undercard race, the Spring Showdown. After really struggling to get his NASCAR career on track, he finally had a positive breakthrough.

  I feel like I won the Daytona 500. Nobody understands how much this means to me after what we went through as a team. It may be just an All-Star Showdown, but this means the world to me. These guys — everybody at Red Bull Racing Team and Toyota — they’ve stuck behind me.

  After Red Bull replaced Allmendinger with Mike Skinner for five races, it was reasonable to believe that Allmendinger may not get another chance in the #84. Obviously 40 good laps won’t mean much in a points paying race, but it is proof that he’s capable of running much better than he’s shown so far. He did score his career best finish last fall at Lowe’s (15th). The fact that he also accepted 100% of the blame for bumping Elliott Sadler into the wall also shows he’s learning the political side of NASCAR too.

• I’m all for new and creative ideas, but I don’t think the burnout contest is one of them. Maybe I’m in the minority, but there’s not much variety in burnouts. Obviously it’s different being at the race and watching, but for a televised event it’s pretty lame.

  It’s kind of like where the NBA dunk contest is now. All the good, creative dunks have already been done, so everything is pretty vanilla.

For more racing news, check out Racing Nation

Elevators and Imitators

Eleven races into the season is almost one third of the way home. Some teams are exceeding expectations while others are underachieving. That’s obvious enough. While the points show one picture, the driver ratings can reveal some differences. A driver with a high driver rating shows

Carl Edwards is 4th in driver rating but sits in 7th place in the standings. Obviously without the 100 point penalty Edwards would be 4th in points. Jeff Gordon is 10th in points but owns the 7th best driver rating. A mechanical failure at Daytona and a nasty crash at Las Vegas erased otherwise strong runs at these tracks. It highlights how damaging engine failures and bad finishes can be to a driver’s points. Outperforming your points total is a good sign for the rest of the summer. I fully expect both Edwards and Gordon to climb higher in the standings and score more top 5’s.

Jeff Burton is second in the points but 8th in driver rating. It’s pretty clear that Burton’s great start is due more to compiling points and avoiding trouble than it is having fast, dominant cars. Avoiding trouble is obviously a testament to Burton’s skill, but it’s harder to sustain than simply running in the top five every week. Every driver will lose an engine, get caught up in a wreck or get a flat tire at the wrong time. Making your own luck by having top five cars every week is a lot more reliable than trying to outlast everyone and sneaking into the top ten or top five.

Elevators: Drivers with the biggest positive differences between points and driver rating
Casey Mears +6
Elliott Sadler +5
Dave Blaney +5
Matt Kenseth +4

Imitators: Drivers with the biggest negative differences between points and driver rating
David Gilliland -7
Clint Bowyer -6
Jeff Burton -6
Bobby Labonte -5
Travis Kvapil -4

The numbers give a decent snapshot of who is running well compared to finishing well. Maybe over or underachieving is the wrong word. Drivers deserve credit for passing as many cars as they can, with whatever method they can. The only point of these numbers is to get a glimpse of which drivers are capable of a strong summer or who might be ripe for a tumble.

Things can obviously change. The CoT is far from perfected, so there is a great opportunity for teams to find new advantages. Burton and RCR could suddenly find something in a test that pushes their cars closer to the front. Or maybe, in the copycat world of NASCAR, everyone might simply catch up to Gibbs and Roush and even the playing field. Younger drivers will likely gain more confidence and experience which could lead to better results. An older driver might get a new crew chief that rejuvenates a team. A team that suffers from bad luck suddenly feels the need to change personnel, resulting in even worse performances. There are tons of variables that could change the numbers.

So who do you think could climb the ladder or go down the chute this summer?

Races at Richmond are awesome. They’re short (in both time and track size), at night, feature competitive action and often offer up good theater in the way of feuds. Need more reasons?

What happened last year

It rained. As a result the race was moved from Saturday night to Sunday afternoon and Jimmie Johnson exercised his Richmond demons to win the first of his season sweep at the track. Hendrick cars took three of the top four spots in the spring race. Of course the bigger news that week was Dale Earnhardt Jr putting in his seven month notice that he was leaving DEI. That set off an onslaught of speculation about where the high-profile driver would wind up after the season. Sound familiar?

Quick Notes

• Tony Stewart has 12 top 10 finishes in 18 career Richmond starts. He also has three wins, although none since 2002.

• Until last year Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon both struggled at Richmond. Then Johnson won both races and Gordon scored two fourths. Gordon had not finished better than 31st in his previous four tries and Johnson had only one other finish (2nd in 2004) inside the top 10.

• Casey Mears is the only current Cup driver with more than four starts without a top ten at Richmond. Mears has ten starts with a best finish of eleventh in 2006.

• The first Richmond race was held in 1953 won by Lee Petty. 27 cars started the 200 lap event. The race was run on dirt until 1968.

• Richard Petty has the most victories with 13. AJ Allmendinger is tied for fewest with zero.

• Tim Richmond won the 1986 race at Richmond. (Note: I failed to mention last week that no driver named Talladega has ever won a race at that track.)

• Carl Edwards gets his crew chief Bob Osborne back this week after a six race suspension. Edwards was fast at Phoenix before a pit road problem. He was also fast at last fall’s Richmond race before he blew the engine.

Four to watch

• Kyle Busch He has five top fives in six Cup starts at Richmond. He had the dominant car in the fall 2006 race before Kevin Harvick pipped him with two laps left.

• Denny Hamlin: It could be a wheelbarrow race in Blacksburg, but as long as it featured Denny Hamlin in the state of Virginia, he’d be a threat to win.

• Kevin Harvick: Just like Hamlin takes to any race in the Old Dominion state Harvick thrives on the flat tracks. It could be a speedskating race in Vermont…you get the picture. Owns the best driver rating over the last six races at 121.2 and owns one win.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr Apparently Junior hasn’t won a Cup race in a while. He has won the last three spring races falling in even years. That stat means nothing in regards to Saturday night. His 3 wins, 7 top 5’s and 9 top 10’s does, though.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

A weekly glimpse at my picks from the Fantasy NASCAR game. If you haven’t signed up yet, a new segment is starting soon (like four races soon) which means you have a clean slate.

• Champ: Kurt Busch Busch won the 2005 fall race and also owns the fifth best driver rating (100.4) over the last six races.

• Chump: Clint Boywer So far this year Bowyer has been a compiler instead of a front runner. He can’t keep that up forever without experiencing some bad luck.

• Sleeper: Elliott Sadler No one really strikes me as a great choice among the sleepers this week. Sadler has the skill, experience, and just maybe the car (ran very well at Phoenix) to land in the top 15. Be sure and check out all of the Sleeper Analysis at One Bad Wheel

Who Will Win?

So far this season Kasey Kahne has been solid nearly every week. Richmond is the site of his first win and even in his worst years, he has run well at Richmond. It’s something about Richmond and drivers with open-wheel backgrounds like Kahne, Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman.

When someone does something different than the majority, the result is either stupidity or brilliance. For Chad Knaus and Jimmie Johnson, the result at Phoenix was brilliance. They parlayed a flawless fuel strategy into their first win of 2008.

What was everyone else doing? Not only did no one else risk making it to the end, but everyone except Carl Edwards made the same call, two tires and a splash of fuel, when pitting. One that is boring, but more importantly it won’t change the race outcome at all. If your car isn’t faster than another on the race track, you have to gamble with strategy if you hope to changed the outcome. Two tires isn’t a big advantage with less than ten laps left, and can even disrupt the car’s handling. Plus it takes longer than splashing enough fuel to make it to the end.

Three of the top four cars, Mark Martin, Denny Hamlin and Dale Earnhardt Jr, all made the same two-tire call. Hamlin finished third but Martin and Earnhardt Jr both lost several spots due to their pit stops. Their stops also paved the way for Johnson.

Another reason Johnson made it on fuel was because no one else in the top five tried to make it. It’s a simple, but sometimes overlooked factor in the fuel mileage game. When everyone else pitted, Johnson had a ten second lead over second place Clint Bowyer, meaning he could afford to slow way down over the final five laps. He had to race himself and not really worry about other cars. Johnson didn’t have to turn laps the same as the other leaders, only go fast enough to hold off the second place car. And make it to the end of the race. Had another car stayed out, Johnson couldn’t have coasted.

To that vein, I don’t know why Martin and the #8 team try to make it on fuel. Both Martin and the crew of the #8 team have a collectively long winless drought that could have been quenched at Phoenix. The car is safely inside the top 35, Martin isn’t vying for a Chase berth and it’s really hard to win Cup races. Martin had the lead entering the pit stop cycle, why not go for it? The exasperated (or more exasperated than usual) look on Martin’s face after the race said he wished he had the chance to try.

The final factor at play for Johnson’s win was that he simply had a great car. It handled well meaning he used less brake and also avoided feathering the throttle in the turns, thus saving fuel. Everything played out perfectly for the #48 team, but had anyone else in the top 5 stayed out, pitted for fuel only or Johnson’s car wasn’t handling so well the outcome would have been different. /p>

Other Notes and Thoughts

• Did anyone else notice that Fox interrupted Yankees-Red Sox to catch the entire NASCAR race? Sure it’s April, but I thought that was interesting what Fox thought about the race.

• Crew chief Tony Eury Jr has been a target for criticism this year for some of his in-race decisions and adjustments. Saturday night the #88 car’s strategy was sound, the car was fast all night and Dale Earnhardt Jr held the lead with 50 laps left. The team was in position to win a race when it mattered. They didn’t win, but that happens all the time in Cup. The fact that they are consistently in that position means they will eventually win a few.

• There are certain drivers that you can’t help pulling for. Whether it is Kyle Petty to make races, or Mark Martin to win a race there are some guys that just deserve to do well. Elliott Sadler is one of those drivers in my eyes. His situation stems from someone who just can’t catch a break. He was a regular threat for a top ten from 2003-2005 and then the bottom fell out at Yates Racing. Then he switched to Evernham where he walked into disarray. He finally had a good car at Phoenix, starting on the outside pole and running in the top ten. Then he loses an engine. I can’t help but feel his disappointment.

• What’s wrong with Hendrick? Oh, are we finally done with that question?

• For the people that think the CoT is a disaster and races like Atlanta and Texas were boring, keep this in mind. Phoenix was on the dull side last year but Saturday night was pretty exciting and featured good action all over the track. That provides hope for other tracks once the comfort gets there for the drivers and crew chiefs.

For more NASCAR opinion visit Racing Nation.

Seize the DEI

DEI announced several organizational changes this week. The company has lost several long time employees in recent months, but some of the announcements are notable.

One of the biggest moves involves Kevin Buskirk. He will now head up research and development and is widely considered one of the best engineers in the garage. He was a key piece in Elliott Sadler winning two races and making the Chase in 2004, and also got a lot of credit for RCR’s resurgence last season. He left RCR earlier this season, returned to Yates only to quickly leave for DEI in July.

One of the other moves involves the revolving door to the crew chief’s office of the #15 car. Doug Randolph joins the #15 team as the crew chief after the 2007 season ends. Driver Paul Menard has remained on the same team since 2004, but Randolph will be his fourth different crew chief since last season. Dan Stillman was replaced with Tony Eury Sr, then Eury left for JR Motorsports, and now Randolph will replace Dave Charpentier. Charpentier will fill the technical director position vacated by Steve Hmiel. Will Randolph make a difference or is it another case of simply shuffling things around for change’s sake.

Et tu Bruton

Bruton Smith announced over the weekend that he has purchased New Hampshire raceway.. The immediate reaction was that Smith would take a race date away from Loudon and shuttle it to his Las Vegas track. It’s no surprise, he’s never hidden that ambition. On one hand Las Vegas is a huge destination for lots of fans. It makes a lot of sense to have two races in a place that A) fans want to go to and B) has desirable and consistent weather. There are several tracks that currently have two spots that don’t deserve a second date (one rhymes with Kokomo). The flipside of Smith and SMI taking over is the Northeast NASCAR fans. Not everyone can or wants to fly to Vegas to see a Cup race. It also reduces the chances for other tracks or potential sites like Kentucky, New York, Canada, Denver or the Pacific Northwest to get a track and/or Cup race. Nothing will happen until at least 2009, but it’s a story worth watching.

Movin’ on Up

Petty Enterprises are making like the Jeffersons and moving on up to the eastside. After nearly 60 years in Level Cross, NC, the Pettys are moving their shop closer to Charlotte in Mooresville. The positives are obvious. A bigger shop can better accommodate the newer technology that is now a requirement for any Cup team. A location closer to almost every other NASCAR team also aids in recruiting and retaining personnel. Of course the loss of history and Richard Petty’s birthplace certainly makes it bittersweet for the first family of stock car racing. I’ve said it numerous times, but anything that helps Petty Enterprises stay competitive is in the best interest of anyone involved in NASCAR, including fans.

Haas-CNC Money Factory

Finally, owner Gene Haas was sentenced to two years for tax fraud. He also had to pay $75 million in fines and back taxes. Think about that for a second. That much money could almost build two rolling wind tunnels. All that money and Haas cars still can’t crack the top 20 on a weekly basis.