Trouble in Turn2

Alan Tays of the Palm Beach Post wrote something about Momentum. He must not be a very good writer to agree with me and think that Kasey Kahne and the #9 team worked hard for their wins. After all, it’s a proven fact that Kasey Kahne won three races because the fans love him and bestowed confidence upon him.

Enjoy the weekend and give a big bearhug to your father.

I’m always a little confused about Michigan. The track is wide and features several grooves, so drivers can find a place where their cars work best. Because it’s wide, that also means the passing can be rather easy. So is it a fun race because drivers like it or a dull one because the passing is so easy there aren’t great battles for position?

One thing I know is that when it follows Pocono it feels like the race flies by. It’s kind of like working out at the gym next to a big, ripped guy. Your lack of size is amplified in that setting. Pocono is a race that feels like you could watch the Ten Commandments, run some errands and then paint your bedroom before the checkered flag flies, while Michigan feels like it’s over before you can finish your chips and salsa.With a tendency for long green flag runs, the race often boils down to the final pit stop or fuel mileage.

Track Fun Fact of the Week: According to wikipedia (and who would question something on the internet?), Michigan International Speedway also hosts the Michigan High School cross country championship, presumably in the infield. Imagine how discouraging it would be to be running along, feeling good about your pace and then you look over and see Greg Biffle turn a few hot laps at 190 mph.

What Happened Last Year

Carl Edwards continued Roush Racing’s utter dominance of Michigan. Martin Truex appeared to have a better car in the final segment but couldn’t quite pull in Edwards. The win was the first for Edwards in 52 races, and was especially pleasing to his motorcoach driver Tom “Yeti” Giacchi. He had made a deal with Edwards in 2006 that he wouldn’t shave until Edwards won a race.

Notes and Fantasy Tips

• Roush dominates here. Roush has won ten races and their current drivers are good (Carl Edwards 1 win, 4 top 5’s), better (Greg Biffle 2 wins, 4 top 5’s) and best (Matt Kenseth 1 win, 7 top 5’s). Ford and Dodge have split the two Michigan wins each of the past five seasons.

  Meanwhile a Chevrolet (or Pontiac for that matter) has not won at Michigan since 2001 when Jeff Gordon took the checkers. There isn’t a great reason why the bowtie hasn’t won, just a fluke thing that happens in sports sometimes.

• Sunday is Father’s Day. Jame McMurray and Crown Royal are running a special paint scheme to tribute McMurray’s dad along with a personalized message:

  

  So McMurray isn’t big on words, but the message is clear. Many parents sacrifice a lot for their kids and it’s exponentially true in an expensive, traveling sport like auto racing.

Champs, Chumps and Sleepers

Champ: Matt Kenseth Kenseth is outstanding at Michigan (11 top 10’s in 17 starts and a 9.7 avg finish). He won the 2006 August race in dominant fashion. Kenseth got out of the gates slowly this year, but is catching up to his teammates.

Chumps: Jeff Burton Burton has avoided trouble and scored a lot of top tens this year. RCR’s intermediate program is a behind Roush, Gibbs, Hendrick, Evernham and even Penske. Burton will struggle this weekend.[Click for more Chumps notes]

Sleepers: Casey Mears Over the last six Michigan races, Mears has the 11th best driver rating (89.0) and 1 top 5 and two top 10’s. At some point he has to run well, right? Right? [Click for more Sleepers notes]

And the winner is…

The easy method would be to draw a Roush-Fenway-Varitek(the joke never gets old to me) driver’s name out of a hat. In that case Todd Kluever is your man. Apparently my Roush Roster is two years old. So Plan B shows that Jimmie Johnson is the man this weekend. I feel it’s also time to institute the “Dale Jr or Kyle Busch could win on any given Sunday” caveat. One is winless and the other has four wins, but both have run in the top five almost every week and led enough laps to prove that a victory from either would not register a surprise.

“Oh, yeah. I don’t know what happened. The 99 wasn’t very good last night, he was so-so and we were really good, and then the weather just swapped it.”
–Greg Biffle on the difference from Sunday to Monday.

It’s funny how cars can change overnight with different track conditions. Some of the changes were subtle. Jeff Gordon and Kyle Busch were probably the two fastest cars on Sunday night, but not quite as good on a sunny day. Carl Edwards was showing signs of speed when the rain came last night, but was faster than everyone during the day. Other drivers like Clint Bowyer and Kurt Busch were completely lost during the day. So what else happened?

• For the majority of Speedweeks, all the praise was saved for Hendrick and Gibbs. Last week the big story was how Dodge was finally ready to compete. Now headlines will note how the Roush cars are the ones to beat on the downforce tracks. Next week it will be another team or manufacturer, so let’s all keep things in perspective. It’s very early in the season.

• I wonder how drivers like Dale Earnhardt Jr, Reed Sorenson and Denny Hamlin felt when they woke up today? Usually when you wreck and have a poor finish, at least it’s over when by the next day and you can look towards the next weekend. Today they all had to get back in battered cars with the knowledge that they wouldn’t improve their finishes at all. It’s probably even worse considering how good the weather and track were on Monday morning and realizing that the wrecks wouldn’t have happened today. Well, that and seeing Casey Mears and Sam Hornish have the chance to go to Vegas early.

• It wasn’t a huge success, but the two Yates cars had nice runs. Travis Kvapil used a two-tire pit strategy to sit in 2nd place for over 12 hours. So eleven and half of those hours were during a red flag, but Kvapil actually did have a nice run going before he suffered damage on his car. He spent 71 laps inside the top 15 before his accident. Teammate David Gilliland finished a solid 17th. Excluding restrictor plate races, Gilliland only had 4 top 20’s all of last year. Getting support from Roush-Fenway Racing at least has Yates pointed in the right direction.

• It’s interesting that the big fear was that this was the year of Toyota’s big breakout. Take out the Gibbs cars and Brian Vickers and the Camrys look pretty normal. It’s still up to the teams to build good handling cars and have good drivers. None of the three MWR cars finished on the lead lap, Dave Blaney finished in the 30’s for the second straight race, and JJ Yeley had engine problems and finished 29th. Denny Hamlin has also crashed in the first two races and sits 31st in the standings.

• After the race, Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson had some interesting things to say about the CoT on intermediate tracks. First Gordon:

  I was very curious and anticipating a little bit more action out there. You know, right now I think what you’ve got is you’ve got some guys that are really hitting it with this car on this track and some that weren’t. So it kind of spread the field out a little bit.
  Plus, you know, track position on these big tracks is extremely important. Jimmie and I are both fortunate to capitalize on the points from last year. But going forward, we’re going to have to really make sure we qualify good.

  Interesting. It sounds a lot like the old car, which as everyone knows wasn’t always conducive to great racing. That point is emphasized by Johnson’s quote.

  The other thing, I noticed the cars were much more sensitive. Racing nose to tail, you’d catch someone, get to a spot, difficult to run behind him. If the guy in front of you was smart, just look in the mirrors, he could run your line, screw you up, you’d lose 20 car lengths. Seemed to me like the aero was more important in this car than the other car. It’s still the first downforce race we’ve had with it. I’m sure we’ll all make it better. As Jeff said, track position was extremely important even more so than in the past.

  As Johnson admits, it’s the first race and things will probably improve. But what does it say when the two of the top three finishers of the race aren’t convinced that this car will improve the actual racing.

• One lingering thought about yesterday’s rain delay. A lot of sports will show classic footage to pass the time. Fox and Speed are in the same ownership family, how about rolling out some old races? If all else fails get Junior to host and just have an impromptu Back in the Day session.

• The top nine spots in the Nationwide race went to Cup drivers. Tenth went to Stephen Leicht in the #21 Childress car. He’s only running a limited schedule, but Leicht has already won a Busch/Nationwide race and is in one of the top rides in the series. This is his third season in the second tier of NASCAR, but he is still only 21. Keep an eye on him this year and beyond.

• We couldn’t even make it two races before the first Silly Season rumor dropped. According to Yahoo, Bobby Labonte would move to Richard Childress Racing in a new fourth car in 2009. Lee Spencer disagrees. I won’t go so far to say Labonte can’t or won’t wind up at RCR, but consider this: One of the articles quotes Kevin Harvick talking about expanding to a fourth car and hints at Labonte rumors. Spencer’s article has a direct quote from Childress denying the rumor. Things change with time, but I’m more inclined to believe Spencer, especially with her track record and the fact that Yahoo has been erroneous in the past (Jr and Truex to drive for Jr Motorsports, anyone?). I don’t like rumors, especially in February. Who knows what will happen in 36 races?

For more racing news and opinion, check out Racing Nation.

Carl Edwards

Carl Edwards rebounded from a sluggish 2006 to return to Victory Lane, secure a Chase spot, and to remind people why he is one of the most promising drivers in the sport. Expect more of the same in 2008.

Edwards posted 3 wins, 10 top 5’s and 15 top 10’s, with an average finish of 13.9. His numbers look a lot like 2005. The difference is that 2007 was a lot tougher for Edwards. In 2005 Roush Racing was the dominant force and the wins and top 5’s came rather easy, even for someone in their first full Cup season. 2007 saw Roush-Fenway come out of the gates slowly. Edwards couldn’t just hop in his car and rely on having one of the best cars. His results were based more on running well and holding on for good finishes.

He also won his first Busch title in comfortable fashion. It’s amazing that running an extra 35 races a year– sometimes in different cities than the Cup race—that it doesn’t seem to affect Edwards’ Cup runs. He is like Kevin Harvick in the fact that they just enjoy racing.

One thing that helped Edwards last year was the full time return of crew chief Bob Osborne. The two had success in 2005 and that chemistry returned in 2007 in a similar way.

A lot was made of his little dust-up with teammate Matt Kenseth after the Martinsville race. Part of the reason it was so surprising was his feint punch at Kenseth and the accompanied smug grin. As a rookie, Edwards was the “aw shucks, I’m just happy to be here mister.” People saw the Martinsville incident as out of character or that Edwards has changed, but Edwards is a fierce competitor and was upset.

Roush-Fenway’s intermediate program is one of the best in the sport and the cars should return to the front of the field at 1.5 and 2 mile tracks. Roush-Fenway might have started slowly on the CoT, but by the end of the season they were back to being one of the top teams in NASCAR. A big move was promoting crew chief Robbie Reiser to GM. Reiser has long been considered one of the top crew chiefs in the sport and now all five Roush teams will have access to his skill and knowledge.

The organization is well rounded at most tracks, but the cars really shine at the high speed 1.5 and 2 mile tracks. Michigan and California are especially strong for the team (15 combined wins).

For Edwards personally, he has a very concrete strength. In 2007 he won at Bristol and Dover, plus a Busch win at Nashville. There is something about that unique surface for Cousin Carl. Of course he runs pretty well at a lot of other tracks too. Darlington, Texas, Atlanta, and Michigan all fall in Edwards’ wheelhouse. Edwards is good enough to make the Chase and win 2-3 races each year, 10 top 5’s and 15 top 10’s.

A few weeks ago I wrote a list of ten fearless predictions. Fearless as they were, they were also written with my tongue lodged in the side of my cheek. It’s easy to hide behind a satirical list, but it’s time for a list of things that could seriously happen this year, and we’ll start with the boldest one. [Tease: There is something pretty cool at the bottom that I can’t take credit for. So if you were thinking of navigating away because you think this/I is/am lame, at least scroll to the bottom of the post for something entertaining.]

1. Jeff Gordon will barely make the Chase. Gordon had a phenomenal 2007 season. 30 top 10’s, 6 wins and only one DNF are incredible numbers and it will be hard to duplicate. Part of it is simply regression to the mean. The other part is that Gordon typically faces more DNF’s (9 in 2005, 7 in 2006) and that will drain points. In recent years Gordon and the team have also been slow to make, or adapt to, adjustments. In 2005 with the rise in popularity of coil-bound setups, Gordon languished all summer as the team struggled to get Gordon comfortable on intermediate speedways. If Gordon has anything close to a weakness it would be his intermediate speedway program. With a brand new car at this type of track, there’s a very legitimate chance that it takes Gordon a while to get up to speed.

   It’s not simply citing 2005 either. Last year in a spectacular season, Gordon and Steve Letarte were slow to change their gameplan in the Chase while Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus were winning 4 straight races with a more aggressive approach. That cost Gordon the title last year. Gordon is strong at enough tracks to make the Chase, especially a field of 12, but if it’s more of a struggle than normal look no further than DNF’s and how he runs at intermediate tracks.

2. Regan Smith will win Rookie of the Year. Smith got a gradual introduction to the Cup series last year thanks to his apprenticeship with Mark Martin. He does a good job of keeping the car on the track. DEI also provides the top equipment among the companies fielding rookies in 2008. The other rookie candidates will all take more time to adjust to stock cars, not to mention racing at the Cup level. Sure Juan Pablo Montoya surprised last year, but he was in a different class. 2008 will also mark only the second season since 2000 that a rookie doesn’t win a race.

3. Sonoma and Watkins Glen will be the most exciting, and competitive races of the year. Watkins Glen was arguably the most unpredictable and exciting race of 2007 and the road courses will only get better this year. With the infusion of open wheel drivers, the starting field could feature a dream lineup of top road course drivers like Juan Pablo Montoya, Dario Franchitti, Sam Hornish Jr, AJ Allmendinger, Jacques Villeneuve, Patrick Carpentier, Boris Said, Ron Fellows, Scott Pruett. Now factor in the old guard featuring drivers like Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Robby Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman and Jamie McMurray and you have a lot of drivers that could light up the serpentine courses (and their tires). The heavier CoT can also accommodate more bumping without the cars losing control. That means beating, banging, flipping (birds, not cars), shouting, shoving, and for fans excitement.

4. Toyota will win 6 races. At first glance that number sounds like a lot, but think about it. Tony Stewart has never won less than two races and 7 out of 9 seasons he’s won at least three. Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch also figure to win one or two races each. Gibbs alone will approach the 6 win total. Further down, Brian Vickers and Dave Blaney both had several good wins in 2007 despite the weak Camry engine. It’s not crazy to think either driver could find victory lane. In fact Vickers had arguably the best car at Charlotte until he lost the power steering late and Blaney finished 3rd at Talladega.

5. Kyle Busch will be Gibbs’ most successful driver. When Shrub was with Hendrick, the team had Cup champion past (Jeff Gordon), present (Jimmie Johnson) and future (Busch). Busch’s move to Gibbs doesn’t change that the fact that he will win a Cup championship. It probably won’t happen this year, but he is excellent at nearly every type of track. His 97.8 driver rating was 5th best and in his fourth Cup season, he is hitting his stride. This isn’t a knock on Tony Stewart, who should have a great year, it’s just a statement of how good Kyle Busch will be in 2008.

6. A team will alter their full schedule plans Last year it was Ginn, this winter Morgan-McClure quietly closed their doors, and this year could take its toll on another team. With so many teams with high profile sponsors all vying for the same real estate in the 43-car field, simple math shows there isn’t enough room for everyone. As a result some sponsors will not want to hang around if they can’t get exposure for their brand. That will force a team to either dig deep in their own pockets or scale back. Prior to last week this could have easily been Robby Gordon Motorsports, but he is probably safe thanks to Gillet-Evernham’s shelter.

   Now the most likely teams look like BAM, Furniture Row, and Front Row motorsports. They are each alredy on shoestring budgets, but the bigger teams are not immune either. Haas-CNC, Yates and BDR all face sponsorship hurdles and that might result in skipping a few races during the season. Like Metallica says, Sad but True.

Something Cool

I got an email out of the blue yesterday from someone named Ryan Parker. He writes topical sports songs and his latest is sort of an ode to NASCAR and the 2008 season. It’s really well done and he told me it took about 8 hours for the whole process. You can see all of his songs at his website.

It seems like Jamie McMurray enters each season with the hopes of a breakthrough season. Is he finally ready for a breakthrough? Or has he simply reached the peak of his skills? First some numbers.

His first three Cup seasons he spent with Chip Ganassi Racing (with Felix Sabates-Target-Kitchen Sink-Motorsports). Ganassi’s equipment was widely recognized as second rate compared to the powerhouse teams like Hendrick, Gibbs and Roush Racing. The logic said if McMurray can do a good job with mediocre resources, he would be great at one of the top teams, like Roush Racing. He’s now entering year three with a top team and the results have stayed the same. Excluding his excellent 2004, his numbers are the same from year to year.

The confounding part is that McMurray is truly talented. He is equally adept at road courses as he is plate races or short tracks. In fact he has scored at least one top ten at every Cup track except Phoenix. Some of his best tracks are difficult tracks like Darlington, Dover and Bristol. Yet somehow McMurray struggles to consistently run in the top 5 and top 10. **It’s not even a matter of running well and finishing poorly. He simply has too many races where the car doesn’t run well. He has 703 career laps led over six seasons. That total is fewer than four drivers led in 2007 alone.

This preview isn’t meant to simply knock McMurray. He had a lot of good runs in 2007. The highlight of the season was his win at the summer race at Daytona. It was a dramatic finish that gave McMurray his first win since that shocking victory in 2002 when he filled in for an injured Sterling Marlin at Charlotte. The Daytona win was a reminder of McMurray’s talent. Despite his numbers at plate races, he is one of the better drivers at Daytona and Talladega. He is always near the front of the pack and works the draft well.

McMurray’s greatest weakness is his lack of consistency. After his Daytona high point, he finished 26th or worse in 6 of the next 7 races. Any Chase notions were quickly dashed. He finished on the lead lap 17 times.

Entering the 2008 season, McMurray needs to find a comfort level in the CoT. His average finish in the old car was 20.7 compared to 24.0 in the CoT. Obviously the CoT is the exclusive car model of 2008, so McMurray and crew chief Larry Carter must impove their approach to the boxier CoT. The good news is that McMurray has all the tools to improve his status. He has the deep resources, equipment and information that Roush Racing provides. His driving talent is proven, especially at tracks like California, Martinsville, Texas and Charlotte. He also retains crew chief Carter. It’s that kind of consistency that can only help the #26 car. Can he make the Chase? He certainly has the potential, but it’s hard to see it happening. Look at the drivers that made the Chase last year. There are probably only three or four that he is potentially better than, and then include other drivers like Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Kasey Kahne, and suddenly the Chase looks like a very crowded, and unlikely option for McMurray.

In 267 laps there were only about 30 where there was any mystery to the outcome of the race or the Championship. Matt Kenseth dominated, led 213 laps and closed out his time with crew chief Robbie Reiser by winning the race. Jimmie Johnson led the first lap, backed off and sat comfortably in the top ten for the rest of the afternoon, leaving little suspense to the Chase. For Johnson all the heavy lifting was done in the past four weeks when he created the necessary separation from Jeff Gordon to do some light lifting of the trophy on Sunday night.

There is no need to say anything else about Johnson. He had a phenomenal year, and while you can debate the legitimacy of the Chase, everyone enters the season with the same rules and Johnson played the game the best. The bigger issue is how the Nextel Cup can be more like the Craftsman Truck Series. They race on most of the same tracks, have the same manufacturers and many of the same owners supply the top teams, but there is a huge gap in the competition level between the two series. I don’t have an answer, but imagine if fans could look forward to each weekend seeing the best drivers in NASCAR’s top series and knowing that more often than not, the finish would be close, the racing would be good and the points would remain close the entire season. NASCAR can talk about marketing globally and finding new fans, but when they figure out how to get a better product on the track on a regular basis, new fans will figure out what the big fuss about.

Other Thoughts

• Jeff Gordon ran well, especially after the sun went down. The finish was his 30th top ten of the season, which is simply amazing. Only six races outside the top ten, and two of those races were finishes of 11th and 12th. He also led laps in 23 races and had 21 top fives. The season was an amazing one, but unfortunately it might be considered in the category of the 2001 Seattle Mariners. A record setting year that didn’t end with a championship.

  Gordon’s post race comments were interesting too. “Not saying they didn’t deserve any of them, but they definitely got the wins at a crucial time when we got a little conservative. We didn’t get the cars to where they needed to be. And those guys beat us, that is the bottom line.”

  Gordon’s strategy was sound. Finish in the top ten every week, win a few races and force everyone else to get aggressive. Unfortunately for Gordon this year it wasn’t enough.

• I used to think Homestead wasn’t worthy of the final race of the season, but the racing has really improved. Had someone else had a car equal to the #17 it may have shown more. The few times that Martin Truex Jr or Denny Hamlin were within striking distance of Kenseth, the racing was good and passing was tough. I would have liked to see how it would have been if someone else was in the same ballpark as Kenseth.

• I happened to catch a little of the Cup Happy Hour coverage on Saturday. ESPN did a feature on how they do the Draft Tracker. I didn’t realize there was actual telemetry equipment installed on every car. This poses a problem. If teams are able to gain access to this information during the race, what kind of advantage would that be? Is this the first step towards an increased reliance on in-car technology like Formula One?

The in-race reporter idea is a good one, but ESPN could take it even further. Follow that driver’s in-car camera for 10-20 laps at a time, play the best of their in-car audio, especially when they discuss changes to the car. TNT did it with Kyle Petty as a one time deal, but a network should do it on a weekly basis next year.

• ESPN’s pit reporters are one of the strengths of their broadcast. It’s good when they tell the audience something they didn’t already know, it’s great when they tell us something we would never know. Example, Dave Byrnes relayed a story about the #42 team and how they intentionally had Juan Pablo Montoya practice driving a loose racecar. Montoya had a nice run and ran in the top five for a good part of the race before settling for 15th.

• It was neat to see how excited Robbie Reiser was after the race. In his last with Matt Kenseth, he built a bullet. Now Reiser can focus all of his time and energy on the Car of Tomorrow for all of the Roush/Fenway(Yates) cars. It’s too bad Kenseth won’t be able to use his bullet next year.

  Speaking of the old cars, if I had some room in the driveway I’d contact a team about how to get me a car. Imagine the drivers in the ARCA and Busch East Series. They are the lucky benefactors of cars and chassis as a result of millions of dollars in research rendered obsolete by the country’s top racing series.

Well that’s it for NASCAR in 2007, but while the drivers head to their lakes, condos in Mexico or their local dirt tracks, I will be more like a crew member and head right back to work tomorrow. I have some plans for the offseason and nothing changes, just more of the daily stuff that makes this blog the number one search result on Google for the keywords “Trouble in Turn 2″.

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